Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[JosephStalin]

Two mi-24s reaching Belgorod is a huge fuck up on the part of Russian air defence, no two ways around it. Suspect NATO may have identified the gap the Ukranians exploited for them.

I'll go even further. Don't think the Ukes are running their war from Kyiv at all. Suspect they are actually running it from Poland, hand-in-hand with US/NATO advisers/access to releasable US/NATO intelligence and real-time tracking of Russian aircraft, etc., in addition to coordinating US/NATO logistic support. Communications with Kyiv and, I would think a contingency headquarters in Lviv/various field commands is through Western-made secure communications links.

Have no proof of any of this, just my suspicions. With Kyiv's vulnerability the Ukes would have had to have a contingency headquarters, and wouldn't be surprised to learn there'd been contingency preparations for an operations center in Poland. Ya, there's more than a grain of truth to the saying NATO is in a proxy war with Russia. And NATO has learned a great deal from this war, in many ways.

 

[Richardface]

I'll go even further. Don't think the Ukes are running their war from Kyiv at all. Suspect they are actually running it from Poland, hand-in-hand with US/NATO advisers/access to releasable US/NATO intelligence and real-time tracking of Russian aircraft, etc., in addition to coordinating US/NATO logistic support. Communications with Kyiv and, I would think a contingency headquarters in Lviv/various field commands is through Western-made secure communications links.

Have no proof of any of this, just my suspicions. With Kyiv's vulnerability the Ukes would have had to have a contingency headquarters, and wouldn't be surprised to learn there'd been contingency preparations for an operations center in Poland. Ya, there's more than a grain of truth to the saying NATO is in a proxy war with Russia. And NATO has learned a great deal from this war, in many ways.

Would just add that the Chinese no doubt have a lot of invited observers at STAVKA and are learning a lot about how NATO fights too

 

[naaaaiiiiillllll!!!]

I'll go even further. Don't think the Ukes are running their war from Kyiv at all. Suspect they are actually running it from Poland, hand-in-hand with US/NATO advisers/access to releasable US/NATO intelligence and real-time tracking of Russian aircraft, etc., in addition to coordinating US/NATO logistic support. Communications with Kyiv and, I would think a contingency headquarters in Lviv/various field commands is through Western-made secure communications links.

Have no proof of any of this, just my suspicions. With Kyiv's vulnerability the Ukes would have had to have a contingency headquarters, and wouldn't be surprised to learn there'd been contingency preparations for an operations center in Poland. Ya, there's more than a grain of truth to the saying NATO is in a proxy war with Russia. And NATO has learned a great deal from this war, in many ways.

If I was a betting man, I would say they're operating out of Lviv or some other cities in the west close to Poland, but not IN Poland proper. That way, NATO could supply and communicate with the Ukrainian command but still have plausible deniability. If they're in Poland proper, that feels way too bold for NATO, even with the general bloodthirsty attitude the West has right now...

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Video of the two Mi-24s flying low away from the scene of the crime
View attachment 3132404

A lot of Ghost of Kiev tier stories now floating around about Ukrainian special forces having stolen Russian helis for the raid and destroying multiple targets and stealing Russian equipment

For posterity's sake:

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

I'll go even further. Don't think the Ukes are running their war from Kyiv at all. Suspect they are actually running it from Poland, hand-in-hand with US/NATO advisers/access to releasable US/NATO intelligence and real-time tracking of Russian aircraft, etc., in addition to coordinating US/NATO logistic support. Communications with Kyiv and, I would think a contingency headquarters in Lviv/various field commands is through Western-made secure communications links.

Have no proof of any of this, just my suspicions. With Kyiv's vulnerability the Ukes would have had to have a contingency headquarters, and wouldn't be surprised to learn there'd been contingency preparations for an operations center in Poland. Ya, there's more than a grain of truth to the saying NATO is in a proxy war with Russia. And NATO has learned a great deal from this war, in many ways.

I would say that Russia is too, but they're so corrupt they probably will make the same mistakes again, I doubt even Putin could fix the problem, it would take a wholesale purge of Russian military officers and quartermasters and rebuilding it from the ground up to do so.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Would just add that the Chinese no doubt have a lot of invited observers at STAVKA and are learning a lot about how NATO fights too

Third party observers in war is a time honored tradition going back centuries. Several South American countries had observers with the nazis in ww2 for example, and several European powers had observers on both sides of the Russo Japanese war.

 

[Wy4M]

Video of the helicopter crash
View attachment 3132459

Edit - ZOLLEX - TWIST. I guess that's the Ukrainian WD40?
View attachment 3132471
Edit 2: Kot
View attachment 3132484 View attachment 3132483

Translation of post: "Published footage of a survey of one of the survivors of the crash of a downed helicopter of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Main:
- a platform for loading in the port of Mariupol,
- four helicopters, each of which loaded 14-16 people;
- the wounded were evacuated from "Azov" (banned in the Russian Federation), the National Guard, the State Border Service, etc.;
- officers of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine participated."

https://t.me/vorposte/17830

"The second survivor was a senior lieutenant of the Main Intelligence Directorate with the call sign "Belmak". He is an airborne instructor. Repeatedly participated in the ATO. In the helicopter, he sat behind a machine gun and was supposed to provide fire cover."

https://t.me/vorposte/17829

 

[JosephStalin]

If I was a betting man, I would say they're operating out of Lviv or some other cities in the west close to Poland, but not IN Poland proper. That way, NATO could supply and communicate with the Ukrainian command but still have plausible deniability. If they're in Poland proper, that feels way too bold for NATO, even with the general bloodthirsty attitude the West has right now...

Indeed, that's quite possible, too. One day when the book(s) about this war are written will be interesting to see how close we were to figuring out the exact setup.

 

[JosephStalin]

Would just add that the Chinese no doubt have a lot of invited observers at STAVKA and are learning a lot about how NATO fights too

And the Chinese would also learn a lot about how screwed up things are on the Russian side.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

And the Chinese would also learn a lot about how screwed up things are on the Russian side.

A pity that they're the least likely to ever let a book be released about it. A detached view of the Russian side from someone who was there would be very nice to have.

 

[Wy4M]

translation: "Another batch of captured armor from the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured during the fighting in the city of Izyum."

https://t.me/vorposte/17862

 

[Richardface]

If I was a betting man, I would say they're operating out of Lviv or some other cities in the west close to Poland, but not IN Poland proper. That way, NATO could supply and communicate with the Ukrainian command but still have plausible deniability. If they're in Poland proper, that feels way too bold for NATO, even with the general bloodthirsty attitude the West has right now...

I'd normally agree but there are reports there were two French intelligence agents on those helicopters sent to rescue Azov leadership from Mariupol, and that there are a bunch of "foreign instructors" trapped in the Azovstal steel plant, which is why Macron was so weirdly obsessed with pushing for a sea evacuation route out of Mariupol. Macron also just fired his head of intelligence and the US has reported some of its citizens have mysteriously been captured in Mariupol. So NATO seems to be ok playing dangerous games putting its active personnel inside a warzone with a nuclear power.

Sauces:

https://nitter.net/Cyberspec1/status/1509712693237755904#m

https://nitter.net/The_Real_Fly/status/1509668328788402183#m

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/france-reportedly-fires-military-intelligence-074941252.html

 

[Richardface]

And the Chinese would also learn a lot about how screwed up things are on the Russian side.

How would you reconcile the idea that Russia's campaign is going badly with the fact that Chinese support for Russia has gotten stronger since it began?

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

translation: "Another batch of captured armor from the Armed Forces of Ukraine captured during the fighting in the city of Izyum."
View attachment 3132521View attachment 3132522View attachment 3132523

https://t.me/vorposte/17862

I swear, when the war ends and everyone has time to check the serials, somebody's going to find a vehicle that changed hands five or six times.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

I'd normally agree but there are reports there were two French intelligence agents on those helicopters sent to rescue Azov leadership from Mariupol, and that there are a bunch of "foreign instructors" trapped in the Azovstal steel plant, which is why Macron was so weirdly obsessed with pushing for a sea evacuation route out of Mariupol. Macedon also just fired his head of intelligence and the US has reported some of its citizens have mysteriously been captured in Mariupol. So NATO seems to be ok playing dangerous games putting its active personnel inside a warzone with a nuclear power.

Sauces:

https://nitter.net/Cyberspec1/status/1509712693237755904#m

https://nitter.net/The_Real_Fly/status/1509668328788402183#m

https://ca.news.yahoo.com/france-reportedly-fires-military-intelligence-074941252.html

I'm going to remain skeptical of those reports until I see bodies or live prisoner's tbh. I could definitely see it being true, but I think we all know how valuable "unconfirmed reports" are by now.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

How would you reconcile the idea that Russia's campaign is going badly with the fact that Chinese support for Russia has gotten stronger since it began?

First thought off the top of my head: the longer Russia keeps beating its head into a wall, the better a position the Chinese will be in for whatever alteration to the deal they end up deciding to inflict on Russia.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

First thought off the top of my head: the longer Russia keeps beating its head into a wall, the better a position the Chinese will be in for whatever alteration to the deal they end up deciding to inflict on Russia.

The Chinese have learned well from the example of the British, right down to 99 year leases on ports.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

Video claiming to be from Belgorod showing a big queue for gas.

 

[Spicey McHaggis]

Video claiming to be from Belgorod showing a big queue for gas.
View attachment 3132558

Looks like Russian license plates at least from what I can see from google.

 

[A_throwaway_name62919]

I'll go even further. Don't think the Ukes are running their war from Kyiv at all. Suspect they are actually running it from Poland, hand-in-hand with US/NATO advisers/access to releasable US/NATO intelligence and real-time tracking of Russian aircraft, etc., in addition to coordinating US/NATO logistic support. Communications with Kyiv and, I would think a contingency headquarters in Lviv/various field commands is through Western-made secure communications links.

Have no proof of any of this, just my suspicions. With Kyiv's vulnerability the Ukes would have had to have a contingency headquarters, and wouldn't be surprised to learn there'd been contingency preparations for an operations center in Poland. Ya, there's more than a grain of truth to the saying NATO is in a proxy war with Russia. And NATO has learned a great deal from this war, in many ways.

I'd be skeptical of them operating out of Poland. For starters Kiev's vulnerable, but hasn't really been at risk of quickly falling for a while. They presumably have some suitable bunkers there to operate out of. Even if Kiev's not desirable to keep operating from, I'd expect them to have a more secure location in the country to exercise command and control from before leaning on the goodwill of a neighboring country. Trying to operate out of Poland would be a nightmare to get lines of communication to their forces setup, especially without being discovered. Particularly with the propaganda mileage they've been getting in giving the impression that Zelensky and the rest of the government are still in Kiev.

So I'd wager they're either operating out of their equivalent of secure bunkers for the white house and pentagon, or their operating out of whatever their secure fallback position is. Setting up a secure line between that and NATO advisers in Poland should be simple enough.