- Joined
- Dec 28, 2014
You have incredible optimism for Roe v. Wade considering the last time it was upheld, the Court had a very different composition, and now there are easily five on the Court who have signaled they would reverse it, either explicitly in dissenting opinions or impliedly. I'm not sure even Roberts could save it.Roe vs. Wade will never be overturned as long as the US remains a Union. Don’t fear monger.
At the very least, it's going to take yet another haircut.
Arguably, RvW was already overruled years ago by repeatedly and significantly narrowing its scope and abandoning the arbitrary first/second/third trimester framework that was one of O'Connor's central justifications for the case and the right it purported to recognize. Without that, it's been a hollowed out shell since.
O'Connor herself later had grave reservations about her own invention, stating that the Roe framework is "clearly on a collision course with itself" and noted: "As medical science becomes better able to provide for the separate existence of the fetus, the point of viability is moved further back toward conception."
I doubt you will see anything as dramatic as some federal law outlawing abortion entirely in all circumstances immediately or even ever, but with the foundation of Roe already crumbling and at least five votes for doing away with it or at least limiting it, it's not going to look like it used to once SCOTUS is done with it this time.
Roberts may be working out some kind of backroom deal where he assigns writing the opinion to one of the moderates in the majority and offers to join the majority if the ruling isn't absolutely batshit, and I think he might be hostile to setting off a firestorm by explicitly overruling the case.