Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Feline Supremacist]

I am saying they don't have the right KIND of refineries, nor do they have the transportation capacity to move the refined product to where its needed. Russia does not make enough aviation fuel for what it needs. It also does not have enough over land transport capacity to move vehicle fuel from the refineries to the front. let alone to civilian gas stations. Russia's fuel refining economy is designed solely for export, not for supporting war time tempo domestically.

What is your source for this very specific knowledge of Russia's refining and transportation capabilities? The rear end product of the bovine in your pfp?

 

[Fcret]

What is your source for this very specific knowledge of Russia's refining and transportation capabilities? The rear end product of the bovine in your pfp?

Russian oil production and refining has had international involvement since the 90s. The inner-workings of it are not exactly a mystery to anyone who works in the industry.

 

[Duke Nukem]

How could you be fooled so easily? Roach always wins
View attachment 3137287

That's not exactly the 90s revival I was hoping for, but I'll take it!

The United States should have never let the Soviets take Berlin

Honestly I don't know if there was really much of a choice, after all, it's not easy to say no to 11 million soldiers marching westward. Maybe Patton was right, though.

It's a misleading number because the Russian government has judicially stamped out the un-controlled opposition over the course of two decades while being marred in fraud. Anytime regional elections don't align with United Russia's blessings the political bodies get incarcerated. Even if it's an accurate rating, we are speaking of war times. People tend to rally behind their government during war. Zelensky's soared ratings are an example of that.

I'm amazed that the Biden approval rating is as high as 40% but that's the "official" polls, reality is probably much different.

You also make guns, good ones even.

AR cucks can't stand the fact that there's other choices on the market, especially the Kalashnikov and its various models. Hell it doesn't even need cleaning to function most of the time.

Probably the fact that under Putin Russia’s life expectancy went from 65 to 75, the Russian economy grew massively, malnutrition and hunger became virtually unheard of, and people get left alone by the government unless they fuck with it(a major improvement from the soviet days).

Putin took power in an absolutely broken country and oversaw its recovery. He even rehabilitated it’s national self-image by fighting and winning proxy wars with America. There’s a reason he isn’t hated in Russia, despite his corruption.

But Poopin Bad because CNN said so

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Russian oil production and refining has had international involvement since the 90s. The inner-workings of it are not exactly a mystery to anyone who works in the industry.

Hence my astonishment some people claim Russia can't refine or move it's own petroleum.

 

[Fcret]

Hence my astonishment some people claim Russia can't refine or move it's own petroleum.

No one is claiming it can't. What the claim is is that its refiners can't keep up given the sanctions buttfucking their entire logistical chain.

Obviously, given enough time and financing Russia can probably start meeting its fuel targets again. But no one really knows how long that will take. It's not an easy problem to solve.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Relatedly, depending on who's counting today marks either the third or fourth time the Russian army is supposed to have run out of ammo, food, and supplies. I look forward to reading about a total Ukrainian victory 24 hours from now.

Oh, is it time for my audit already? Well, let's dig up what I said.

I'll go ahead and throw the bucket of cold water on this one. Anyone memeing the countdown as Russia running out of everything is doing it wrong and I will join in laughing at them, because the original 10-day countdown was a prediction from a retired 3-star (making the usual concession that he could be wrong), headed to the point where Russia could no longer press the attack effectively. A historical comparison would be when Germany's fuel reserves ran out in the Winter of '41-'42, and from there on was only able to provide supply to move one of its three army groups at any given time. Word on /k/ is that Moscow's own estimate is that they can keep the offensive up to May 9th. My own prediction is that unless the Russians find a way to unfuck their situation, mid-April looks to be when a combination of supply issues and Ukrainian mobilization bogs them down, and if they haven't fixed their shit by mid-June, they're going to be down to a table full of options they'd really rather avoid taking.

Oh, I see I was calling mid-April, but oh well, what's two more weeks between friends, especially when the Russians have just folded an entire front because their supply issues have left them with no other options than to run away and pretend they meant to do that the whole time. But that's fine, I'm sure the cauldron will snap shut any minute now, and the weeks of delay have actually been the Russians waiting for their diversionary attack to end so that they can pick up the troops rotating in from Kiev as well.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

No one is claiming it can't. What the claim is is that its refiners can't keep up given the sanctions buttfucking their entire logistical chain.

Obviously, given enough time and financing Russia can probably start meeting its fuel targets again. But no one really knows how long that will take. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Are you referring to domestic targets? Do you believe Russia cannot supply itself with its fuel needs? What sanctioned materials prevent it from doing so?

 

[mr.moon1488]

https://twitter.com/Gugugugagaga3/status/1510465289992867840

 

[Richardface]

No one is claiming it can't. What the claim is is that its refiners can't keep up given the sanctions buttfucking their entire logistical chain.

Obviously, given enough time and financing Russia can probably start meeting its fuel targets again. But no one really knows how long that will take. It's not an easy problem to solve.

Ok, so if we combine your and mindlessobservers comments the Russians will soon/are currently out of fuel because their refineries, due to sanctions, are unable to access the vaccuum tubes they need to run the complex process of creating advanced fuels like kerosene. We shall see i guess.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I mean, it's incredible what nations can do in an emergency to scrounge for resources.
In the spring of 1945 Germany was officially out of fuel. There was no import, the reserves were empty. And yet they still sent jets up into the air until the very last day. For example an entire airwing with multiple Me262s under Hans-Ulrich Rudel flying westwards to land at an US airfield to avoid the Soviets.

But no fuel reserves means rationing. Scrounging for fuel. In 1945 there are numerous stories of the Luftwaffe taking fuel from grounded civilian aircraft, relying on inefficient production of substitute fuels. Scavenging whatever allied equipment they could get their hands on. Flying with so little fuel that most of the return trip is a glide.

So when they say that they're running out it doesn't mean that every drop is gone. But that supply is either limited or nonexistent, and that they will likely have to start rationing and Scavenging for fuel, limiting their capability in the air

There's also a big difference between enough fuel to fly sorties while you're being invaded from both fucking sides versus enough to continue to bomb your neighbor.

Russia will most certainly have enough fuel to keep up domestic basic needs. But will it have enough few to continue an offensive war for several more months?

 

[mindlessobserver]

What is your source for this very specific knowledge of Russia's refining and transportation capabilities? The rear end product of the bovine in your pfp?

The fact that a huge chunk of Russia's production capacity is not even Russian. Its Kazakh, Uzbek or Azerbaijani, And those sources certainly "refine". For domestic use. In the case of the Kazakh's, to point that the peasants revolted and Putin had to send in troops after prices went up for the price of shitty fuel produced. And all this production is either transported by Pipe or Train. Russia has precious little over land transport capacity. What they do have has been destroyed by Ukraine.

The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine

The Russian army never had enough trucks to sustain a fast-moving invasion force in Ukraine. The problem has gotten a lot worse now that the Ukrainians have destroyed at least 485 of them — and Russia is going to the desperate length of pressing a motley array of civilian trucks into action.

www.forbes.com

https://technotrenz.com/news/after-spending-billions-on-cutting-edge-weapons-russia-is-hampered-by-a-truck-shortage-in-ukraine-1705618.html

I will also point out that the needs of war for highly specialized product like Aviation Fuel are huge. Russia expected this war to be over two weeks ago. They have not retooled their economy for fighting a protracted conflict.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Ok, so if we combine your and mindlessobservers comments the Russians will soon/are currently out of fuel because their refineries, due to sanctions, are unable to access the vaccuum tubes they need to run the complex process of creating advanced fuels like kerosene. We shall see i guess.

Russia still makes vacuum tubes lmao I know this because I have two old radios and need to source tubes.

 

[Fcret]

Are you referring to domestic targets? Do you believe Russia cannot supply itself with its fuel needs? What sanctioned materials prevent it from doing so?

Refiner runs out of storage for gasoline. Now it must stop taking shipments of crude. The pipelines that ship the crude must be depressurized and now the oil field, which relies on having its output directly fed into the refiner must now shutter operations. The well must be secured so production can safely stop. You're now looking at months to restart the well once refining capacity becomes available along with inspections of the pipelines, re-pressurization, and for the refiner to retool to whatever product mix is being demanded.

The entire system is built around stable supply and demand at all levels and for product to be consumed immediately as it becomes available. If it fucks up at any one point, then it can take months to reconfigure it. This is why oil shocks have such long-lasting effects.

You don't just turn it off and turn it back on again. If demand and supply become even a little mismatched, the entire system seizes up.

 

[Richardface]

The fact that a huge chunk of Russia's production capacity is not even Russian. Its Kazakh, Uzbek or Azerbaijani, And those sources certainly "refine". For domestic use. In the case of the Kazakh's, to point that the peasants revolted and Putin had to send in troops after prices went up for the price of shitty fuel produced. And all this production is either transported by Pipe or Train. Russia has precious little over land transport capacity. What they do have has been destroyed by Ukraine.

The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine

The Russian army never had enough trucks to sustain a fast-moving invasion force in Ukraine. The problem has gotten a lot worse now that the Ukrainians have destroyed at least 485 of them — and Russia is going to the desperate length of pressing a motley array of civilian trucks into action.

www.forbes.com

https://technotrenz.com/news/after-spending-billions-on-cutting-edge-weapons-russia-is-hampered-by-a-truck-shortage-in-ukraine-1705618.html

I will also point out that the needs of war for highly specialized product like Aviation Fuel are huge. Russia expected this war to be over two weeks ago. They have not retooled their economy for fighting a protracted conflict.

Buddy you've been given multiple sources showing that Russia possesses the worlds third biggest refining capacity within its borders. You're being wilfully retarded at this point.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

The fact that a huge chunk of Russia's production capacity is not even Russian. Its Kazakh, Uzbek or Azerbaijani, And those sources certainly "refine". For domestic use. In the case of the Kazakh's, to point that the peasants revolted and Putin had to send in troops after prices went up for the price of shitty fuel produced. And all this production is either transported by Pipe or Train. Russia has precious little over land transport capacity. What they do have has been destroyed by Ukraine.

The Russian Army Is Running Out Of Trucks For Its War In Ukraine

The Russian army never had enough trucks to sustain a fast-moving invasion force in Ukraine. The problem has gotten a lot worse now that the Ukrainians have destroyed at least 485 of them — and Russia is going to the desperate length of pressing a motley array of civilian trucks into action.

www.forbes.com

https://technotrenz.com/news/after-spending-billions-on-cutting-edge-weapons-russia-is-hampered-by-a-truck-shortage-in-ukraine-1705618.html

I will also point out that the needs of war for highly specialized product like Aviation Fuel are huge. Russia expected this war to be over two weeks ago. They have not retooled their economy for fighting a protracted conflict.

I don't think the Glorious Leader sent the Red Army to put down the kulaks over petrol tovarishch, although Forbes would like you think he did.

 

[A_Callow_Youth]

Buddy you've been given multiple sources showing that Russia possesses the worlds third biggest refining capacity within its borders. You're being wilfully retarded at this point.

Russia also has the world's second-largest military, but there are factors keeping them from actually using it in this war. Same principle here, if I'm reading the arguments right.

 

[RussianBlonde]

Lol don't know about that but he's posted some pretty creepy ass shit.
View attachment 3138497

https://twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1509857340228526087?cxt=HHwWjoCznYvQi_QpAAAA

Even by troon standards this just comes off as really bizarre to me. There's a war going on around and you know people are dying right around the outskirts of the city. This just seems to really juxtapose the bizarre gleeful smiling shit.

This is giving me strong, and disturbing, Pennywise Clown vibes.

Creepy fucking troon with dead eyes:
https://mobile.twitter.com/SarahAshtonLV/status/1510222936376057856

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Refiner runs out of storage for gasoline. Now it must stop taking shipments of crude. The pipelines that ship the crude must be depressurized and now the oil field, which relies on having its output directly fed into the refiner must now shutter operations. The well must be secured so production can safely stop. You're now looking at months to restart the well once refining capacity becomes available along with inspections of the pipelines, re-pressurization, and for the refiner to retool to whatever product mix is being demanded.

The entire system is built around stable supply and demand at all levels and for product to be consumed immediately as it becomes available.. If it fucks up at any one point, then it can take months to reconfigure it. This is why oil shocks have such long-lasting effects.

You don't just turn it off and turn it back on again. If demand and supply become even a little mismatched, the entire system seizes up.

They're running under capacity though, and in anticipation of the current situation for some time before war broke out. I'm not a Russiaboo but I did occasionally buy things from the Russian Federation and the rumblings of war and supply issues were a thing in late 2021. So this was already factored in.
still kicking myself over not getting that Kommandirske watch in December.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Russia also has the world's second-largest military, but there are factors keeping them from actually using it in this war. Same principle here, if I'm reading the arguments right.

Basically. I am saying Russia is not refining the right kinds of fuel in the quantities required, and cannot transport to the war zone what it is refining correctly. But apparently the fact and logic that Russia can refine omg millions of tons of bunker fuel and cooking gas means infinite MIG air operations hundreds of kilometers away from the nearest pipeline.

Many such stories. Its been the story of this entire war tbqh. Russia has the winning numbers on paper, but for some damn reason they can't translate those numbers into the field. Its a mystery guys.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

I don't think Russia will run out of fuel, but if the Ukrainians hit a couple more fuel depots on the Russian side, they will be in significant trouble. Russia is relaying much, much, more on heavy vehicles than Ukraine is, and those things are thirsty fuckers alone, much less thousands of them.

That's the big issue with the massive mechanized force Russia is using, Ukraine's backbone is their infantry force, Russia's backbone is their mechanized force, and mechanized forces, especially heavy ones, require obscene amounts of fuel, there's a reason most armies don't have that many tanks, they were and continue to be a logistical nightmare.