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- Sep 24, 2014
What's Russia's plan?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread
- Thread starter L50LasPak
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- Jan 6, 2020
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- May 25, 2020
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- Jul 18, 2017
You know that plan to denazify and demilitarize Ukraine? Well lol, we trolled you! Russia so smart! We sent four whole army groups into Northern Ukraine and got our bitch (friend) Belarus sanctioned too hell and back just to convince Ukraine to not defend Mariople and Kherson!
Jajah, Russia so smart. We now withdraw in good order with half our invasion force leaving behind mass Graves and more tanks and APCs then Ukraine had before the war started. We also bombed the shit out of the Russian majority city of Kharkiv just for the lolz. To make Ukraine fall for cunning plan. Lol we trolled you.
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- Jan 6, 2020
2 more weeks to flatten the slavs.
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- Aug 7, 2020
For a brief period during the blm riots, i developed a faith that relevant news can be crowdsourced in efficient manner unlike the traditional media practices.
During the rittenhouse trial, you guys started showing the true dumbfuck nature by directly quoting live streamers instead of using the sound judgement. Still, that thread was readable enough.
But after this one, it is 100% confirmed that the blm thread was just a fluke. You are monkeys with typewriters who will churn out page after page still saying nothing. There's literally no difference in reading this and sorting twitter by new
During the rittenhouse trial, you guys started showing the true dumbfuck nature by directly quoting live streamers instead of using the sound judgement. Still, that thread was readable enough.
But after this one, it is 100% confirmed that the blm thread was just a fluke. You are monkeys with typewriters who will churn out page after page still saying nothing. There's literally no difference in reading this and sorting twitter by new
DumbDude42
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 12, 2019
the difference is that here i can call you a nigger without some janny permabanning my account for it
nigger
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- Jul 18, 2017
This thread has been 100% accurate if you follow the Pro Ukraine kiwifarmers.
Smity Werbenjagermanjensen
kiwifarms.net
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- Jul 12, 2018
Maybe, I wouldn't be surprised if this thing isn't really still going on by May and has entered a Korean War like stage where it's become a stalemate.
That's actually a good point against the whole "It's a feint" thing, Russian troops, missiles, and aircraft in the North using Belarus as a staging area got them sanctioned almost as hard as Russia was, and Belarus was already a lot weaker than Russia from every point of view, don't know if Russia would want their last actual remaining ally in Europe to get economically ruined just to commit to a feint assuming Ukraine isn't hit with Regime Change which is looking more and more likely by the day, will be interesting to see what happens in Belarus' future.
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- Jan 6, 2020
I thought for a while the ISW (Institution for the study of war) map was in favor of Ukraine since it is a western thinktank, but then the Russian MoD released their map and it was practically the same. The Russian shills were posting inflated maps in favor of Russia. As far as I am concerned the loss report the Kyiv Independent puts out daily is somewhat accurate just based on the raw war footage the Ukrainians are putting out, 10,000-30,000 casualties (this includes non-lethal but debilitating injury) seems within reason, so lets call it 10,000 to low ball even still that is staggering losses for 41 days of fighting. I am starting to feel badly for the Russians at this point. 41 days and they will finally soon take a coastal city where they had the most troops, air, ground and naval support. Fuck how is Kharkiv still around and Coach Red Pill still allowed to post videos that place is on the fucking Russian boarder.
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- Aug 26, 2018
Thanks for posting in a thread you don’t like to let everyone know how much you don’t like it. Your review has been noted.
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- Jan 10, 2019
From an australian news site.
The first part of the article reads like this:
This shit is getting ridiculous!
- Joined
- Jul 18, 2017
Nothing good. Belarus is as "Russian" as Ukraine is. This entire war is a desperate attempt by putin to restore the Russian Empire. The problem is the Empire died in 1917 when the commies killed the Tsar. The Romanov dynasty can claim rulership over Ukraine and Belarus.
Putin cannot. Honestly Ukraine is in a position to make a great power move here. Why stop at the Belarusian border? What Belarus has done, allowing its territory to be used as an invasion route for Russia was an act of war. Instead of sending the Kiev front to Kherson, they should keep going.
The Ukrainian Army should March on Minsk, overthrow the puppet Lukashenko and totally destroy the 41st Russian Guards Army
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- Jul 25, 2019
Do not tempt this timeline.
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2020
The Russians seem to be struggling at the moment I hope Ukraine and the west dump as much hurt on them as possible for fucking around and finding out. Imagine fucking with the "Globohomo" It's like fucking with God LMAO.
Climaxing Sunset
kiwifarms.net
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- Sep 27, 2021
The Ukrainians have a near decade long experience of being battle hardened
Honestly I want Russia to lose but I also hate Zelensky as well. It’d be funnier if Zelensky and Jewtin were both removed and a nationalist Ukrainian gov rose up, and defeated all the crypto commies in power.
Narcotics
kiwifarms.net
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- Feb 2, 2022
I asked a pro-ukranian guy about his thoughts on 1) russia saying the bucha pics are fake and 2) zelensky wanting to get russia out of the security council. He surprisingly replied with a whole wall of text, there's some points i don't agree with in his reply but it's still an interesting read.
After this comment he repplied to another guy saying that the actions of ukraine will lead to more escalation, he replied with this:
Russia hasn't provided any real evidence of fakery. The bodies can be seen in satellite images lying in the same position for many days before the Russians retreated. The images are very distressing. Just watched them myself. So when it comes to the changing position of Ukraine and other countries, leaders of countries are human too. I think a lot of this is emotional reaction to what they saw. And that includes Zelensky's own emotional reaction. You saw that in his face when he first saw the situation on the ground for himself in Bucha.
https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk/status/1510975889588293639
In tonight's Context on the BBC, a Ukrainian MP Ina Sovsum was on talking about the images at about 16 minutes in here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/.../the-context-with-christian...
Her interview can help you understand the very human reaction of Ukrainian MPs to the images. It will be the same for the negotiators who have to talk to their Russian counterparts about a peace settlement.
It's different from previous atrocities e.g. in the Donbas region with the Chechen fighters on both sides - because of the pervasiveness of them.
We have had many reports ever since a week or two into the invasion.
For the first few days the Russians expected to be welcomed and treated the Ukrainians with respect. Some of the soldiers may well still be doing so in some parts of Ukraine.
But these images with streets with dead bodies lying there, we now know for many days from satellite images, the Russians just left them lying. So, soldiers were there for weeks just leaving those bodies lying - and people having to walk around them. One photo of someone recently shot on a bicycle with their dog still alive sitting next to the dead body and the bike.
I don't know what it means for Crimea and Eastern Donbas because those areas presumably haven't had these things happen to them.
But within Ukraine, I think the Ukrainians are needing to process this to decide where to go next with the negotiations.
They have to negotiate, but the negotiations will be on different terms because of the images.
Russia claims the images are faked. They may believe some of their own propaganda - and if so it is impossible for them to understand how these images have changed how the Ukrainians approach the negotiations because from their side they don't think they are real (assuming he is genuine in not believing them). Or the Russian foreign minister knows they are real and is lying.
Ordinary Russians and some Russian members of parliament will most likely for now think the images are faked. But such things can't be hidden for ever.
Either way, whether the Russian foreign minister is lying or believes his own propaganda - Zelensky did say he has to continue with the negotiations, that negotiations are the only way to end this war.
But - and I know it's an emotional reaction - but having seen the images I know why they reacted that way - they feel they can't concede to Russia in the same way as they were going to before they had this direct evidence of what was going on and presumably still is going on in Russian controlled territory.
So - no, it's not a ploy.
Of course the images have to be verified - but some have already been seen by reporters on the ground who drove over from Kyiv - it's not that far. There are large numbers of people have seen them and nobody is saying they are fake. There would be people by now who detected the fakes and it would be a major scoop for a news agency to prove they were fake especially any news media critical of NATO or Biden or Zelensky - and there just isn't anything like that. They can't be fake.
There will be experts checking them. China has asked to wait for them to be verified - but I think there is little doubt that they will be verified.
Genuinely before this the Ukrainians were much more prepared to compromise. It is because we are humans and react emotionally and aren't just Vulcan like creatures of pure logic.
It mightn't change much in their final demands. We have to see. But they need to process them first. One thing, very unlikely they concede any Ukrainian territory from before the previous lines of contact to Russia after this.
On the security council, there have been calls before for Russia to be removed from the Security Council - previously under the argument that Russia is not the same as the USSR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Reform_of_the_United_Nations...
The latest suggestion from Zelensky is to dissolve itself. I don't think he means to dissolve the entire UN but rather, to dissolve the UN security council.
However, I would have thought that Russia would have veto power to prevent the security council dissolving itself too. So I don't think that is a serious proposal. I have tried a search to see if anyone has spelt out a way of the security council dissolving itself without Russia's approval but it doesn't seem to be there.
The security council is rather archaic. After all what is special, for instance, about France or the UK? You can understand the US and China. And the USSR when it was a member. But Russia is far smaller than the USSR.
There have been many calls to reform the security council but they all meet this obstacle that any member of the security council can veto any attempt to reform it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Reform_of_the_United_Nations...
So - I don't know if it can be reformed.
But it is reasonable for Zelensky to suggest it is reformed that it expels Russia or that it dissolves itself as a way to make a political point. Politicians often do that, make a request they know can't and will never be fulfilled as away of making a political point - his point here is that the Security council is no longer upholding international law on sovereignty of nations and so should reform and expel a member that doesn't follow its own founding principles - or else - dissolve itself.
https://twitter.com/Kateryna_Kruk/status/1510975889588293639
In tonight's Context on the BBC, a Ukrainian MP Ina Sovsum was on talking about the images at about 16 minutes in here.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/.../the-context-with-christian...
Her interview can help you understand the very human reaction of Ukrainian MPs to the images. It will be the same for the negotiators who have to talk to their Russian counterparts about a peace settlement.
From Ukraine's point of view they now feel as an emotional reaction that they can't cede any of their land to Russia because these things have happened in areas under Russian control. They feel they just can't let Russia continue to control those regions of Ukraine and continue to do these thigns to their people anywhere in former Ukraine.
It's different from previous atrocities e.g. in the Donbas region with the Chechen fighters on both sides - because of the pervasiveness of them.
We have had many reports ever since a week or two into the invasion.
For the first few days the Russians expected to be welcomed and treated the Ukrainians with respect. Some of the soldiers may well still be doing so in some parts of Ukraine.
But these images with streets with dead bodies lying there, we now know for many days from satellite images, the Russians just left them lying. So, soldiers were there for weeks just leaving those bodies lying - and people having to walk around them. One photo of someone recently shot on a bicycle with their dog still alive sitting next to the dead body and the bike.
I don't know what it means for Crimea and Eastern Donbas because those areas presumably haven't had these things happen to them.
But within Ukraine, I think the Ukrainians are needing to process this to decide where to go next with the negotiations.
They have to negotiate, but the negotiations will be on different terms because of the images.
Russia claims the images are faked. They may believe some of their own propaganda - and if so it is impossible for them to understand how these images have changed how the Ukrainians approach the negotiations because from their side they don't think they are real (assuming he is genuine in not believing them). Or the Russian foreign minister knows they are real and is lying.
Ordinary Russians and some Russian members of parliament will most likely for now think the images are faked. But such things can't be hidden for ever.
Either way, whether the Russian foreign minister is lying or believes his own propaganda - Zelensky did say he has to continue with the negotiations, that negotiations are the only way to end this war.
But - and I know it's an emotional reaction - but having seen the images I know why they reacted that way - they feel they can't concede to Russia in the same way as they were going to before they had this direct evidence of what was going on and presumably still is going on in Russian controlled territory.
So - no, it's not a ploy.
Of course the images have to be verified - but some have already been seen by reporters on the ground who drove over from Kyiv - it's not that far. There are large numbers of people have seen them and nobody is saying they are fake. There would be people by now who detected the fakes and it would be a major scoop for a news agency to prove they were fake especially any news media critical of NATO or Biden or Zelensky - and there just isn't anything like that. They can't be fake.
There will be experts checking them. China has asked to wait for them to be verified - but I think there is little doubt that they will be verified.
Genuinely before this the Ukrainians were much more prepared to compromise. It is because we are humans and react emotionally and aren't just Vulcan like creatures of pure logic.
It mightn't change much in their final demands. We have to see. But they need to process them first. One thing, very unlikely they concede any Ukrainian territory from before the previous lines of contact to Russia after this.
On the security council, there have been calls before for Russia to be removed from the Security Council - previously under the argument that Russia is not the same as the USSR.
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Reform_of_the_United_Nations...
The latest suggestion from Zelensky is to dissolve itself. I don't think he means to dissolve the entire UN but rather, to dissolve the UN security council.
However, I would have thought that Russia would have veto power to prevent the security council dissolving itself too. So I don't think that is a serious proposal. I have tried a search to see if anyone has spelt out a way of the security council dissolving itself without Russia's approval but it doesn't seem to be there.
The security council is rather archaic. After all what is special, for instance, about France or the UK? You can understand the US and China. And the USSR when it was a member. But Russia is far smaller than the USSR.
There have been many calls to reform the security council but they all meet this obstacle that any member of the security council can veto any attempt to reform it.
https://en.wikipedia.org/.../Reform_of_the_United_Nations...
So - I don't know if it can be reformed.
But it is reasonable for Zelensky to suggest it is reformed that it expels Russia or that it dissolves itself as a way to make a political point. Politicians often do that, make a request they know can't and will never be fulfilled as away of making a political point - his point here is that the Security council is no longer upholding international law on sovereignty of nations and so should reform and expel a member that doesn't follow its own founding principles - or else - dissolve itself.
No, not escalate. I described the emotional reaction - which I think is understandable. And - it would prolong the peace talks if they were about to come to a conclusion. But given that Russia is clearly gearing up to some more battles in Donbas not sure they do much. From Putin's side they weren't going to go to a peace agreement in the very near future. But it will likely come to a close in the next few weeks. I'm speculating sometime at the end of April to early May. May 9 victory day - Absolutely NOT a certainty but many people suggest that that's about the longest Putin will want it to continue for.
There will be even tougher sanctions - which will make it harder for Russia to keep fighting. Also, as the war crimes get verified - to China's satisfaction - China is going to find it hard to stay neutral. So we will have to see how that plays out.
Russia has now withdrawn from a very large area of Ukraine, all the blue areas in this map. The Ukrainians will find many more scenes like the ones found so far.
https://www.understandingwar.org/.../russian-offensive...
Also, the Ukrainians continue to hold onto parts of Mariupol, surprising just about everyone. It's not impossible that Ukraine fights back and regains Mariupol now that many of their fighters have been freed up from the central and northern Ukraine.
I think everyone is going to have to process and regroup. Meanwhile battles going on but more localized in Donbas. As for Kherson and the advance towards Odesa - Ukraine are still gaining ground there and may continue to do so. Russia doesn't seem to be ready to advance in that diredction and may not try that any more, they seem to be withdrawing from all their fronts, Sumy too.
Unless Putin just gives up on the invasion,which knowing him is unlikely, then it seems it continues until Ukraine wins, or puts Russia so into retreat that they can see they are going to lose.
In terms of the war lasting for longer - if Russia gains some ground in Donbas - then it likely lasts longer - but longer is a matter of weeks - not sure how it is going to end now.
Because Russia will want to hold onto at least part of Donbas beyond the previous line of contact but I don't see how Ukraine is going to be able to let them do that. Emotionally. Before this, there was some possibility they might settle for letting Russia have a bit more territory. Never that likely but now seems pretty much impossible.
So, I think Russia is going to have to settle to going back to behind the precontact lines And Putin can likely sell that as a win to ordinary Russians because he has control of propaganda.
It may end up as a simlar deal to the one the negotiators worked out. But not until after some battles in Donbas. Not sure they are seriously going to try to advance towards Odessa. They seem overstretched and to gain even some territory in Donbas will be hard. It's also spring and the most difficult conditions for fighting in that region. Normally they would avoid trying to fight in the wet spring conditions. They have chosen the worst time of year for it, and a time with the Ukrainians as well equipped as they have ever been and the Russians demoralized and many of them died or wounded or captured and some have already refused to return to battle in Ukraine.
So, unlikely as it may seem, it may end up as a victory for Ukraine in Donbas, if so - if Russia finds it is losing ground there as well, even after withdrawing from everywhere else, then they may move to peace agreements quickly.
There will be even tougher sanctions - which will make it harder for Russia to keep fighting. Also, as the war crimes get verified - to China's satisfaction - China is going to find it hard to stay neutral. So we will have to see how that plays out.
Russia has now withdrawn from a very large area of Ukraine, all the blue areas in this map. The Ukrainians will find many more scenes like the ones found so far.
https://www.understandingwar.org/.../russian-offensive...
Also, the Ukrainians continue to hold onto parts of Mariupol, surprising just about everyone. It's not impossible that Ukraine fights back and regains Mariupol now that many of their fighters have been freed up from the central and northern Ukraine.
I think everyone is going to have to process and regroup. Meanwhile battles going on but more localized in Donbas. As for Kherson and the advance towards Odesa - Ukraine are still gaining ground there and may continue to do so. Russia doesn't seem to be ready to advance in that diredction and may not try that any more, they seem to be withdrawing from all their fronts, Sumy too.
Unless Putin just gives up on the invasion,which knowing him is unlikely, then it seems it continues until Ukraine wins, or puts Russia so into retreat that they can see they are going to lose.
In terms of the war lasting for longer - if Russia gains some ground in Donbas - then it likely lasts longer - but longer is a matter of weeks - not sure how it is going to end now.
Because Russia will want to hold onto at least part of Donbas beyond the previous line of contact but I don't see how Ukraine is going to be able to let them do that. Emotionally. Before this, there was some possibility they might settle for letting Russia have a bit more territory. Never that likely but now seems pretty much impossible.
So, I think Russia is going to have to settle to going back to behind the precontact lines And Putin can likely sell that as a win to ordinary Russians because he has control of propaganda.
It may end up as a simlar deal to the one the negotiators worked out. But not until after some battles in Donbas. Not sure they are seriously going to try to advance towards Odessa. They seem overstretched and to gain even some territory in Donbas will be hard. It's also spring and the most difficult conditions for fighting in that region. Normally they would avoid trying to fight in the wet spring conditions. They have chosen the worst time of year for it, and a time with the Ukrainians as well equipped as they have ever been and the Russians demoralized and many of them died or wounded or captured and some have already refused to return to battle in Ukraine.
So, unlikely as it may seem, it may end up as a victory for Ukraine in Donbas, if so - if Russia finds it is losing ground there as well, even after withdrawing from everywhere else, then they may move to peace agreements quickly.
- Joined
- Jan 6, 2020
Who cares if the Bucha pics are fake whether they are or not is not a deciding factor in the war we will just blame the Russians for it regardless.
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