War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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It's like these alt-right people don't understand the value of human life. Compromising with evil only leads to greater evil. You give them an inch, they take a mile.

It's like making deals with terrorists, you're only incentivizing others to hit you up even more.
there is a good case to be made for picking your battles, for not throwing away your own soldiers lives and your own taxpayers money on military adventures on the other side of the world in the name of 'fighting evil'

that case however is not applicable to countries that want to be global (like america) or regional (like the EU) hegemons.
you can't spend half a century preaching about universal human rights and global liberal order and then not stand and fight when these things are challenged. likewise, you can't spend half a century talking big game about european unity and solidarity, and then cuck out and do nothing when a fellow european country is getting invaded by a foreign enemy.
 
I'm curious to see what kind of mischief the ukies could get up to with some of the MLRS units slated to be retired soon against a bunch of concentrated Russia armor, assuming we give them any.
If Ukraine gets any of them, they wouldn't be getting any of the rockets with the submunitions. As production of those were discontinued a long time ago. As the submunitions had a 2% dud rate. So no "grid square removal" or "finger of God" happy fun times for the Ukies firing them.
 
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As late as two months ago people unironically thought NATO and the US in particular would get rolled over by Russia in a 'real war' (maybe the most terminal kopeidil addicts still do). I honestly thought the Russian Navy might come out of this looking the best of the Russian military simply because they had little to actually do and thus the least chances to embarrass themselves but this is just humiliating. The fact that it's the fucking Snake Island ship manages to add even more insult to injury.
I mean don't get me wrong. The US Navy while unquestionably the most powerful Navy on earth at the moment, is fully capable of it's own degree of peacetime fuckups. Mostly involving running into things like Rocks, Merchant Ships, Japanese Fishing Boats full of Schoolchildren, etc. And occasionally setting itself on fire ala the late lamented Bon Homme Richard. But to lose a capital ship. Your only flagship in the theater of war. to a Nation with no Naval capability, a purely defensive and under siege Air capability, and largely fighting with man portable missiles is beyond bad. The only thing that could make this story worse is if at Sunrise tomorrow a couple of Ukrainian Fisherman paddle out to the burned hulk of the ship and tow it back to Odessa as a war prize.
 
can you understand that an all out war with russia is bad?
I'm so fucking tired of this "all out war" meme
Christ, can someone shut the Kraut up? Its hard to take someone seriously on military matters when their nation got its ass handed to them by a man who never held a combat command in his life until appointed SHAFE.
Reminder that not only are the Krautoids are the only nation (aside from ISIS) to make the infinity IQ galaxy-brain move of fighting Russia and the USA at once, they also hold the honor of being the only ones with the bright idea to do it twice.
 
Reminder that turning off and restarting oil refineries is harder than you think it is
Russia’s Oil Industry, Linchpin of Economy, Feels Sting of Ukraine War Disruptions (archive)

Storage facilites are filling up, refineries are cutting output and crude-oil wells are throttling back production—a blow for the country’s economy as Moscow wages war on Ukraine

Oil is backing up through Russia’s energy supply chain and leading to a drop in crude-oil production, a blow to Moscow’s main economic engine as the war in Ukraine rages.

Refiners are trimming output and in some cases closing down because of falling demand at home and abroad. Storage space is running low in pipelines and tanks. Wells, which pump from some of the world’s biggest crude reserves, are dialing down production.

The losses so far are modest, and overall the industry continues to generate massive amounts of revenue for Moscow. But the problems of getting crude from the ground to end users are likely to mount in the coming months, traders and analysts say.

In the latest indication of problems ahead, the International Energy Agency forecast Wednesday that from May, almost 3 million barrels a day in Russian production will be turned off. That would reduce output to fewer than 9 million barrels a day, a larger pullback than other analysts have predicted.
The degree to which Russian output suffers depends on Moscow’s ability to find new buyers in Asia. Customers in the U.S. are steering clear and many of those in Europe are seeking alternative suppliers. The IEA said there was no indication yet that China is racing to import barrels being shunned by longtime buyers of Russian oil.
A sustained drop would undermine the prime driver of Russian growth just as sanctions are set to pitch the economy into a steep recession. “There is the risk you permanently lose some production potential,” said Helge André Martinsen, senior oil analyst at DNB Markets.
Moscow has a lot riding on its oil-and-gas producers navigating the crisis. Revenues from Russia’s oil and gas sales made up 45% of the federal budget in 2021, according to the International Energy Agency. Russia will earn $12.1 billion from the oil it exported in March, the Institute of International Finance estimates.

Trouble struck Russia’s refining industry within days of the invasion, traders say. Overseas sales shrank when European importers sought alternative suppliers. The U.S. then banned Russian oil imports in early March.

Unable to find enough buyers for diesel, gasoline and other such products, Russia started running out of places to put them, prompting refiners to run at a slower pace. About 1.7 million barrels a day in refinery production were offline in the week through April 8, said Richard Joswick, head of oil analytics at S&P Global Commodity Insights. That is 70% more capacity offline than typical levels of inactivity during the spring maintenance season.

Among those to shut down having exhausted storage is TAIF-NK PSC, based in Tatarstan in western Russia, traders said. The company didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The chief executive of Lukoil PJSC, Russia’s second-largest oil company, wrote to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak in late March to say storage was brimming with oil, according to a report by Russian newspaper Kommersant. CEO Vagit Alekperov asked to redirect fuel oil to power plants to avoid shutting refiners, according to the report.
A Lukoil spokesperson didn’t respond to requests for comment.

A decline in Russia’s refining industry would have big implications for the oil market. Before the war, Russia was the third-largest oil producer, after the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. It was the world’s biggest exporter, shipping 5 million barrels of crude and a related fuel known as condensate a day, alongside 2.9 million a day of refined products, especially diesel.

Europe is particularly dependent on Russian diesel and prices there leaped after the invasion. The rise added to existing pressures on consumers and businesses, and prompted governments in the U.K., France and elsewhere to reduce sales taxes for road fuels.

The U.S. and allies have agreed to release more than 100 million barrels from government reserves to curtail the runup in energy prices. The plan, combined with Covid-19 lockdowns in China, has quelled wild moves in energy markets that erupted after the invasion. Brent, the international benchmark, traded at $105.09 a barrel Wednesday, down 6.7% from a month earlier.

Difficulties in the refining industry are reversing through the energy industry and hurting Russia’s ability to produce crude—thick, black oil that hasn’t been processed into usable fuels.

The space to store oil appears to be dwindling in the state-owned Transneft PJSC pipeline network as less crude flows into refiners, traders and analysts say. Measuring how much crude is housed in the network is difficult. Many storage tanks in Russia have fixed or covered roofs, or are underground, so satellites can’t calculate the oil inside them by tracking the height of the roof, Mr. Joswick said.

A Transneft spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to request for comment.

With fewer places for their crude to go, Russian producers are cutting back. Output of crude and condensate has fallen to 10.5 million barrels a day, said Amrita Sen, co-founder of Energy Aspects. That is down from 11.1 million barrels a day before the Feb. 24 invasion and compares with global oil demand of roughly 100 million barrels a day.

If maintained through April, current losses would take Russian crude production back to levels from July 2021—before a series of output increases by OPEC+ designed to meet demand as it recovered from Covid-19, according to Lambert Energy Advisory.
It is too early to tell whether Russia’s energy industry will suffer lasting damage, analysts say. There are signs the country is adapting fast to lost demand in the West, sending more shipments of crude to Turkey and India among other countries.

Oil producers in Russia have recovered from setbacks in the past.

Output almost halved between 1987 and 1996 during the disintegration of the Soviet Union, according to a book on Russian oil by Thane Gustafson. Russia returned to the top table of oil-market players when Mikhail Khodorkovsky’s Yukos and Roman Abramovich’s Sibneft applied Western production and management techniques in the 2000s.

Still, sliding demand from Western companies adds to a separate challenge for giants Rosneft Oil Co. and Gazprom PJSC and their smaller rivals: Access to funding, machinery and parts.

Simpler components can be manufactured domestically or sourced from China. But some catalysts and sensors used in refineries are largely manufactured by U.S. and European companies, leading to concerns about not being able to access parts to keep refineries operating, said a person familiar with the Russian oil industry.

The French is cucking out again
Macron declines to follow Biden and call Russian acts in Ukraine ‘genocide’. (archive)

Biden had accused Moscow of genocide but French president says ‘escalation of words’ will not bring peace


Emmanuel Macron has declined to follow Joe Biden’s example in labelling Russia’s actions in Ukraine as genocide, arguing that an “escalation of words” would not help bring peace.

The French president’s remarks drew an angry response from Kyiv, particularly his apparent argument that the term “genocide” did not apply because Ukrainians and Russians were “brotherly people”.

The spokesman for Ukraine’s foreign ministry, Oleh Nikolenko, called Macron’s remarks disappointing.

“‘Brotherly’ people don’t kill children, don’t shoot civilians, don’t rape women, don’t mutilate the elderly, and don’t destroy the homes of other ‘brotherly’ people. Even the fiercest enemies don’t commit atrocities against defenseless people,” Nikolenko said.

Biden accused Moscow of committing genocide late on Tuesday, saying: “Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being Ukrainian.”

“And the evidence is mounting,” he said. “More evidence is coming out of the horrible things that the Russians have done in Ukraine. And we’re going to only learn more and more about the devastation. We’ll let the lawyers decide internationally whether or not it qualifies, but it sure seems that way to me.”

The US ambassador to the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE), Michael Carpenter, made clear on Wednesday that the president’s comments did not represent an official US legal position. Carpenter said Biden had made a “clear moral determination” but added that a legal review was under way and that it is “going to take some time to be completed”.

Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, echoed Biden’s verdict on Wednesday.

“I think it’s absolutely right that more and more people be talking and using the word genocide in terms of what Russia is doing, what Vladimir Putin has done,” Trudeau told reporters in Quebec.

“We have seen this desire to attack civilians, to use sexual violence as a weapon of war,” he said. “This is completely unacceptable.”

Asked to comment on Biden’s accusation of genocide, Macron said that it was clear the Russian army had committed war crimes, but added: “I am prudent with terms today.

“Genocide has a meaning. The Ukrainian people and Russian people are brotherly people,” he said. “It’s madness what’s happening today. It’s unbelievable brutality and a return to war in Europe. But at the same time I look at the facts, and I want to continue to try the utmost to be able to stop the war and restore peace. I’m not sure if the escalation of words serves our cause.”

Another US ally, the Australian prime minister, Scott Morrison, also stopped short of using the term “genocide” on Wednesday, though he said Putin should be “held to account” for war crimes and atrocities in Ukraine.

Biden has been consistently outspoken in denouncing Russian wholesale killing of Ukrainian civilians, labelling Putin as a “war criminal” in mid-March. Multiple investigations are under way into Russian atrocities in Ukraine, which include the razing of Mariupol and the executions of civilians in the Kyiv suburb of Bucha.

The chief prosecutor from the international criminal court (ICC), Karim Khan, visited Bucha on Wednesday and declared: “Ukraine is a crime scene,” adding that there were “reasonable grounds to believe that crimes within the jurisdiction of the court are being committed”.

The three categories of crimes under ICC jurisdiction in Ukraine are war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide. A fourth crime, conducting a war of aggression, has been excluded by Khan under ICC rules as neither Ukraine nor Russia are state parties to the court. The Ukrainian government and some international lawyers have called for a special tribunal to be set up specifically to try Putin and his regime for the crime of aggression.

Proving a case under the 1948 Genocide Convention requires an “intent [by the accused] to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”.

Biden first used the word in passing on Tuesday at a domestic policy event in Iowa about the use of ethanol in petrol.

“Your family budget, your ability to fill up your tank, none of it should hinge on whether a dictator declares war and commits genocide half a world away,” he said.

Questioned later on whether he intended to apply the term to Russians actions in Ukraine, Biden told journalists: “Yes, I called it genocide because it’s become clearer and clearer that Putin is just trying to wipe out the idea of even being Ukrainian.”

His comments were quickly welcomed by the Ukrainian president, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who applauded what he called the “true words of a true leader”.

“Calling things by their names is essential to stand up to evil,” Zelenskiy said on Twitter. “We are grateful for US assistance provided so far and we urgently need more heavy weapons to prevent further Russian atrocities.”

Before his invasion, Putin described Ukrainian separate existence as illegitimate, as he argued that Russians and Ukrainians were one people.

As well as wholesale killing of civilians, Russia has been accused of the forcible transfer of captured Ukrainian civilians into Russia, including large numbers of children, while changing the rules to make it easier for Russian families to adopt them.

Determining the line between crimes against humanity and genocide has sometimes proved difficult and divisive. The international criminal tribunal for the former Yugoslavia ruled that the slaughter of Bosnian Muslims in Srebrenica constituted genocide but not the mass killings carried out by Serb forces in other municipalities, a distinction that outraged the populations of the other devastated towns.
 
I'm so fucking tired of this "all out war" meme
you think the russians want to go full Dresden on Cities and towns with majority Russian population?
You think Kevin would look as good as it is without russia holding back? they didnt even use all theyve got on mariupol.
Im not talking about russia winning, im talking about russia burning down Ukraine to spite Nato...

I mean don't get me wrong. The US Navy while unquestionably the most powerful Navy on earth at the moment, is fully capable of it's own degree of peacetime fuckups. Mostly involving running into things like Rocks, Merchant Ships, Japanese Fishing Boats full of Schoolchildren, etc. And occasionally setting itself on fire ala the late lamented Bon Homme Richard. But to lose a capital ship. Your only flagship in the theater of war. to a Nation with no Naval capability, a purely defensive and under siege Air capability, and largely fighting with man portable missiles is beyond bad. The only thing that could make this story worse is if at Sunrise tomorrow a couple of Ukrainian Fisherman paddle out to the burned hulk of the ship and tow it back to Odessa as a war prize.
they still sold their carriers to some retarded suckers...
 
The only thing that could make this story worse is if at Sunrise tomorrow a couple of Ukrainian Fisherman paddle out to the burned hulk of the ship and tow it back to Odessa as a war prize.
The way things are going it wouldn't shock me if it winds up being towed back to the Mykolaiv yards where it was first built. And definitely not by the Russians.

Wonder if they'll the change the name to Slava Ukraini as the ultimate insult to the Russians...

EDIT: The USA would totally make a deal with Ukraine that sees us help them rebuild it so long as they hand over whatever intact Russian tech is aboard still... and what are the odds the Russians failed to do any sort of proper scuttling or recovery prevention instead of just getting the hell out of there?
 
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you think the russians want to go full Dresden on Cities and towns with majority Russian population?
You think Kevin would look as good as it is without russia holding back? they didnt even use all theyve got on mariupol.

You keep saying shit like this but provide literally no sources to suggest Russia has the capability to do this. You talk about all their supposed war material in storage they could totally bring out to bomb ukraine into dust while ignoring the clear evidence that Russian storage and maintenence procedures have likely left most of it non-functional, they lack the manpower to activate new units to use it, and they lack the logistical capabilities to get that shit to the front. Seriously, what exactly about the comprehensive and widely documented series of fuckups that has been the Russian invasion makes you think this is magically somehow possible, even ignoring the fact that escalating to flat out bombing widescale terror bombing is literally the one thing that might actively draw NATO into combat.
 
there is a good case to be made for picking your battles, for not throwing away your own soldiers lives and your own taxpayers money on military adventures on the other side of the world in the name of 'fighting evil'

that case however is not applicable to countries that want to be global (like america) or regional (like the EU) hegemons.
you can't spend half a century preaching about universal human rights and global liberal order and then not stand and fight when these things are challenged. likewise, you can't spend half a century talking big game about european unity and solidarity, and then cuck out and do nothing when a fellow european country is getting invaded by a foreign enemy.
Exactly. A small country like say, Switzerland or Greece can afford to get picky with which battles they fight. The US and the EU however, their prestige and their economic ties lie upon the fact that people trust them to keep things safe. So they can't cuck out without looking like idiots. I can understand some banana republic not wanting to get involved with Ukraine, but NATO and the EU have to, even if they don't want to, otherwise, no one will trust them ever again, if someone who wanted to go to them didn't get their protection......
 
You keep saying shit like this but provide literally no sources to suggest Russia has the capability to do this. You talk about all their supposed war material in storage they could totally bring out to bomb ukraine into dust while ignoring the clear evidence that Russian storage and maintenence procedures have likely left most of it non-functional, they lack the manpower to activate new units to use it, and they lack the logistical capabilities to get that shit to the front. Seriously, what exactly about the comprehensive and widely documented series of fuckups that has been the Russian invasion makes you think this is magically somehow possible, even ignoring the fact that escalating to flat out bombing widescale terror bombing is literally the one thing that might actively draw NATO into combat.
HE'S
GERMAN

His source is his ass, same place Hitler expected to pull troops and equipment for Steiner's counterattack.
 
you think the russians want to go full Dresden on Cities and towns with majority Russian population?
You think Kevin would look as good as it is without russia holding back? they didnt even use all theyve got on mariupol.
Im not talking about russia winning, im talking about russia burning down Ukraine to spite Nato...
They already did that to Mariupol. And the majority Russian populations in East Ukraine are getting emptied out to become cannon fodder in this stupid war.

Russia is losing VDV, Spetsnaz, and all sorts of tank and aircraft units that each cost millions. How can they be holding back at this point?

HE'S
GERMAN

His source is his ass, same place Hitler expected to pull troops and equipment for Steiner's counterattack.
Rumor is that Hitler's ghost is still in Berlin, waiting for Steiner's counterattack.
 
What is the aftermath of the russians getting another black eye? They were launching cruise missiles into the mainland from it, no? Also does this degrade Russian AA in the region significantly? Could we see the remaining Russian warships being much more vulnerable?
 
you think the russians want to go full Dresden on Cities and towns with majority Russian population?
You think Kevin would look as good as it is without russia holding back? they didnt even use all theyve got on mariupol.
Im not talking about russia winning, im talking about russia burning down Ukraine to spite Nato...


they still sold their carriers to some retarded suckers...

Russians have already turned Mariupol and Kharkiv into Dresden, you stupid Kraut dickhead. The talking point about "not using all they got" is stupid - the only two things they got left are strategic bombers doing bombing runs (and Ukrainians still have anti-aircraft defence) and nuclear weapons.
 
Russians have already turned Mariupol and Kharkiv into Dresden, you stupid Kraut dickhead. The talking point about "not using all they got" is stupid - the only two things they got left are strategic bombers doing bombing runs (and Ukrainians still have anti-aircraft defence) and nuclear weapons.
And, depending on which sources you believe, gas.
 
What is the aftermath of the russians getting another black eye? They were launching cruise missiles into the mainland from it, no? Also does this degrade Russian AA in the region significantly? Could we see the remaining Russian warships being much more vulnerable?
Probably not much in terms of AA, although the new gap in their sensor coverage doesn't help; but it's not like an equivalent to Aegis. The thing was designed to launch cruise missiles, not so much for networked air/sea defense & cover. But if their systems & escorts couldn't handle even a fairly simple diversion & attack, well...
 
No, Hungary is not worth starting a world war over.
Yes it is, its a western nation and we need to pretect it.

They already did that to Mariupol. And the majority Russian populations in East Ukraine are getting emptied out to become cannon fodder in this stupid war.

Mariupol looks pretty unharmed if you dont only cosume cnn...
even a totaly depleted russian army has enough old ammo to blow up half the world, even badly stored ww2 ammo will work fine if dr
 
Yes it is, its a western nation and we need to pretect it.



Mariupol looks pretty unharmed if you dont only cosume cnn...
even a totaly depleted russian army has enough old ammo to blow up half the world, even badly stored ww2 ammo will work fine if dr
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