- Joined
- Aug 16, 2020
I've been wondering if Ukraine is to become the European Afghanistan, in a sense. Not the best analogy but the US in particular seems perfectly content keeping the blood flowing as long as it hurts Russia in some form or another. Never mind that it also hurts Ukraine, Ukraine supplies the manpower and the West supplies the gear. The gear is effectively limitless and no one seems to care what the manpower limit is.It is quite obvious the US Government does not want to offer an OUT to anyone in Russia, nevermind Putin. They desire to slam Ukraine with as much intensity as possible to force the war to become as dirty and long as possible, and entice Russia to expend more energy and resources to the region. The Russian demands for a negotiated peace in the Donbas were not unreasonable, but anybody in Ukraine suggesting it would almost certainly end up being overthrown (and now would probably just be taken outside and shot).
The current Western demands are essentially DELUSIONAL: they still think there is a path for a Russian withdrawal from Crimea! Nevermind the Donbas regions. There is simply zero reality where anybody in the Russian government would agree to such terms. At this point bringing in the Ukrainian government into Crimea would be like agreeing to have ISIS ruling over the people of Israel. DELUSIONAL.
Even if some palace-coup stooge they keep talking about agrees to withdraw from Crimea, the new Russian government will immediately have to deal with Western-funded separatist and color revolutions in Siberia and will once again find themselves on the defensive from Western soft power and a strategy of containment while attempting to uphold their international image.
The best solution for Russia in the current environment they find themselves, is likely to do exactly what I think Putin is now doing: simply normalize the situation in Eastern Ukraine and shore up the territories they hold. Then keep a disputed border with Western Ukraine they can periodically make incursions into, a constant state of limited war. Very similar to the State of Israel making incursions into its Palestinian neighbors. Yes the usual freaks screech loudly on Twitter, but for the rest of the world life goes on business as usual.
Ukraine will have a total war economy for perpetuity, well supplied by the West, but limited in its actual engagement with the Russian army. It's ironic that Zelensky looks to Israel as his inspiration for a future Ukraine, when they will likely end up being Palestine.