Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

There ought to be a good in-between of opinions on this war instead of "Russia is the strongest nation on earth and is going to purge all of NATO" and "Russia is the weakest nation on earth and would lose to Somalian pirates", though more people espouse the latter for some reason.

easily observeable phenomena are typically widely accepted

 

[BiggerChungus]

How about - the Russian army is the second most powerful army in the world, which has problems with a lightning victory over a weaker Ukraine, which, however, is supported by the EU and the US financially and with weapons.

Agreed, though I'd put China above Russia.

 

[DumbDude42]

How about - the Russian army is the second most powerful army in the world, which has problems with a lightning victory over a weaker Ukraine, which, however, is supported by the EU and the US financially and with weapons.

hard to say for sure but im pretty confident the chinese army is a lot more powerful than the russians at this point, except when it comes to nuclear arsenal

 

[Maurice Caine]

The situation in the Donbas has quickly deteriorated for the UAF after the loss of Popasna. In my opinion, in 10 years, losing that city will be viewed as the catalyst for what's going to happen next. I still really doubt it was a smart idea to abandon it instead of feeding in troops and supplies as they had been doing for months at this point.

And what's going to happen next? Well, cauldrons will be formed. Not a giant cauldron, mind you, but two distinct ones: one for the troops in Lysychansk, Severodonetsk and surroundings, and one for everyone caught between those places and Popasna. For now, the Russians are focusing on destroying bridges out of these cities, but one thing that went mostly unnoticed was that they now have artillery control over one the most important roads in the region; the T-13-02 highway, the only point that the Ukrainian troops could have possibly used to retreat from the Donbas in any sort of timely or organized manner, because, as we all know, trying to retreat through dirt roads and village streets is hard for a variety of reasons.

In my opinion, a lot of these troops will be heading to Siversk, in an attempt to link up with the Russian forces coming from Yampol and attempting to force a crossing through the Siversky Donets (probably where the Russians are losing the most troops right now) and essentially cutting off the UAF troops in the Donbas from any sort of reinforcement or resupply, trapping them all into a large cauldron (formed through Siversk) and a small cauldron (consisting of Lysychansk, Severodonets and Novodruzhesk).

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Now, I previously doubted the UAF's intent to retreat from Severodonetsk with little fight, but with the recent bridge sabotage going on in Lysychansk, I really can't guess at what else they're intending to do, because the situation in Lysychansk isn't going to be any better. Why? Because shortly before losing Popasna, they'd also lost Nyznie and Orikhove, which allowed the Russians to surround reach Zolote from the Northeast, and if/when Komyshuvakha falls, it will be surrounded, along with Hirske and in conjunction with this, the Russians are conducting an advance from Toshkivka, with the apparent intent of reaching Lysychansk, thus surrounding it (and starting the smaller cauldron).

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I really can't imagine where the Ukrainians are intending to do to prevent this, but if I were them I would have held at Kramatorsk/Sloviansk, which are probably the better fortified areas still left. I just don't know if it's feasible for the UA troops in the Donbas to retreat and reach it anymore.


Anyway, in all other fronts, very little change, including in the fighting for Novhorodske, which hasn't left the outskirts of the city yet as far as I know. Fighting is heavy in Novobakhmutivka, and the city is half-surrounded by now. In Adviivka heavy clashes are the new normal as well. No change in Mari'inka or the Zaporizhia line, or in the Kherson front.

In Kharkiv some new developments as the Russians claim to have gone on counter-offensives in Ternova, half surrounding it, and in Rubizhne, where there apparently is heavy fighting. No confirmation though. The Russians claim this offensive was made possible only because their artillery had heavily softened the UAF present in the area. There are also reported clashes near Lyptsy and near Kozacha Lopan somewhat, where the Russians refuse to retreat and hold their ground. In Izyum, there's heavy fighting for Velyka Komyshuvaka, which has been going on for a while now with lulls.

Disclaimer: Armchair general.

I had a dream once where I was a soldier in a war and my commander was taking all of his advice from god's only kiwifarms.net.

 

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

How about - the Russian army is the second most powerful army in the world, which has problems with a lightning victory over a weaker Ukraine, which, however, is supported by the EU and the US financially and with weapons.

Russia has never made any military gains without using weapons provided by a western lend/lease. Their military might is as real as a transgendered woman's neovagina

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I had a dream once where I was a soldier in a war and my commander was taking all of his advice from god's only kiwifarms.net.

That'd actually explain quite a bit of the behavior & decisions I witnessed; except not as farmers, but as cows.

 

[White_N]

Agreed, though I'd put China above Russia.

hard to say for sure but im pretty confident the chinese army is a lot more powerful than the russians at this point, except when it comes to nuclear arsenal

I don't quite understand where such conclusions are coming from. Although I do not share the general dislike of the Chinese, which many have, the narrow-eyed do not know how to fight at all, even though the size of the army is large. The Russians certainly lose half of their army every war, but on average they win at least half of them.

Russia has never made any military gains without using weapons provided by a western lend/lease. Their military might is as real as a transgendered woman's neovagina

ok

 

[Garm]

Info on the guy

One of the surrendered prisoners of war from Azovstal turned out to be David Kasatkin, who threatened to kill Kadyrov and rape his daughters
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This is why you don't shit talk the opposition. Especially if your grand plan is "hide out in Soviet era tunnels and hope your opponents get bored and leave."

There ought to be a good in-between of opinions on this war instead of "Russia is the strongest nation on earth and is going to purge all of NATO" and "Russia is the weakest nation on earth and would lose to Somalian pirates", though more people espouse the latter for some reason.

Because nuance is dead. Either because a crab bucket mentality where everyone just wants to tear each other down or everyone has a doctorate from Google University and hence they know "The Truth"™ from glowies.

Also too many people believe in Hollywood style wars where the war flows one way until the last second some hero realizes the flaw in the evil masterminds plan and unravels the whole thing.

And everyone was ready to declare the war over after two weeks. By that logic France would have never been freed from Nazi occupation.

"Nope. The Nazi's won. No takesies backsies. Armies cannot march forward and back as the ebb and flow of war dictates. They only go forward until they go backwards. THEMS THE RULES!!!!"

 

[White_N]

Azovites did get to have some relaxing days deep in the catacombs.
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Dude weed LMAO

 

[Kuritan Deplorable]

Because nuance is dead. Either because a crab bucket mentality where everyone just wants to tear each other down or everyone has a doctorate from Google University and hence they know "The Truth"™ from glowies.

Or the third option, the sane people with opinions somewhere in the middle have learned that voicing them will get them fucking assblasted. When people are uncertain of their opinion, or know they're going to get shredded for it, they won't bring it up in most spaces. Why bring that shit into your life, right.

 

[Garm]

Or the third option, the sane people with opinions somewhere in the middle have learned that voicing them will get them fucking assblasted. When people are uncertain of their opinion, or know they're going to get shredded for it, they won't bring it up in most spaces. Why bring that shit into your life, right.

When I wrote that I had just waded through 5 pages of autism in this thread about "what standards do we use to objectively measure how well a siege is going" so the idea of sane people was very far from my mind.

 

[Simpadoo]

It's such a trip to not look at this thread for a month or two and only be exposed to western propaganda, and then come back to a completely separate reality when I check in again.

Depends on the time. If you look when the toilet kickers are on, yeah, it’s Retard City. Once they go back to their janitorial occupations, the thread gets much better.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Depends on the time. If you look when the toilet kickers are on, yeah, it’s Retard City. Once they go back to their janitorial occupations, the thread gets much better.

Too bad the janitorial workers that post here won't see this

 

[mindlessobserver]

It's such a trip to not look at this thread for a month or two and only be exposed to western propaganda, and then come back to a completely separate reality when I check in again.

It would be a trip, to go from Western Propaganda to Russian Propaganda. Both are fake and gay, just for different reasons.

The situation in the Donbas has quickly deteriorated for the UAF after the loss of Popasna. In my opinion, in 10 years, losing that city will be viewed as the catalyst for what's going to happen next. I still really doubt it was a smart idea to abandon it instead of feeding in troops and supplies as they had been doing for months at this point.

!0 years from now, historians will study how Russia was forced to give up control of Ukraine's second largest city in exchange for a "literally who" shithole farming town of limited strategic importance.

And what's going to happen next? Well, cauldrons will be formed. Not a giant cauldron, mind you, but two distinct ones: one for the troops in Lysychansk, Severodonetsk and surroundings, and one for everyone caught between those places and Popasna. For now, the Russians are focusing on destroying bridges out of these cities, but one thing that went mostly unnoticed was that they now have artillery control over one the most important roads in the region; the T-13-02 highway, the only point that the Ukrainian troops could have possibly used to retreat from the Donbas in any sort of timely or organized manner, because, as we all know, trying to retreat through dirt roads and village streets is hard for a variety of reasons.

Ukraine is a light Infantry Army. They don't NEED the roads. That is has been the entire story of this war. All the videos of the Ukrainian Army on the move, including their vehicle pulled artillery, shows them moving through trees and down cow paths. The reliance of the Russian Army on main roads and rail lines has been the major contributing factor for why they have failed to land any significant kill shots on Ukraine. Their ability to shell a "main road" is meaningless, since the enemy they are fighting does not use those roads in the first place. Russia can waste as many rockets as it wants on empty stretches of road. It accomplishes nothing.

In my opinion, a lot of these troops will be heading to Siversk, in an attempt to link up with the Russian forces coming from Yampol and attempting to force a crossing through the Siversky Donets (probably where the Russians are losing the most troops right now) and essentially cutting off the UAF troops in the Donbas from any sort of reinforcement or resupply, trapping them all into a large cauldron (formed through Siversk) and a small cauldron (consisting of Lysychansk, Severodonets and Novodruzhesk).

About that. Ukraine just smashed an attempt to cross the Siversky Donets.

https://t.me/spravdi/8844

View attachment 3305832

Now, I previously doubted the UAF's intent to retreat from Severodonetsk with little fight, but with the recent bridge sabotage going on in Lysychansk, I really can't guess at what else they're intending to do, because the situation in Lysychansk isn't going to be any better. Why? Because shortly before losing Popasna, they'd also lost Nyznie and Orikhove, which allowed the Russians to surround reach Zolote from the Northeast, and if/when Komyshuvakha falls, it will be surrounded, along with Hirske and in conjunction with this, the Russians are conducting an advance from Toshkivka, with the apparent intent of reaching Lysychansk, thus surrounding it (and starting the smaller cauldron).

Is it really so hard to see what Ukraine is doing? Its an attrition war. They are bleeding Russia white in the region of Ukraine they never really controlled to begin with while building up power west of the Dneiper. This fight for the Donbas is a side show compared to the real battles, which are for Kryivi Ri, Melitipol, Zaporzhia and Kharkiv. Those are are the regions that REALLY matter. Until Russia can take those areas, they are wasting the bulk of their active duty military seizing control of cow pastures that are of little strategic or economic importance to Ukraine.

View attachment 3305836

I really can't imagine where the Ukrainians are intending to do to prevent this, but if I were them I would have held at Kramatorsk/Sloviansk, which are probably the better fortified areas still left. I just don't know if it's feasible for the UA troops in the Donbas to retreat and reach it anymore.

They may retreat from Sloviansk, but that will depend on how badly things go on the Kharkiv Front. There is still a good chance of total failure there which would cut the supply line to Russian positions in Izium. In which case the Russian forces there would have to retreat.

Anyway, in all other fronts, very little change, including in the fighting for Novhorodske, which hasn't left the outskirts of the city yet as far as I know. Fighting is heavy in Novobakhmutivka, and the city is half-surrounded by now. In Adviivka heavy clashes are the new normal as well. No change in Mari'inka or the Zaporizhia line, or in the Kherson front.

In Kharkiv some new developments as the Russians claim to have gone on counter-offensives in Ternova, half surrounding it, and in Rubizhne, where there apparently is heavy fighting. No confirmation though. The Russians claim this offensive was made possible only because their artillery had heavily softened the UAF present in the area. There are also reported clashes near Lyptsy and near Kozacha Lopan somewhat, where the Russians refuse to retreat and hold their ground. In Izyum, there's heavy fighting for Velyka Komyshuvaka, which has been going on for a while now with lulls.

Disclaimer: Armchair general.

I think Ukraine thought about making a push for Kherson, but instead opted for a more static defense of the Donbass. Whatever is going on around that city, its definitely both the Russian and the Ukrainians B teams. For now.

 

[BiggerChungus]

I don't quite understand where such conclusions are coming from. Although I do not share the general dislike of the Chinese, which many have, the narrow-eyed do not know how to fight at all, even though the size of the army is large. The Russians certainly lose half of their army every war, but on average they win at least half of them.

We've not really seen China in a conventional war for decades. Their modern army could possibly suck, but they've got a stronger industry and larger budget than Russia, as well as considerably easier access to digital and electronic warfare equipment, and more manpower than any other military in the world. Their modern tanks are also good, same for their jets, and they've got shitloads of artillery. I think Russia's military overall is more advanced and better-trained, but I think that in terms of overall military might, China's ahead of them.

 

[mindlessobserver]

We've not really seen China in a conventional war for decades. Their modern army could possibly suck, but they've got a stronger industry and larger budget than Russia, as well as considerably easier access to digital and electronic warfare equipment, and more manpower than any other military in the world. Their modern tanks are also good, same for their jets, and they've got shitloads of artillery. I think Russia's military overall is more advanced and better-trained, but I think that in terms of overall military might, China's ahead of them.

China's geography oddly enough means it needs to be a Naval Power more then a land power. Any war with any of its enemies, including India, will largely be fought at Sea.

 

[mr.moon1488]

Azovites did get to have some relaxing days deep in the catacombs.
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Usually, sieges end when the defender runs out of food and or water. A siege ending due to withdrawal symptoms is an interesting outcome.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

China's geography oddly enough means it needs to be a Naval Ppwer more then a land power. Any war with any of its enemies, including India, will largely be fought at Sea.

Their Navy is mixed, 350 ships but don't have many "capital" sized ships as in Cruisers and Carriers, it's a problem China has recognized and will probably be fixed within the decade. But who knows how valuable supercarriers are with ASMs with hundreds of kilometers in range are in the picture, Battleships became obsolete overnight and who knows if supercarriers will be. Carriers themselves will always have their place though.

 

[IKOL]

Russia has never made any military gains without using weapons provided by a western lend/lease. Their military might is as real as a transgendered woman's neovagina

That's too much words for say "I'm niggercattle faggot".

 

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

That's too much words for say "I'm niggercattle faggot".

u mad bro?

I do agree, though, I am a niggercattle faggot, because that can be easily observed, just as Russia's military failures post WW2 can be observed.