Russian Invasion of Ukraine Megathread

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

Difficult to say about the helo. Definitely damaged. Afaik the first thing you do after being hit is to lower your altitude, makes you less visible to trackers. Assuming you still have full control.

 

[UVB-76]

What the fuck is that? Are they welding tabs to hold ERA bricks?

 

[The Foldless Brain]

This is yet another reminder that the insurgency is arch-cope. It's been three months and there's been 0 (zero) partisan armies or guerilla on Russia-controlled territories. Afghanistan was a mountainous territory easily lending itself to places for insurgents to hide out, with a highly motivated and majority young population, with a massive TFR of around 7.5 at the time of the US and Soviet invasions and that's over 4 even now. The Ukrainian TFR by contrast is 1.2, below even Russia, with flat terrain and majority older population, with over six million people having migrated out already, predominantly the youngest and most able to work.

 

[White_N]

Russia potentially having to basically solely lean on China for being a major trading partner within the next couple years is ironic. It's the same trap Europe finds itself in with being lured by the promise of cheap Russian Gas and Oil, and it's not a matter of if China fucks Russia over using this massive amount of leverage they suddenly gained over Russia, it's a matter of when and how within the next decade.

It's some kind of human centipede.

America depends on China, Russia depends on China and Europe on Russia.

Where is the cat ears?

 

[kuuu]

Trophies from Lyman.
Russian forces send their regards to Elon.

Few more pics:
https://t.me/sashakots/33127

https://t.me/sashakots/33137

 

[Napoleon Bonerfart]

Why should common Ukrainian risk his own live for the state, if nothing will be different for him, whether he is under Russia or under Ukraine?

Ukrainians have always had it better than Russians.

 

[Su-27 Flanker-B]

View attachment 3328469View attachment 3328470View attachment 3328471
What the fuck is that? Are they welding tabs to hold ERA bricks?

Thats possible. Iirc storage units arent bricked.

 

[White_N]

Severodonetsk. The territorial defense refuses to take up positions as there is no support and the command gives inadequate orders.

According to the rioters, Shchedrishchevo (a microdistrict in the north of Severodonetsk) was abandoned by the AFU on May 14th.

footage of the AFU strike on Makeyevka

This is yet another reminder that the insurgency is arch-cope. It's been three months and there's been 0 (zero) partisan armies or guerilla on Russia-controlled territories. Afghanistan was a mountainous territory easily lending itself to places for insurgents to hide out, with a highly motivated and majority young population, with a massive TFR of 7.1 at the time of the US invasion. The Ukrainian TFR by contrast is 1.2, below even Russia, with flat terrain and majority older population, with over six million people having migrated out already, predominantly the youngest and most able to work.

The rebel movement can become a problem when the real army is destroyed.

And by the way, there has already been a terrorist attack on the mayor of Energodar.

 

[kuuu]

Some might remember Ukrainian soldier making fun of mothers of dead Russian soldiers.

Karma hasn't caught up to him just yet. It did catch his little brother.


News is supposed to be two maybe three days old, but only now I had seen confirmation from the cunt himself.

He says that he will call his own mom with how proud he is of his little brother, etc.

Some quotes:
"Russians are robots that only drink, eat, shit and listen to chanson"
"Russians have no soul"
"I'm sure that killing Russians isn't a sin"

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

The rebel movement can become a problem when the real army is destroyed.

There's actually a major issue with that, in that if the Ukrainian army is defeated conventionally I honestly think all weapons from Europe/US will dry up overnight. France/Germany etc. does NOT want to give incredibly high tech weaponary to civillians that 1) don't really know how to use it 2) have a reasonably high chance of hitting the wrong target. The contrarian in me thinks this is why there's promises to deliver weapons in a month or so (aka, when the Ukrainian forces are defeated so they don't have to send them)

It's why Zelensky keeps claiming that there's more and more trained soldiers ready to fight. The moment there isn't and the population needs to use guerilla tactics to fight they'll be forced to fight with whatever they currently have.

 

[Male Idiot]

There's actually a major issue with that, in that if the Ukrainian army is defeated conventionally I honestly think all weapons from Europe/US will dry up overnight. France/Germany etc. does NOT want to give incredibly high tech weaponary to civillians that 1) don't really know how to use it 2) have a reasonably high chance of hitting the wrong target. The contrarian in me thinks this is why there's promises to deliver weapons in a month or so (aka, when the Ukrainian forces are defeated so they don't have to send them)

It's why Zelensky keeps claiming that there's more and more trained soldiers ready to fight. The moment there isn't and the population needs to use guerilla tactics to fight they'll be forced to fight with whatever they currently have.

Whoever wins, a lot of guns will hit the black market. Slavs are slavs.

But yeah, a lot of rapefugees are fleeing to Poland. Not a great look for insurgency.

I would say state mandated ukranian girl for every pole, but their poles deserve better.

 

[Elbereth]

Assuming it ends how I think it will (Kherson Oblast annexed, Donbass captured, and Zaporizhzhya Oblast either completely annexed or split into two secure a complete land bridge to Crimea). Ukraine will remain poor as fuck, but assuming economic aid happens and at least a good chunk of those funds end up where they're supposed to (much, much easier said than done with how bad Ukraine's corruption is) they won't become a total rump state like they would without Odessa. They're still going to lose a lot of their population from either the war itself or the millions of refugees who probably aren't returning, combined with their own population issues before this, long term they're probably fucked.

The West would pass the war off as a pyrrhic Russian victory where Russia did indeed win, but didn't get all it wanted and at great cost to itself. Europe will likely continue to take measures to reduce Russian oil and gas consumption by either getting alternative countries' or new power plants. No matter what the war will cement Russia and China as the new evil empires for the West, which they were already on their way to becoming. Sweden and Finland will join NATO after Turkey gets thrown a bone.

For Russia, they will be fine in the short term as gas and oil prices are high and they can still make a lot of money even with less countries buying, but when they fall they're really going to feel it. Won't be as bad as the disaster that was the 90s for Russia, but it will be much worse than the recession they went through when they annexed Crimea.

I agree, to up to the part that they are benefiting from high oil prices. It is vatnik meme.

There are 3 main kinds of oil: Brent (traded in London), West Texas Intermedaite (traded, ironically in NY) and Urals, traded in Moscow. Before war, barrel of each kind would trade for basically same amount of money, but right now, Urals is ~35 USD cheaper than Brent. Also, due to war they basically have to sell all theri stuff on spot market, have trouble to insure their shipment.

Gas situation is better for them, but gas as a whole is smaller revenue source than oil. And they still made some fucking retarded moves. The gas prices right now are highest in history and they cut off three countires: Poland, Finland and Bulgaria. All three of them have solid ways to be fine with that.

Cutting these countries off was basically Putin sanctioning himself. He really willingly deprive himself of large amount of money.

 

[Male Idiot]

I agree, to up to the part that they are benefiting from high oil prices. It is vatnik meme.
View attachment 3328950
There are 3 main kinds of oil: Brent (traded in London), West Texas Intermedaite (traded, ironically in NY) and Urals, traded in Moscow. Before war, barrel of each kind would trade for basically same amount of money, but right now, Urals is ~35 USD cheaper than Brent. Also, due to war they basically have to sell all theri stuff on spot market, have trouble to insure their shipment.

Gas situation is better for them, but gas as a whole is smaller revenue source than oil. And they still made some fucking retarded moves. The gas prices right now are highest in history and they cut off three countires: Poland, Finland and Bulgaria. All three of them have solid ways to be fine with that.

Cutting these countries off was basically Putin sanctioning himself. He really willingly deprive himself of large amount of money.

I am ready to hear your alternative solid ways. Poland stronk enough to drink vodka and piss oil?

Buying from V4 doesn't count as we don't piss it out but buy it from the bear, Morty.

 

[IKOL]

Some might remember Ukrainian soldier making fun of mothers of dead Russian soldiers.
View attachment 3328934

Karma hasn't caught up to him just yet. It did catch his little brother.
View attachment 3328936

News is supposed to be two maybe three days old, but only now I had seen confirmation from the cunt himself.
View attachment 3328938
He says that he will call his own mom with how proud he is of his little brother, etc.

Some quotes:
"Russians are robots that only drink, eat, shit and listen to chanson"
"Russians have no soul"
"I'm sure that killing Russians isn't a sin"

So he fled, his little brother in grave (maybe), and we have no soul...
When this faggot have had fun harassing dead soldiers' mothers.

He better pray to catch a bullet, because if he gets captured that champagne bottle would not wait long for his insides.

 

[Bungus Scrungus]

So what's happened now? Anything noteworthy?

 

[Tom Nook's Gloryhole]

So what's happened now? Anything noteworthy?

Tanks are outside Moscow right now and a set of gallows are being set up by Azov combatants. We're about to see the graphic end of Putler in 4k.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukrainian estimates of Russian Casualties. Salt, Grains, etc.

So what's happened now? Anything noteworthy?

Russia is continuing to push hard in Donbass, and is still making what amounts to World War 1 level gains. Moving at about a rate of 500 meters a day, if you factor in times they have to move backwards. Ukraine is attempting to take back Lopan and finally clear the Russians out of the Kharkiv region. Russia failed to cross the Little Donetsk river, again, but did manage to take Lyman. Lyman could be a big deal because of its rail yard, but Russia won't be able to take advantage of that until or unless they take Sviatohirsk. It seems the Ukrainians are trading space for time in areas where they can afford to do so and then digging in where they can't. I think the bulk of their forces are still up around Kharkiv attempting to secure the city.

Ukraine's issue is its Army is not very mobile, as it relies on light infantry and towed artillery to a heavy degree. Its not very flexible, so until they secure Kharkiv those troops can't disengage safely and reinforce Donbass.

Other then that, artillery duels all along the line of actual control.

 

[Givi]

I know it's been discussed in these last few pages already but it does bother me that people love to bring up guerilla warfare as if conducting successful guerilla operations is as simple as changing your army's stance in Total War.

It's a completely different method of warfare and it's a brutal one.

In modern days, it's one that inevitably brings very high casualties as weapons and surveillance equipment get more and more sophisticated. It's not enough anymore to take your Jihadist friends and go hide out in the mountains of Afghanistan and wait for Soviet convoys to pass through, there's always a drone flying overhead, trying to spot you, or satellites trying to take pictures of your training camp so a ballistic missile can be sent your way. So you have to travel lighter than even your ancestors had to, you can't move large amounts of people or armor at the same time or in the same locations. You need to have your own drones around, performing reconnaissance. You can't stay in one place for long, even more so than in the 70s (or even before) unless it's an exceedingly good place. You're always at a weapons and intelligence disadvantage even with perfect reconnaissance of your surroundings. And this brings me to the next point;

Geography makes and breaks guerilla movements. Afghanistan is literally perfect. Mountains all around. Thick vegetation in some places. Caves to hide in and be impervious to bombing. Tough terrain to navigate everywhere in general. The weather is literally hell for any invading force that isn't your neighbor, and even then it sucks. The lay of the land is hard to get because it's such a foreign environment. What about Ukraine? Well, it's not really mountainous. The weather is basically the same as most of Russia (better, really). The eastern part of the country is almost all large open swathes of country with nothing but mediocre forest cover, but mostly fields. Trying to conduct guerilla operations in 2022 in this kind of terrain is a losing proposition.

And then there's also the issue of languages and cultures, because in places like Afghanistan there's always the problem of several dialects, a completely different alphabet, completely different manners and customs to many basic things. What difference is there really, between the Ukrainian and the Russian other than slight differences in words? Compare that to the Soviet or American to the Afghani, or the Soviet to the Chechnyan or the Ottoman to the Hajduk, or the Roman to the Iberian or Germanic.

And also the issue of religion, devotion to commanders and morale in general is in my opinion what makes guerilla movements truly successful: the Ukrainians have no religious quarrel with the Russians, they're both Christian, and both of the same sect at that, and both become more modernized and less dependent on religion by the day in any case. Afghanistan wouldn't have won without the strength of Allah, real or imagined, behind their Mujahideen, nor would the Chechens have beaten back the Russians. The Hajduks wouldn't have been as anxious to fight the Ottomans and willing to do so if they weren't Muslim, and if the Iberian and Germanic tribes had no religious differences with the Romans, would resistance have really been as harsh as it was?

And this leads me to the next topic; where there's no religious hatred to unite the guerrillas there must at least be a cult of personality, somebody that the fighters can always rally around. In the American Civil War there was William Quantrill, who managed to unite a lot of strong personalities into his Quantrill's Raiders, (including the James brothers, for example) but even he had lost majority control of his guerrilla by 1864 - to other strong personalities like George Todd and Bloody Bill Anderson, but he still kept many loyal followers with him. In Serbia there was Arkan with Arkan's Tigers (more of a paramilitary organization, but whatever), who did everything he could to cultivate his image as a strongman and in return was followed until the end of war. Countless examples even throughout history, like Viriathus who fought and consistently defeated Romans under a confederation of different Iberian tribes, united by his personality and military mind which brought him constant success, with him dead, the tribes quickly scattered after taking a loss under their new chieftain.

And really, it's not just about being a strong personality, guerrilla warfare is something only truly great commanders can properly conduct. You have to know when to retreat, when to attack, when to harass, when to hide, when to move, when to disperse and all these orders must be communicated quickly and effectively to your fighters.

And how can you manage morale without religion and a Dear Leader to hold things together when you have to march 30 kilometers a day under harassing fire, or when you took casualties because your ambush didn't do well or some civilians ratted out on you? How are your irregulars going to be convinced to fight soldiers equipped with modern stuff holding Lee-Enfields like the Afghanis had to? Your fighters stop believing in the cause, they start thinking that maybe it's better to just live their lives in peace, and your guerilla starts losing members and stops getting new ones.

And I won't even mention the need of government support in one form or another, because in modern days it's very hard to do well even with the best of tactics if you don't have good ways to receive proper rifles, MANPADs and anti-tank missiles.

There's way too much about this type of fighting to ever put into a forum post, but in conclusion, I see no way that a sizable or relevant Ukrainian guerilla movement would rise, and even if it did, I do not believe it would be very successful owing to the multitude of these factors.

 

[Male Idiot]

They got Zelensky and the Ghost of Kyiiyiyiyiyv.

So basically two Leaders and the great gods of Homoglobo and Soros.

 

[borsabil]

So what's happened now? Anything noteworthy?

Ukraine lost. Lots of cope.