War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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[Replacement Account]

I think the Ukrainians are doing rather well, and with the level of Russian fuckups could continue to do so, but a lot will hinge on how retarded Russia plans to be over the winter.

As it stands, their logistics and equipping of the mobilized men has been pretty poor so it leaves one of two things to do a) leave all your conscripts in a ditch somewhere as a defence during winter. Their frozen bodies will possibly slow down the Ukrainians of b) Use the lessened conflict of the winter when you possibly won't need as many soldiers to you know, actually try to train and arm them?

I'm not sure as to the current state of Ukrainian equipment, but I know they have also been receiving winter gear from other countries- at least from one of the L-balts, but I forget which. If they're geared up enough then they could actually have some minor successes during the winter between the autumn mud and spring thaw.

Then again, rain season is first, and whilst it doesn't affect the entire country equally it'll still have an effect.

 

[Ghostse]

Time is not a Ukrainian ally?

Time is not a Russian ally. Russians are not good about using their time.

As you point out below, Russia has been fucking up since forever.
Russia can continue to fuck up indefinitely, because that's all they're used to. All they need to do is catch Ukraine slipping once.
Because while we're having a good laugh at the Russian military's collapse, remember that this just Ukraine taking back a portion of what Russia stole, and paying in blood for it.

The Russian people wanted Putin to bring back the glory days of the USSR. And it looks like mad-lad will actually do it.
Oh, not the Global Superpower and international prestige. Nothing external.
I mean all the internal things. The bare shelves in stores and - Coming Soon - ill-fitting shoes with rotted leather.

VHS from the past, or vision of Russia's future?

There are two possible explanations for this:

1. Maybe Russia was intentionally trying to sell the Republicans a bunch of shit and they were indifferent as to whether the Republicans won or lost.
2. Maybe Russia thought that was a pretty good haul.

Either explanation says something about the Russian character circa 1936, and based on what we've seen here, their national character has not changed in 86 years.

You assume its not both.

Like I know the US is offloading our used shit on the Ukrainians, but American used shit is like... stuff made 20 years ago that has been cared for and still works, not stuff made for the Korean War that's been sitting in a leaky shed for 70 years.

The only thing wrong with American surplus hardware is it is old (and I guess whatever was wrong with it when it was new)
The defense budget is so bloated because when the military buys anything, they don't just buy a plane or tank, they buy a contract for 10 years worth of consumable parts. And since soldiers are paid salaries and not by the hour or by the job, no reason not to have the guys in the motor pool overhauling engines as soon as they hit their replacement threshold so everything is maintained to spec. (It also ensures there is lots of peacetime training and learning going on so during war everyone's familiar with these maintenance tasks). DoD bean counters are extremely anal, and any overages must be accounted for and sold at public auction, so there is very little opportunity for graft like you see in Russia, meaning you might as well put the spare parts in the systems like you are supposed to.
The other thing this maintenance contract creates is a parts market. This means when you get your hands on old American military hardware, there are also companies that are probably still making spare parts.

The fact Shermans were being used by other countries upto the 70s means private owners can still get new old stock Sherman parts.

This is why you have things like F-4s that were given as military aid still flying despite the design being damn near 70 years old.

 

[NSA]

It's a smart move for the Uks to capture as much territory as they can before winter. Russia has a bad habit of smashing out windows and then letting general winter do the war crime for them, so the fewer Uks under their control when the cold weather hits, the better.

 

[FunPosting101]

@Ghostse, I would say that the weakest part of your argument is trying to draw a comparison between this war and ww2, you'd be better off trying to compare this war with other offensive wars Russia has started. Your strongest argument is about the possibility of foreign support for Ukraine waning as winter arrives.

Specifically, I don't know if the average German is really willing to risk freezing for the sake of Ukraine. If Germany decides to not allow supplies to the Ukrainians to travel through their territory, Ukraine's logistic situation gets a lot worse.

 

[Freshly Baked Socks]

2 Russians who reached Alaska’s St. Lawrence Island were trying to avoid military service​

 

[No. 7 cat]

@The Demon Pimp of Razgriz

that depends on whether the current administration remains in power
if they somehow get ousted and replaced, russia could restore its international relations to pre war levels (and even to pre 2014 levels) relatively quickly i think

If someone like the highly capable Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiullina became president, a sort of oligarch's president for whom the business of Russia is business (to repurpose some words of Woodrow Wilson), things could perhaps move on. Even tho various businesses slaver after Russian resources, there would have to be a real break with Putinism, not just a pretend retirement and rotation of sort to a fake and gay Medvedev term (Medvedev is gay himself but Putin found the puppet master role intolerable) or high Shaman Shoigu, for Russia to come back from the cold, for normalcy to return. Even Nvidia seems to be set to quit.

​

 

[Snekposter]

If someone like the highly capable Central Bank Chair Elvira Nabiullina became president, a sort of oligarch's president for whom the business of Russia is business (to repurpose some words of Woodrow Wilson), things could perhaps move on. Even tho various businesses slaver after Russian resources, there would have to be a real break with Putinism, not just a pretend retirement and rotation of sort to a fake and gay Medvedev term (Medvedev is gay himself but Putin found the puppet master role intolerable) or high Shaman Shoigu, for Russia to come back from the cold, for normalcy to return. Even Nvidia seems to be set to quit.

​

That would require a Russian leader to desire something other than going to back to the days of Catherine the Great, when a sex-crazed Kraut was running the show.

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

@Ghostse, I would say that the weakest part of your argument is trying to draw a comparison between this war and ww2, you'd be better off trying to compare this war with other offensive wars Russia has started. Your strongest argument is about the possibility of foreign support for Ukraine waning as winter arrives.

Specifically, I don't know if the average German is really willing to risk freezing for the sake of Ukraine. If Germany decides to not allow supplies to the Ukrainians to travel through their territory, Ukraine's logistic situation gets a lot worse.

The Yanks can fly things to Ukraine. Also, they can land war materials in Poland to ship to Ukraine. Also, with how much ammo and gear Russian forces have left behind as they run with their tails between their legs, Ukraine isn't running out of stuff anytime soon:

Russia complains about Western arms flowing into Ukraine, but Putin's troops are giving Kyiv far more heavy weaponry as they retreat

Russian President Vladimir Putin and other top Russian government officials have long complained about the West and the decision to arm Ukraine. They have made little attempt to hide this frustration, even threatening escalation and warning that the conflict could expand.

But as Ukrainian forces continue their weeks-long counteroffensive, advancing along the war's northeastern front and in the south, retreating Russian troops have left behind mountains of weaponry, equipment, and ammunition in their wake.

Not to mention that even the best Russian units like the Wagner Group have seen their morale plummet to catastrophic lows, to the point where $5000 a month isn't enough to convince these guys to keep up the fight:

Morale is plummeting in Putin's private army as Russia's war in Ukraine falters

Wagner’s struggles in Ukraine have set in motion a wider problem: discontent in its ranks. For a group that depends on the appeal of its salaries and work, that’s critical.

From intercepted phone calls, Ukrainian intelligence services in August noted a “general decline in morale and the psychological state” of Wagner troops, Ukrainian defense intelligence spokesman Yusov said. It’s a trend he’s also seen in Russian troops more broadly.

The reduction in Wagner recruitment requirements point to demoralization too, he said, and the number of “truly professional soldiers who are willing to volunteer to fight with Wagner” is also decreasing.

Ex-commander Gabidullin, who says he talks to his old comrades on an almost daily basis, explained that this demoralization was due to their dissatisfaction “with the overall organization of the fighting: [the Russian leadership’s] inability to make competent decisions, to organize battles.”

So the big problem is, how can Russia's army continue to operate without collapsing?

And don't tell me "nukes". The moment Russia starts using nukes, the west fires back, and they only need two to obliterate most of Russia:

Those two population spikes are Moscow and Saint Petersburg. Any nation with more than one nuke has the capacity to destroy 99% of Russian civilization. The moment the nukes start flying, the Russians will be the first to bite the dust.

They keep beating the drum on the whole "we have enough nukes to render your countries uninhabitable" nonsense, despite the fact that most of their nation is a winter wasteland with only two population centers worth writing home about. Take those two population centers out, and there will be little left of Russia outside of snow, small pockets of survivors, and death.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

@Ghostse, I would say that the weakest part of your argument is trying to draw a comparison between this war and ww2, you'd be better off trying to compare this war with other offensive wars Russia has started. Your strongest argument is about the possibility of foreign support for Ukraine waning as winter arrives.

Specifically, I don't know if the average German is really willing to risk freezing for the sake of Ukraine. If Germany decides to not allow supplies to the Ukrainians to travel through their territory, Ukraine's logistic situation gets a lot worse.

This freezing shit irks me. What I would really expect to happen is rationing electricity and stuff like that for a while, doubt they're in real danger of suffering from cold. Considering it doesn't get all that cold there to begin with.

 

[Snekposter]

This freezing shit irks me. What I would really expect to happen is rationing electricity and stuff like that for a while, doubt they're in real danger of suffering from cold. Considering it doesn't get all that cold there to begin with.

You'd be surprised. Its not Russia cold (or even Midwestern USA cold) but Stuttgart drops down to a daily mean of less than 50F starting this month. Things will be hitting freezing at night next month, and won't warm up until March. Cologne is going to be barely above freezing until April. Berlin is almost as cold as Stuttgart. Aachen is going to be in the 30's from December until Feb, and its got borderline French climate. Things have the potential to get very, very bad if steps aren't taken, especially since the Germans were thinking they'd be able to get cheap Russian gas for heating until the end of time and planned and built accordingly.

 

[FunPosting101]

The Yanks can fly things to Ukraine. Also, they can land war materials in Poland to ship to Ukraine. Also, with how much ammo and gear Russian forces have left behind as they run with their tails between their legs, Ukraine isn't running out of stuff anytime soon:

Russia complains about Western arms flowing into Ukraine, but Putin's troops are giving Kyiv far more heavy weaponry as they retreat

Sure; the US can fly stuff in, there's various ways to supply Ukraine. Losing the most efficient supply line is still a serious problem for the Ukrainians. Relying on captured enemy supplies, weapons, ammunition, etc, is fine in the short-term. In the long-term though? It's not going to be enough on it's own.

I just don't know how long Ukraine can reasonably last given that their ability to keep fighting as hard as they are is at least partially dependent on outside aid. As @Ghostse said; relying on the continued incompetence of your enemy is not necessarily a great strategy, even if it is the best one that Ukraine has right now.

 

[♦️ King of Diamonds ♦️]

As bad as the Cuban Missile Crisis, you say?

Funny thing is Kennedy and Krushchev had vivid and painful memories of living through WW2 and the desire to prevent something like that from ever happening again was part of the reason why cooler heads prevailed. Both of them also werent in their fucking 70's and 80's and came from a hardier, more rational generation than the fucking #Boomerwaffen

also like how all the Russian Military General Staff's reaction to recently inexcusable battlefield fuck-ups is to basically roast the defense minister with the equivalent of Xbox Live voicechat
"OmGHAXX0RZ you're such a fucking n00b u should totes kill yurself fAget roflmao XD"

What a complete fucking clownshow circus. Strelkov is my spirit animal

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

Sure; the US can fly stuff in, there's various ways to supply Ukraine. Losing the most efficient supply line is still a serious problem for the Ukrainians. Relying on captured enemy supplies, weapons, ammunition, etc, is fine in the short-term. In the long-term though? It's not going to be enough on it's own.

Again, planes, and they don't need to get all the way to Ukraine. Shipping it all to Poland would be a good enough stuff. It's not a serious problem for the United States.

I just don't know how long Ukraine can reasonably last given that their ability to keep fighting as hard as they are is at least partially dependent on outside aid. As @Ghostse said; relying on the continued incompetence of your enemy is not necessarily a great strategy, even if it is the best one that Ukraine has right now.

Except all Russia can do is offer incompetence. Shit, thanks to their forces running away, Ukraine now has even more war materiel, so even if the West stopped, the Ukrainians can hold out for quite some time until summer hits.

And what else can Russia do? Throw more cannon fodder while their men either start riots or leave the country? Soon there won't be enough of a Russia to even fight.

 

[No. 7 cat]

That would require a Russian leader to desire something other than going to back to the days of Catherine the Great, when a sex-crazed Kraut was running the show.

At least Ms Nabiullina is unlikely to die from sex with a horse as happened to that German woman.

 

[FunPosting101]

Again, planes, and they don't need to get all the way to Ukraine. Shipping it all to Poland would be a good enough stuff. It's not a serious problem for the United States.


Except all Russia can do is offer incompetence. Shit, thanks to their forces running away, Ukraine now has even more war materiel, so even if the West stopped, the Ukrainians can hold out for quite some time until summer hits.

And what else can Russia do? Throw more cannon fodder while their men either start riots or leave the country? Soon there won't be enough of a Russia to even fight.

Shipping stuff by air is not as efficient as doing it by ship though. It's whole lot easier to send over a bunch of MLRS/HIMARS/Whatever by boat then it is by plane. As far as Russian incompetence is concerned; I would be wary of assuming that would continue indefinitely. At the start of this thing; we overestimated the Ivans, we should not now make the mistake of underestimating them.

 

[Ghostse]

@Ghostse, I would say that the weakest part of your argument is trying to draw a comparison between this war and ww2, you'd be better off trying to compare this war with other offensive wars Russia has started. Your strongest argument is about the possibility of foreign support for Ukraine waning as winter arrives.

Specifically, I don't know if the average German is really willing to risk freezing for the sake of Ukraine. If Germany decides to not allow supplies to the Ukrainians to travel through their territory, Ukraine's logistic situation gets a lot worse.

WWII orders of battles, especially for the Eastern Front, are still relevant. Da Nahtzees were using combined arms, mechanized infantry, and close air support, and Russia was forced to learn them and adapt.
You can't really compare this to other Russian military operations because this is really the first time Russia is coming back for a second bite at the apple having gotten their toe-hold in Crimea. Because of that, and other factors, this is also the first time Russia is going up against an opponent that has spent nearly a decade getting a copious injection of TRADOC into its armed forces.

It still fucking floors me how Putin snatched defeat from the jaws of Victory. He'd pulled off a nearly bloodless military expansion into Crimea, which the international community was allowing him to keep in every sense except for the one that required redrawing maps. And because NATO membership requires all borders be settled, it would have kept Ukraine out of NATO (Which is probably why it was allowed to stand). They could have bought off Ukrainian politicians - just not as cheaply as before - and generally gotten back to business as normal.

 

[FunPosting101]

WWII orders of battles, especially for the Eastern Front, are still relevant. Da Nahtzees were using combined arms, mechanized infantry, and close air support, and Russia was forced to learn them and adapt.
You can't really compare this to other Russian military operations because this is really the first time Russia is coming back for a second bite at the apple having gotten their toe-hold in Crimea. Because of that, and other factors, this is also the first time Russia is going up against an opponent that has spent nearly a decade getting a copious injection of TRADOC into its armed forces.

Fair enough, but I was honestly thinking about how; in a lot of ways, the eastern front of WWII was a battle for survival for most of the population of eastern europe. This Ukrainian invasion; by contrast, is more about Russian national interests and Putin's ego. I honestly don't know if the average Russian really cares all that much if their nation wins this war or not, all online trolling and chest-thumping aside. Given that, would they really be willing to put in the necessary effort to git gud at modern war?

It still fucking floors me how Putin snatched defeat from the jaws of Victory. He'd pulled off a nearly bloodless military expansion into Crimea, which the international community was allowing him to keep in every sense except for the one that required redrawing maps. And because NATO membership requires all borders be settled, it would have kept Ukraine out of NATO (Which is probably why it was allowed to stand). They could have bought off Ukrainian politicians - just not as cheaply as before - and generally gotten back to business as normal.

If I had to guess, the Ukrainians cutting off the flow of water to Crimea was what ultimately led to Putin ordering this invasion. Which sorta makes sense in terms of real-politick, but then the question is why not try and bribe the Ukrainian government first?

 

[Uranus Pink]

Reminder, gentlemen, that the Lend Lease aid has just only arrived recently, so whatever Ukraine is currently doing will be even more powerful and effective. As some of you gentlemen predicted, Ukraine is on a race to liberate as much land as possible before winter, so expect to see even more offensives from the Ukies for the remainder of this month

Lend-Lease isn't just for Ukraine but for every country involved in supporting Ukraine. As much of it is for ramping up and switching from peace to war production and that cost contracts needing to be signed and $$$ payed out to the relevant parties. Which is something Uncle Sugar's word and $$$ is solid to all whom is concerned.
Edit: FPS games got nothing next to real life. Try counting the number of different camo patterns in this Ukrainian next to front line video.

Spoiler

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Shipping stuff by air is not as efficient as doing it by ship though. It's whole lot easier to send over a bunch of MLRS/HIMARS/Whatever by boat then it is by plane.

Well then good thing Poland has a coast, shares a border with Ukraine AND isn't as wishy-washy as the krautoids are.

 

[Snekposter]

Fair enough, but I was honestly thinking about how; in a lot of ways, the eastern front of WWII was a battle for survival for most of the population of eastern europe. This Ukrainian invasion; by contrast, is more about Russian national interests and Putin's ego. I honestly don't know if the average Russian really cares all that much if their nation wins this war or not, all online trolling and chest-thumping aside. Given that, would they really be willing to put in the necessary effort to git gud at modern war?

Considering how many have fled the country? I think the primary concern of Russians is not dying now that Putin has announced mobilization and it isn't just the ones stupid or naïve enough to "volunteer" to enlist that are looking at winding up on the front lines.