War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article

 

[Snekposter]

But Ukraine has already launched attacks, including missile strikes, drone strikes, manned aircraft strikes and SOF raids into both Crimea and Russia proper.

Anyone else remember those helicopter raids on fuel depots and the like? I think so long as Ukraine doesn't actually invade Russia Putin won't be able to call for any sort of Great Patriotic War nonsense. Not that I don't think Ukraine shouldn't at least threaten a counter-invasion to make him sweat, if they are able to drive the Russians all the way back to their borders. Which they definitely look to be doing in Donbass. Personally I'm surprised we haven't seen some guys in Jeeps running around Russian territory blasting anything that belongs to the Russian government now that the border has been secured just to drive the point home to people about the war progress. A few Cossacks on a raid aren't an invasion, but Putin can't call them out without admitting that the war situation has not necessarily progressed to Russia's advantage.

 

[Rezza]

I'm reading the US report as them trying to signal to the Moscow elites that Ukraine, with the backing of US, can target anyone of them should they continue to support Putin and Kremlin
"Yes, it was Ukraine, and yes they happily could and would do it again. So, it's Putin or your lives?"

 

[KiwiFuzz]

Putin throws people out of windows every day, he sends assassins to kill people abroad, he sends people to bomb civilians, he sends people to die on his behalf.

One rich bitch gets it and all of a sudden the man has principles?

Please.

 

[76LD910]

Reminder, gentlemen, that the Lend Lease aid has just only arrived recently, so whatever Ukraine is currently doing will be even more powerful and effective.

To add to this: the total value of US supplied weapon systems (not aid, or replacements for other nations sending their own equipment) delivered so far stands at about 1/4 of the amount pledged.

Denys Davydov on his Telegram channel with a clip of Russians surrendering. He has no information on the location.

Its being widely speculated that this was staged as some kind of psy-ops or demonstration of how to surrender, if its the latter its a shit example even if it happened to be a real surrender they captured on film.

They clearly knew the were coming via making contact on radio or some other means because there was a guy filming their approach, yet assuming these are actually Russians surrendering in the field why the fuck would you allow them to roll up on infantry in a BMP rather than tell them to leave their weapons inside and walk the final distance ?

 

[potato fan]

They clearly knew the were coming via making contact on radio or some other means because there was a guy filming their approach,

there's been a surrendering hotline for months

yet assuming these are actually Russians surrendering in the field why the fuck would you allow them to roll up on infantry in a BMP rather than tell them to leave their weapons inside and walk the final distance ?

I dont think they can communicate that well with a driver who is inside armored vehicle with very little situational awareness

of course it might have been just a training on how to intercept a surrendering vehicle, or just a propaganda fake

 

[Ghostse]

To add to this: the total value of US supplied weapon systems (not aid, or replacements for other nations sending their own equipment) delivered so far stands at about 1/4 of the amount pledged.



Its being widely speculated that this was staged as some kind of psy-ops or demonstration of how to surrender, if its the latter its a shit example even if it happened to be a real surrender they captured on film.

They clearly knew the were coming via making contact on radio or some other means because there was a guy filming their approach, yet assuming these are actually Russians surrendering in the field why the fuck would you allow them to roll up on infantry in a BMP rather than tell them to leave their weapons inside and walk the final distance ?

Fuck this thread moves fast, and I was going to say the same: This seemed way too clean , the crew of the BMP too compliant. It was really quiet too, no normal front line noise, and just a single BMP with driver and two crew showing up.
To me, this really felt like a training exercise.

OTOH, has @potato fan points out, there has been open communication lines for surrendering + a bounty for surrendering with equipment. There also wasn't a second team standing near by observing, and there wasn't a lot of BMP tracks from going around to come back.

The biggest red flag (white flag?) for me is there didn't seem to be any obvious landmarks or a clear rally area to direct the surrendering Russians to. (counter point: maybe there were, they just weren't in-frame. Or the crew directed to just drive along a road.) The BMP also just sort of rounds this corner, no long shot of the thing approaching.

 

[SBG]

Its being widely speculated that this was staged as some kind of psy-ops or demonstration of how to surrender, if its the latter its a shit example even if it happened to be a real surrender they captured on film.

They clearly knew the were coming via making contact on radio or some other means because there was a guy filming their approach, yet assuming these are actually Russians surrendering in the field why the fuck would you allow them to roll up on infantry in a BMP rather than tell them to leave their weapons inside and walk the final distance ?

This is one of the first wars where the people fighting may have each other's phone numbers. Makes everything a bit weird.

With this being a staged surrender, that could still be useful for pointing out to others that also plan out a surrender on how the Ukrainians want it done.

 

[Ghostse]

Yeah, and Ukraine is going to have 6 months to sit in their corner and rebuild the logistics and infrastructure in recaptured areas, 6 months to rest their weary troops, 6 months to lay in reserves of munitions from Europe for the next offense. It isn't just that both sides are going to call up and train reserves, but which side will have more veterans with which to train them and integrate them into existing units. As near as I can tell we've got a boxer with a few open cuts that can be glued shut relatively easily next to one that's taken a few heavy body blows to the ribs. Which set of injuries are going to be more crippling (and indeed, who is who) will only be determined when the bell for round 2 rings. But I do maintain that Ukraine is going to be able to make better on their losses than Russia, simply because they're in a better position to start with to do so thanks to Western aid, especially since all those Soviet stockpiles are of dubious quality thanks to decades of poor storage.

As to special forces, Ukrainian ones have been putting up a surprisingly good fight even now, and they're going to use that breather as best they can. I'm sure there's plenty of Ukie vets who will be volunteering to serve as replacements in those ranks, and that's 6 months to replenish them. How many people are going to be volunteering to serve in Spetsnaz or VDV after what a disastrous showing they put up early on? As for air superiority, not if the weather is bad such as with rain or fog, and that goes double for Russian fighters with limited flight hours and poor instrumentation. Not that Ukraine is much, if any better in that regard, but its ultimately going to be a wash.

If Russia was not currently getting its shit pushed in actively at a rapid pace, I'd agree with you that the winter down time it'd mostly be a wash. But as they are currently in retreat, a pause in battle is going to give the Russians valuable time to clear their heads, recover and redeploy.
I guess a lot of it will also depend on what Ukraine is able to take before its too cold to fight. If Ukraine is able to control (or at least deny russian control; eg arty range) rail corridors to Russian forward deployment areas, Russia won't be able to keep those forward areas supplied through the winter and they'll be forced to give them up and retreat to areas they can supply.
Any place that Ukraine can't achieve this, anywhere the functional Russian Rail Supply can reach, the Russian forces there will almost certainly be stronger (or at least more numerous) when the fighting picks up next spring.

Ukraine's logistics have actually been really good, and amazing when we grade on the Slav curve. I don't know if anyone is more surprised by that than myself. Russia's rail supply has also been going very well, because there is a separate military command just for military rail supply and much like their nuke branch, it is staffed and lead by professionals not concripts.
Where Russia's logistics have been falling apart is when the cargo leaves the trains, that crucial last mile.

Ukraine's advantages will be 6 months to get western equipment in place and to get crews trained. But that's also 6 quiet months for the population to start getting tired of war. There will be no big victories to galvanize support at home, and likely no new Russian atrocities to get the population's blood boiling.

Russia has the potential to come out in the spring absolutely lethal - 6 months to train more soldiers, get them kitted, transported and ready for war.
But if this current situation has taught us anything, its not to underestimate Russia's ability to punch itself in the dick instead of doing the smart thing.

Where is this presumption that Russia will get to sit still through winter and lick its wounds? The Ukrainians will likely make the most of the Russia's lack of winter preparedness and put the screws even harder to them. There's a good chance winter will be what breaks the conscripts.

tl;dr Maybe they'll fight a winter war, but my assumption is with a smaller force that they aren't treating a completely expendable cannon fodder, they won't want to take on the cold weather casualties. But who knows.

Killing zelensky is a grey area as he is the leader of the country and a big part of the war effort.

Killing leadership is usually a big no-no. Not only because the elites don't like it when the normies kill them and maybe start getting ideas, but killing the leaders means you don't have anyone to negotiate surrender with and tell the troops to lay down their arms.

But Ukraine has already launched attacks, including missile strikes, drone strikes, manned aircraft strikes and SOF raids into both Crimea and Russia proper.

Like they have already leveled an airbase in Crimea.

But pre-2014 borders, that includes Crimea. Putin likes to call Crimea a part of Russia but no one else agrees
And nothing has been proven about Ukrainian hits on Russia soil.

A thing we need to remember is that vatniks, at least the ones on the Western side, don't even care about Nazis. Hell, most of them even like them.

The only reason they're cheering on Russia is because they hate wokism/globohomo/gays/trannies/liberals/minorities/immigrants/etc, and would literally rather throw away how good they have it, and how good everyone else has it just so they don't have to put up with people that are different from them anymore.

Make no mistake, these people genuinely think they have it terrible here, and everyone hates them because they're white/hetero/cis/conservative/male/etc, when in reality it's because they're incredibly spoiled, stupid, and spiteful, and openly boast about betraying their country to join a far worse one where they, and everyone else will be treated like shit, but at least the classes they hate will be treated worse.

They are like Tankies praising the CCP who don't realize that even if we put aside them being completely marginalized for being Gweilos, if they got their glorious communist paradise their constant griping about the government not being perfect would get them put in the prisons to peel garlic for 16 hours a day.

My respect for Putin for telling globohomo to go and fuck right off ends at Russia troops crossing their borders.

Dude, this is Russia. Those conscripts are going to have the shittiest training in the world, no morale, and will probably either break ranks or surrender to the Ukrainians at the earliest opportunity; their Cold War era tech will be barely functional, because they either don't have the components to repair most of it, its broken beyond repair, or corruption will ensure that any resources going towards repair will be squandered; they won't be able to rebuild ammo supplies because the Ukrainians are cutting off all the best routes for resupply and will continue to use artillery to hit their ammo dumps. And the if the Russians weren't protecting their dumps before, they are not going to start doing so now. And all of this is not even taking into account the fact that the Russian forces probably don't even have winter equipment to give most of their troops.

You are making a lot of assumptions that Putin & Co allows the war to continue to be mismanaged.
While if I was a betting man that is the bet I would place, its also a very dangerous state of complacency to find ones self in. Imagine how hard of a time Ukraine would be having if Russia wasn't constantly punching itself in the dick on every level except physical. And sometimes also physical.

Ukraine has already carried out open attacks on the Russian side of the border. And Russian artillery fire has dropped off massively since the daily high from a few months ago, both due to lack of ammo and their guns just breaking down due to being overworked. And by all reports, most of their fire was so wildly inaccurate, it didn't even hit anything. Meanwhile, the Russian Air Force has been decimated by Ukrainian AA and the UAF. If the Russians attempt anymore attacks, they just lose more planes.

When you are Ukraine, even if Russian artillery misses anything of military value, they still hit you.

Once again, the Russians lack air superiority and won't be launching any massive attacks anytime soon. If anything, the delays will put more pressure on Putin, considering he's already called up a general mobilization, straining Russia's already collapsing economy and putting thousands of young men needlessly in harm's way, who will now sit out the winter on a static front line.

I'm still seeing lots of low-level Su-25s and barely-crossing-the-border strikes by Russia. But really the main value is it keeping Ukraine from being able to strike.

Once again, Russia does not have air supremacy over Ukraine; they don't even have air superiority.

You are correct, I used the wrong term. But the point still stands - Ukraine will have a lot of equipment vulnerable to airstrikes in spring. Russia being able to exploit that vulnerability is another point entirely, and Russia will not be subject that same vulnerability. Granted Ukraine didn't need airstrikes to curb stomp stuck Russian armor this last spring, but one might presume Russia will have learned at least some lessons.

Russia's elite forces were decimated in the conflict's opening months.

Fair point. The Little Green Men found the Ukrainian forces ready for them this time.

And finally, everything you claim applies to Russia, actually applies to Ukraine. Any stoppage in the fighting only give Ukraine more time to: a) train more troops, which the British are helping out a lot with, and b) stockpile more supplies given to them by the West. And depletions in manpower will be fixed, supplies will be filled, and new weapons systems will be brought online. This is not even getting into what Ukraine salvaged after these most recent offensives, where the Russians literally abandoned everything from Rifles to tanks as they retreated from their positions.

Just because a situation disproportionately favors doesn't mean Ukraine can't also get some benefit.
They also gain time to consolidate, true. And they would likely want a time out to sort their own shit, but not while they still have the momentum. I did point out that Ukraine will have time get more training on western weapon systems, but since they have been sending troops to other countries for training(ie safe from Russian strikes) this isn't really a huge boon.

I'm not really seeing winter to be a huge stategic asset to either side, being both sides are used it.
But I suppose if we've been learning anything, its not to underestimate Russia's ability to fuck up.

And while Ukraine is capturing lots of war supplies, remember they are capturing it from Russia.

Time is not on Russia's side, as the longer this drags on, the stronger Ukraine gets, as more of its reserves are trained and activated, and the west begins ramping up arms production so that Ukraine will get even more supplies. While the Russian economy sputters to a stop, and the Russians begin running out of equipment, gear, and vehicles because they can't fix, maintain, or build more forces on account of the embargoes.

Strongly disagree. The difference is Russia has lost zero percent of its industrial and agricultural production while Ukraine got some very solid wacks to industrial concerns and the war is in their industrial and argicultural zone, to speak nothing of loss of ports (the ports thing, TBF is counter-balanced by Russia making themselves an international pariah). The longer things go on, the more economic damage is done to Ukraine and the further into the future recovery is pushed.

Ukraine is also being propped up by the US/EU - this is not a slight on Ukraine given the size difference with their invader I am just stating facts. If that support stopped, Ukraine would be in an untenable situation.

Right now, supporting Ukraine is popular, approval for backing Ukraine is through the roof. Everyone loves backing an underdog against a bully, and they especially love an underdog when they are winning.
The longer the war goes on, the higher the odds the populations of US/EU will get tired of sending billions of dollars to a foreign conflict. Once that support dries up, Ukraine would be in a pretty bad pickle.

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

Who gives a fuck at this point. In war some people surrendering is an inevitability. A ruzzian squad or platoon turning themselves in by itself changes nothing, even if a thousand platoons turning themselves inwould do quite something. I'm sure if you asked the vatniks would be able to show you some videos of surrendering Ukrainians (Azovstal anyone?), but that's not indicative of a dumpster fire of them surrendering in droves. Let's just wait for the Ukrainian government to say something like "in the month of October over 9000 ruzzians turned themselves in"

With this being a staged surrender, that could still be useful for pointing out to others that also plan out a surrender on how the Ukrainians want it done.

 

[SBG]

Who gives a fuck at this point. In war some people surrendering is an inevitability. A ruzzian squad or platoon turning themselves in by itself changes nothing, even if a thousand platoons turning themselves inwould do quite something. I'm sure if you asked the vatniks would be able to show you some videos of surrendering Ukrainians (Azovstal anyone?), but that's not indicative of a dumpster fire of them surrendering in droves. Let's just wait for the Ukrainian government to say something like "in the month of October over 9000 ruzzians turned themselves in"

It's still interesting HOW people are surrendering and wondering the circumstances of it.

They're comfortable enough to try and create propaganda videos of Russians surrendering which itself says a lot about how well these surrenders are going, since it'd be difficult to coordinate a video to explain how a surrender should go if they weren't happening regularly.

 

[Ghostse]

Who gives a fuck at this point. In war some people surrendering is an inevitability. A ruzzian squad or platoon turning themselves in by itself changes nothing, even if a thousand platoons turning themselves inwould do quite something. I'm sure if you asked the vatniks would be able to show you some videos of surrendering Ukrainians (Azovstal anyone?), but that's not indicative of a dumpster fire of them surrendering in droves. Let's just wait for the Ukrainian government to say something like "in the month of October over 9000 ruzzians turned themselves in"

You aren't exactly wrong, but the counter point is that Russia brought the war to Ukraine. They are invading. You'd expect to see an invader taking surrender from overrun defenders. You don't expect to see the defenders taking prisoners of an attacking force, unless the attack has completely failed.

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

How many losses is it going to take for Russians to reconsider this whole thing? Putin is just going to keep sending more meat into the grinder as long as they let him.
All this talk about "Defending the motherland", but from fucking what? No one attacked us, we are the aggressor. The supposed Western threat only exists in the heads of vatniks, mostly thanks to Putin's propaganda that revived anti-Western sentiment of the Cold War era that had all but died by the early 2000s.
I'm afraid that absence of independent media is going to ensure that Putin's electorate remains docile and ignorant of the reality on the front.

At this rate I'll have to leave this country like so many others along with whatever sanity remained.

If there was a new Ruslan Zinin every other day, it wouldn't take long for the war to end. Every Zigger with the courage to fight for his insane convictions is already at the front or dead. The ones at home are cowards or too old to fight.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

@Ghostse

You are making a lot of assumptions that Putin & Co allows the war to continue to be mismanaged.

Any assumptions I'm making are really informed assumptions based on Russia's own conduct in this war up to this point. Russia has literally fucked this war up on every level, and there is no indication that they are going to clean up their act. If anything, the situation is continuing to devolve for them in record time.

Imagine how hard of a time Ukraine would be having if Russia wasn't constantly punching itself in the dick on every level except physical.

But they are punching themselves in the dick, and they continue to do so on a daily basis. And there is no indication that the punching will stop anytime soon.

When you are Ukraine, even if Russian artillery misses anything of military value, they still hit you.

Militarily speaking, hitting a bunch of open fields doesn't help Russia at all. In fact, it only hurts them, as they waste ammunition and wear out their artillery guns faster for no gain.

I'm still seeing lots of low-level Su-25s and barely-crossing-the-border strikes by Russia. But really the main value is it keeping Ukraine from being able to strike.

Those types of strikes won't accomplish much and aren't accomplishing much. Russia's inability to truly hit anything of consequence deep in the country and the constant attrition or irreplaceable aircraft have crippled their air response, and nothing recent indicates a change to the status quo.

Granted Ukraine didn't need airstrikes to curb stomp stuck Russian armor this last spring, but one might presume Russia will have learned at least some lessons.

And in that you presume too much. Russia hasn't learned anything in the last 20 years of conflicts its fought, let alone the last five months. We've seen no real shift of change in Russian strategy since the war started. Even now, Russia mounts a pointless offensive on the Donbass front even as their northern and southern flank continue to collapse. I don't even think Russia's high command even knows what to do at this point.

And they would likely want a time out to sort their own shit, but not while they still have the momentum.

Actually, considering the sheer amount of land Ukraine has retaken recently, they will probably need to halt offensive operations soon anyway just to consolidate their gains. Momentum is on their side, but there is a hard limit to how much you can push that in modern warfare before you overextend yourself.

And while Ukraine is capturing lots of war supplies, remember they are capturing it from Russia.

Any supplies is good supplies. What can't be used immediately can be scavenged for armor, scrap, parts, etc. Anything that can prepped for usage now will get sent right back to the front. Russia's loss is Ukraine's gain either way.

Strongly disagree. The difference is Russia has lost zero percent of its industrial and agricultural production while Ukraine got some very solid wacks to industrial concerns and the war is in their industrial and argicultural zone, to speak nothing of loss of ports (the ports thing, TBF is counter-balanced by Russia making themselves an international pariah). The longer things go on, the more economic damage is done to Ukraine and the further into the future recovery is pushed.

Russia's industrial capacity is immaterial because it simply lacks the tools, know-how, and technology to produce what they need. This is the same country that has to import nails. Their advanced weapons are created using European tech they no longer have access to. We are already seen the Russians turning to the likes of North Korea and Iran to import equipment. Ukraine's economy is being propped up by the rest of the world, while Russia's economy is imploding because its basically been shut out of the world economy.

Ukraine is also being propped up by the US/EU - this is not a slight on Ukraine given the size difference with their invader I am just stating facts. If that support stopped, Ukraine would be in an untenable situation.

Right now, supporting Ukraine is popular, approval for backing Ukraine is through the roof. Everyone loves backing an underdog against a bully, and they especially love an underdog when they are winning.
The longer the war goes on, the higher the odds the populations of US/EU will get tired of sending billions of dollars to a foreign conflict. Once that support dries up, Ukraine would be in a pretty bad pickle.

There is no indication whatsoever that U.S. or European populations are tired of support Ukraine. Just the opposite in fact; support for Ukraine is utterly enthusiastic, even in Germany, whose government is the most lukewarm to the idea. Everyone remains strong, and the more the Ukrainians actually win, the more enthusiastic the support gets. Ukraine's support in the west remains strong as ever. Meanwhile, Russia is a literal pariah state and will remain such even after the war ends.

 

[DumbDude43]

@The Demon Pimp of Razgriz

Meanwhile, Russia is a literal pariah state and will remain such even after the war ends.

that depends on whether the current administration remains in power
if they somehow get ousted and replaced, russia could restore its international relations to pre war levels (and even to pre 2014 levels) relatively quickly i think

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

@Ghostse

You are making a lot of assumptions that Putin & Co allows the war to continue to be mismanaged.
While if I was a betting man that is the bet I would place, its also a very dangerous state of complacency to find ones self in. Imagine how hard of a time Ukraine would be having if Russia wasn't constantly punching itself in the dick on every level except physical. And sometimes also physical.

If it was any other way, it wouldn't have been Russia. That's the thing. This IS Russia at its russiest.
To unfuck the mess that is Russian army right now would take years. Ukraine managed to build an army because they were both motivated and had actual professionals helping them train, Russia doesn't really have that, as far as I know.

Oh btw, the Zombiearm-Man got treated, good news!

 

[Lester Jones]

Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say.

www.wsj.com

Ukraine’s New Offensive Is Fueled by Captured Russian Weapons​

Spoiler: Article

KUPYANSK, Ukraine—Captured and abandoned Russian tanks, howitzers and fighting vehicles—quickly scrubbed of their Z tactical markers and repainted with Ukrainian crosses—are being turned against their former owners as Ukraine’s military advances in the eastern part of the country.

Ukraine’s rapid breakthrough in the Kharkiv region a month ago ended up putting hundreds of pieces of Russian armor into Kyiv’s hands, military officials say, as the Russian army left behind its heavy weapons and warehouses of supplies in a disorganized retreat.

Some Russian pieces of equipment were ready for immediate use, while others are being repaired to return to the front. Tanks, vehicles and guns too damaged to salvage are being cannibalized for spare parts. Crucially, Russia has also left behind large quantities of Soviet-standard artillery shells that had nearly run out in Ukraine.

This haul is helping power Ukrainian forces as they retake parts of the eastern Donetsk region, including the town of Lyman, and push further east into nearby Luhansk. Kyiv has regained more than 4,000 square miles of land in the east over the past month, in addition to advances in the south.

One Ukrainian battalion, the Carpathian Sich, seized 10 modern T-80 tanks and five 2S5 Giatsint 152-mm self-propelled howitzers after it entered the town of Izyum last month, said its deputy chief of staff, Ruslan Andriyko.

“We’ve got so many trophies that we don’t even know what to do with them,” he said. “We started off as an infantry battalion, and now we are sort of becoming a mechanized battalion.”

The chief of staff of a Ukrainian artillery battalion on the Kharkiv front said his unit now operates four recently captured Russian 2S19 Msta 152-mm self-propelled howitzers, alongside American-made guns, and now has abundant Soviet-caliber ammunition.

“The Russians no longer have a firepower advantage. We smashed up all their artillery units before launching the offensive, and then we started to move ahead so fast that they didn’t even have time to fuel up and load their tanks,” said the officer. “They just fled and left everything behind.”

Combined with weapons taken during Russia’s retreat from Kyiv and other parts of northern Ukraine in April, these recent gains have turned Moscow into by far the largest supplier of heavy weapons for Ukraine, well ahead of the U.S. or other allies in sheer numbers, according to open-source intelligence analysts. Western-provided weapons, though, are usually more advanced and precise.

Ukraine has captured 460 Russian main battle tanks, 92 self-propelled howitzers, 448 infantry fighting vehicles, 195 armored fighting vehicles and 44 multiple-launch rocket systems, according to visual evidence compiled from social media and news reports from Oryx, an open-source intelligence consulting firm. The real number is likely higher as not every captured piece of equipment gets filmed.

Not all the gear is cutting edge. “What they are capturing is a mix of modern equipment that they can use quite effectively, and some that really belongs in museums,” said Jakub Janovsky, who compiles the count of weapons losses at Oryx.

Russia has also seized Ukrainian weapons, mostly in the early days of the war as it overran large parts of the country. According to Oryx’s count, Russia captured 109 Ukrainian tanks, 15 self-propelled guns and 63 infantry fighting vehicles since February.

At Izyum, Ukraine gained more advanced Russian armor, such as T-90 tanks and BTR-82 infantry fighting vehicles with automatic cannon. The commander of Ukraine’s 92nd brigade, which played a major role on the Kharkiv front, was filmed this week taking a ride in a T-90, which wasn’t part of the Ukrainian arsenal before the war.

Western allies haven’t sent Western-made tanks to Ukraine. But Kyiv has received around 230 upgraded T-72 tanks from Poland and a few dozen more from the Czech Republic. American and European aid focused on providing Ukraine with North Atlantic Treaty Organization-standard precision artillery, such as the U.S.-made M777 and Paladin, German Panzerhaubitze 2000 and Polish Krab howitzers, as well as the Himars missile systems. These weapons allowed Kyiv to hold the line once it started to run out of Soviet-caliber artillery shells in May.

Ukraine’s experience learning how to operate different weapons systems in a relatively short time has made it easier to repurpose the recently acquired Russian weapons, said Col. Serhiy Cherevatyi of Ukraine’s Operational Command East.

“They are of the Soviet construction school that is easy to understand for us,” he said. “If our people have managed to learn how to use the Panzerhaubitze, the Krabs and the American Paladins, it’s not at all a problem to master the Russian systems that are similar to ours.”

While Ukrainian units often keep smaller captured weapons and ammunition, big-ticket items such as tanks and artillery are usually redistributed through the military’s logistics command, said Oleksiy Danilov, head of the country’s National Security and Defense Council. “But, even then, they usually stay in the same area, which is only fair,” he added.

Carpathian Sich, for example, transferred to other parts of the military captured howitzers and kept tanks for which it could find crews. The battalion commander said these tanks have now been formally allocated to the unit and are regularly supplied by the military’s logistics with ammunition and fuel, and serviced by visiting crews from Ukrainian tank plants. Ukraine was a major tank manufacturer and exporter before the war.

“Gaining the trophies gives us a sense of pride and raises everyone’s combat spirits,” said the commander, who used a captured Russian assault rifle in a recent battle during which the battalion seized a village in the Donetsk region.

Putin just keeps taking Ls!

 

[Titos]

As for revenge, what would that be? Russia is already blowing up populated malls and apartment buildings. As for specific individuals, I seriously doubt there was anyone Russia had ever considered off-limits.

They could specifically target the guys at GSC Gameworld so Stalker 2 never comes out. Probably claim those ebul nadzees were erasing Russian culture. Even though Strugatsky was Georgian.

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

Oh btw, the Zombiearm-Man got treated, good news!

All cool and good but i wish there was a translation of what hes saying

 

[Ghostse]

Any assumptions I'm making are really informed assumptions based on Russia's own conduct in this war up to this point. Russia has literally fucked this war up on every level, and there is no indication that they are going to clean up their act. If anything, the situation is continuing to devolve for them in record time.

If it was any other way, it wouldn't have been Russia. That's the thing. This IS Russia at its russiest.
To unfuck the mess that is Russian army right now would take years. Ukraine managed to build an army because they were both motivated and had actual professionals helping them train, Russia doesn't really have that, as far as I know.

Now this isn't Apples-to-Apples, but remember how hilariously hard Russia got its shit pushed in by Germany (despite Germany's own fuck ups) for a couple of years until... well, they didn't? Once ... well, "competent" is a strong word to describe Soviet military leadership, but once the generals started to get replaced by guys who were dedicated to winning instead of just being in charge, things really started to reverse.

If we're going to laugh at the Vatniks for inhaling copium as Russian gains are reversing, it is a good idea to not fall into the same trap ourselves and assume that Russia will keep fucking up. Russia is one competent five-star away from turning the situation in Ukraine around. Of course this is like saying Ukraine is one magical unicorn away from being able to besiege Moscow - one might exist, but good luck finding it.

Again, if I'm at Vegas placing a $1000 bet on "Will Russia continue to fuck up the invasion in jaw-droppingly moronic ways?" I would put that $1000 on 'Yes' because that's the smart money. But that's not a for-sure result.

Militarily speaking, hitting a bunch of open fields doesn't help Russia at all. In fact, it only hurts them, as they waste ammunition and wear out their artillery guns faster for no gain.

They aren't hitting empty fields. Or I should say, the fields they are hitting aren't Meadow Wilderness, these are people's homes and farms.

If I'm a farmer, and my field is where Russia decided to keep wasting soviet-era ordinance in 2022, I'm probably going to be spending all of 2023 digging out shrapnel, calling the Ukraine EOD for unexploded shells, and and filling craters instead of growing crops.
If a Russian shell finds my house, my house still unlivable and in splinters.

Even when you factor in the cost of getting to the front, each Russian shell
Also, barrel wear only matters if you intend to have your artillery fire be accurate, which we have established Russia doesn't care about.

Those types of strikes won't accomplish much and aren't accomplishing much. Russia's inability to truly hit anything of consequence deep in the country and the constant attrition or irreplaceable aircraft have crippled their air response, and nothing recent indicates a change to the status quo.

Ukraine is doing a good job of keeping its equipment mobile. IF they get slack, there is a chance for some embarrassing explosions.

And in that you presume too much. Russia hasn't learned anything in the last 20 years of conflicts its fought, let alone the last five months. We've seen no real shift of change in Russian strategy since the war started. Even now, Russia mounts a pointless offensive on the Donbass front even as their northern and southern flank continue to collapse. I don't even think Russia's high command even knows what to do at this point.

Russia didn't learn from logistical failure in Belarus war games that were a dress rehersal for the invasion, so I'm not saying that Russia continuing to Russia isn't the most likely outcome. But a good chunk of Ukraine's success owes more to Russian incompetence than any brilliance by the Ukrainians. All Russia has to do is stop punching itself in dick, and Ukraine's mission of evicting them from Ukrainian soil gets exponentially harder.

It is never a good idea to count chickens before they hatch and we can look at our own copium-hazed Vatnik population as to why.

Actually, considering the sheer amount of land Ukraine has retaken recently, they will probably need to halt offensive operations soon anyway just to consolidate their gains. Momentum is on their side, but there is a hard limit to how much you can push that in modern warfare before you overextend yourself.

Agreed, but they may be forced to stop before they are able to take the positions they want. Anything they can't cut off rail access to in 2022 will be something they're going to have to take from dug-in Russian troops in 2023.
OTOH, if they can take out rail access to valuable positions, waiting for General Winter to make the Russians leave would be in their best interests.

Russia's industrial capacity is immaterial because it simply lacks the tools, know-how, and technology to produce what they need. This is the same country that has to import nails. Their advanced weapons are created using European tech they no longer have access to. We are already seen the Russians turning to the likes of North Korea and Iran to import equipment. Ukraine's economy is being propped up by the rest of the world, while Russia's economy is imploding because its basically been shut out of the world economy.

A Russian factory is shut down because of lack of materials; as soon as you find an alternative source you can get it back into operation.
A Ukrainian factory is shutdown because the heavy equipment is damaged. You have to get new equipment shipped in, and you can't really do that until the threat is over.

There is no indication whatsoever that U.S. or European populations are tired of support Ukraine. Just the opposite in fact; support for Ukraine is utterly enthusiastic, even in Germany, whose government is the most lukewarm to the idea. Everyone remains strong, and the more the Ukrainians actually win, the more enthusiastic the support gets. Ukraine's support in the west remains strong as ever. Meanwhile, Russia is a literal pariah state and will remain such even after the war ends.

Again, I'm not saying there is any indicators the situation will change, but that doesn't mean it won't. The wind blows until it doesn't.

6 or so months is a long time, and people in northern Europe will be getting their higher energy bills during that time. Its one thing to say "Fuck Putin, Slava Ukraine!" while the talking heads go on about gas supplies, and another thing entirely to see a 600 Euro faggotdollar gas bill and then you start to wonder if Kherson being Ukrainian or Russian really matters all that much.
Right now the messaging is good, they are getting out WWII rationing "You are suffering, but there is a purpose" communications. But the longer the conflict goes on, the more likely people will get tired of it. Time is not a Ukrainian ally.

 

[KiwiFuzz]

Time is not a Ukrainian ally?

Time is not a Russian ally. Russians are not good about using their time.

As I believe I have mentioned before in this thread, my reading right now is "Spain in Our Hearts," which is about the Spanish Civil War.

The Nazis and the Italian Fascists were arming Franco and proving crucial air support. Guernica was bombed by Junkers piloted by Krauts.

The USSR was arming the Republicans, but the guns they sent were laughably terrible. 36 different calibers, dates of manufacture in the 1860s, guns where the wooden stocks were rotten, guns where ammo hadn't been manufactured in decades, rifles with no bolts, literal Catherine the Great surplus arms.

There are two possible explanations for this:

1. Maybe Russia was intentionally trying to sell the Republicans a bunch of shit and they were indifferent as to whether the Republicans won or lost.
2. Maybe Russia thought that was a pretty good haul.

Either explanation says something about the Russian character circa 1936, and based on what we've seen here, their national character has not changed in 86 years.

Like I know the US is offloading our used shit on the Ukrainians, but American used shit is like... stuff made 20 years ago that has been cared for and still works, not stuff made for the Korean War that's been sitting in a leaky shed for 70 years.