War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

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President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

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That's a stretch, the article is clearly talking about "launch sites" and "firing positions" in territory that could be reclaimed on the mainland and the ability of HIMARS and cruise missiles to defeat AA, not the prospect of bypassing it completely.

It has no relevance to this. The topic was using advanced weapons to hit the bridge, this might not have even been sanctioned by the military/goverment.
I'm just speculating that there might be a link of them researching feasibility of conventional missile/drone/airstrike taking out the bridge and going for more unconventional option instead.

I'm definitely going to keep tabs on how and by whom this operation was conducted.
 
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Truck full of explosives could maybe do enough damage, while bypassing Russian air defenses.
It doesn't really take a whole lot of explosives, either. The Iowa's 16" HE shells that could create 200 yards in diameter of safe landing zone for helicopters in Vietnam only had 150 pounds of actual explosive in them... and that explosive is much less powerful than modern ones. 92 pounds (41~kg) of C-4 would get you as much pure explosive power but (but obviously less fragmentation) than one of those giant-ass shells.

Of course, what are the chances of anyone in Ukraine getting their hands on 92 pounds of C-4 or the Russian equivalent?
 
He sent the young, healthy men there, too.
I'll give you an insider scoop, so to speak. They basically have a list of reservists in voenkomats, they pester everyone on said list that they can reach. Anyone stupid enough to actually visit voenkomat following notification or on their own becomes officially mobilized, and at that point can face criminal charges for not complying with it, they're then pressured into essentially signing a contract, which is illegal according to Russian criminal code article 179 "Compulsion to Complete a Deal or to Refuse to Complete It".

For perspective, in war time during mobilization practically anyone can be called up, and that's the standard they use right now, despite there not being any war officially, or martial law being enacted. That's how people with cerebral palsy and cancer end up with povestkas (the much feared summon to voenkomat). Local authorities in the regions jumped on the opportunity to suck Putin's dick and went ham, ignoring any decency and common sense, just so they could be first to complete the task. And why wouldn't they, when Putin's "partial mobilization" decree doesn't officially set any limitations?
Quite a few people as a result were sent back home later, and some died due to their illness in the process.
Most Russians don't know their rights and that's why they don't have them. Ignoring summons as a reservist under current circumstances is at most an administrative fine, literal pennies:
Administrative code article 21.5 "Failure of Citizens to Discharge Their Duties, as Regards Military Registration". But people fear authorities so they often comply with unlawful demands instead. I familiarized myself with the relevant law and feel fairly secure as a result.

Just the other day they tried to prosecute someone under criminal law for this very violation after one man was arrested (unlawfully), police got chastised by the overseeing authorities and case was dropped, which sets a precedent. They tried to apply article written specifically for people dodging mandatory service, which doesn't apply here. It's what got changed to include more severe punishment prior to "partial" mobilization and what they're scaring men with to make them comply. "Mobilization" ends up being essentially a campaign to scare ignorant citizens into signing contracts for military service, which is by definition voluntary.

Yeah, they could rewrite laws to close this loophole, but they're already walking on eggshells with this mobilization business, people are growing increasingly discontent and even starting to discover their rights.
All that said, Putin's decree on mobilization is a sham to begin with. It's at most a document for use within his administration, not an actual decree. There's no original with a proper seal and his signature in existence, no one has seen it. And even then it clearly says that mobilized are considered contract soldiers, while contract is voluntary by definition.
Motherfucker didn't sign shit, so he doesn't take responsibility for anything. Well, I'm not signing shit either.
Stalin was also leaving people in command based on how much he liked them. Go look into Grigory Kulik if you want to know how bad things really were. He managed to stay a field marshal until 1946 despite sabotaging the entire Red Army from sheer incompetence just because he was personal friends with Stalin.
Adding to that, Russia's current minister of defense is Putin's close friend from way back, who didn't serve in the military nor has military education of any sort.
Why is anyone surprised by how things are going?
Yeah. Stories. Stories most people would have found hard to believe, even us, never mind a DIA analyst who is operating from a starting position of "Russia has a half-competent military" because to do so otherwise is inconceivable given their international status. The idea that things are 1990's bad in terms of corruption is patently ridiculous on its face given Putin's saber-rattling in Ukraine, since you'd have to be a fucking monkey to try shit with a military that bad. But lo and behold, Putin is a fucking monkey, and things really are that bad. Obviously all parties were wrong, but things are so bad on the ground anyone saying this before the invasion would have been laughed at and mocked, even by us Kiwis.
Anyone with a brain would be preparing for the worst case scenario, meaning Russia at its hypothetical best in this case. Better be overprepared than the contrary.
Then again, this all means that all the more you guys shouldnt get your hopes up about the Russians staying dumb, even if nobody technically gets sacked, Unity of Command issues aside.
Question is, where would paranoid Putin get people both loyal and competent enough, as well as willing to continue this clearly retarded war of his?
I'm afraid it's just more retards from there on. Because no reasonable person would want this to go on.

It doesn't really take a whole lot of explosives, either. The Iowa's 16" HE shells that could create 200 yards in diameter of safe landing zone for helicopters in Vietnam only had 150 pounds of actual explosive in them... and that explosive is much less powerful than modern ones. 92 pounds (41~kg) of C-4 would get you as much pure explosive power but (but obviously less fragmentation) than one of those giant-ass shells.

Of course, what are the chances of anyone in Ukraine getting their hands on 92 pounds of C-4 or the Russian equivalent?
Why is no one talking about the driver? lol
It would either have to be someone ignorant of the truck's content (if Ukrainians did it, then someone expendable/Russian), or essentially a suicide bomber. Or did they just plant it somewhere on the truck without the driver knowing?

Elon Musk could test his new Tesla Semi with autopilot for military purposes here...
 
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Why is no one talking about the driver? lol
It would either have to be someone ignorant of the truck's content (if Ukrainians did it, then someone expendable/Russian), or essentially a suicide bomber. Or did they just plant it somewhere on the truck without the driver knowing?

Elon Musk could test his new Tesla Semi with autopilot for military purposes here...
Well, was the truck driving or just sitting there waiting for the opportunity? Was someone photographed inside of it at the time it went up? No reason a madlad in a Russian uniform couldn't have driven it, set a timer, and then jumped into the river.
 
Well, was the truck driving or just sitting there waiting for the opportunity? Was someone photographed inside of it at the time it went up? No reason a madlad in a Russian uniform couldn't have driven it, set a timer, and then jumped into the river.
They have identified the perpetrator:
FehSsKuUoAA2c_3.jpg
Jokes aside, in one of the clips you can see it driving when explosion happens, if that's the truck: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1578650571526926336
 
They have identified the perpetrator:
View attachment 3723640
Jokes aside, in one of the clips you can see it driving when explosion happens, if that's the truck: https://twitter.com/bayraktar_1love/status/1578650571526926336
Yeah and the explosion looks like it came from just off the side of the bridge and not the actual truck. In the second clip there's significant water splash towards the camera yet no matching shockwave under the bridge where the truck supposedly blew up, and in fact later on in that clip you can see water move from under the other side of the bridge towards the camera. The bridge is also intact aside from the furthest right side, so the explosion cannot have been centered upon the bridge otherwise it would have immediately collapsed, but is instead merely scorched. My best guess is some fast-moving airburst projectile, since an underwater explosion would have had far more water vapor.
 
Yeah and the explosion looks like it came from just off the side of the bridge and not the actual truck. In the second clip there's significant water splash towards the camera yet no matching shockwave under the bridge where the truck supposedly blew up, and in fact later on in that clip you can see water move from under the other side of the bridge towards the camera. The bridge is also intact aside from the furthest right side, so the explosion cannot have been centered upon the bridge otherwise it would have immediately collapsed, but is instead merely scorched. My best guess is some fast-moving airburst projectile, since an underwater explosion would have had far more water vapor.
What if it's just that fuel train? Might be a smoking accident after all.
You can bet there's a lot of safety violations with how much of a mess Russian logistics are, it might be an accident, or it could be sabotage. It would require thorough investigation to establish that.
I'm not sure if train was at that same place at the time of explosion, gonna need more footage.
 
What if it's just that fuel train? Might be a smoking accident after all.
You can bet there's a lot of safety violations with how much of a mess Russian logistics are, it might be an accident, or it could be sabotage. It would require thorough investigation to establish that.
I'm not sure if train was at that same place at the time of explosion, gonna need more footage.
Na, fuel train is on the opposite side of the explosion and catches fire later as a secondary. Probably some sort of leak and then a cookoff.
 
The video with the road view of the explosion is seemed to be deemed fake, the actual explosion happened during dawn, while the video has a clear daylight
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Scratch that, I've seen the actual version of the video, it happened when there's barely light, so it appeared to be genuine
 
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Because Europeans are shit at long term planning and in their uniquely European smugness fail to realize that actions have consequences until its too late. Trump warned them in 2018. They had four years to get their shit together, and they didn't. Now, with reality about to smack them in their face, we'll see if their eight months of planning and preparation were enough. Shit's going to suck, and the only question is how hard its going to suck. Personally I think they'll squeak through without too much trouble and only become more arrogant and dismissive of the USA's warnings in the future as a result. "Ha, take that, America! We didn't need Trump's advice anyways!"

I swear, they're the goddamn DSP of continents...
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Rent free
 
It would be very funny if the recent attacks in Kherson were once again meant to distract the Russians, but this time from an attack in the south towards Melitopol. With the Kerch bridge severely damaged, Russian forces in the west could be cut off and would have to be supplied by ship. However, Russian ships and ports are notoriously vulnerable to smookers. Russia likely also doesn't have enough suitable transport ships in the Black Sea, and Turkey would not allow other Russian ships to pass through the Bosphorus.

I'm 99.9% sure this won't happen, but still.

The vatnigger sphere is already talking about the gloves coming off this time. For real. Again.

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It would be very funny if the recent attacks in Kherson were once again meant to distract the Russians, but this time from an attack in the south towards Melitopol. With the Kerch bridge severely damaged, Russian forces in the west could be cut off and would have to be supplied by ship. However, Russian ships and ports are notoriously vulnerable to smookers. Russia likely also doesn't have enough suitable transport ships in the Black Sea, and Turkey would not allow other Russian ships to pass through the Bosphorus.

I'm 99.9% sure this won't happen, but still.

The vatnigger sphere is already talking about the gloves coming off this time. For real. Again.

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For a Russian "with attitude" he sure acts like a whiney bitch rather than someone with attitude.
 
When this farce of a mobilization started, propaganda talk shows spent a lot of time discussing how conscripts should be supplied, like all the basic shit from uniforms and helmets to first aid kits, problems that still persist. Not geopolitical and strategical issues like usual.
And it looks like they were talking about that for a reason; some of them knew at the back of their heads that merely supplying these yahoos is going to be a hurdle for them. A hurdle they chose not to tackle.

This is the world superpower, apparently. It's downright embarrassing. If this happened in US, secretary of defense would've been fucking hanged.
The man would get hung, drawn, and quartered if that kind of fuck-up happened in America.
 
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