War Invasion of Ukraine News Megathread - Thread is only for articles and discussion of articles, general discussion thread is still in Happenings.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday said that the United States will impose sanctions “far beyond” the ones that the United States imposed in 2014 following the annexation of the Crimean peninsula.

“This is the beginning of a Russian invasion of Ukraine,” Biden said in a White House speech, signaling a shift in his administration’s position. “We will continue to escalate sanctions if Russia escalates,” he added.

Russian elites and their family members will also soon face sanctions, Biden said, adding that “Russia will pay an even steeper price” if Moscow decides to push forward into Ukraine. Two Russian banks and Russian sovereign debt will also be sanctioned, he said.

Also in his speech, Biden said he would send more U.S. troops to the Baltic states as a defensive measure to strengthen NATO’s position in the area.

Russia shares a border with Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania.

A day earlier, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered troops to go into the separatist Donetsk and Lugansk regions in eastern Ukraine after a lengthy speech in which he recognized the two regions’ independence.

Western powers decried the move and began to slap sanctions on certain Russian individuals, while Germany announced it would halt plans to go ahead with the Russia-to-Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline.

At home, Biden is facing bipartisan pressure to take more extensive actions against Russia following Putin’s decision. However, a recent poll showed that a majority of Americans believe that sending troops to Ukraine is a “bad idea,” and a slim minority believes it’s a good one.

All 27 European Union countries unanimously agreed on an initial list of sanctions targeting Russian authorities, said French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian, and EU foreign affairs head Josep Borell claimed the package “will hurt Russia … a lot.”

Earlier Tuesday, Borell asserted that Russian troops have already entered the Donbas region, which comprises Donetsk and Lugansk, which are under the control of pro-Russia groups since 2014.

And on Tuesday, the Russian Parliament approved a Putin-back plan to use military force outside of Russia’s borders as Putin further said that Russia confirmed it would recognize the expanded borders of Lugansk and Donetsk.

“We recognized the states,” the Russian president said. “That means we recognized all of their fundamental documents, including the constitution, where it is written that their [borders] are the territories at the time the two regions were part of Ukraine.”

Speaking to reporters on Tuesday, Putin said that Ukraine is “not interested in peaceful solutions” and that “every day, they are amassing troops in the Donbas.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky on Tuesday morning again downplayed the prospect of a Russian invasion and proclaimed: “There will be no war.”

“There will not be an all-out war against Ukraine, and there will not be a broad escalation from Russia. If there is, then we will put Ukraine on a war footing,” he said in a televised address.

The White House began to signal that they would shift their own position on whether it’s the start of an invasion.

“We think this is, yes, the beginning of an invasion, Russia’s latest invasion into Ukraine,” said Jon Finer, the White House deputy national security adviser in public remarks. “An invasion is an invasion and that is what is underway.”

For weeks, Western governments have been claiming Moscow would invade its neighbor after Russia gathered some 150,000 troops along the countries’ borders. They alleged that the Kremlin would attempt to come up with a pretext to attack, while some officials on Monday said Putin’s speech recognizing the two regions was just that.

But Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin told reporters Tuesday that Russia’s “latest invasion” of Ukraine is threatening stability in the region, but he asserted that Putin can “still avoid a full blown, tragic war of choice.”

Article

 

[Ghostse]

Article Archive

Ukraine war: Captured Russian documents reveal Moscow's 10-day plan to take over the country and kill its leaders​

Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI says, with a list also showing who should be killed, who would be intimidated and who would be targeted as a collaborator.

A British defence and security think tank has revealed details of Moscow's pre-invasion plan for Ukraine, based on captured Russian documents apparently signed off by Vladimir Putin.

Russia had planned to take over Ukraine over 10 days and annex it by August this year, the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies (RUSI) said.


According to the British Army-linked think tank, only a small group of Russian officials were aware of the full scale of the plans.

It said even deputy heads of branches within the Russian military were unaware of the plan to invade and occupy Ukraine until days before the invasion began, and tactical military units didn't receive orders until hours before.

Ukraine war latest - UK is in some form of 'war', says ex-military chief



The documents also revealed that Russia planned to capture Ukraine's power stations, airfields, water supplies, central bank and parliament - and that Russian special services were tasked with killing the Ukrainian leadership.

They appeared to assume Ukrainian government officials would "either flee or be captured as a result of the speed of the invasion", RUSI said.



Ukraine's intelligence community also believes Russia planned to use Belarusian airborne units to capture the Rivne and Khmelnytsky nuclear power plants.

The invasion plan reportedly detailed plots to capture Ukraine's nuclear power plants in order to shelter Russian troops, gain control over the country's energy system, and potentially blackmail European countries with the risk of radiation pollution.

Russia planned to start the invasion with a "massive missile and airstrike campaign" against Ukrainian military targets, RUSI said.

It added that Moscow would not target critical infrastructure such as power stations and railways because these were key to its plans to occupy the country.

Russia's 'kill list'

The Russian counterintelligence regime had compiled lists of some Ukrainians, RUSI said.

They were divided into four categories:

• Those who should be killed
• Those in need of suppression and intimidation
• Those considered neutral who should be encouraged to collaborate
• Those prepared to collaborate.

Officials planned to register the population through door-to-door sweeps and filtration camps, the think tank said.

Russia also reportedly planned the coerced cooperation of regional governors and local authorities, and the FSB had been tasked with capturing local officials.


Over time, it planned to bring teachers and other officials from Russia to start the "re-education of Ukrainians".


I think the person who sent the letters is likely skitzo. It also wouldn’t surprise me if it was someone from the basque region who not only hates Spain but anyone with positive relations to Spain, ie the west.

I believe the war planning & nuke plant occupation 100%, even if I'm 99.6% sure they are sensationalizing things.

I'm pretty sure the "blackmail europe and threaten them with nuclear fallout" is more on the lines of 'We will base troops in these power plants where they will be safe from NATO airstrikes because the euroniks will fear fallout and blackouts". I have a feeling the "tasking special forces to kill" is probably someone drumming up russian orders to neutralize ukrainian politicians not assassinate them (though I'm sure if there is a shoot out with the security detail, I mean things happen).

I also have a feeling the "brining in teachers to Russify Ukraine" is probaby more of a "take these actions/secure these areas so we can begin actions to bring Ukraine in line with russian standards" etc. They might have even only referenced the Donbros.

IIRC there has been confusion about Russia referring to "Ukraine" but it having a generally understood meaning of "Donbas"

Kinda buffs me up how Poodin and his goons thought this is a good plan. I mean the US called out their troop gathering over months since late 2021 and released pics of every single army depot along the border AND STILL they thought this "suprise attack" would somehow be hot news. The only advantage they had was weaponized retardation since nobody thought, that he would be retarded enough to pull it through. These first ten days of the war honestly need to be turned into a movie or even better a 180min documentary with uncensored footage.

I think what people need to keep themselves from forgetting is just how lopsided the occupation of Crimea was. Russia was able to get troops infiltrated and take over everywhere but the naval base. Ukraine was screaming about Russian forces and while there were pictures of little green men running about, Putin was saying "there are no Russian forces in Crimea". Europe and Cuckbama let him get away with it.

So based on how Crimea went down, a 10-day take over of Ukraine is probably just about right. Even NATO was giving Ukraine two weeks. I mean, I was expecting a repeat for 2014, I had no idea the madlads had actually gotten their military to actually listen when the green berets were talking.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I also have a feeling the "brining in teachers to Russify Ukraine" is probaby more of a "take these actions/secure these areas so we can begin actions to bring Ukraine in line with russian standards" etc. They might have even only referenced the Donbros.

I'm sure it means exactly what it says. Wouldn't be the first time (historically speaking), and it's what they're already doing in places like Mariupol.
Needless to say, Ukrainian children who was forced to flee to Russia because it was either that or dying under their shelling are being russified as we speak as well.
It's integral to the whole "Russian World" idea. They can't stand Ukrainians being somehow different and defying their hegemony, in the eyes of Russian chauvinists pushing this whole thing, they're "siblings who lost their way" and have to be reigned in, turned into "proper Russians" or erased.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

New Russian fortifications being built spotted by satellite.

Archive

Grace Mappes and Frederick W. Kagan

November 27, 5:30 pm ET​

Click here to see ISW’s interactive map of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. This map is updated daily alongside the static maps present in this report.

ISW is publishing an abbreviated campaign update today, November 27. This report evaluates the defensive positions Russian forces are establishing in eastern Kherson Oblast and what those positions suggest about Russian expectations for future operations in this area.

The Russian military clearly assesses that Ukrainian forces could cross the Dnipro River and conduct counter-offensive operations in eastern Kherson Oblast, possibly threatening all of the critical ground lines of communications (GLOCs) from Crimea to the mainland. Russian forces have been digging trench lines and concentration areas in eastern Kherson since early October 2022 in obvious preparation for the withdrawal from the west bank of the Dnipro River and Kherson City.[1] Russian troops are preparing either to defend in depth or to conduct operational or strategic delay operations. Russian forces clearly do not expect to be able to prevent Ukrainian forces from getting across the river, nor are the Russians prioritizing defensive positions to stop such a crossing. The Russian military is setting conditions for a protracted defense in eastern Kherson Oblast that could allow the establishment of a solid Ukrainian lodgment on the eastern bank of the Dnipro River. The assessment that follows examines the Russian defensive laydown and evaluates the expectations for the flow of operations likely guiding that laydown exclusively. This assessment makes no effort to determine whether Ukrainian forces intend to cross or are capable of crossing the Dnipro River in this region and offers no forecast about whether or not they will make any such attempt.

---

Russian forces are fortifying their positions along critical GLOCs in eastern Kherson Oblast against a possible future Ukrainian counteroffensive. Satellite imagery shows that Russian forces have prioritized digging trenches and erecting dragon’s teeth anti-tank defenses along GLOCs that connect Russian forces on the eastern (left) bank of the Dnipro River with southeastern rear areas in Kherson Oblast and Crimea as well as with eastern rear areas around Melitopol, Zaporizhia Oblast.

Edit: an Excalibur pitch reel.

 

[1Tonka_Truck]

New Russian fortifications being built spotted by satellite.

Archive

I read somewhere left bank is mostly sand and has a high water table. If that's correct, it makes sense the Russians are building fortifications back from the river.

 

[JosephStalin]

Kinda buffs me up how Poodin and his goons thought this is a good plan. I mean the US called out their troop gathering over months since late 2021 and released pics of every single army depot along the border AND STILL they thought this "suprise attack" would somehow be hot news. The only advantage they had was weaponized retardation since nobody thought, that he would be retarded enough to pull it through. These first ten days of the war honestly need to be turned into a movie or even better a 180min documentary with uncensored footage. Has someone any footage/videos from the fight near Kiev and against the GRU saboteurs? I only started to follow the war after the Hostomel disaster. So my knowledge about the first few days is kinda limited.

Probably the first video I saw was from a bumbfuck nowhere town north of Kiev were a Ukie gypsy pulled a conscriptovich from a lonely BMP and beat him to death with a glass bottle. Almost on tier with the Ghost of Kyiv memes.

Am surprised at least one book about the invasion hasn't come out yet. Least I haven't seen one. Anyone else seen any books about this war so far?

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I read somewhere left bank is mostly sand and has a high water table. If that's correct, it makes sense the Russians are building fortifications back from the river.

What interests me is not so much their abandoning the riverbanks & moving their lines back; but where they might be trying to funnel Ukrainians into attacking, along with trying to hold the MSRs & rail-junctions, given that those defensive positions are well within MLRS, HIMARS & drone range.

Whoever they park at those FOBs are going to have a rough time, even if they're never directly assaulted by the Ukrainians.

Am surprised at least one book about the invasion hasn't come out yet. Least I haven't seen one. Anyone else seen any books about this war so far?

Not in English, and I have seen some Ukrainian titles written about the conflict since 2016, but I haven't come across anything new since the invasion started.

I have a few people I can ask, though. One of them is a school administrator who works in Kharkiv, mainly distributing relief supplies to civilians; but they also take books to villages still under fire from the Russians in their bookmobile.

 

[LORD IMPERATOR]

Looks like Europe won't have to freeze alone. Russia is also at the verge of a frozen death:

Russians are angry Putin is spending billions on an unpopular war as they freeze back home, report says

Russians are angry President Vladimir Putin is spending billions on an increasingly unpopular war in Ukraine as they freeze back home, The Daily Beast reported on Thursday.

As Russian troops continue to strike Ukraine's vital power in fractures — plunging millions into darkness — Russians at home are also struggling to keep afloat amid crippling Western sanctions.

People living in many of the remote regions of the country, where conditions are at their worst, have been complaining about a lack of heating in their homes and burst water pipes, The Beast reported, citing social media posts.

Remote regions including Tyumen and Yakutia are among the worst affected, reporting many victims of frost in the past week, the outlet reported.

"They take young men—the only breadwinners—away and send them back in coffins. The guys freeze on the front, get sick, die while their families live in poverty," Valentina Melnikova, an activist with the Soldiers' Mothers Committee, told The Beast.

"It seems authorities have no interest left in human lives at this point," she added.

Nikolay Zolotov, a Russian blogger who lives in a republic in Siberia, told the Beast: "Dark times. Ukraine is surviving without heating and light and here in Khakasia our life is awfully hard."

"Bursting pipes is not the worst problem: people live on tiny salaries in a poorly maintained city, without cash to buy food, while our government spends billions on the special operation in Ukraine," he added.

It is unclear how much exactly Putin is spending on the war in Ukraine, which continues nine months after the Russian leader launched his large-scale invasion.

Forbes Ukraine estimated last week that Russia has spent around $82 billion — a quarter of its annual budget.

Among other costs, this estimate includes nearly $29 billion that Moscow has allocated to support its army with weapons and equipment, $16 billion for soldiers' salaries, and more than $9 billion to pay off the families of servicemen killed in combat.

The war will not get any cheaper for Putin, Forbes Ukraine said, estimating that it will cost at least $10 billion a month going forward.

The reports come amid numerous battlefield setbacks in recent weeks for Russia, which has started looking to countries like Iran, North Korea, and Syria for assistance.

Other reports of mobilized Russian soldiers being deployed with little training and poor equipment have prompted more Russians to publicly voice their criticisms.

Before the war, which started on February 24, Putin admitted that poverty was Russia's biggest challenge, calling it the country's "main enemy" in 2019, The Beast reported.

"Our main goal is to improve the quality of life for our citizens," he said.

Meanwhile, Russian attacks have crippled half of Ukraine's energy infrastructure, a top World Health Organization official said last month, leaving millions of people across the country without power and water.

The upcoming winter "will be about survival" for Ukrainians, the official warned.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

So something came to me earlier:

Basically, in order to believe Russia is winning then you have to believe most of Russian propaganda about the war (Particularly about Kiev being a feint, and obnoxiously low Russian casualty counts); whereas to believe that either Ukraine is winning or that both sides are slogged in a victor-less stalemate then you don't necessarily have to believe Ukrainian/Western propaganda (especially fluff about how Putler is Finished! or literally anything the Russians do somehow being a warcrime).

This is, of course, taking into the fact that Russian propaganda angles change almost monthly...

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Interesting breakdown of Russian PMCs active in Ukraine, their training, and tactics on both sides.

Home — Society — War — December 2, 2022, 09:00
Cockroaches Private military companies
They operate in more than 50 countries on every continent except Antarctica. P.V. Singer, author of the book Corporate Warriors: The Rise of the Privatized Military Industry, says that in combat zones there is now one PMC contractor for every 10 military personnel (in the early 1990s the ratio was 50:1). That is, nothing strange or unusual is happening in Ukraine. In 2003, on a global scale, this industry turned over approximately 100 billion dollars annually. Private military companies make up 29% of the workforce in the United States intelligence community and absorb 49% of the personnel budget.

Today's PMCs have their origins in a group of former SAS veterans who were brought together in 1965 by SAS founder Sir David Stirling and his colleague John Woodhouse to found WatchGuard International, the first private military company that provided security services and solutions to military tasks on a contract basis. The first places of work are Yemen, Zambia, Sierra Leone.

In Ukraine, they are looking for adventures/profits/deaths of the "Redut-Antiterror" PMC (to Ukraine - the protection of the assets of the Russian businessman Gennady Timchenko, several of their units are visiting us without invitation: "Ilymovtsy", "Hooligans", "Wolves", "Marines" and "Taxes". They entered from Belarus, were near Kyiv, from there to Donbas), PEC "Patriot" (operates under the patronage of Sergei Shoigu, in the PEC there are active specialists of the GUR GSH of the Russian Federation, military lawyers, soldiers of the SSO, and mostly without separation from the military services, which is surprising). The most famous is PVK "Wagner" (owner - Yevgeny Prigozhin). In April, there were mentions of the "League" PMC. Now it can be argued that these are the most professionally trained veterans of "Wagner", who are fighting against us for ideological reasons. But this is the same "Wagner", side view.

The Allies believe that as of October, the total number of mercenaries of the "Wagner" PMC is more than 26,500 people, of which about 10,500 are in Ukraine, in particular, about 2,000 people are fighting near Bakhmut as part of six detachments and one near Kupyansk, another 8,500 people are in base camps.

Recruiting: there are three categories of candidates - former military personnel, including foreigners, with a high level of professional training and combat experience, ordinary conscripts and a special contingent from prisons.

The armies of Prigozhin and Kadyrov were created to suppress potential uprisings in Russia, - GUR

Preparation: different categories of mercenaries are prepared differently for participation in hostilities.

The first category undergoes in-depth military and special training, where exactly they study - it is not known for sure, probably - at the training grounds of the SSO of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation.

The second category is trained in qualified specialties - attack aircraft, sniper, machine gunner, grenade launcher, mortar, sapper. The training and material base of 10 OBrSpP (Molkino of the Krasnodar Territory) and the training ground in the Rostov-on-Don region are used. Currently, approximately 1,200 fighters are being trained, but the capacity of the training base is up to 300 people, the rest are idle.
The third category , the same yesterday's special contingent of VTU , studies at training grounds at TOT, which, according to various estimates, number up to 25. They are trained in groups of 15 people. Areas of training – assault group, infantry group, reconnaissance group. The least trained fighters are kept as a reserve. The main training efforts are fire training and tactics of fighting twos/threes. The duration of the training course for the second and third categories is two weeks, the result is close to none.
An interesting fact: among mercenaries there is a separate category - "security service". Fighters from this category perform the role of supervisors during hostilities and have the authority to execute other mercenaries (reasons - cowardice, disobeying orders, actions contrary to the terms of the contract).
In the districts of Ozeryanivka, Kurdyumivka, and Kleschiivka, our officers have recently noticed changes in the tactics of mercenaries from the PKV.

During operations in forest belts, the assault squads act as follows: the assault group advances in threes/fours at a distance of up to 10-15 m. The starting order is a sapper, a pair of riflemen covering him, a machine gunner covering the group. As soon as the first group reaches the control point, the next group begins to move. Yes, squads of 15-25 people move in three waves. The goal is to approach our positions at the minimum possible distance and establish fire contact, while the first four fight with small arms, the second and third - with RPG, RPO, AGS. If ours gave way, the third four retreats to a favorable position, where it begins to dig in, and the first two retreat there with a fight. They dig on the conscience, the positions for shooting from the prone position are equipped in 30 minutes. The next attack takes place already from a prepared position.

During operations in populated areas, mercenaries act in assault groups of 15-25 fighters, which are divided into two subgroups - light (two trios of shooters and a machine gunner who moves behind the first trio in the center of the pre-combat order) and heavy (shooters with disposable grenade launchers and double- triple supply of hand grenades). The group commander moves behind the first subgroup or among the second. When the assault group approaches the intersection, it does not occupy it, but goes around from the flank through courtyards, thus entering the rear of the troops controlling the intersection.
In both scenarios, snipers armed with "Vykhlop" or "Vyntorez" rifles operate separately from assault groups at distances of 400-600 m. Snipers are known to have more than 100 confirmed hits.

From the words of our guys who captured and interrogated mercenaries from "Wagner":

trophies highly valued by the enemy: dry food, first-aid kits provided to the Armed Forces of the Allies, weapons, warm clothing other than outerwear (jackets, peacoats), backpacks, portable gas cylinders, sweets, telephones, ballistic protection items, warm sleeping bags, waterproof berets, rubber boots (our sappers know where to set traps, if anything);

Russia is rapidly losing its defense capabilities
weak points of mercenaries:

- they fear the use of physical punishments for running away from the field or refusing to participate in assault actions (beating, detention in isolation cells);

- are in an information vacuum regarding the situation at the front
- information about Russian failures, in particular the defeat near Kherson, is a powerful demotivating factor;

- they are afraid of our armored vehicles;

– are constantly hungry (they are given one sukhpai per 2 people per day to encourage them to look for food in our positions after their capture);

- fear of mines (mercenaries do not go down into captured trenches, which are covered with leaves, until they are checked by a sapper).

It is also worth paying attention to our mistakes in defense:

- neglecting the quality of fortification equipment of positions and defensive structures;

- neglecting the use of natural obstacles;

- absence of minefields;

– poor masking;

– when choosing a position, the angle of the sun is not taken into account (sights, glasses, binoculars, etc. blink);

- neglecting the equipment of pretended positions, their mining, other methods of military cunning;

- when leaving, the positions left behind are not mined, destroyed, or destroyed with ammunition and MTZ items that cannot be evacuated;

- artillery firing without adjustment of fire by an observer or a technical means of reconnaissance.

But we have productive and effective countermeasures.

The other day, Yuriy Butusov made public an episode where two fighters of the Armed Forces of Ukraine brigade near Bakhmut successfully and without casualties repelled a five-times larger group of mercenaries.

 

[Snekposter]

I read somewhere left bank is mostly sand and has a high water table. If that's correct, it makes sense the Russians are building fortifications back from the river.

Honestly, I don't think Ukraine should even try to force a crossing. Let the Russians spend time and money fortifying that place, and instead Ukraine can devote forces to pushing back up north in Donbass. Its going to be way too costly given the defensive measures that were started even before the Kherson pullback and the river crossing. No reason they shouldn't chuck some HIMARS at anything that looks juicy though, just to keep the Russians on their toes and make sure they can't just abandon the place. Turning that place into a supply and manpower sink is IMO the best use of it. I may be wrong and they could pull it off without taking a bunch of casualties, but I doubt it. Besides, with winter coming and HIMARS interrupting supply lines, how long will even Russians last? A quick check on the weather in Kherson tells me its 34 degrees Fahrenheit right now. Not exactly pleasant unless you've got a lot of really warm clothes... and I'm pressing X to Doubt on that for the Russians.

 

[Ghostse]

I read somewhere left bank is mostly sand and has a high water table. If that's correct, it makes sense the Russians are building fortifications back from the river.

Yes. The left bank is pretty much unfortifiable, one of the huge coups of the Russian advance was taking Khreson before they had to slog across it.

Russian command not trying to hold it is another worrying sign of competence.
If so, Russian forces may be trying to trying to make lemonade; if Ukraine tries a river crossing in force, they will be dealing with artillery and probably air support.

All he wonks have agreed a center push is the smart play, but there is another option as (or at least something else could do in tandem).

In the Fall counter offensive, Ukraine made great use of "thunder run" tactics. That is, equipping a highly mobile force with heavy weapons and having them tear ass through enemy territory to cause as much chaos and disruption as they can before getting out. They stop for nothing - disabled vehicles are abandoned, crews and dismounts picked up by other vehicles, vehicles have only have as many dismounts as can shoot while the vehicle is moving.

The Ukrainian forces used a lot of technicals in their offensive and by attacking from the rear they got Russian units to abandon front line positions assuming there had been a breakthrough and they fell fearing getting cut off. As the rest of their line melted, it meant anyone who didn't fall back did end up getting cut off and surrounded.

The Ukrainians could land 'thunder run' forces on the peninsula or over the river. If they aren't digging in, the high water table doesn't matter too much. The tricky part is recovery after the run is complete - any evacuation by ship would be easy to spot and zero on with artillery.

Imagine though if they pushed down to Mariupol. whew lads.

 

[teriyakiburns]

Imagine though if they pushed down to Mariupol. whew lads.

They could also push down through melitopol and cut the east/west rail lines there. The river would give them some defensive positions.

 

[Super Saiyan Hitler]

Okay, I think that we have had enough factual discussions for a while, so let's get WOKE.

I had heard a lot about Douglas MacGregor, but I never really looked into him before now. He is usually the 'serious' and 'professional' pro-Russia commentator that vatniggers cite when they are aware of the bad optics of using openly anti-American commentators or lolcows like Scott Ritter and Armchair Copelord. MacGregor's main qualification is that he's a retired colonel and was a defense advisor during the Trump presidency.

MacGregor's lunacy started before the invasion even began. After Russia recognized the two Donbas breakaway states, he wrote an article that essentially suggested that the West should capitulate immediately. In exchange for Russia not conquering all of Ukraine, the Biden administration should offer Russia all Ukrainian lands east of the Dnieper and withdraw US forces from Eastern Europe.

The president should instead summon the Russian ambassador and propose the following three terms:

First, the United States and its allies will not tolerate the movement of Russian ground forces westward beyond the Dnieper. The deliberate crossing of the Dnieper by Russian ground forces with the goal of reaching NATO’s eastern border will be treated as a hostile act against NATO. The United States and its allies will respond to such action with the military means to stop it.

Second, the United States and its allies will agree to conditions of neutrality for Ukraine as currently configured. Washington accepts that the Ukrainian nation-state construct, as currently configured, is ahistorical and problematic. Eastern Ukraine was Russified long ago, and its population is Russian in language, culture, and identity. The Ukrainian heartland lies West of the Dnieper River.

Third, if Moscow accepts these points as the basis for an agreement, the United States and its allies will also work with Moscow to establish a new agreement restricting the numbers of U.S. ground, air, and naval forces permitted to operate in Eastern Europe. In addition, the United States is prepared to restore the Intermediate Nuclear Force Treaty. (The INF Treaty eliminated a particularly destabilizing class of missiles—those with ranges between 300 to 3,400 miles.)

A Mexican Standoff in Eastern Ukraine - The American Conservative

The stakes are the future of Moscow’s relationship with the West.

www.theamericanconservative.com

Unfortunately, most articles written since the invasion have become boring and essentially boil down to "Ukraine and the West are losing" and/or "Russia is going to launch the final offensive soon."

Russia already controls the territory that produces 95 percent of Ukrainian GDP. It has no need to press further west. At this writing, it seems certain that Moscow will finish its work in Donbas, then, turn its attention to the capture of Odessa, a Russian city that saw terrible atrocities committed by Ukrainian forces against Russian citizens in 2014.

Moscow is in no hurry. The Russians are nothing if not methodical and deliberate. Ukrainian forces are bleeding to death in counterattack after counterattack. Why rush? Moscow can be patient. China, Saudi Arabia, and India are buying Russian oil in rubles. Sanctions are hurting America’s European allies, not Russia. The coming winter will likely do more to alter Europe’s political landscape than any action Moscow might undertake.

Holding Ground, Losing War - The American Conservative

Zelensky's strategy of defending territory at all costs has been disastrous for Ukraine.

www.theamericanconservative.com

He actually links to a source for the "95 percent of Ukrainian GDP" claim, but nowhere does it say anything like that. It's a common tactic of his to link to random websites or videos that don't say what he claims. I point it out here because it's so preposterous and obviously insane to claim that the four oblasts that Russia partially controls account for 95% of Ukraine's GDP while the remaining 20 oblasts and Kyiv City combined only account for 5%.

And for some context regarding his 'certain' predictions about Russia conquering the Donbas and Odesa: The article was published on September 22nd, after the Kharkiv counteroffensive and one day after Putin announced mobilization. It was absolutely not the time to predict that Russia could easily finish the war soon.

Since the mobilization, MacGregor has become convinced that Russia is raising a large army with modern equipment that will end the war soon, again. He thinks that Russia's failures are actually good because they finally convinced Putin to become serious and create a modern army. This really makes you wonder if there is anything Russia could do that would get criticized by these vatniggers.

The ongoing buildup of 700,000 Russian forces with modern equipment in Western Russia, Eastern Ukraine and Belorussia is a direct consequence of Moscow’s decision to adopt an elastic, strategic defense of the territories it seized in the opening months of the war. It was a wise, though politically unpopular choice in Russia. Yet, the strategy has succeeded. Ukrainian losses have been catastrophic and by November, Russian Forces will be in a position to strike a knockout blow.

Today, there are rumors in the media that Kiev may be under pressure to launch more counterattacks against Russian defenses in Kherson (Southern Ukraine) before the midterm elections in November. At this point, expending what little remains of Ukraine’s life blood to expel Russian forces from Ukraine is hardly synonymous with the preservation of the Ukrainian state.

War and Regrets in Ukraine - The American Conservative

Washington may regret its role in the war in Ukraine.

www.theamericanconservative.com

The opening phase of the SMO was a limited operation with a narrow purpose and restricted goals. The critical point is that Moscow never intended to do more than persuade Kiev and Washington that Moscow would fight to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO, as well as the further mistreatment of Russians in Ukraine. The SMO was, however, based on invalid assumptions and was terminated. As it turned out, the limited nature of the SMO achieved the opposite of the outcome that Moscow desired, conveying the impression of weakness, rather than strength.

(...)

The coming offensive phase of the conflict will provide a glimpse of the new Russian force that is emerging and its future capabilities. At this writing, 540,000 Russian combat forces are assembled in Southern Ukraine, Western Russia, and Belarus. The numbers continue to grow, but the numbers already include 1,000 rocket artillery systems, thousands of tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles, and drones, plus 5,000 armored fighting vehicles, including at least 1,500 tanks, hundreds of manned fixed-wing attack aircraft, helicopters, and bombers. This new force has little in common with the Russian army that intervened 9 months ago on February 24, 2022.

(...)

Put differently, by the time the conflict ends, it appears Washington will have prompted the Russian State to build up its military power, the very opposite of the fatal weakening that Washington intended when it embarked on its course of military confrontation with Moscow.

Washington’s Carthaginian Peace Collides With Reality - The American Conservative

The Biden administration refuses to tell the American people the truth: Ukraine is not winning and will not win this war.

www.theamericanconservative.com

 

[DumbDude43]

This is why the Japanese were effectively destined to lose - they lacked the raw population to take any significant prize like India or Australia.

india, sure, but australia? that place had less than 10 million inhabitants in the 1940s, less than 10% of the japanese population. japan could easily have succeeded at subjugating australia and incorporating it into their empire (if they had found a way to make the british give it up)

 

[Absolute-Despair]

india, sure, but australia? that place had less than 10 million inhabitants in the 1940s, less than 10% of the japanese population. japan could easily have succeeded at subjugating australia and incorporating it into their empire (if they had found a way to make the british give it up)

They probably wouldn’t do it even if they could, it‘d be a bit of a waste of resources since it’s around 40% uninhabitable, not to mention how the British wouldn’t exactly be too happy with them.

Although don’t quote me on that, what I’m saying is mostly hearsay, I’m not the most militarily or geographically literate.

 

[kcbbq]

New Russian fortifications being built spotted by satellite.

Archive



Edit: an Excalibur pitch reel.
View attachment 3986310

I gotta say, even considering it's a tech demo and done under ideal conditions, sending shot 3 through the hole made by shot 2 on a moving sled is pretty amazing.

 

[AnonymousKot]

Am surprised at least one book about the invasion hasn't come out yet. Least I haven't seen one. Anyone else seen any books about this war so far?

I don't think any books are gonna come till next year due to how fast the situation changes every few weeks/months, unless the fighting stops till winter's over but I doubt it due to the artillery and ukraine's attempt to push down south

 

[WhiteNight]

Am surprised at least one book about the invasion hasn't come out yet. Least I haven't seen one. Anyone else seen any books about this war so far?

William Spaniel (University of Pittsburgh) put a book out in June:

What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War?

What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? book. Read reviews from world’s largest community for readers.

www.goodreads.com

 

[JosephStalin]

William Spaniel (University of Pittsburgh) put a book out in June:

What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War?

What Caused the Russia-Ukraine War? book. Read reviews from world’s largest community for readers.

www.goodreads.com

Thanks much. Looking forward to more books.

 

[Ghostse]

india, sure, but australia? that place had less than 10 million inhabitants in the 1940s, less than 10% of the japanese population. japan could easily have succeeded at subjugating australia and incorporating it into their empire (if they had found a way to make the british give it up)

A focused Japan - maybe. However remember they were still fighting the Chinese, still fighting the Phillipines, still flighting insurgency in Malay & Indochina, and Australia was still a goodly way from the imperial homeland and they had taken but weren't able to fully exploit the dutch oil fields.

Australia might have a realtively small number of people, but it was big. Even if we assume that the Aussies to a man decided "Eh, Union Jack, Rising Sun, no difference" and not take to the outback to launch a devestating insurgency, It'd take a disproportionate amount of naval and land personnel to hold.

Which isn't to say they wouldn't do it: UK cutting off grain shipments to Japanese territories was a big cause of war.

Edit: Also I did some checking. Japan had 30 million japanese, Australia had 7 million. Japan was also understandably reluctant to use foreigners in their armies, given they were in the process of enslaving or genociding any place they took over for Lebensraum. They barely permitted the locals to run their own police. So there was no hope of territorial auxilleries upping their army count.