Chinese Communist Party Megathread - Cold War 2: Electric Boogaloo

[SilentDuck]

Used to watch some Zeihan stuff back before he really uploaded much to YouTube, and other people just reupped recordings of his presentations.
The reason he's popped up all of a sudden is Ukraine. In one of his books he said "Russia has UNTIL 2022 to invade Ukraine before it is no longer possible due to bad demographics". And what do you know, 2022 happened to be the year, so suddenly everyone wants to interview the man who "predicted" Ukraine. Man managed to do like 180 Interviews/Presentations throughout 2022 so he definitely knows how to get around.
I wouldn't completely discount the data Zeihan presents, and credit to him or not, he's still saying the same thing he was like a decade ago. You can go back to 2014 and watch videos of him basically saying the same general narrative he says now, although he does shift his deadlines when the ones he postulates fail to be hit.
There's a vintage clip of him on Fox News back in like 2011 claiming that Greece was doomed to crash out of the Eurozone back in the day which is just a general reminder, use Zeihan as an analytical tool, not a roadmap. Plenty of areas where he's been wrong. God help you if you think his American politics opinions are meritable.

What I feel is important about Zeihan now is probably that this is what US intelligencia is going to think about the world going forward, especially seeing as he's contracting for the DOD.

It'd be really interesting to see someone who's actively followed his work really press him during an interview beyond the usual discussion baseline. (I'd also really like to see where he gets his production costs figures for greentech)

Now back on topic to the Chyna stuff, Haven't watched the JRE interview but if you've seen 5 or so Zeihan Interviews you've seen most of them.

Zeihan generally talks about Chinese demographics under the recent Chinese census which was carried out in 2021 that we still have parts missing would argue that there are somewhere between 40-100M missing Chinese that would have been born post One-Child. There is still debate in Chinese academics as to how many this is, but apparently the rate at which the cost of Chinese labour has been rising would argue that it is closer to the 100M.
Now that's a lot of fucking people and would throw the global population back under 8B, but back to the census the data would argue that China is likely already in population decline. Considering that study based on how bright a nation's lights are from space can be equated to their GDP, and China is apparently only 60% as bright as it should be, It's likely that China has likely exaggerated a couple of aspects about itself.
That being said I've heard decent arguments against Zeihans narrative that China's navy cannot sail more than 1000 miles from shore, ones that I would like to research myself when I have the time.

In conclusion, Fuck.

Call me shitzo but Zeihan by his own admission associates with the "special forces community".

I don't think predicting trouble in Ukraine (coming since Euromaidan) was a feat of prescience or demographics but more a tip from his friends that Putin will be provoked into acting.

He's a weather man making meteorological 50/50 odds on far flung events and mixes in some good-feel things the US government wants to sell to a harder to reach audidence that isn't buying what boomervision is selling anymore.

Really no one has any idea what a nation like China would do under his purported demographic pressures or even Russia for that matter. The collapse of the USSR is maybe a reliable model but let's remember the only reason the hard liner nationalists didn't seize power was due to cold war strategists and thinkers in both the East and West that are long dead. The world seems to believe that if anything happened to Putin naturally or unnaturally the end result is Starbucks, McDonalds and iPhones in Moscow again. I don't think so.

Same thing if Xi or the CCPs grasp on China started to slip and there was massive instability. End result is not likely a glorious flag-waving continuation upon the straight line of US ethnocentrism and global predictability,

 

[The Ghost of Kviv]

That being said I've heard decent arguments against Zeihans narrative that China's navy cannot sail more than 1000 miles from shore, ones that I would like to research myself when I have the time.

That may actually hold some truth. Up until the recent navy expansion, China didn't have a replenishment fleet, nor far-off naval bases. They built a couple of them recently, but few flotillas travel to their bases in Africa. But their submarine fleet is similar to the USSR/Russia's: a decently long history and the technical ability to sail to far-off waters.

Anyways, Zeihan's a spook. When he talks it may as well be ODNI speaking.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

They may be ill prepared, but what's preparation when you have a government and power brokers who exist to manipulate so they serve your interests and do your biding, which is what Xi loves to do to achieve his goals?

Shadow games can't make your army not incompetent. China would get the shit kicked out of it in an invasion of Taiwan. And the U.S. would have to respond because of how strategic Taiwan is and how bad it would look to let it fall into Chinese hands, both to a domestic audience and to its Allies in the region.

 

[Random Internet Person]

Shadow games can't make your army not incompetent. China would get the shit kicked out of it in an invasion of Taiwan. And the U.S. would have to respond because of how strategic Taiwan is and how bad it would look to let it fall into Chinese hands, both to a domestic audience and to its Allies in the region.

Shadow games may not be able to make an army stop being incompetent, but they could convince your opponent to take a dive. Maybe Xi gets in touch with a general, tells him to wave the white flag after a while, and China has some (competent) soldiers of a foreign nation to fight under their banner.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Shadow games may not be able to make an army stop being incompetent, but they could convince your opponent to take a dive. Maybe Xi gets in touch with a general, tells him to wave the white flag after a while, and China has some (competent) soldiers of a foreign nation to fight under their banner.

Simply impossible. There's too many other factors at play for paying off one general to matter in the long run. Russia had Ukrainian generals in their pocket prior to their invasion. Those generals were arrested and Russia is currently getting its ass kicked.

 

[SilentDuck]

According to war games run by a non profit US think tank based in Washington named CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies) China is ill prepared for an invasion of Taiwan and would ultimately lose. Here is the China Uncensored episode on it:

-US must participate to its 100% full non-nuclear capacity and abilities. Bringing Japan and its future into the equation against a local age-old nemesis.
-Taiwan's economy and production capabilities are destroyed.
-Every Taiwan civilian needs to fight, and the population is decimated.

But China has it worse(?) and America wins.

I'm noticing a pattern with Washington based research.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

-US must participate to its 100% full non-nuclear capacity and abilities. Bringing Japan and its future into the equation against a local age-old nemesis.
-Taiwan's economy and production capabilities are destroyed.
-Every Taiwan civilian needs to fight, and the population is decimated.

But China has it worse(?) and America wins.

I'm noticing a pattern with Washington based research.

Any war would be devastating to China because it turn it into a pariah state and piss off its largest trade partner. A stupid move at the best of times, a death sentence for a nation this reliant on trade.

 

[Random Internet Person]

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Any war would be devastating to China because it turn it into a pariah state and piss off its largest trade partner. A stupid move at the best of times, a death sentence for a nation this reliant on trade.

Yeah but Xi has no challengers and his big dream is to "unify" China (Taiwan). Because there's no great goal to work towards, the economy was as developed as it was going to get, absolutely no fucking civil liberties would be considered lol). China as a nationstate can wait for the reunification of Taiwan. Xi cannot because he's a retarded idiot who pissed away the majority of the Chinese treasury on Zero-Covid and wants to military to retake Taiwan (a foregone conclusion with US-China relationships at this stage) by force before he dies.

View attachment 4271587

You can't find a single crematorium to cremate someone within a year right now.

When I talk to my friends now, they all agree that Jiang Zemin (Land ceeding aside) and Hu Jintao were probably the closest we'll ever see towards liberty that mainland China will see in this iteration. Too bad the Shianghai faction is basically dead in the water for the next 10 years.
Good luck saying "I don't pay attention to politics" or "It's not my place to say", No longer is living in the peach orchard an excuse.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

(a foregone conclusion with US-China relationships at this stage)

Not a foregone conclusion at all. Taiwan is too strategic for America to even consider allowing it to fall into Chinese hands, not to mention the hit to American prestige and power in the region that would ensue in the U.S. allowing the island to fall. The fact that it isn't a forgone conclusion is the reason it hasn't happened yet.

And even a successful attempt to take the island military would force the Chinese to practically destroy the island economically, which would damage both the Chinese economy and the world economy. Honestly, its neither militarily nor economically feasible to take it at this stage. The only way its happening at all is if the U.S. collapses completely, which, despite what doomers insist, isn't happening anytime soon.

 

[Darkholme's Dungeon]

Not a foregone conclusion at all.

Foregone for the Chinese. I should say.
There's no chance in hell of them taking it now. Not unless a civil war kicks off stateside or we get Able Archer 23' turned hot with Russia.
My (mostly conjecture) theory is that the Chinese took the 2008 inflationary hit for the US in exchange for Taiwan. Now, obviously you should never trust a promise, especially a verbal one between politicians. But now Xi has kinda played China into a corner by an open rupture with the US. He can't (he wont) back down without saving face, but the US isn't going to let him save face.

Also fuck Xi and his anti-corruption bullshit, they won't allow people to bring Paxlovid to China because they wanted Piftzer to sell it for 300 RMB (40 USD) per a medicine when they sold it to the US gov for 500 USD. Like nigga the original offer was 500 RMB (70 USD) just take the god damn L but nooo, they gotta do it to save face. Now party officials can just have iy imported for themselves but I either have to smuggle it in and bribe a high ranking official, or try to find some shitty pajeet ripoff med for 10,000 rmb (~1400 USD, roughly a monthly salary for most people in China).

God I miss the old styled customs. At least I know how much I need to bribe and who.

 

[Battlefield2142EU]

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The Warlord era was such an underrated time period in Chinese history. What's the odds we will see the rise of Chinese warlords again if the CCP collapses? The boxer rebellion retarded as hell and Rwanda genocide tier. Boxers deserve to be humiliated and made fun of for being stupid.

 

[Jonah Hill poster]

This should go over swell.

 

[Battlefield2142EU]

Will China Surpass the US?

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A little reminder that China will surpass the United States is mostly based upon corporate America, especially big tech, rather than its actual reality itself. It's nothing but corporate hype.

 

[SilentDuck]

Think comments were turned off in the first few hours.

Pretty much what you would expect. Staging marines on islands without logistical support is not a great idea, and they are the first targets to China who knows they are there. Overall US military doctrine is that attacking is always better than defending. Marines sitting around on defense without logistical support historically "does not go well'"

But there is an actual plan for Pacific forces. Current media narrative is that Ukraine is going 'so poorly' for Russia that China is now 'scared' to invade. If that's the case it's pretty strange to see Japan and Taiwan out on a global tour for defense support and a Marine deployment plan.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

If that's the case it's pretty strange to see Japan and Taiwan out on a global tour for defense support and a Marine deployment plan.

The threat of American power is often more than enough, and far more useful, than the actual application of such. The point of the deployment is to give China no room to breath and make it clear that any attempt to cause shenanigans will be met with overwhelming force.

 

[Super-Chevy454]

It might be not directly related to this thread but the guys of American Thinker posted an article about China's demographic tailspin.

China has begun its inevitable demographic tailspin

The New York Times reports that China has admitted for the first time that its population is declining. (I’ve heard from sources that this has been going on for some time; what’s different is that China is admitting it.) Populations acros...

www.americanthinker.com

January 17, 2023

China has begun its inevitable demographic tailspin​

By Andrea Widburg


The New York Times reports that China has admitted for the first time that its population is declining. (I’ve heard from sources that this has been going on for some time; what’s different is that China is admitting it.) Populations across the West are declining as well, including in the U.S. What does this mean for our children and grandchildren? The sure bet is that they will not live as we have lived.
In 1968, Paul Ehrlich and his wife wrote The Population Bomb, a book that quite literally changed (and is continuing to change) the Western world. Basically, it was premised on the Malthusian concept that a wealthy society, rather than planning for the lean years, simply produces so many people that its resources fail, at which point there is a horrible, painful, and violent collapse involving mass starvation and war as different nations fight for scarce resources.
What neither Thomas Malthus nor the Ehrlichs envisioned (although the Ehrlichs should have) was that technology would make such great advances that well-run countries are able to feed not only their own citizens but other countries’ citizens as well. Paul Ehrlich is still out there shilling his failed theories, and Western countries are still acting as if they’re real.

The result of Ehrlich’s theories is that Western countries, which used technology to feed themselves and others, are no longer replacing themselves and are in steep demographic decline. Although it’s not literally a Western country, within the concept of the modern, developed world, China is the country that keeps the rest of us supplied with just about everything. And now, China has admitted that it also belongs on the demographic decline list, resulting from 50 years of its disastrous “one child” policy, which led to the mass murder of female fetuses and infants.

 

[Conefused By Alphabets]

Rather than that laugh of a CSIS report where both western and Taiwan experts found it professionally lacking and privately a joke, here is a serious report by the Rand corporation:

"...Findings
This report is an analysis of interests affecting three actors (the United States, Taiwan, and the PRC). Any actors could choose a different path, with or without a careful evaluation of underlying interests. Nevertheless, some general findings do apply:

The Economic Balance of Power Between Taiwan and China Favors the PRC
If reduced to a simple question of who would ultimately prevail in an economic or military conflict, the PRC has effectively every advantage over Taiwan, and if the confrontation were to go on for a prolonged period, the PRC is in a much better position to endure whatever consequences might develop. This would likely be the case even if the United States were to attempt economic pressure on the PRC.

Direct Pressure Will Likely Be Necessary to Break the Quarantine
Whether such pressure derives from ignoring the quarantine with unescorted shipping— unlikely given escalation of insurance rates and reluctance of ocean carriers to risk their ships and crews—by escorting shipping, or by attacking the forces imposing the quarantine, direct pressure will be required to allow shipping to flow. While there may be room to negotiate the movement of particular kinds of commodities, if the PRC declines to allow free shipment, no amount of indirect pressure is likely to result in the PRC abandoning its efforts.

A Counterblockade Is Unlikely to Be Successful
The PRC’s economy is too large and varied to be quickly affected by a blockade, and, as the blockade progresses, it will affect other nations. More to the point, however, is that the quarantine on Taiwan is likely to have an effect much more rapidly. A counterblockade might be useful in conjunction with direct action, but it is unlikely to work rapidly enough on its own to change the PRC’s behavior. ..."

All of this simply means that real experts think the PLA can choke out Taiwan, and there is fuck all America can do militaristically. The report also noted economically there is no war to win also. The only battlefield left is the political field, and you can only cover your ears for so long before adjusting optics and changing tune like with Ukraine.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Rather than that laugh of a CSIS report where both western and Taiwan experts found it professionally lacking and privately a joke, here is a serious report by the Rand corporation:

"...Findings
This report is an analysis of interests affecting three actors (the United States, Taiwan, and the PRC). Any actors could choose a different path, with or without a careful evaluation of underlying interests. Nevertheless, some general findings do apply:

The Economic Balance of Power Between Taiwan and China Favors the PRC
If reduced to a simple question of who would ultimately prevail in an economic or military conflict, the PRC has effectively every advantage over Taiwan, and if the confrontation were to go on for a prolonged period, the PRC is in a much better position to endure whatever consequences might develop. This would likely be the case even if the United States were to attempt economic pressure on the PRC.

Direct Pressure Will Likely Be Necessary to Break the Quarantine
Whether such pressure derives from ignoring the quarantine with unescorted shipping— unlikely given escalation of insurance rates and reluctance of ocean carriers to risk their ships and crews—by escorting shipping, or by attacking the forces imposing the quarantine, direct pressure will be required to allow shipping to flow. While there may be room to negotiate the movement of particular kinds of commodities, if the PRC declines to allow free shipment, no amount of indirect pressure is likely to result in the PRC abandoning its efforts.

A Counterblockade Is Unlikely to Be Successful
The PRC’s economy is too large and varied to be quickly affected by a blockade, and, as the blockade progresses, it will affect other nations. More to the point, however, is that the quarantine on Taiwan is likely to have an effect much more rapidly. A counterblockade might be useful in conjunction with direct action, but it is unlikely to work rapidly enough on its own to change the PRC’s behavior. ..."

All of this simply means that real experts think the PLA can choke out Taiwan, and there is fuck all America can do militaristically. The report also noted economically there is no war to win also. The only battlefield left is the political field, and you can only cover your ears for so long before adjusting optics and changing tune like with Ukraine.

It doesn't say their isn't anything the U.S. can do militarily. It practically saying that direct U.S. intervention would be necessary in this scenario. This report also ignores how important Taiwan is to the world economy since it produces over 90% of the world's semiconductors, which would encourage an immediate response by the U.S. in the event of blockade, along with other regional powers like Japan. In other words, a blockade won't work, not in the long run, as the longer China draws this out, the more likely the U.S. will get directly involved. China's main hope is to strike quickly enough that the U.S. would be forced into a fait accompli as it would be too late to save the island.

 

[Conefused By Alphabets]

It doesn't say their isn't anything the U.S. can do militarily. It practically saying that direct U.S. intervention would be necessary in this scenario.

You are right direct intervention is needed, and this report explicitly ignores the political ramifications because it is an astute research entity leaving the speculations to the commentators, so let me break it down how the US won't do anything militarily.

This report also ignores how important Taiwan is to the world economy since it produces over 90% of the world's semiconductors, which would encourage an immediate response by the U.S. in the event of blockade, along with other regional powers like Japan.

Yes, an immediate Non militaristic response, especially when American generals are explicitly saying there is no threat, and they perceive no threat, despite how much the political commentators, other branches of government, other allies, say otherwise. It is more likely that Japan would be in conflict, and not the US directly, which still makes me technically right.

In other words, a blockade won't work, not in the long run, as the longer China draws this out, the more likely the U.S. will get directly involved. China's main hope is to strike quickly enough that the U.S. would be forced into a fait accompli as it would be too late to save the island.

The incident with Nancy is militaristic proof of why it would work. The US Navy didn't accompany a direct flight on the seas, and Nancy made a path that took two extra hours than a direct flight. There is also the incident near Guam, and both times shows how the US military aims for no direct conflict at all costs. The longer the sea conflict, the more likely the US will get involved, which in turn makes generals more hesitant to not be responsible for the lost of American lives on the battlefield, in turn, less likely for US military involvement to support Taiwan, just like Ukraine.

Conversely, it is precisely the same faulty fait accompli that made US think tanks suggest to nuke Taiwan's TSMC so that China doesn't get their hands on it. I guess any batshit insane idea is valid when ultimately it doesn't effect Americans.