Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Ghostse]

Funfact: wagnetards aren't protected by international war in this case. They aren't soldiers, they aren't civilians helping own forces in war ont they land, they aren't even insurgents. The only legal frameworks than protect/non protect them from execution/hanging on na tree/seting them of fire after capture is local war of whatever country they are.

Incorrect - sort of.

The Geneva Convention (specifically the UN convention on war and most specific the UN convention on mercenaries) defines a mercenary as someone who meets all 6 of the following:

a) is specially recruited locally or abroad in order to fight in an armed conflict;
b) does, in fact, take a direct part in the hostilities;
c) is motivated to take part in the hostilities essentially by the desire for private gain and, in fact, is promised, by or on behalf of a Party to the conflict, material compensation substantially in excess of that promised or paid to combatants of similar ranks and functions in the armed forces of that Party;
d) is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict;
e) is not a member of the armed forces of a Party to the conflict; and
f) has not been sent by a State which is not a Party to the conflict on official duty as a member of its armed forces.

This resolution was mainly added to the Geneva convention to address Executive Outcomes types - that is, armed individuals working largely on the behalf of private entities to support coups & overthrows. Modern PMC bullshit was not considered.

Legally defined mercenaries like this are not considered lawful combatants, and thus are not afforded POW status and protections, but if captured are entitled to normal legal protections - you have to put them on trial, you can't just summarily execute them. But none of the other requirements regarding treatment or conditions apply.

PMCs are in a light grey area. The US historically has hidden its PMCs behind b), using the argument that PMCs like Blackwater are running logistics and security and thus not directly taking part in the hostilities; if they do engage in combat it is incidental to their support mission; even civilian medical units are allowed to carry light arms and defend themselves.
I'm not sure how Wagner is classed in Russian hierarchy, given they are directly engaging in combat and b) most certainly applies. If Russia has officially 'deputized' the Wagner soldiers it hires as part of their military, they'd be protected.

Mainly though, everyone's been performing a sort of 'gentlemen's agreement' when it comes to PMC personnel; as long as they are uniformed, they are to be treated as lawful combatants, but its also usually been Asymmetric situations. This is the first time the convention might get a real test.
edit: I mean it won't, there will be a back room deal worked out avoid having to hash through it, but its possible

 

[MG-34]

View attachment 4562478

crewed zigger APC gets blown up by a close range RPG shot, somewhere in the Donetsk Oblast

Driving into rows of unburied landmines over and over and now driving parallel to pre established trenchlines manned with enemy infantry. Is there some Russian law that says only retarded people can drive BMPs?

 

[Ghostse]

going by laws of war, wagner men are mercenaries. if i remember right, some major international treaty explicitly exempts mercenaries from the protections and rights that are given to lawful combatants - like, i think you arent obligated to accept surrender from them, dont have to give them PoW status, etc. when those treaties and conventions were signed, the states involved really really did not like the idea of mercenaries in general, and it shows.

If classed as mercenaries, correct. Their opponents are not obligated to accept surrender, they are not entitled to POW protections; They are treated as any other citizen doing violence (i.e. open to charges of treason/sedition)

But you're wrong about the states not liking mercenaries; they liked hired soldiers just fine. What they didn't like was Execute Outcomes sorts who were operating on their own imitative.

Protocol I to the Geneva Convention, which deals with mercenaries and guerrillas, among other things, is a confused, contradictory mess

Its written to provide a framework to deal with Executive Outcome regime changers, and to provide a million loopholes for State-Actioned hired troops, and also given Nation States a million loopholes to disavow any hired guns if they need to.

That is, Nation-States are allowed to hire foreign fighters - but everyone signed an agreement saying this is very naughty and we should really not do this, while providing no punishments for ignoring it and doing it anyway - but those foreign fighters must be integrated into the armed forces of that nation-state; meaning those fighters must behave according to the Geneva Convention and the Nation-State is on the hook if they don't.
So if you think your Mercenary Units are going rogue (or you told them to run buckwild and now are getting called to account) you can cut them loose.

Not entirely accurate. Wagner is very clearly under the control and orders of a State, so they should be afforded POW status unless clearly breaking the laws of war. Which wearing an enemy uniform is a big no no.

There is a difference between "very clearly" and "legally". Unless officially under control of the state, they would not classed as Lawful Combatants. If under control of the state, they have been doing a lot of very big no-no's like wearing enemy uniforms.

 

[CuzinEd]

It's from 12 days ago but Ukraine is getting A-10 Thunderbolts. I hope there is video of them wrecking shit. I would also like to see how well they do against Russian AA because of the A-10's reputation. It is said it can fly with just 1 wing. The cockpit is supposedly lined with titanium. It was built for ground attacks against the Soviets.

 

[CaptainAutism69]

Incorrect - sort of.

The Geneva Convention (specifically the UN convention on war and most specific the UN convention on mercenaries) defines a mercenary as someone who meets all 6 of the following:


This resolution was mainly added to the Geneva convention to address Executive Outcomes types - that is, armed individuals working largely on the behalf of private entities to support coups & overthrows. Modern PMC bullshit was not considered.

Legally defined mercenaries like this are not considered lawful combatants, and thus are not afforded POW status and protections, but if captured are entitled to normal legal protections - you have to put them on trial, you can't just summarily execute them. But none of the other requirements regarding treatment or conditions apply.

PMCs are in a light grey area. The US historically has hidden its PMCs behind b), using the argument that PMCs like Blackwater are running logistics and security and thus not directly taking part in the hostilities; if they do engage in combat it is incidental to their support mission; even civilian medical units are allowed to carry light arms and defend themselves.
I'm not sure how Wagner is classed in Russian hierarchy, given they are directly engaging in combat and b) most certainly applies. If Russia has officially 'deputized' the Wagner soldiers it hires as part of their military, they'd be protected.

Mainly though, everyone's been performing a sort of 'gentlemen's agreement' when it comes to PMC personnel; as long as they are uniformed, they are to be treated as lawful combatants, but its also usually been Asymmetric situations. This is the first time the convention might get a real test.
edit: I mean it won't, there will be a back room deal worked out avoid having to hash through it, but its possible

Let's be quite honest, war crimes only matter to the point that the 'winners' get to parade the 'losers' in court and make them look like bigger losers. Winners never see court.

 

[cybertoaster]

Why use SAM's when you could saturate the area with dumbfire rockets? Its not like there's anything new there since stuff like that was talked about during WW2. A mix of VT and MT fuses would be sufficient to ensure a blanket barrage. You don't even need anything fancy for fuel since WW2 rockets all used bitch-basic gunpowder for their propellant.

I been thinking about VT but for that to work properly in this case you would have to do a 180° barrage and with enough distance which when even tiny drones becoming ridiculously fast it would be a matter of very rapid reaction, the swarm might not be detected on time. Too small and low-flying for radar, and on IR it might look like a flock of birds.

And the problem with dumb fire is collateral damage, hell these things could be programmed to draw fire and create collateral damage on purpose by flying towards troops and lightly-armored vehicles thus getting the VT shells to do their work for them.

Dunno, shit like this would require a ton of simulations to see how it would all pan out. One solution IMO would be heavy ECM, since the swarm's intelligence its distributed with every drone acting as a node the ECM would crash the whole system. Of course this would only work as long as direct laser links remain too big or expensive for small drones. The moment that changes, well, I don't know how (or if) laser comms can be jammed.

USSR citizenship was technically divided into different SSR citizenships, and the soviet state routinely moved people from one SSR to live and work in another SSR. that's how a lot of russian SFSR citizens ended up living in places like estonian SSR, latvian SSR, lithuanian SSR, etc.
after the soviet breakup, the SSRs were replaced by sovereign states and former SSR citizenship became citizenship in these new states. for example, citizens of latvian SSR became citizens of the new latvian nation state, while citizens of russian SFSR became citizens of the new russian federation - but they didn't magically teleport back to russia just because the USSR dissolved, they stayed in the countries they had moved into years ago. that's why all these russians are in these non russian countries.

Its been 30 years, shouldn't they have citizenship by now? or its one of those cases where they would've to renounce their russian citizenship and they refuse to do that?

 

[LeChampion1992]

Probably explains all those videos of "Ukrainian soldiers despairing in Bakhmut" @Feline Supremacist was posting.

Feline surpremacist and the rest of the pro Russia guys are "if you don't think the west is 100% evil and think Russia faces any troubles you're just a holhol lover." As someone who got banned front he other containment thread yeah it's sad.

Even their founder claims it's a private org, while Kremlin exercises plausible deniability. We know they work on behalf of the state, but why would you afford them favorable conditions? Can't have your cake and eat it too.
With their (il)legal status in mind, seems like they aren't a subject to international treaties. Meaning that at the very least they can't be trusted to follow any of it.

Russian public still doesn't recognize their crimes in foreign countries, such as butchering this civilian in Syria: https://novayagazeta.ru/articles/2019/11/20/82805-golovorezy-21
There's no accountability whatsoever.

The idea for Wagner is simple. They do all the ugly and dirty work and kill civilians and wipe out towns and cities out of existence. Meanwhile the rest of the Russians are blissfully unaware and shitposting online saying Russian soldiers don't commit war crimes those are Ukrainians or at worst mercs like the US kind.

View attachment 4562478

crewed zigger APC gets blown up by a close range RPG shot, somewhere in the Donetsk Oblast

That's not true that's a Ukraine vehicle, Russia stronk units are killing Zelinskys men because he's an evil kike shill!!!!!!!!
Ruzzia isn't losing global homo is and hahaha you guys are coping Ukraine will within two weeks !!!!!
((I'm just venting my frustrations with the pro Russian farmers ATM.)

 

[cybertoaster]

It's from 12 days ago but Ukraine is getting A-10 Thunderbolts. I hope there is video of them wrecking shit. I would also like to see how well they do against Russian AA because of the A-10's reputation. It is said it can fly with just 1 wing. The cockpit is supposedly lined with titanium. It was built for ground attacks against the Soviets.

Don't know if that's good or bad.

 

[Fait Accompli]

Don't know if that's good or bad.

The A-10 is fucking incredible, basically a gun that had an aircraft built around it....but

Its optimal in an area where there is air supremacy which limited enemy AA capabilities, in such a contested air area that is Ukraine, the A-10 would be worthless. I mean, Russia has a huge airforce and they can only do limited excursions into Ukraine. Sending aircraft with good SEAD and air supremacy capabilities would be a much better option

Also, why tf did they split the threads? Seems pointless, there is no discussion anymore ( even if i think most pro-russians were retarded, atleast it was an exchange )
Boo on you Kiwifarms

 

[LeChampion1992]

@Based Boy since (I can't respond directly since I upset the Z people for breaking containment.)


(([But i doubt that there would be any of that now, after the war started.
If US priority was simply stopping the war while it is contained within Ukraine, than all they had to do is to let Ukraine and Russia sign one of the drafted agreements. All the talk of Russia going further is nothing more than dishonest justification for further arms shipments to Ukraine, just so the war can go on.
I will admit that if Russia can get land bridge to Pridnestrove, then it would be annexed into Russia. But that as far as it will go if Moldova does not have pro-Russian government. )))

R~ My big concern is about the baltic states with all three nations being both members of NATO and open conflict with NATO has a 90% going nuclear

((( If it does, then Russia will annex Moldova too, but that is about as far as Russia can go without starting a nuclear war. And there is a lot they need to do to even get to Pridnestrove borders to begin with. I think US will call for peace talks long before it happens.
(My big concern for Moldova is perhaps Romania decides to partition it and at this point barring a million new men, tanks and supplies I'm looking at the point of further Russian operations beyond the Dniper river a pipe dream especially with them being bogged down in Bakhmut.

And to your point about casualties. There is a sports-like mentality on both sides when it comes to anything that can bring down moral. You can't find any truthful casualty numbers from Ukrainian or Russian MoD (at least it is assumed that you can't, and they do not have any obligation to truthfully declare number of casualties.), and anything else is just guesswork at this point in time. Usually people go with something that helps them sleep at night. (Typically low Russian casualties/high Ukrainian casualties for pro-Russians, high Russian casualties/low Ukrainian casualties for pro-Ukrainians. How true any of those assessments nobody really knows.) You can throw made up casualty numbers as bait, though. It is usually how they are used.)))

I'm going with the most realistic assessment. This is sneak peak into what WW3 would look like. It's going to be less flashy with nukes and helicopters and it's more going to be reverting back to trench warfare, and artillery warfare. Intense casualties would be taken within the first year then afterwards would be a slow, long war of grinding attrition til the other side comes out with a proper advantage.

 

[Fortyone]

Don't know if that's good or bad.

this guy is overrated imo, but he did dab on coach redpill which is funny

 

[LeChampion1992]

The A-10 is fucking incredible, basically a gun that had an aircraft built around it....but

Its optimal in an area where there is air supremacy which limited enemy AA capabilities, in such a contested air area that is Ukraine, the A-10 would be worthless. I mean, Russia has a huge airforce and they can only do limited excursions into Ukraine. Sending aircraft with good SEAD and air supremacy capabilities would be a much better option

Also, why tf did they split the threads? Seems pointless, there is no discussion anymore ( even if i think most pro-russians were retarded, atleast it was an exchange )
Boo on you Kiwifarms

The threads were split because pro Russia and pro Ukraine people would speak over eachother and quite often would get into flame wars and anger the admins. Long story short people like Feline surpremacist and a bunch of pol tards have turned into Chug posters on 4chan. Even if you have proof and battlefield data that Russians are getting blown to bits they will post NATO gay cucks and lol HolHols mad. This is why you will hear incomprehensible nonsense like the Russian military has killed off all the Ukrainian men and Ukraine will collapse soon and Jewlinksky is finished.

this guy is overrated imo, but he did dab on coach redpill which is funny

He's been rather on the money with his points during the war and Coach Red pill went from someone on the money to utterly shattering any credibility or reputation they have now.

Let's be quite honest, war crimes only matter to the point that the 'winners' get to parade the 'losers' in court and make them look like bigger losers. Winners never see court.

Looky here Jimbo it's only a war crime if you lose. At this point Hollywood/Netflix will probably make a movie over the Bucha massacre and it will be a top film.

 

[cybertoaster]

this guy is overrated imo, but he did dab on coach redpill which is funny

I don't really follow the guy, what happened?

 

[mindlessobserver]

And lets see PMC Wagner:

- they aren't part of ruzzian armed forces in any terms (so point 1) goes to the hell);

This is a legal fiction created by Russia, since even Russian law does not allow for the existence of Wagner, yet clearly they do exist. They are just armed with weapons and supplies marked "expired" by Military officials. This fiction though is largely for domestic audiences then foreign ones. The plebes like to think Wagner is some sort of fighters guild in an RPG fighting on the side of righteousness, rather then just another arm of the Russian State. Internationally there really is no difference in viewing Wagner as a paramilitary arm of the Russian Government, much like US Army Spec Ops with no patches or insignia on a mission in an unspecified country.

- point 2) goes to hell also - they didn't have any leaders that are reasponsible for they actions and also they aren't a volunteer corps nor militia - they cannot be private-owned VC or militia;

They are answerable to Prigozhin, and Prighozin is clearly answerable to Putin, who is the commander-in-chief of the Russian Armed forces. There is a chain command that leads back to the organized Russian Military, even if that chain skips literally every soldier in uniform.

- point 3) also goes to hell in case of PMC, they aren't suborbinates of any gov., but of their owner Big Bald P.;

Bald P would not dare do shit unless Putin let him.

- points 4) and 5) also goes to hell (obvious);

True, they are not camp followers. Though some of the convicts probably are homosexual sex slaves anyway. I believe the formal term is catamites.

- point 6) in THEORY can be that which covered PMC... after start of war, in first weeks or months. Not after a year. They had plenty of time to at least deteached them to ruzzkie regulars and uniform them to some point.

Nah, this would apply more to the traitor Ukrainians in the DPR and LPR armies. Not Wagner. This part of the laws of War is designed to protect the poor sap 18 year in Donetsk who has only known Russian rule, being drafted into the army of a country that does not exist, and then gets captured by the Army of the country he is ostensibly a citizen of, but had up until that point been fighting. Is he a traitor? Murderer? Or Enemy Combatant? This part of the laws of war exists to prevent that kid just being hanged from the nearest lamp pole.

To check who is, and who isn't mercenary we must look to Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949, and relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), 8 June 1977.

Article 47 point 2 letter d loudly told us that mercenary must be a citizen or resident of territory controlled by party. So ALL PMC members that has ruzzian citizenship aren't mercenaries, and those foreigners who are part of PMC will not be mercenaries if they reside in ruzzia or ruzzia-controlled territory. Who is and who isn't resident is a sperging lvl expert so not this time.

It is hard to tell who are members of pmc's, but one can be stated clear: they aren't covered by Geneva III. Nor the PA (un)covers them. So they should be counted as random guy who was stupid enough to have a gun and commit a offense (criminal) near frontline. So only country-level legislation could cover him.

IF I was forced to point one illegal ukrainian action that I will point giving captured members of PMC to ruzzia. None international law allows to give someone without any legal procedures to other country. Even worse: Ukrainian SHOULD predict that at least some of PMC members will be killed after sending them back to ruzzia. Killing someone when he is surrending or when try to capture (and even seconds after capture) is one thing, sending someone to be hammerized by degenerates from wagnetards is another thing.

In general it makes more sense to have a policy in place that makes it easier for enemy soldiers to surrender rather then fight to the death. Surrendered enemies are just as good as dead enemies, but they are far easier to acquire. Provided of course they assume they are better off surrendering then fighting to the death. This is part of the reason the US Army was so successful in the Iraq War. Enemy units surrendered en masse because they knew we would not kill them if they did. Alternatively they knew if they didn't surrender they would die.

It was an easy choice for them to make, and it made it stupid easy for us to annihilate the Iraqi military in weeks.

 

[LeChampion1992]

I don't really follow the guy, what happened?

Gonzalo lira aka coach Red pill challenged destiny and Lazerpig to a debate against him.
The entire thing went on this.
Destiny checks out after 30 minutes because coach Red pills entire speech was NATO is evil and anyone who supports NATO is evil!!!!!
Lazerpig sat through it, and CRP called him evil despite the fact Lazerpig is a gay scotsman who.
Coach Red pill rages and loses like a third if his subscribers to Patreon in like a week long period.

 

[Fait Accompli]

The threads were split because pro Russia and pro Ukraine people would speak over eachother and quite often would get into flame wars and anger the admins. Long story short people like Feline surpremacist and a bunch of pol tards have turned into Chug posters on 4chan. Even if you have proof and battlefield data that Russians are getting blown to bits they will post NATO gay cucks and lol HolHols mad. This is why you will hear incomprehensible nonsense like the Russian military has killed off all the Ukrainian men and Ukraine will collapse soon and Jewlinksky is finished.

He's been rather on the money with his points during the war and Coach Red pill went from someone on the money to utterly shattering any credibility or reputation they have now.

Looky here Jimbo it's only a war crime if you lose. At this point Hollywood/Netflix will probably make a movie over the Bucha massacre and it will be a top film.

They should have just warned or suspended the fact resistant retards from both sides and allow a more reasonable debate, but i guess thats too much wOrK

God, now i need to add something on topic. Uhm...
First battalion of AMX ACs have been delivered now i saw? Trained and all, will be exciting to see what they can do.

 

[LeChampion1992]

They should have just warned or suspended the fact resistant retards from both sides and allow a more reasonable debate, but i guess thats too much wOrK

God, now i need to add something on topic. Uhm...
First battalion of AMX ACs have been delivered now i saw? Trained and all, will be exciting to see what they can do.

But if we did that it would cause a bigger shit show because then Jersh would be side Ukraine and some random Russian would be joining in with the shut down kiwifarms. Same thing if he did it vice versa which is utterly retarded because the ignorance of facts is leading to this event.

But my posts got deleted because you know "Russia stronk never fail never suck"!!!!

 

[mindlessobserver]

Talk about how Ukraine can use the Stryker

 

[Blatant hypocrite]

It's from 12 days ago but Ukraine is getting A-10 Thunderbolts. I hope there is video of them wrecking shit. I would also like to see how well they do against Russian AA because of the A-10's reputation. It is said it can fly with just 1 wing. The cockpit is supposedly lined with titanium. It was built for ground attacks against the Soviets.

Haven't seen this reported anywhere. This is just a video of the A-10 doing random shit, there's no evidence to suggest it's anywhere near Ukraine.

 

[Based Boy]

My big concern is about the baltic states with all three nations being both members of NATO and open conflict with NATO has a 90% going nuclear

Baltic countries are NATO members, so i don't think that there will be any attack on them from the Russian side. While Estonia has sizable Russian population within its borders, there does not seem to be any attempt at separatism.

My big concern for Moldova is perhaps Romania decides to partition it and at this point barring a million new men, tanks and supplies I'm looking at the point of further Russian operations beyond the Dniper river a pipe dream especially with them being bogged down in Bakhmut.

If Romania wants to reunite with Moldova, i believe it can be arranged without a war, if they let Transnistria go. Regarding operations over Dnepr, is hard to tell. I don't think they will try to force it, but who knows. The only way they can do it without too much losses is going around it through Belarus. But Belarus staying neutral so far.

I'm going with the most realistic assessment. This is sneak peak into what WW3 would look like. It's going to be less flashy with nukes and helicopters and it's more going to be reverting back to trench warfare, and artillery warfare. Intense casualties would be taken within the first year then afterwards would be a slow, long war of grinding attrition til the other side comes out with a proper advantage.

Well, its hard for me to really tell without hard numbers. I thought about the possibility of both sides telling the truth about casualties on their opponent side, but there is no way to verify them.