Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Talk about how Ukraine can use the Stryker

Strikers are basically APCs meet IFVs in this war it's going to be quite useful as an auto cannon is quite effective at destroying enemies inside a building. People also forget that during the early days of the the war the two most targeted vehicles on Russian side were one it's trucks and two were it's APCs/IFVs So during the early days of the war Russian BMPs, BTRs and trucks were destroyed in massive numbers. For Ukraine the striker would be effective in the fact they're great battle taxi's you can get your wounded out quickly, fire on the go,flee the scene before the enemy can overrun and overwhelm you.
Baltic countries are NATO members, so i don't think that there will be any attack on them from the Russian side. While Estonia has sizable Russian population within its borders, there does not seem to be any attempt at separatism.

If Romania wants to reunite with Moldova, i believe it can be arranged without a war, if they let Transnistria go. Regarding operations over Dnepr, is hard to tell. I don't think they will try to force it, but who knows. The only way they can do it without too much losses is going around it through Belarus. But Belarus staying neutral so far.

Well, its hard for me to really tell without hard numbers. I thought about the possibility of both sides telling the truth about casualties on their opponent side, but there is no way to verify them.
The best estimate I am able to do is sadly trust open source intelligence.
there is one point I think that can be taken.
Both sides have realistically taken very heavy casualties. We have heard from Russian insiders that the fighting in cities like Mariupol and other places would make Grozny seem like a picnic.
In this war I would error in favor on the side of Ukraine but I wouldn't flat out ignore Russian intelligence either.
From the "Norwegian minister of defense" pro NATO but not the US has said the number of Ukrainian casualties is over 100,000 over 30,000 civilians, and almost 180,000 in Russian casualties. *Edit I know these are wikipedia numbers but there are multiple sources so one has to basically infer the truth is probably somewhere more likely in the middle between Russian numbers and Ukraine/US numbers. To put this into perspective there hasn't been a war this deadly to Russia since WW2. Even in Afghanistan in a ten year process they lost around 30,000 soldier's the numbers here are at least double that (I know I'm assuming but it's a safer assumption.)
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The best estimate I am able to do is sadly trust open source intelligence.
there is one point I think that can be taken.
Both sides have realistically taken very heavy casualties. We have heard from Russian insiders that the fighting in cities like Mariupol and other places would make Grozny seem like a picnic.
In this war I would error in favor on the side of Ukraine but I wouldn't flat out ignore Russian intelligence either.
From the "Norwegian minister of defense" pro NATO but not the US has said the number of Ukrainian casualties is over 100,000 over 30,000 civilians, and almost 180,000 in Russian casualties. *Edit I know these are wikipedia numbers but there are multiple sources so one has to basically infer the truth is probably somewhere more likely in the middle between Russian numbers and Ukraine/US numbers. To put this into perspective there hasn't been a war this deadly to Russia since WW2. Even in Afghanistan in a ten year process they lost around 30,000 soldier's the numbers here are at least double that (I know I'm assuming but it's a safer assumption.)
Well, i took a hard stance on this issue and said that i will not speculate on the number of casualties on either side until the war is over and non-propaganda numbers are starting to come in (if it even happens.). There is a large interest on each side to present the other one as losing more. I think the motivation is obvious.
Admittedly, i said about 300k Ukrainian casualties ones, but it was done at a time where there was supposed exodus of pro-Ukrainian people from News thread because jannies could not keep their power in their pants. It was done to see how much dumb ratings i would be able to collect and i did not actually believe that there is 300k dead on Ukrainian side.
 
Russia is accused of kidnapping children in Ukraine and deporting them into Russia

read also in a Swedish newspaper, that the older children are being "trained" in military style camps.
So if I’m reading this right, Russia is allegedly taking Ukrainian kids from their families and shipping them to camps in the Siberian tundra.

Sounds like China and the Ughyurs. And probably something that /pol/ would try to do if they got into office, but with “the fighting age men”.

View attachment 4550069
So is she a General or some civilian equivalent like EMERCOM?
So what could she have been looking for that led to this? Or was this just she wasn’t down for the cause by Putin’s standards?
 
Well, i took a hard stance on this issue and said that i will not speculate on the number of casualties on either side until the war is over and non-propaganda numbers are starting to come in (if it even happens.). There is a large interest on each side to present the other one as losing more. I think the motivation is obvious.
Admittedly, i said about 300k Ukrainian casualties ones, but it was done at a time where there was supposed exodus of pro-Ukrainian people from News thread because jannies could not keep their power in their pants. It was done to see how much dumb ratings i would be able to collect and i did not actually believe that there is 300k dead on Ukrainian side.
Unfortunately there is never going to be fully accurate numbers from this war. But one can try to infer their own numbers to relative accuracy.

I unfortunately think a lot of people take the pro Russia line because the west has become so fake and gay by pushing an anti white neo Marxist agenda. So they take the enemy of my enemy is my friend line.

So far I have to say the biggest winner of this war is the arms industry. This war reminds me of Korea where the Korean war took out like large swaths of US WW2 backstock they had left over. It got so bad the arms industry had to start rehiring in the 1950s and a wave of high income jobs were formed from people being hired at the arms industry.

So if I’m reading this right, Russia is allegedly taking Ukrainian kids from their families and shipping them to camps in the Siberian tundra.

Sounds like China and the Ughyurs. And probably something that /pol/ would try to do if they got into office, but with “the fighting age men”.


So what could she have been looking for that led to this? Or was this just she wasn’t down for the cause by Putin’s standards?
What is it with Russia and taking Ukrainians from their rightful land and mass deporting them to Siberia.
I would say this is Communism but this is the third time in a 200 year period that the Russians have taken essentially mass kidnapped the populace of Ukraine. I swear I think this war is less about going after NATO and more of a "Russia is your nation now don't you think of leaving us or else."
 
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What is it with Russia and taking Ukrainians from their rightful land and mass deporting them to Siberia.
I would say this is Communism but this is the third time in a 200 year period that the Russians have taken essentially mass kidnapped the populace of Ukraine. I swear I think this war is less about going after NATO and more of a "Russia is your nation now don't you think of leaving us or else."
Sorry for the double post.
Russia is trying to replenish their demographics because ethnic Russians won't breed. This is a concept that has been loudly trumpeted by pro-Russian propagandists for many years, they aren't even trying to hide it. Naturally Russia being Russia, they decided to take the most retarded approach towards achieving this.

Also this war is coming up in its final phases. It won't be ongoing by the time we hit 2024. Russia won't admit "defeat" but they will essentially cease operations and shit out some excuse. Unfortunately, Ukraine will also have taken substantial damage from this invasion which will likely propel them right back into the late 90s/early 2000s.
 
Unfortunately there is never going to be fully accurate numbers from this war. But one can try to infer their own numbers to relative accuracy.

I unfortunately think a lot of people take the pro Russia line because the west has become so fake and gay by pushing an anti white neo Marxist agenda. So they take the enemy of my enemy is my friend line.
Believe it or not, but many Russians who are not over 40 do not believe the stories that Russian government aligned papers and news sources produce. Everyone know that they lie, and most of them are used as an indicator in which direction government wants to lead, nothing more.
But western news was also heavily discredited in the past few years, so you end up in the situation when you hardly can trust anything major publications produce if there is no outside hard evidence to back it up, like videos or something of this kind. And even that can be falsified.
So far I have to say the biggest winner of this war is the arms industry. This war reminds me of Korea where the Korean war took out like large swaths of US WW2 backstock they had left over. It got so bad the arms industry had to start rehiring in the 1950s and a wave of high income jobs were formed from people being hired at the arms industry.
Well, it always been this way. I am more afraid that Russian industry will get a feel for the blood money and Russia well become America 2.0 with endless proxy wars somewhere in Africa. I guess Syrian conflict is there, but it is pretty much resolved at this point.
 
Russia is trying to replenish their demographics because ethnic Russians won't breed. This is a concept that has been loudly trumpeted by pro-Russian propagandists for many years, they aren't even trying to hide it. Naturally Russia being Russia, they decided to take the most retarded approach towards achieving this.
That totally won't at all backfire and lead to a situation where different ethnic groups begin to fight it out and turn Russia into an Afghanistan 2.9
Also this war is coming up in its final phases. It won't be ongoing by the time we hit 2024. Russia won't admit "defeat" but they will essentially cease operations and shit out some excuse. Unfortunately, Ukraine will also have taken substantial damage from this invasion which will likely propel them right back into the late 90s/early 2000s.
If the war doesn't escalate with NATO or china I do think by 2024 you will see the war begin to wind down. As for Ukraines case despite it going back to the 1990s/early 2000s being part of Europe and European investment will make Ukraine the cheap cool country to go to again and I imagine with all the goodies uncle Sam is "giving them" more then likely they'll be forced to sign some Open trade agreement that basically says no tariffs and take a shitty American trade deal but there worse things in this world to happen then be financially raped by America especially if your leadership isn't completely kleptocratic. I imagine with Zelinsky being a puppet chances are the IMF can run the economy, the government gets it's kickbacks and the ultra nationalists seize political power.
Believe it or not, but many Russians who are not over 40 do not believe the stories that Russian government aligned papers and news sources produce. Everyone know that they lie, and most of them are used as an indicator in which direction government wants to lead, nothing more.
But western news was also heavily discredited in the past few years, so you end up in the situation when you hardly can trust anything major publications produce if there is no outside hard evidence to back it up, like videos or something of this kind. And even that can be falsified.
I would say this the western media is still in the process of losing it's credibility. The one saving grace for western media is if every outlet becomes a state spokesperson it turns out you can't sustain 30 firms. Also the large amounts of factionalism within western media does make it harder to initiate proper cover-ups.
Well, it always been this way. I am more afraid that Russian industry will get a feel for the blood money and Russia well become America 2.0 with endless proxy wars somewhere in Africa. I guess Syrian conflict is there, but it is pretty much resolved at this point.
The problem with that assessment is this. It's only viable to be an America 2.0 if you have the money, and resources for it. America is a natural blue water navy that basically took over from the British empire. It's vast resources and suited geography means any nation that can secure logistical access from sea to shining sea is destined to be an empire. I do think Alexander Dugins world theory has some validity in how spheres of the world think
Russia has serious logistical hurdles, one between Vladivostok and the Volga river there is really only one proper way across sibera. It's rail, you don't have even the proper population density to support a rail network.
Geography time hope you like to read agriculture maps.
Take a look at Russia's climate map. You don't have a lot of valuable crop land in Russia's interior. You have a summer climate akin to Western Nebraska so hot and dry and during the winter it's cold and dry so think Northern Alberta. By contrast Ukraine has some of the world's most arable land.
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Let's say the Russians go gangbusters spring/summer 2023 and somehow outperform all expectations. The sanctions will ensure at least for the next two decades at least Russia will be offline for the global western markets. If they secure Ukraine they not only would have the agricultural resources to become one of the world's largest food exporters but could starve out the European nations and force them to accept more humiliating deals with the US or join into Moscow's economic fold

This is assuming they destroy completely the Ukrainian army, NATO doesn't escalate the conflict further, there is no WW3. Russia after then could hold Europe hostage not merely alone with energy policy but also food policy too.

TL:biggrin:r were in a basic resource conflict, Russia wants to double the size of it's agricultural plant and Europe wants to keep its supply chains on the same continent run by white Europeans vs Africans.
 
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The A-10 is fucking incredible, basically a gun that had an aircraft built around it....but

Its optimal in an area where there is air supremacy which limited enemy AA capabilities, in such a contested air area that is Ukraine, the A-10 would be worthless. I mean, Russia has a huge airforce and they can only do limited excursions into Ukraine. Sending aircraft with good SEAD and air supremacy capabilities would be a much better option

Also, why tf did they split the threads? Seems pointless, there is no discussion anymore ( even if i think most pro-russians were retarded, atleast it was an exchange )
Boo on you Kiwifarms
It's a great aircraft but way out of date. Personally I think they need to completely scrap the F-35 and stay away from "multirole" aircraft in the future, then build a proper fighter, and a proper modernized CAS aircraft. I could go more into this, but this is a topic I would absolutely turn into a massive sperg fest.
 
I do think Bakhmut is going to fall in the next week or two. But I'm ready to some hilarious cope for the Pro-Russian side when they run into the defensive line that has been built up over the past half a year, while they've been stuck on Bakhmut. The whole Bakhmut issue is complicated with the fact hardcore Pro-Ukies are acting like Bakhmut doesn't matter which isn't true, but the Pro-Russians are acting like taking Bakhmut means that the Ukrainian army will instantly collapse and surrender, or at least be instantly pushed out of the entire Donbass region. One side is understating its importance, and the other is vastly overstating its importance. So really it's nothing special since we've seen this whole thing happen before, but because Bakhmut has held for months and months it's had a magnifying glass put over it.
Pretty much every pro-Ukrainian source has stated the Bakhmut WAS more important when Lyman and Izium were in Russian hands (i.e. opening up the possibility of a three-pronged assault on Sloviansk and Kramatorsk).

Otherwise the discussion is just "why Bakhmut" compared to any other target?
 
Don't know if that's good or bad.
I guess it depends on how the Ukrainians plan to use it. That's if they actually get them. Ukraine would need to be doing SEAD operations to give the A-10 a clear sky to fly in. I have heard the A-10 can fly pretty low. Maybe if they fly low enough they can avoid the Russian AA systems. It has flares and chaff so it can use that.
 
View attachment 4559997

Some new insane footage from around bakhmut from the Ukrainian POV. The soldier Allegedly shoots a bmp with an rpg and then kills some of the dismounts with his gun. Sorry it's lacking sound.


Wagnerites have been caught wearing Ukrainian camo numerous times in an illegal effort to confuse the Ukrainians or increase friendly fire. There was a video where the Ukrainians captured some of the Russians wearing Ukrainian camo and so they emptied a magazine into each of their heads after they properly identified them as Russian soldiers.

In general you will see wagner doing the things the Russian command wishes they could do (smashing people's heads with a sledgehammer and uploading it in a propaganda piece, wearing enemy uniforms, abusing prisoners even more routinely than the Russian army does, using their meat (soldiers) in an even more carefree way, etc.).

Wagner is basically also the main PR arm of the Russian army right now. domestically they have a large media presence including popular music and videos. internationally they put out ads in Africa, Serbia, and even on inforwars to get retards to go die in the Donbass. Prigozin is basically aslo filling a similar role in the media for Russia that Zelensky does for Ukraine, they both go to the front and film all sorts of videos to improve Troop morale and appear present, a key example is when he larped in that jet and challenged zelensky to a dogfight.

I think kadryov was the old main media man for the Russians but after the Chechens have taken very heavy attrition he doesn't talk too much anymore.




Here is the clip with sound and music.




Full combat video without music.

His Tiktok is _lost_generation.
 
This is a legal fiction created by Russia, since even Russian law does not allow for the existence of Wagner, yet clearly they do exist. They are just armed with weapons and supplies marked "expired" by Military officials. This fiction though is largely for domestic audiences then foreign ones. The plebes like to think Wagner is some sort of fighters guild in an RPG fighting on the side of righteousness, rather then just another arm of the Russian State. Internationally there really is no difference in viewing Wagner as a paramilitary arm of the Russian Government, much like US Army Spec Ops with no patches or insignia on a mission in an unspecified country.

They are answerable to Prigozhin, and Prighozin is clearly answerable to Putin, who is the commander-in-chief of the Russian Armed forces. There is a chain command that leads back to the organized Russian Military, even if that chain skips literally every soldier in uniform.
This is one of the interesting bits just waiting for legal disection; PMCs are forbidden by Russian law, but there are several operated by friends & lackies of the rich and powerful. This makes squaring off their legal status very tricky, because by russian law they aren't supposed to exist.

In general it makes more sense to have a policy in place that makes it easier for enemy soldiers to surrender rather then fight to the death. Surrendered enemies are just as good as dead enemies, but they are far easier to acquire. Provided of course they assume they are better off surrendering then fighting to the death. This is part of the reason the US Army was so successful in the Iraq War. Enemy units surrendered en masse because they knew we would not kill them if they did. Alternatively they knew if they didn't surrender they would die.

It was an easy choice for them to make, and it made it stupid easy for us to annihilate the Iraqi military in weeks.
A final stand to the last man is in no one's interest, it just means a forgone conclusion only results in more dead.

Living POWs are better than dead ones, because you can learn a lot more from living POWs. And you can trade them to get your own POWs back.

This is one of the reasons for resistance members to be classed as lawful combatants they must be organized. There needs to be a commander to negotiate with.

Talk about how Ukraine can use the Stryker


The Stryker is a platform that in default is an APC, and shouldn't be used as much more than an APC.

As an APC the Stryker is a solid "MEH." Its not bad, but its also not good. It is quick and it is manuverable and (if I'm remembering my vehicles right) good comfort for crew & transports. Its not a terrible vehicle, but got a bad rep because it was deployed in an environment and manner it should never have been used, and you also had shit like the MGS where they simply tried to cram too much gun onto it because they wanted to funnel maximum contract dosh to the biggest donor a single logistics chain.

Its got a very good crew survival rate, but that was in Iraq/Afganistan with 30 minute medevac. The vehicles, even with uparmoring, are barely resistant to heavy machine guns to say nothing of ATM or guns. But its highly upgradable and reconfigurable.

The biggest thing a Stryker brings is speed. Son bitch is fast with really good acceleration, and really good vision, so if you've got a skilled crew on their toes they can probably out juke any trouble that they can see.

My major concern, much with the Bradley, is that the Stryker will be deployed like they've been deploying BMPs.

I guess it depends on how the Ukrainians plan to use it. That's if they actually get them. Ukraine would need to be doing SEAD operations to give the A-10 a clear sky to fly in. I have heard the A-10 can fly pretty low. Maybe if they fly low enough they can avoid the Russian AA systems. It has flares and chaff so it can use that.

I'm pressing a very hard X to doubt they're getting A-10s.
All that has been said is the Airforce is open to transferring them. Which the fuckers in the Chairforce would love to transfer every single A-10 to Ukraine and let Russia smash them apart. The prissy fuckers in the Chairforce brass don't want to do CAS, but they refuse to allow any other branch to erode their fixed wing monopoly any more than it already has.

from what I'm reading, this is (so far) fake and gay, and based on that Ukraine pilots have been seen training with A-10 squadrons. This is likely because they are getting CAS/ground hugging training, not because they are getting A-10s.

The A-10 doesn't need a clear sky to fly in, and it can huge the trees, but is slow for a jet (this a comparative scale) so its going to have some issues against the Russian airforce. Even in Ukraine you could send them up and it'll come back, but it'll probably need to be practically rebuilt before it'll fly again given how rotten the area is with AA.

I'm just not sure what they'd use it for. The 30mm isn't very effective against modern tanks - you can maybe get a mission kill - but it'd waste BMPs and T-62s, and it carries bombs and ATG missiles which will take out modern armor.
 
@Ghostse
I'm pressing a very hard X to doubt they're getting A-10s.
All that has been said is the Airforce is open to transferring them. Which the fuckers in the Chairforce would love to transfer every single A-10 to Ukraine and let Russia smash them apart. The prissy fuckers in the Chairforce brass don't want to do CAS, but they refuse to allow any other branch to erode their fixed wing monopoly any more than it already has.

from what I'm reading, this is (so far) fake and gay, and based on that Ukraine pilots have been seen training with A-10 squadrons. This is likely because they are getting CAS/ground hugging training, not because they are getting A-10s.

The A-10 doesn't need a clear sky to fly in, and it can huge the trees, but is slow for a jet (this a comparative scale) so its going to have some issues against the Russian airforce. Even in Ukraine you could send them up and it'll come back, but it'll probably need to be practically rebuilt before it'll fly again given how rotten the area is with AA.

I'm just not sure what they'd use it for. The 30mm isn't very effective against modern tanks - you can maybe get a mission kill - but it'd waste BMPs and T-62s, and it carries bombs and ATG missiles which will take out modern armor.
The 30mm would work well against modern Russian tanks. It would work in the same way the Javelin does. It would hit the tops of the turrets where the armor is the weakest. That's what it did in the first gulf war. It could also hit the side armor. In modern tanks the weakest armor is on the top sides and rear. The strongest armor is in the front. The 30mm would be really effective. Even with its low flying it could probably hit the tops of the turrets.
 
@Ghostse

The 30mm would work well against modern Russian tanks. It would work in the same way the Javelin does. It would hit the tops of the turrets where the armor is the weakest. That's what it did in the first gulf war. It could also hit the side armor. In modern tanks the weakest armor is on the top sides and rear. The strongest armor is in the front. The 30mm would be really effective. Even with its low flying it could probably hit the tops of the turrets.

The problem with hitting tops of the turrets is you'd need to be coming in very steep - which gulf-war A-10s did, but they had lots of other jets running interference and air supremacy was achieved in about a week so they could get the altitude to do it.

In Ukraine, neither side has air superiority let alone supremacy. Ukraine doesn't have the airforce to screen a flight of A-10s for steep dives.

You also can't fully compare Gulf War to the current situation in Ukraine w/r/t armor. In the Gulf War, once the Allies got rolling there was no stopping, and it was over in a month. This meant that mobility kill, or often even a mission kill, was effectively a total kill. If that vehicle couldn't get recovered and serviced in a couple weeks, for the duration of that conflict it was a casualty. And Iraq was starved for parts for their T-72s and T-55s. Which is another thing to consider - Gulf war was against non- or lightly-upgraded 72s and a lot of T-55s; Russia hasn't gotten desperate enough to dust off any of their T-55s... but stay tuned at the rate things are going.

On the current battlefield, unless the russians are storing ammo in the turret - which seems to have stopped, probably due to General Borscht and Gutski's 10 minutes at the helm - rounds through the turret would at most be a mission kill. Even if you got a low-upgrade T-72 from the back for a mobility kill, it'd still be inside Russian controlled terrority and could be recovered.
Russian armor has also gotten significant upgrades with ERA; unless you are absolutely pounding the utter shit out of a T-72 with the GAU-8 to the point the turret ERA is completely exhausted, it'd need to be a pretty lucky shot to get through.
 
The problem with hitting tops of the turrets is you'd need to be coming in very steep - which gulf-war A-10s did, but they had lots of other jets running interference and air supremacy was achieved in about a week so they could get the altitude to do it.

In Ukraine, neither side has air superiority let alone supremacy. Ukraine doesn't have the airforce to screen a flight of A-10s for steep dives.

You also can't fully compare Gulf War to the current situation in Ukraine w/r/t armor. In the Gulf War, once the Allies got rolling there was no stopping, and it was over in a month. This meant that mobility kill, or often even a mission kill, was effectively a total kill. If that vehicle couldn't get recovered and serviced in a couple weeks, for the duration of that conflict it was a casualty. And Iraq was starved for parts for their T-72s and T-55s. Which is another thing to consider - Gulf war was against non- or lightly-upgraded 72s and a lot of T-55s; Russia hasn't gotten desperate enough to dust off any of their T-55s... but stay tuned at the rate things are going.

On the current battlefield, unless the russians are storing ammo in the turret - which seems to have stopped, probably due to General Borscht and Gutski's 10 minutes at the helm - rounds through the turret would at most be a mission kill. Even if you got a low-upgrade T-72 from the back for a mobility kill, it'd still be inside Russian controlled terrority and could be recovered.
Russian armor has also gotten significant upgrades with ERA; unless you are absolutely pounding the utter shit out of a T-72 with the GAU-8 to the point the turret ERA is completely exhausted, it'd need to be a pretty lucky shot to get through.
Ukrainians seem to be knocking out Russian tanks with ATGM's so the A-10's could be used for softer targets and maybe supporting ground forces.

They could attack T-72's from the side and use multiple A-10s on 1 tank. Once the ERA is used it's done. But that would kind of waste and time consuming. The Russians already have the T-62's out. I don't know if they have any T-55's left.
 
Ukrainians seem to be knocking out Russian tanks with ATGM's so the A-10's could be used for softer targets and maybe supporting ground forces.

They could attack T-72's from the side and use multiple A-10s on 1 tank. Once the ERA is used it's done. But that would kind of waste and time consuming. The Russians already have the T-62's out. I don't know if they have any T-55's left.

The issue with the A-10 for that is:
You don't need a 30mm to waste a BMP and soup any mounted dismounts, a 20mm will it just fine. You'd be better served with a faster platform that can get in and get out - while the A-10 goes zoom, at 420 mph its very subsonic, and while that's only a couple extra minutes of flight time over a faster jet, when you've got a lock warning those minutes are killer.

The thing the A-10 brought to the battlefield in Afghanistan (and iraq to a lesser degree; lower altitude meant Apaches (if on station) were better) was loiter time. Unlike a JDAM F-16 which was one-and-done, the A-10 could hang around for a long time, dropping out of the sky to Brrt and then vanishing again. Haji was never sure if it was really gone or just waiting for more more targets. And 420 mph was faster than any helo. The loiter time doesn't matter in Ukraine currently - when flying for Ukraine you want to be in the air as short as possible.

While I don't buy the gay GenDyn "F-35 Is JuSt As GoOd At CaS!" propacope for a minute, ukraine is not currently an environment where the A-10 can fulfill its intended role.
 
FSB mole in German intelligence-service paid to provide location data for HIMARS & IRIS-T.
A BND employee is suspected of having passed on secrets to Russia. According to SPIEGEL information, he was probably paid royally – a six-figure sum of cash was apparently found on him.
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The case of a suspected spy at the Federal Intelligence Service ( BND ) is more explosive than previously known. According to SPIEGEL information , the Russian secret service FSB tried last fall to use BND employee Carsten L., who has since been arrested, to obtain position data on the Ukrainian army's artillery and air defense positions.
According to the investigation, the FSB instructed the BND agent, through the intermediary Arthur E. , to siphon off and hand over GPS data that was as accurate as possible to the BND from the Himar multiple rocket launchers supplied by the USA and the Iris-T air defense system supplied by Berlin. People familiar with the case say it's unlikely such data was actually shared.

The presumed order reflects the situation at the front. In the fall, the Ukrainian army had managed to gain spectacular ground - also thanks to the rocket launchers from the United States.
Attorney General Peter Frank is investigating Carsten L. and Arthur E. on suspicion of treason. Both are in custody.
L. was arrested shortly before Christmas after a Western intelligence service alerted the BND to a possible leak in the fall. He was known among colleagues for his radical right-wing views. These are said to have become known during a security check at the BND. However, the topic was not pursued. He was even promoted recently.

BND wants to check security precautions​

After years of working in the "Technical Intelligence" department at the BND, he was ultimately responsible for the security checks of his colleagues. Because Carsten L. apparently found it easy to smuggle the information out of the BND for Russia, the German foreign intelligence service now wants to review its security precautions.
His alleged accomplice Arthur E. was arrested in January at Munich Airport when entering the United States. The German businessman with Russian roots is said to have already revealed himself to FBI officials in the United States and is also said to be cooperating with investigators in Germany. He allegedly met BND employee Carsten L. at a party in his hometown of Weilheim in Upper Bavaria.

Related: Mole was previously cleared & deemed reliable during internal investigation:
.... the secret service inspectors in the Chancellery and in Parliament are now also interested in the details of Carsten L.'s investigation. Because the check is said to have revealed clear indications of the BND man's right-wing attitude and his negative attitude towards the political system.
At least one person interviewed is said to have reported that L. was drifting to the right. In his circle of acquaintances he made no secret of his contempt for politicians like Annalena Baerbock from the Greens.

However, the explosive assessments of the respondents had no consequences. The indications of a twist to the right were not followed up any further. In the end, the BND declared its employee L. reliable in 2022. This gave the suspected spy continued access to documents up to the "top secret" classification.
According to investigators, Carsten L. photographed at least part of the secret information for Russia with a mobile phone from the screens at the BND, later printed it out and gave it to the Russian domestic secret service FSB via the businessman and ex-soldier Arthur E.
According to SPIEGEL research, the conspiratorial network surrounding the suspected BND mole was apparently even larger. A wealthy Moscow business partner of Arthur E., who is said to have mediated E.'s contacts with the FSB, is said to play a key role. The entrepreneur, who is in a relationship with one of the richest women in Russia, is said to have financed the trips to Moscow, during which Arthur E. probably handed over the BND documents.
 
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This is a legal fiction created by Russia, since even Russian law does not allow for the existence of Wagner, yet clearly they do exist.
Yes and no. Pigghozin cleary isn't friendly towards ruzzkie ministry of defence, they have own supply chains (poor and shitty, but have), only connections to ruzzkie gov. are recruiting prisioners and president's parole for members.

But the important thing about being a militia branch of army is to cooperate with army and at least take orders from it. And PMC isn't cooperating in such way with army, according to statements of ruzzian MoD.

There is a chain command that leads back to the organized Russian Military, even if that chain skips literally every soldier in uniform.
That point is talking more about 'leaders in field' than 'somewhere in the world is a guy who decided you are here' - to be a VCorps or militia they must have any guy who can talk to them in field 'do that' or 'don't do that' and has right to discipline them. As far as I know wagnetards have flat hierarchic.
Bald P would not dare do shit unless Putin let him.
In practice yes, but can it be proved? Putin will confirm that or just say in the end 'I just don't read parols, this is a ceremony and who is parolled is decided in some legal procedure by judges/my subordinates/someone else. I just must to sign it if certain circumstances appers'? We don't know. It is some reason why PMC Wagner is used in Ukraine and why they aren't part of army.

Nah, this would apply more to the traitor Ukrainians in the DPR and LPR armies.
Yes and no. This would apply to everyone who decides to fight in war but didn't have time to enlist to army do to time.

Militas from peoples republic most go into point 3) - rulers of peoples republics claim their are type of gov., but Ukraine didn't recognize them. This point is for any revolters/freedom fighters/insurgents of unrecognized states/states that aren't recognized and so one.

But this will ot help them when they will be facing criminal law.

So this person will be treated like everyone else staying in a given territory in a similar situation. And unfortunately, some European countries allow killing someone caught committing a crime - one of the big problems in relations between the EU and Poland was the change in the Polish Penal Code, which in practice decriminalized killing someone caught while committing a crime. As far as I understood the analysis of the problem, Poles changed their penal code in such a way that if:

a) we caught someone doing something illegal and it was a serious offence,
b) we are not a police officer or in police-like services,
c) we were strongly indignant at the act committed by the caught person,

then if we kill or mutilate him, even after capturing and binding him, we will not be convicted. The scandal lasted a short while, because as it turned out, laws with a similar effect (i.e. we killed someone who committed a serious crime but at the time of killing him was not a threat or did not resist) exist in several EU countries and no one gives a fuck about it.

Human rights issues are a separate, gigantic topic. In principle, according to them, the state or its officials cannot kill someone without a reason (and on regional level sometimes death penalty is banned - e.g. in most european countries ban for capital penalty is required due to international acts on european level, called in some cases 'european law' that is a separete level of law between country/local law and international law), but in principle this does not mean that states have to introduce any specific criminal provisions in the scope when an ordinary man kills another ordinary man. In principle, the point is so obvious that there has never been a need for a treaty to punish murderers, but here we are entering a world of legal magic, and not every killing of a human being by a common man is murder (just as not all forced sexual intercourse will be rape in some countries). As far as I know, the US basically has a simpler naming scheme for crimes, but in Europe it's a bit different and there are inventions such as "fatal beating" - a situation where, yes, we killed someone, but we just wanted to beat him up. The sentence will be as long as for the murder, the trial will be similar, but no one makes a fuss because this particular act in a particular country is not called murder.

====

But all above doesn't mean that every human must either be capable of becoming a PoW or be a mercenary. There is no law that says 'anyone who is not a mercenary can be a POW' or 'anyone who is not part of a group that can be a POW is a mercenary'.

A separate issue is whether PMCs should be considered in the context of international law at all. In my opinion, there is no need - Geneva III describes who MUST be treated as a prisoner of war, the additional protocol who MUST NOT be treated as such. We don't consider tourists in a combat zone in this context, so why should we consider PMC members?

PMCs are forbidden by Russian law, but there are several operated by friends & lackies of the rich and powerful.
But what this means?

Prostitution is illegal in many countries. But in some this means that a prostitute will go to jail, in some others only means that she cannot legalize money from this work. And in some others this only means she cannot pay social contribution and will not have state pension based on this activity.

So, Big Bald P should go to jail according to ruzzian law or just cannot sign his guys for pension insurance? I don't know anything of ruzzian law about tha
 
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  • Thunk-Provoking
Reactions: DumbDude43
Strikers are basically APCs meet IFVs in this war it's going to be quite useful as an auto cannon is quite effective at destroying enemies inside a building. People also forget that during the early days of the the war the two most targeted vehicles on Russian side were one it's trucks and two were it's APCs/IFVs So during the early days of the war Russian BMPs, BTRs and trucks were destroyed in massive numbers. For Ukraine the striker would be effective in the fact they're great battle taxi's you can get your wounded out quickly, fire on the go,flee the scene before the enemy can overrun and overwhelm you.

The best estimate I am able to do is sadly trust open source intelligence.
there is one point I think that can be taken.
Both sides have realistically taken very heavy casualties. We have heard from Russian insiders that the fighting in cities like Mariupol and other places would make Grozny seem like a picnic.
In this war I would error in favor on the side of Ukraine but I wouldn't flat out ignore Russian intelligence either.
From the "Norwegian minister of defense" pro NATO but not the US has said the number of Ukrainian casualties is over 100,000 over 30,000 civilians, and almost 180,000 in Russian casualties. *Edit I know these are wikipedia numbers but there are multiple sources so one has to basically infer the truth is probably somewhere more likely in the middle between Russian numbers and Ukraine/US numbers. To put this into perspective there hasn't been a war this deadly to Russia since WW2. Even in Afghanistan in a ten year process they lost around 30,000 soldier's the numbers here are at least double that (I know I'm assuming but it's a safer assumption.)
Russia's forces committed and losses already overshadow both Chechen wars combined, but they still refuse to call it a war. The whole muh special operation cope is pathetic, but at least useful to sensible Russians who doesn't want any part of it, makes full mobilization less likely for the time being. Their hubris keeps paying dividends.
Ghostse said:
This is one of the interesting bits just waiting for legal disection; PMCs are forbidden by Russian law, but there are several operated by friends & lackies of the rich and powerful. This makes squaring off their legal status very tricky, because by russian law they aren't supposed to exist.
To put it in simple terms, application of the law is class-based. If you're Putin's friend, or like with Prigozhin also a proxy, no law would stand in your way. There's literally no mechanism that could interfere, no checks and balances to speak of.
Ghostse said:
Living POWs are better than dead ones, because you can learn a lot more from living POWs. And you can trade them to get your own POWs back.
I've seen Ukrainians often refer to POWs as "exchange fund assets". Both sides realize the value of capturing combatants.
 
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