@CuzinEd
Zeihan said with the US claiming Russia has committed war crimes there is no longer a diplomatic solution to the war at any level. Russia and Ukraine will have to fight it out. There isn't much of a chance Western companies will do business with Russia again any time soon. The Chinese are making noise that they might start helping Russia in some way. I don't think Zeihan means militarily. China could see sanctions put on them as well. I think China should have had some sanctions placed on them for the way they handled Covid. But it will be interesting to see what happens.
I have to put on welding glasses every time I watch his videos, the glow is so goddamn bright. Another major red flag is Zeihan's takes on nuclear energy and renewables. Even Wikipedia-tier "research" can deboonk his talking points on these subjects. So, either he swallowed mainstream narrative without analyzing it first or he pushes mainstream narrative to others.
His take on war crimes and companies leaving is also childishly naive. Those who left, left in Feb-Mar last year or left later due to sanctions or logistical/operational difficulties, not HECKIN' WARCRIMERINOOS. People are getting more desensitized, generating public outrage is getting progressively harder, plus remaining companies are less likely to fold to it.
To add cherry on top, Schlumberger is still here, their training and R&D facilities are still here, operated through a shell company. I wonder how many smaller and less known companies (esp. those not dealing with sanctioned goods and entities) bit the bullet, stayed and grabbed their competitors' market share. "Buy when the streets are covered in blood"
And it's one thing to sanction 2% of world economy (Russia), sanctioning 18% (China) would be another story. US can't even sanction Chinese fentanyl imports, Chinese spying phone apps and Chinese bribes for American universities (who, coincidentally, start dishing out chink propaganda to your future ruling class).
China won't join start because their longest range missiles are classed as Medium Range missiles, the most heavily controlled because of the possibility for false launch detections. (In short: ICBMs are long range with high trajectories and flight times that mean you don't need to mash the "RETALIATE" button the minute you think they are in the air. You've got at least 30 minutes for validation before you need to launch your retaliation. Short-range missiles you DO need mash the retaliate button as soon as they're in the air, but they have to be deployed near where they're going to hit - that shoud be close enough to for observers to visibly confirm launch.
But Intermediate range missiles have the ability to be placed far enough away from your borders they can't been spotted, and short enough flight times that any counter strike needs to be launched nearly immediately)
Are SRBMs and IRBMs even regulated by START? As far as I remember, there was a separate treaty, denounced by Trump admin. Anyway, China's hundreds of
presumably fake missile silos and vast network of underground tunnels for transporting/storing their missiles and bombers are fundamentally incompatible with the START.
They may be building their own ICBMs right now (judging by their space program, technological capability is there) or have already built some and keep them hidden. Their strategic missile forces are super secretive, even when compared to other branches of PLA. US intelligence outlets admit they don't know how many IRBMs and warheads China has. Then, add a massive buildup of nuclear power plants to this.
US second-strike is incredibly powerful. just the SSBNs would be able to destroy Russia and China as countries, and that's forgetting not only are US silos designed to survive hits, Russian targeting is utter fucking garbage.
US have chosen first disarming strike as their doctrine in the 80s, China tries to counter that, first and foremost.
