Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[DumbDude43]

Russia's ability to take Europe was arguable during the Cold War when they had the rest of the Pact to pad out their numbers, and the Red army was already squatting in East Germany. These days without either of those, and with what we've seen of their performance in Ukraine it's no longer arguable, Russia simply does not have what it takes to conquer Europe in a conventional war.

the main front line in europe was also much shorter in the cold war era.
pic related, the front lines then (red) vs now (blue) after a hypothetical russian victory in ukraine.

(this ignores the potential additional fronts in the balkans and in the caucasus because those were not the main focus of either sides military deployment)

 

[Snekposter]

In war there is never enough weapons, vehicles, ammunition, fuel, food and so on. Zelensky and Ukraine are doing the same thing England had done in WWII with Lend-Lease.

During WW2 Stalin was constantly pounding the table at talks, demanding strategic bombers be Lend-Leased to him. Thank God the US and UK told him to pound sand.

I really like Tuvans. I can be sperging about history of Tuva and quasi-state Tannu Tuva for days.

If you ever see on KF a thread about Tuva/Tannu Tuva it will be mine. And don't ho them if you didn't want to see heavy sperging. Lets say, if someone call me a Tuva-sperg that means that this person will call CWC a little interested in vidya

MAKE TANNU TUVA GREAT AGAIN!
Yes, its a meme mod, yes its horribly broken, but damn is it fun.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Oh No, Zisters, are you okay?




This is pretty big if true. A Ukrainian Armored spear head might actually be on the cusp of isolating two entire regiments worth of Wagner who are now hyper extended beyond the Russian frontline.

 

[Fait Accompli]

Oh No, Zisters, are you okay?

View attachment 4639726

Saw this too, i've not seen it confirmed but it seemed like it came from polish mil-bloggers. As there is sooo much misinformation about the front around Bakhmut, i remain doubtful

Dont get me wrong, id love for it to be true. But lets just wait and await more confirmation before taking it as fact. It would be a logical move if they could achieve it

 

[mindlessobserver]

Saw this too, i've not seen it confirmed but it seemed like it came from polish mil-bloggers. As there is sooo much misinformation about the front around Bakhmut, i remain doubtful

Dont get me wrong, id love for it to be true. But lets just wait and await more confirmation before taking it as fact. It would be a logical move if they could achieve it

It would make sense. The M-3 Highway is literally right there. Its a perfect line of advance for a Tank Charge. Of course, this being the obvious move would mean Russia would have had to account for the possibility before racing out into the sunflower fields beyond it, right? RIGHT?

 

[GoPro]

So, personal highlights a year in? Here's my list
>Drone blowjob video
>Snake Island insanity
>Moskva sinking followed by the insane amounts of coping
>Kharkiv Counteroffensive
>Ukrainian COD zoomer icing entire Russian squad with help of his trench goblin friend and his cave of wonders
>A fucking strategically pointless position becoming the biggest meatgrinder of Russian troops since the Rzhev salient without the excuse of being able to actually encircle any substantial formation like there was there
>TWO FUCKING Ka-52 KILLED BY ATGMS
>Vuhldar offensive
>The Pontooning

What's yours?

In addition to all you mentioned, Russia-simps' double speak, cope, hypocrisy, and seething are all very entertaining. Especially their overnight 180 degree shifts to be in line with Russian propaganda's claims earlier in the conflict. Other than that:
>Russians digging trenches in Chernobyl's red forest.
>Miles long Russian convoy to Kiev that got stuck.
>Soviet flag babushka who has posted all over Russian media and telegram only to be memory holed after she said that she does not oppose Ukrainian authorities.
>Russia claiming several times to have destroyed more enemy aircraft than Ukraine ever had.
>Russian claims that they destroyed more HIMARs than were promised before the equipment even entered Ukraine. As a proof they showed aerial photos of some rooftop and vatniks ate it up until HIMARs started to blow things up and forced Russians to pull back.
>Russian pilots crashing their MIGS into each other and into commie-blocks in Russia.
>Putin personally promising that there will be no mobilization only to call for it few months later.
>Russian Mobiks and related shenanigans. Everything from rusted rifles to being told to buy tampons so they have something to plug their bullet wounds with.
>Westen propaganda turning out to have more in common with reality than the Russian one.
>Russia-simps, many who claim to be against globohomo and leftists, running a defense for soviet union and repeating anti-imperialist marxist talking points while crying about the plight of muslim refugees on Belarussian borders with EU.

Atomic Heart is funny. It's set in a fictional world where the USSR has somehow overtaken everyone in technology, giving them all the wealth and influence they could possibly want.

A bunch of oligarchs manage to fuck everything up regardless. Therefore I think the plot of the game is very Russian.

Wait, wasn't Atomic Heart supposed to be a parody of Russian exceptionalism, glorification of Soviet Union, and all what-ifs? That's the impression I got from everything I saw about the game. Basically a Bioshock style game that leans more on the pastiche angle to the point it becomes a comedic mockery of the glorious Russia that could have been.

Wasn't early 90s post-USSR Russia pretty much just like that? And this is the result.

No. Russia was given similar aid other ex-Warsaw pact countries received. Wild 90s were the result of ex-KGB, ex-commies, oligarchs, and mafia battling over the resources and western investments. They siphoned most resources possible into their own pockets while an average Russian never saw any tangible returns. Then people who spent the 90s amassing wealth and power started to direct blame for everything that went wrong towards the west. At the same time, it is conveniently ignored that Putin played along with the west until Russian gas and oil fields were fixed up and modernized by western companies, Russian elites ruling the country park, store, and spend their wealth in the west, and their children and families often live, work, and go to schools in the west too. It is also ignored that several other countries implemented the shock therapy successfully and quality of life there is catching up to that of the west. And they did it without natural resources to prop their economy.

Contrary to vatnik propaganda, not every allied capital from London to Tokyo is taking orders from Washington. These are independent countries that quite often don't do what Americans want. Go ask a few citizens of Germany and Japan whether they wish someone would violently kill them so they don't have to continue to live as they do in "perpetual servitude"; somehow I don't think you'll get any takers.

In fact, American allies enjoy more autonomy than Russian ones. Want to enter the European fossil fuels market like Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries tried several times? Can't, Russia will block you so it has no new competition as EU's fossil fuel supplier. Want to make your own trade deals with the west? Can't, Russia will try to install their puppets in your government to stop that and invade if that fails. Being a smaller country allied to Russia and next to it puts you on a track to become another Belarus. Meanwhile, the U.S. begrudgingly let Germans buy gas from Russia for 50 years, EU nations to maintain relations with places like Iran and Cuba, or collaborate with China on infrastructure projects and trade deals with seemingly zero American involvement in vetting these deals. Even at the peak of the Cold War Americans let NATO members and allies trade and maintain relations with Warsaw Pact nations.

the main front line in europe was also much shorter in the cold war era.
pic related, the front lines then (red) vs now (blue) after a hypothetical russian victory in ukraine.
View attachment 4638853
(this ignores the potential additional fronts in the balkans and in the caucasus because those were not the main focus of either sides military deployment)

Black sea would also be a hotspot in case of a conflict with NATO. Russians would have to deal with Turkish navy over there. Armenia and Georgia could become a problem too as they are close with Turkey and NATO.

 

[PS1gamenwatch]

Gooooood luck

Early in April, French President Emmanuel Macron will travel to China in an effort to persuade Beijing to put pressure on Russia to halt the conflict in Ukraine.

 

[Vince McMahon]

Gooooood luck

At least he's stopped talking to the bunker grandpa.

 

[Ghostse]

The whole concept of Russia is of an all-consuming imperial blob.

Man. There are no other option for ruzzkie to retrive than full collaps. Germoney is Germoney - a pretty nice state with cash and techno music - because they was totally fucked op to the ground in 1944-45. After carnage of last month of WW2 they just get that they should not start a war.

It is same case with ruzzia - if we had hope to have in future (lets say - 30-40 years after war) they need to get fucked hard. Yes, it will be a tragedy for most of them. Yes, many of them will suffer. Yes, not all of them are bad. Yes, most of victims will be innocent.

But the source of it is still at the top, so that's what has to be knocked out.

I don't want to spend to much time on this, so I'm going to type, minimal edit, and trim down a very complex topic but

Japan, and German to a lesser degree, economic and social pheonixing was, yes, partly some reforms shoved down their respective throats, but the majority was a dismantling or coopting of the primary economic drivers in the countries.

Germany just straight up saw the big corporations having to answer to outside authority. In Japan especially, the break up of the Zaibatsu - Family-controlled industrial conglomates, basically Japanese Oligarchs - was key to reforming the country and the politics.

Russia won't reform unless the Oligarchy (and in the same vein, mafia control) is completely and totally dismantled. Until people see there's an option for rule of law that isn't just a strongman enacting Mafia justice and keeping your being exploited to minimal levels, there is no hope of any different outcomes.

The everday modern ruskie has always blindly submitted to whatever authority in power, they've never had any real power to change their society and they've been shafted for generations by the people on top, Russia has every condition necessary to be the richest country in the world with one of, if not the highest standard of living, yet you still have villages sharing a communal well, all this while bending over and asking to be shafted some more. If you want to witness a cucked slave mentality you needn't look further. There is a reason Russians hit the drink so hard, it's hopelessness, Russia might not have to deal with LGBTAHISDK+ parades but they have plenty of depravity to spare.

i'm well aware that russia is a shithole in many ways. some call it "nigeria but with snow" for a reason.
but that is besides the point. people have an innate desire for independence, for self-determination, for freedom from foreign rule. this pride is unrelated to how rich or poor they are, and it is very much alive in russia.
when hostile foreign forces are floating ideas such as "dude just versailles them haha" and "bro we should potsdam them lmao" it has a very strong galvanizing effect and acts as a massive boost for their willingness to rally behind their leadership in resistance against these foreign enemies.

Russia got rolled by the Mongols in the 1300s, just completely stomped. And instead of learning any sort of unity, all they learned was how to rule like Mongols, such they eventually overthrew them but then just kept the government only the head was Rus instead of Mongoloid.

During the reign of Ivan the Terrible, Ivan was having Boyars (russian landed nobility) and their families executed and the Boyars kept granting him power because they couldn't conceive of a Russia without strong leadership.

There's also the issue that for all the "Lol Burgermutts" Russia a bunch of ethnicities.

Then of course there's important questions like how does a supply system that is failing to maintain 100mile long supply lines, on it's own borders, against a handful of HIMARS hope to maintain thousand mile long supply lines, through what would be hostile territory, against opponents who have real time satellite intel and cruise missiles?
[...]
Russia simply does not have what it takes to conquer Europe in a conventional war.

The issue is the bolded part. The conventional war. I wouldn't even last until the first bell stopped ringing if I was put in the ring against Tyson, but I can win if he's tied to a chair and unable to hit me back, and I'm allowed to kick him to boot.

Putin knows Europe lacks the political will to actually hit Russia back in any meaningful way, but he can continue to pick on smaller powers and use the KGB FSB to sow divsion and leverage power struggles. And that's before he got Europe hopeless dependent on Russian hydrocarbons.

Just look at how Crimea went down for how Russia envisions their control of Europe. The idea is supply lines don't matter if most of your forces are insurgents in the country you're attacking. You don't even need to invade or control territory to keep a neighbor off balance.

Dont get me wrong, id love for it to be true. But lets just wait and await more confirmation before taking it as fact. It would be a logical move if they could achieve it

This is the way.
It'd be great if true, but I'd want to see more than Polish sources. I'd also question how much (And what quality) of Wagner is getting encircle.

OTOH I was calling Yookniks for trumpeting the Kharkiv on being overly optimistic, and that even if true Ukraine needed to hold those gains, only for the early reports to vastly underestimate how bad Z-force got rolled.

I'll also admit: I want it to be true. After all the "Kherson is a Russian trap" vatnik cope posting, it'd just be hilarious to watch the cope when an actual trap is executed.

View attachment 4638016

https://www.arabnews.com/node/2258386/saudi-arabia

https://archive.ph/ozQMq

The Cossack fears the Camel Jockey.

 

[No bullying allowed]

Gooooood luck

Macron means well but his optimistic view that everything can be solved via diplomacy is very tiring.

 

[DumbDude43]

Macron means well but his optimistic view that everything can be solved via diplomacy is very tiring.

thats basically all euro politicians.
they've lived all their lives in a state of absolute and unquestionable safety and security due to being under NATO protection, while at the same time deluding themselves into believing that this security is not actually the result of being protected by the strongest military on the planet, but is purely created by enlightened and progressive european politicians through masterful diplomacy focused on peace. it's most pronounced in german politicians, but also in others that are part of the western EU bubble, like macron here.

 

[mindlessobserver]

thats basically all euro politicians.
they've lived all their lives in a state of absolute and unquestionable safety and security due to being under NATO protection, while at the same time deluding themselves into believing that this security is not actually the result of being protected by the strongest military on the planet, but is purely created by enlightened and progressive european politicians through masterful diplomacy focused on peace. it's most pronounced in german politicians, but also in others that are part of the western EU bubble, like macron here.

It has been amusing seeing all the neo liberals from Kissinger to Macron trying to figure out a way to end this war diplomatically, even though both Kiev and Moscow have been adamant the only terms they will accept is victory. Peaceful Diplomacy has its place, before a war, and at the end of a war. During war however, Diplomacy really has limited power. The absolute worst case scenario has already happened and now comes the time to see where the dice of fate land.

States tend to want to avoid wars because they are unpredictable and could easily lead to far more onerous outcomes then intended. Something Russia is finding out here, where their slam dunk march into Kiev has become the most catastrophic calamity for them since the Second World War. The fact that its at the hands of third rate power just doubles the humiliation. But that is what happens when you go to war. You roll the dice, and sometimes you roll 1.

Setting aside why Russia should negotiate, a better question at this juncture is why should Ukraine? In the first year of the war they successfully repulsed two Army Groups that had assaulted their capital. They pushed another away from their second city of Kharkiv, while also liberating Kherson, the only regional capital Russia had managed to seize in the opening of the war. Since then its been a bloody stalemate on the Donbass Front, where the border has barely moved for almost a year.

If I was Ukraine, I would be feeling pretty confident right now. Especially with hundreds of Main Battle Tanks being rolled into service and the Russian Army proving largely incapable of making significant progress in any direction. The Second Year of War will be where the dice gets another roll. Maybe Russia can regain the initiative. Maybe Ukraine will press the advantage. We won't know until it happens. Until then, Diplomacy is useless.

I expect earnest peace talks wont begin until at least the third year of the war. If then.

 

[Techpriest Mk II]

Oh No, Zisters, are you okay?

View attachment 4639726
View attachment 4639897

This is pretty big if true. A Ukrainian Armored spear head might actually be on the cusp of isolating two entire regiments worth of Wagner who are now hyper extended beyond the Russian frontline.

Sounds unlikely, but if true, lol, lmao.

 

[No bullying allowed]

thats basically all euro politicians.
they've lived all their lives in a state of absolute and unquestionable safety and security due to being under NATO protection, while at the same time deluding themselves into believing that this security is not actually the result of being protected by the strongest military on the planet, but is purely created by enlightened and progressive european politicians through masterful diplomacy focused on peace. it's most pronounced in german politicians, but also in others that are part of the western EU bubble, like macron here.

NATO has protected Europe from outside threats, that is true, but realistically no country outside of Europe has had any interest or seen any benefit to actually invading Europe, there are no resources to be had that neighbouring regions don't already have more of, the only potential wars have been wars of ideology, and the main threat after the second world war was the Soviet Union. Peace inside of Europe can arguably be credited to the work by the EU, it has simply become too expensive to fight a war with your fellow Europeans since they're all intertwined and codependent, even countries in Europe, outside of the EU, have trade agreements and pacts with the EU bloc. This was all achieved with "progressive" and "enlightened" poltiics and diplomacy, the mistake was trying to apply the same concept to Russia after the Soviet union dissolved. European powers thought they could bring Russia into the fold by increasing trade and cooperation, but Russia being Russia had no interest in this unless they could be the top dog in this new relation, they played along for a while and when they thought Europe was sufficiently dependent on their cheap oil and gas they thought they could use it to do whatever they wanted, Georgia and Crimea both worked out for them and had no real repercussions but they overplayed their hand with the full invasion, betting on the fact that Europe would be pressured into just accepting the state of things and they could get away with it as well.

The European naivety that Russia could be tamed through mutual trade and cooperation, while it was simultaneously clear it was turning into an authoritarian shithole, mixed with the allure of cheap oil and gas has led to this situation. The further east you move in Europe the more pragmatic the view on Russia becomes.

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

the main front line in europe was also much shorter in the cold war era.
pic related, the front lines then (red) vs now (blue) after a hypothetical russian victory in ukraine.
View attachment 4638853
(this ignores the potential additional fronts in the balkans and in the caucasus because those were not the main focus of either sides military deployment)

It was even shorter in WP days: Austria was strictly neutral in that days. In 2023 they still not in NATO, and they joined EU in 1995.

Yugo also was supposed to stay out of WP-
NATO war. They never was part of WP, and after 1948 (Tito-Stalin breakup) Yugo was a bizzare abomination: communist country with large West (mostly: USA) help and even some investments. Before 1953 some smaller clashes occured on borders (veeery small) and bloody massacre of stalinists supportrs in Yugo.

And the numbers was so fucking different... USSR in last days have near 300 million citizens and other members of WP have further 100 millions citizens. Compare to todays 145 million ruzzkies...

 

[mindlessobserver]

It was even shorter in WP days: Austria was strictly neutral in that days. In 2023 they still not in NATO, and they joined EU in 1995.

Yugo also was supposed to stay out of WP-
NATO war. They never was part of WP, and after 1948 (Tito-Stalin breakup) Yugo was a bizzare abomination: communist country with large West (mostly: USA) help and even some investments. Before 1953 some smaller clashes occured on borders (veeery small) and bloody massacre of stalinists supportrs in Yugo.

And the numbers was so fucking different... USSR in last days have near 300 million citizens and other members of WP have further 100 millions citizens. Compare to todays 145 million ruzzkies...

It's also a ludicrous form of thinking that implies the US and the EU actually have any desire to physically invade Russia. Which they don't. Not unless Russia attacks the US and the EU first. Which it keeps threatening to do.

 

[Snekposter]

It's also a ludicrous form of thinking that implies the US and the EU actually have any desire to physically invade Russia. Which they don't. Not unless Russia attacks the US and the EU first. Which it keeps threatening to do.

Why would the West invade Russia? Its a frozen shithole that devours entire armies from what a barren craphole of worthlessness so much of it is. The only people with serious ambitions of conquering the entire place were the Germans, and they've switched to the Euro instead of bullets as their weapon of choice for takeovers. If you want its natural resources its far easier to just pay whoever is running the show over there a relative pittance and he'll lash his subjects to the bone to get them out of the ground for you.

 

[Smity Werbenjagermanjensen]

During WW2 Stalin was constantly pounding the table at talks, demanding strategic bombers be Lend-Leased to him. Thank God the US and UK told him to pound sand.

Considering the only heavy bombers the USSR had was the Pe-8, which had less than 100 built, and the TB-3 of which there were many made but has more in common with WW1 bomber than a WW2 bomber, I don't blame Stalin.

Used a War Thunder image because I couldn't quickly find a good image that shows the pilot and gunners are just sitting on the outside and there's no bomb bay so any bombs create drag instead of just adding weight, also the landing gear is fixed in place.

 

[Snekposter]

Considering the only heavy bombers the USSR had was the Pe-8, which had less than 100 built, and the TB-3 of which there were many made but has more in common with WW1 bomber than a WW2 bomber, I don't blame Stalin.
View attachment 4642609
Used a War Thunder image because I couldn't quickly find a good image that shows the pilot and gunners are just sitting on the outside and there's no bomb bay so any bombs create drag instead of just adding weight, also the landing gear is fixed in place.

They had 18 years after Igor Sikorsky's revolutionary Ilya Muromets entered service to come up with an adequate replacement, and that is the best the USSR could accomplish in that time...

As to the Pe-8, probably wasn't a good idea to arrest Tupolev and Petlyakov on vague, trumped-up charges, but alas, wouldn't be Russia without paranoid leadership.

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

the TB-3

They was still developing that shit in 1952.

Google 'G-52 plane', yes, they REALLY installed tank guns on it.