Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[DumbDude43]

Dude they nerve gassed England. We were in a proxy-war with them over Syria. They used to send nuclear bomber wings into Sweden and then call them back last-second to psyche people out. They've been the enemy a long, long time.

burgers and anglos saw it that way but most euros genuinely didn't. the russian "imperialist nato is encroaching on poor innocent russia" narrative worked very well with a lot of euro politicians, as lots of them are leftists whose anti american sentiment easily overpowers any concerns about russia.
the russian (and former soviet) playbook of "but what about america!" deflection tactics has generally been very effective at keeping most of europe from taking a genuine anti russia position.

 

[Absolutego]

exact same thing was said about this winter, but nothing beyond a price spike actually happened. no supply shortages, no rationing, no crisis. and for the next winter they have even more time to prepare.
russia does not have a monopoly on hydrocarbons, it never did, it was merely the most convenient option. cutting them out is not an impossibility, merely an inconvenience.

It was an unusually warm winter in Europe this year. Enough that basically jack got accomplished in terms of military initiatives in Ukraine b/c the ground never froze. The lack of shortages is more a case of being bailed out by the climate than Europe properly planning for it. There's a reason things were so doom-and-gloom last August.
I'm sure European nations will try to establish better energy pipelines after this close call, but I'm not certain it'll necessarily pan out.

 

[Fait Accompli]

I agree that Bakhmut is likely to fall soon, though I disagree it will lead to any rapid break-through.

1) the longer Russia takes to capture Bakhmut, the worse it gets for them, and

Exactly my thought, they've been slogging around in the Bakhmut area for MONTHS. And when Soledar fell, there wasnt any breakthrough to speak of. It just doesnt seem like the Russians are capable of effective breakthroughs in this stage of the war, atleast not large scale ones with speed. I havent seen them do any breakthrough for atleast 6-8 months, right me if im wrong

And as its been months without any breakthrough, the Ukrainans have had more than enough time to fortify the approaches to Kramatorsk and definetly Kramatorsk itself, which is on heights
If the front rolled back to the approaches of Kramatorsk within days/1-2 weeks after Bakhmut falls, i would be very surprised

I also hope that Ukraine listens to their western counterparts and use Bakhmut as a delaying action, using just the amount of required manpower and artillery ( no tanks ) to stop a breakthrough, delay the Russian advance and make it very costly for them, while at the same time building up mechanized/armored brigades using western equipment and western trained infantry units in good order.
I swear to god, if Ukraine sends in CV90's and Leopards piecemeal into Bakhmut, i will rip my hair off

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukrainian UA-22 recon drone crashes near Moscow & Rosneft facility.

By AFP - Agence France Presse
February 28, 2023
A drone that was likely targeting civilian infrastructure crashed near Moscow on Tuesday, a regional official said, after the defence ministry reported downing two Ukrainian drones in southern Russia.

"As for the incident with the crash of a UAV in district of Kolomna... the target was probably a civilian infrastructure facility, which was not damaged," Moscow regional governor Andrei Vorobyov said in a statement, referring to unmanned aerial vehicles.

"There are no casualties or damage on the ground. The FSB (security services) and other competent authorities are investigating," Vorobyov said.

Authorities have not specified what infrastructure may have been targeted, but Russian energy giant Gazprom operates a facility near the village of Gubastovo, where the drone crashed.

Gazprom told Russian state-run news agency RIA Novosti that its operations in the Kolomna region were operating uninterrupted.

"There were no emergencies due to the drone crash," its press service said in comments carried by RIA Novosti.

Vorobyov, the Moscow regional governor, gave his statement shortly after the defence ministry said Russian forces had downed two Ukrainian drones in southern Russia.

"The Kyiv regime attempted to use unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) to attack civilian infrastructure in the Krasnodar region and the Adygea Republic. The UAVs were neutralised by electronic warfare units," it said.
The reported incidents are the latest in a series of suspected drone attacks in recent months inside Russia -- sometimes far from the border with Ukraine -- that Moscow has blamed on Kyiv.

Elsewhere in Russia, a previously unknown Ukrainian drone is also found.

Details remain limited, but three apparent improvised kamikaze drones have reportedly come down in Russia's Belgorod region. Imagery of the drones suggests they could be a design in Ukrainian military service that has been weaponized in part through the addition of British-supplied explosive charges. Since April 2022, there have been multiple reports of Ukraine's armed forces striking at targets in Belgorod, which lies just on the opposite side of the country's northeastern border, primarily using drones.
Reports that remain largely unconfirmed, some citing Belgorod's governor, say that the trio of drones came down in the region's capital city, also named Belgorod, earlier this evening local time. Additional reports that have not yet been confirmed suggest that Russian air defenses may have knocked them out of the sky, or at least attempted to do so.
Pictures and videos now circulating on social media show what looks to be at least one of the drones in flight over Belgorod, as well as at least two separate sets of wreckage. What their intended targets may have been are unclear. At the time of writing, there are also no reports of any significant damage or casualties.

And now for something completely different; although imagine the complete lack of surprise:

Russian commander of Russian forces in Belarus performing naked strip-tease leaked:

Lieutenant General Matovnikov is a former member of Moscow’s influential security council
The tactic of shaming opponents by leaking compromising content is a traditional method used in Russia.

“The leak of the video is very likely intended to further embarrass Matovnikov for the operational failures that reportedly enabled Belarusian partisans to attack Machulichi air base near Minsk yesterday and damage an A-50 surveillance aircraft,” said Chris O, a military historian.

Related:

The video was leaked after a Russian A-50 spy aircraft, which is used to identify and track targets, was severely damaged by anti-government partisans in Belarus.

The Belarusian regime has allowed its airfields and territories to be used by Moscow to stage attacks on Ukraine.

The plane had been used to locate potential targets for Russia’s fleet of MiG fighter jets stationed in Belarus on at least six occasions.

The attack reportedly damaged the plane’s front and central parts, as well as its radar antenna.

Bypol, a group of Belarusian security officials who resigned in protest against the brutal crushing of anti-regime protests in 2020, claimed responsibility for the attack.

And in other news....unhappy mobik/families complain videos are becoming fairly common. It appears that they're mobilizing formerly exempt professions (i.e. engineers) and telling them they'll serve as homogeneous units & work within their job speciality; only to be split up & fed into human-wave attacks piecemeal.

At the rate they're going, Russia isn't going to have much of a workforce left between the ages of 18-60... at least not without importing or enslaving them from elsewhere.

 

[DumbDude43]

“The leak of the video is very likely intended to further embarrass Matovnikov for the operational failures that reportedly enabled Belarusian partisans to attack Machulichi air base near Minsk yesterday and damage an A-50 surveillance aircraft,”

i dont buy this story about belarus partisans
i think it was a ukr drone or missile strike instead

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

i dont buy this story about belarus partisans
i think it was a ukr drone or missile strike instead

Wayward Ukrainian S-300s & drones aren't cause enough, but specifically targeting Russian aircraft on Belarusian soil would give Luka casus belli, and the extra leverage for Putin to push Luka into it. This why Ukraine has refrained from hitting all those juicy Russian congregations inside Belarus.

I'm just surprised it's taken this long for "partisans" to start smoking around Russian ammo-dumps & aircraft, especially given the numbers of Belarusian volunteers who could be tapped for the job.

Although maybe it's just taken Ukraine this long to select & train those teams; and/or the optempo has changed, allowing Ukraine to start using them elsewhere.

 

[Foltest]

@Pocket Dragoon That map shows how the ethnic minorities of Russia are being used as fodder, while the "core russians" are being spared.
Resentment will be felt.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

@Pocket Dragoon That map shows how the ethnic minorities of Russia are being used as fodder, while the "core russians" are being spared.
Resentment will be felt.

I also wouldn't be surprised if places like Moscow aren't being tapped as much because the military-age demographic in their large cities has fled; and everyone left is aged-out, disabled, or otherwise untouchable.

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

i dont buy this story about belarus partisans
i think it was a ukr drone or missile strike instead

Today and last night was around at least five drone attacks in proper ruzzia, one of them successfull (rafinery in Krasnodar).

It took so much time because Ukraine recently adapted new kinds of long-range weapon from west.

 

[Fait Accompli]

Russia can afford to be poor, their people are used to it and their power structure can weather a lot more unhappiness and unpopularity than western countries can. The gas isn't about their money, it's about their global power. As long as they have a button they can push that makes Germans freeze to death, they can get away with a lot. The second they lose that the EU is going to start dragging their sweaty balls all over Russia's face at every opportunity, and being constantly humiliated on the world stage is going to be lot more threatening to a government like Putin's than the economy tanking.

Maybe the people, but can the state afford to be poor? The state that now has the massive task of restructuring and rebuilding their military, the state that has the task of re-tooling and refocusing exports to other countries which would take a massive investment?

The whole power structure relies on corruption along the lines, Putin draws power from the oligarchs. Now, they might be able to still stay rich at the expense of the state and the people, but this will just erode Russias power even more and anger the populace. And if they dont do this, if the money stops flowing into their pockets, the entire power structure with Putin on top seems likely to collapse.
From my perspective on Russia, it feels like the only thing keeping it together is the cash flow. If Putin is responsible for their pockets getting empty and has no hope or will of filling them again, they will likely try to replace him. Seems more likely than a grassroots rebellion atleast

The gas ( and oil ) exports is then fundamental to the entire scheme, but it is also true that it has been useful as a sort of soft power, especially into Europe. But now that is mostly gone, they pressed the button and Germany didnt freeze to death. There is no more button

 

[mindlessobserver]

Exactly my thought, they've been slogging around in the Bakhmut area for MONTHS. And when Soledar fell, there wasnt any breakthrough to speak of. It just doesnt seem like the Russians are capable of effective breakthroughs in this stage of the war, atleast not large scale ones with speed. I havent seen them do any breakthrough for atleast 6-8 months, right me if im wrong

The Russian Army has never shown to be capable of significant breakthroughs. Their biggest victory to this point in the stage of the war following the initial invasion where they had strategic surprise, was the Battle of Severedonetsk. They were able to push the Ukrainians from the area, but Ukraine withdrew in good order and reformed their battle line to the west within a day. A few weeks later Ukraine counter attacked in the North and routed Russia out of Kharkiv.

Russia's logistical issues are why. They do not have the capability of doing armored spear heads to take advantage of an enemy put into retreat. To do this you need to be able to sustain mechanized force at a high tempo for days beyond where you have originally set up your supply point. This means trucks and tenders following along quickly behind the main thrust of the advance. Its almost as complicated a maneuver as retreat under fire. Russia simply cannot do it. They don't have the supply train capable of it. That is why their advance is so slow, and what breakthroughs they do make are always limited in size and distance.

 

[draggs]

It was an unusually warm winter in Europe this year. Enough that basically jack got accomplished in terms of military initiatives in Ukraine b/c the ground never froze. The lack of shortages is more a case of being bailed out by the climate than Europe properly planning for it. There's a reason things were so doom-and-gloom last August.
I'm sure European nations will try to establish better energy pipelines after this close call, but I'm not certain it'll necessarily pan out.

European gas storage capacity was more than 90% filled way back in October, and reached a peak of about 96% filled in November, and never dropped below 82-83%. They did do a pretty good job, it wasn't all just lucky mild weather. They could have handled a harsher winter.

 

[Ghostse]

More so the entire wagner group is considered outside russian KIA list for MOD due they are mercs and suppose to be self sufficient and supplyed hence why no one in the world has a mercenary company that are operating tanks and fighter jets. It's kinda strange to say the least

Its actually not all that uncommon. There are (or were) several merc groups in Africa and South America (though lessened) that operated small units of fighters in the 70s/80s. But the jets were mostly used in recon and ground-attack.

The US might not want to to support a tin-pot, but also really hates the commies he's killing, so you arrange for Fast Zoomers, Inc to pick up a contract with General Hojalata to provide air support for his forces.

Exactly my thought, they've been slogging around in the Bakhmut area for MONTHS. And when Soledar fell, there wasnt any breakthrough to speak of. It just doesnt seem like the Russians are capable of effective breakthroughs in this stage of the war, atleast not large scale ones with speed. I havent seen them do any breakthrough for atleast 6-8 months, right me if im wrong

Again, hate to give the Vatniks any quarter, but look at the area around Soledar. There's fair bit of new red ink on the map. Nothing of importance, but that's not the progress you want to see.

Today and last night was around at least five drone attacks in proper ruzzia, one of them successfull (rafinery in Krasnodar).

It took so much time because Ukraine recently adapted new kinds of long-range weapon from west.

All the wonkinating I saw was that in march you'd start to see some shit going down as 2023's supplies would start coming through

The Russian Army has never shown to be capable of significant breakthroughs. Their biggest victory to this point in the stage of the war following the initial invasion where they had strategic surprise, was the Battle of Severedonetsk. They were able to push the Ukrainians from the area, but Ukraine withdrew in good order and reformed their battle line to the west within a day. A few weeks later Ukraine counter attacked in the North and routed Russia out of Kharkiv.

Russia's logistical issues are why. They do not have the capability of doing armored spear heads to take advantage of an enemy put into retreat. To do this you need to be able to sustain mechanized force at a high tempo for days beyond where you have originally set up your supply point. This means trucks and tenders following along quickly behind the main thrust of the advance. Its almost as complicated a maneuver as retreat under fire. Russia simply cannot do it. They don't have the supply train capable of it. That is why their advance is so slow, and what breakthroughs they do make are always limited in size and distance.

Russia has the capability. They have the tankers and supply vehicles to support a rapid armored thrust (or had; their 40mile convoy getting BTFO has reduced their thin-skin fleet).
What they lack is the ability to capitalize on and properly use that logistic capacity.

The war games a year ago in Belarus Russia was trying to do a dry run of an armored thrust, it was marred by logistical failures NATO (I believe estonian) observers noticed, but they never corrected to the shock of everyone who wasn't Russian.

 

[Snekposter]

It helped that the Japanese military was completely discredited, particularly once the looting of Army stores by senior officers started to become publicized. It also helped that Japan had a certain amount of inter war good will saved up. Ignore the whole racism allegations that modern writers like to bring up, a lot of prominent US Politicians, Businessmen, Soldiers had visited Japan before the war, Including MacArthur and Truman, and had an affinity for the country.

The Secretary of War, Henry L. Stimson, had even gone on honeymoon to Japan in Kyoto, and was instrumental in getting it taken off the nuke list. And yes, the Japanese knew they had gambled and lost, and that the only way to survive was to seek accommodation with the victor, mostly because they knew damn well from experience how limited American magnanimity actually could be once we were pressed.

Like I said I was doing a high level overview. You must remember less than century before WWII, Japan was effectively still living in the 1400s. They didn't particularly like the military, and largely viewed the military as holding the Emperor hostage as the Shogunate had done. The Zaibatsu were broken up and the Yakuza were driven into the shadows, and these moves were also wildly popular.

Wut? The Yakuza absolutely weren't driven into the shadows. In fact they were made semi-legit because their ability to get shit done through back channels was considered handy when it came time to rebuild. There's a reason they have front offices in Japan, and even openly participate in things like disaster relief like the Yamaguchi did after the Kobe and Tohoku earthquakes. Hell, they were the first ones on the scene at Kobe on account of the Japanese feds being a mess for the first few critical days.

I doubt Ukraine is intentionally nerf'ing their grenades just to maim and not kill; but I have no doubt the grenades are designed to still maim at ranges which they cant kill from.

All explosives have a kill radius (where anyone within it is just dead) and a casualty radius (where anyone in it but outside the kill radius is wounded to the point of being combat ineffective). Keep in mind that even relatively minor shrapnel wounds can render a guy combat ineffective thanks to things like oh... he needs constant changing of his bandages and a close eye on his injuries to ensure things don't get infected. Sending a guy with a semi-open wound into the literal dirty mess that is battle is going to give him gangrene and turn a recoverable wound into one that sees him medically discharged because he's missing a limb.

Defensive grenades are a whole other thing but I have zero knowledge when it comes to those so I couldn't tell you off the top of my head.

IIRC the kill radius is a bit smaller, but the overall casualty radius is much larger.

Anyways, some actual talk about the current war now:

https://twitter.com/Tatarigami_UA/status/1629722073487613953
They're learning. Slowly. Not a terrible idea on paper, but... execution is the tricky part.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Russia has the capability. They have the tankers and supply vehicles to support a rapid armored thrust (or had; their 40mile convoy getting BTFO has reduced their thin-skin fleet).
What they lack is the ability to capitalize on and properly use that logistic capacity.

The war games a year ago in Belarus Russia was trying to do a dry run of an armored thrust, it was marred by logistical failures NATO (I believe estonian) observers noticed, but they never corrected to the shock of everyone who wasn't Russian.

I strongly suspect "Machismo Culture" is to blame for alot of this. Personified by the picture of Putin riding a horse shirtless, but the rot probably sinks all the way to the bone. Simply put, its a tendency to view the support jobs in a military as somehow "less then" the actual combat jobs. Its an easy trap for any Army to fall into, because the combat roles are more dangerous in war, and are the ones who get photographed doing the great deeds and so on. But in any modern army, a single infantryman probably requires at least 5 other soldiers of varying specializations. Everything from the Medic in case he gets shot to the Laundry specialist that makes sure he gets clean gear and equipment.

This sort of myopia even afflicts the US military on occasion, and from what I am seeing its really afflicted the Russian Army badly. For example, in many of the videos showing Mobiks getting kitted out (poorly) the "supply officer" is a woman. That right there is a huge red flag to me, because this seems to indicate a culture of thought in the Russian military that views combat supply as an effeminate task. Which is a huge issue in a military culture that views homosexual rape as a form of discipline. I would hazard a guess the supply officer and his men are viewed as the lowest of the low in any front line infantry unit in the Russian Army. Which in turn means they aren't really motivated to stick their necks out, and probably easily bribed for handing over ammo and rations intended for the troops to whoever wants to slip them some vodka money.

 

[draggs]

Again, hate to give the Vatniks any quarter, but look at the area around Soledar. There's fair bit of new red ink on the map. Nothing of importance, but that's not the progress you want to see.

This fair bit of red ink on the map around Soledar is about 50 square miles of captured territory since December 1st. For the casualties Russia has taken to achieve that, I would be perfectly fine with that outcome if I were in the hohol ministry of defense.

 

[mindlessobserver]

This fair bit of red ink on the map around Soledar is about 50 square miles of captured territory since December 1st. For the casualties Russia has taken to achieve that, I would be perfectly fine with that outcome if I were in the hohol ministry of defense.

Also lets not forget Ukraine has pulled their best units off the Front line to go for training on advanced weapons systems in the west. I've heard numbers bandied about of around 30,000 troops in the EU and US training on various platforms from the Bradley to the Leopard. This glacial giving of ground could also be interpreted as Ukraine simply stalling for time and waiting for the mud to go away. Team Z occasionally ponders the possibility but then concludes it can't be true and all the troops Ukraine had intended for a spring counter attack are already in Bakhmut getting slaughtered.

 

[whogoesthere]

Dude they nerve gassed England. We were in a proxy-war with them over Syria. They used to send nuclear bomber wings into Sweden and then call them back last-second to psyche people out. They've been the enemy a long, long time.


A price hike of 40% is pretty serious for politicians who need to be relected.

Nerve gas? you mean the incident just a few miles from Porton Down? the same one that "accidentally" released BSE twice, as well as failing to clean up anthrax tests resulting in anthrax attacks?. Not to mention, the investigation into it was mostly a complete joke, and was criticised for not bothering to including talking to Russia about it at all. It was rubber-stamped state disinfo.

(I am not defending Russia, I just hate my nations' government lying. Russia and Ukraine can fucking burn for all the shits I care about either of them.)

 

[Fait Accompli]

Also lets not forget Ukraine has pulled their best units off the Front line to go for training on advanced weapons systems in the west. I've heard numbers bandied about of around 30,000 troops in the EU and US training on various platforms from the Bradley to the Leopard. This glacial giving of ground could also be interpreted as Ukraine simply stalling for time and waiting for the mud to go away. Team Z occasionally ponders the possibility but then concludes it can't be true and all the troops Ukraine had intended for a spring counter attack are already in Bakhmut getting slaughtered.

I really hope this is the case
Delay the areas where Russian offensives are happening, with as little effort as possible

Train, equip and prepare several brigades for a large counter-attack

If this is the case, then Russia is fucked

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

Russia's logistical issues are why.

I think this is more about IQ and cultural aspects. Read our local vatniggers - probably same mindset has typicall ruzzkie soldier.

Did any of them will change his behaviour due to situation? IDK - lets say they are a tank crew, they have order to go to point X and also they are told that enemy was smashed down by muh mighty iranian drones (imagine that your military is using shit from Iran).

Do they change drill if something goes wrong? No, they will just refuse to accept that some enemies arties are still firing (because officer told them that they will be no arties, so this must be a western propaganda and that BTR-50 forward wasn't blown).