Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

There's a claim that hohol soldiers only last 4 hours on average in Bakhmut

Never mind that that being true and also maintaining the defense for any length of time much less months is impossible lol
 
Null said:
Notable increase in violent, frothing rage from mentally ill people from /pol/ when suggesting the war is stupid.
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a lot of these people have convinced themselves that invading one of the whitest nations in europe and slaughtering them by the hundreds of thousands in the name of denazification while waving red hammer+sickle flags is actually super based and redpilled somehow

schizophrenia
 
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DumbDude43 said:
a lot of these people have convinced themselves that invading one of the whitest nations in europe and slaughtering them by the hundreds of thousands in the name of denazification while waving red hammer+sickle flags is actually super based and redpilled somehow

schizophrenia
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Once the war is over, Western nations seriously should invest in mandatory virginity inspections and "touch grass" bootcamps. Maybe bugmen are onto something, when they lower your soccred for playing too much vidya or using too much Internet. Obviously, not condoning soccred, but you know, food for thought.
 
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Null said:
Notable increase in violent, frothing rage from mentally ill people from /pol/ when suggesting the war is stupid. I really don't think my take is so extreme but there are some seriously unhinged faggots who are having mental breakdowns over it.
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The anger is not because of either a difference in political opinions or even ethics, it's that they've hitched part of their identity to that side of the conflict. Same reason people fight and riot over sports.
Letting irrelevant shit into your personal identity is stupid. It should be reserved for family, loved ones, and possibly people you're actively working with to accomplish a task (aka camaraderie).
 
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Of course the war is stupid, all war is stupid. But stupidity is a natural part of life
 
So uh.....Its officially spring now.

Meaning that the sum total operation success of the endlessly hyped and coomed over "Russian winter offensive" that would annihilate Ukraine and buckbreak the west forever, the one led by "general armageddon" and made up of the 700,000 fresh and highly trained russian supersoldier conscripts, supported by endless numbers of T-14s and SU-57s, all fighting in their element in exactly what all their tech and training was apparently designed for was.....

A salt mine

Meanwhile ukraine is now casually organising obama weddings on russian infrastructure, and causing the seethe to reach the front pages of state propaganda outlets by saying they dindu nuffin as russia issues yet another litany of empty threats in all directions

Can someone enlighten me as to when steinerkov's counter offensive is gonna happen? kinda getting bored here
 
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If you get your worldview from /pol/, then you are a fucking moron.
Yes, mass media is absolute dogshit, but it is still better then /pol/.
I rather trust The Times, the economist and even rags like Daliy Mail then some random shit on /pol/.
Only use /pol/ for the lolzs. That is my advise.
 
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Foltest said:
If you get your worldview from /pol/, then you are a fucking moron.
Yes, mass media is absolute dogshit, but it is still better then /pol/.
I rather trust The Times, the economist and even rags like Daliy Mail then some random shit on /pol/.
Only use /pol/ for the lolzs. That is my advise.
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I get all my news and opinions from Null's streams.
 
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Spud Stacker said:
So uh.....Its officially spring now.

Meaning that the sum total operation success of the endlessly hyped and coomed over "Russian winter offensive" that would annihilate Ukraine and buckbreak the west forever, the one led by "general armageddon" and made up of the 700,000 fresh and highly trained russian supersoldier conscripts, supported by endless numbers of T-14s and SU-57s, all fighting in their element in exactly what all their tech and training was apparently designed for was.....

A salt mine

Meanwhile ukraine is now casually organising obama weddings on russian infrastructure, and causing the seethe to reach the front pages of state propaganda outlets by saying they dindu nuffin as russia issues yet another litany of empty threats in all directions

Can someone enlighten me as to when steinerkov's counter offensive is gonna happen? kinda getting bored here
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They even had a gay name for it, 'Winter of Yuri'. This guy is one of the big 'intellectuals' that Gonzalo Lira and co. often cite:

This depletion comes precisely as Russian force generation is surging, foretelling the Winter of Yuri.

The Winter War

Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise. Russia is going to launch a late autumn/winter offensive and achieve significant gains. The arc of force generation (both Russia’s increasing force accumulation and Ukraine’s degradation) coincide with the approach of cold weather.
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Winter weather actually favors a Russian offensive for multiple reasons. One of the paradoxes of military operations is that freezing weather actually enhances mobility - vehicles can get stuck in mud, but not on frozen ground. From 1941-43, German troops celebrated the arrival of spring, because the thaw promised to bog the Red Army down in mud and slow their momentum. The winter death of foliage also reduces the cover available to troops in a defensive posture. And, of course, cold weather favors the side with more reliable access to energy.

As for where Russia will choose to commit its newly generated forces, there are four realistic possibilities, which I will enumerate in no particular order:

Reopening the Northern Front with an operation around Kharkov. The attractiveness of this option is clear. A Russian move in force towards Kharkov would immediately collapse all of Ukraine’s gains towards the Oskil by compromising their rear areas.

An offensive on Nikolayev out of the Kherson region. This would move further towards the goal of a landlocked Ukraine, and would take advantage of the fact that Ukrainian forces in this region are badly chewed up after their own failed offensive.

Massive commitment to the Donbas to finish the liberation of DNR territory by capturing Slovyansk and Kramatorsk. This is less likely, as Russia has demonstrated comfort with the slow tempo of operations on this front.

A push north from the Melitopol area towards Zaparozhia. This would safeguard the nuclear powerplant and end any credible threats to the land bridge to Crimea.

Other possibilities I regard as unlikely. A second advance on Kiev would make little operational sense, as it would not support any of the existing fronts. I would expect action around Kiev only if the new force generation is significantly larger than the headline number of 300,000. Otherwise, Russia’s winter offensives are likely to be concentrated on mutually supporting fronts. I think some movement to reopen the northern is likely, as it would completely compromise Ukraine’s gains in the Izyum-Kupyansk direction. There are rumors that forces are being moved into Belarus, but I actually think the Chernigov-Sumy axis would be more likely than a new Kiev operation, as it could be supportive of an offensive on Kharkov.

On the broadest level, it is clear that Ukraine’s window to conduct offensive operations is nearing its close, and the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter.
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I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping” after Ukraine’s gains in Kharkov oblast, but time will tell out. Ukraine is on its last legs - they drained everything usable out of NATO stockpiles to build up a first tier force over the summer, and that force has been mauled and degraded beyond repair just as Russia’s force generation is set to massively increase. Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe. In the end, the United States will be left to rule over a deindustrialized and degraded Europe, and a rump Ukrainian trashcanistan sequestered west of the Dnieper.

For now, though, we are in the interregnum as the last flames of Ukraine’s fighting power flickers out. Then there will be an operational pause, and then a Russian winter offensive. There will be several weeks where nothing happens, and then everything will happen.

During that operational pause, you may be tempted to ask - “is it done, Yuri?”

No, Comrade Premiere. It has only begun.
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I am fully cognizant that my views will be spun as “coping”
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Anyone who expects the war to slow down during the winter is in for a surprise
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Winter will bring not only the eclipse of the Ukrainian army, the destruction of vital infrastructure, and the loss of new territory and population centers, but also a severe economic crisis in Europe
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the force generation ratios on the ground are going to swing decisively in Russia’s favor through the winter
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Ghostse said:
Its very likely a lot of Ukrainian's better units are off the front, either doing training or just recovery/R&R while General Mud makes any massive breakthroughs impossible. And as @daggs points out, while the Russian cost for the meager gains is staggering, remember that Russia is 4x-5x bigger than Ukraine and able to absorb losses more readily.
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Ukrainian soldiers are being paid, getting hot meals and rotated in and out of the front. They're also getting bonuses paid into their bank accounts on time.

Meanwhile Russia is just cracking on as normal. They're relying on an unreformed conscription system which is infamously broken, as corrupt as it is brutal. Troops aren't being fed, sleeping bags still aren't individual issue (victor suvorov wrote about the sleeping bag issue in the book 'inside the red army' in the 1980's), and they're going into battle not knowing whether their families will be looked after if they're killed.

The Russian population is 145 million, and it's crippled by emigration. I think Russia is going to struggle with those casualties, not just on a societal level where casualties start causing unrest, but on a demographic level. All the young men with means have fled the country , there are others that have gone into hiding (both groups no longer able to participate in the Labor market) Putin can't afford to have smart people underneath him, so his collection of corrupt midwits are just going to crack on as normal. Stealing as much as they can from the defense budget while not rocking the boat.

Ultimately Ukraine is going to win this. They'll fight the war that Phillipe Petain wanted to fight in WWI, where artillery and unlimited supplies of foreign produced weapons slaughters the enemy, with the role of infantry being to just occupy ground.

It might take another year, but eventually the production of artillery shells and rockets is going to get to the point where the Ukrainians can just remove whole grid squares from the map and then send troops in to occupy what remains.

This is why there are stories being fed to the media about the 'shells shortage' because western countries want public support to ramp up production for Ukraine.
 
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