Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[teriyakiburns]

So which side will give in first at this point?

Twitter.

 

[Ghostse]

I disagree. The power of nukes is almost entirely in not using them, or committing totally. They're a threat of absolute destruction. If Putin uses them in Ukraine, then the west will have no choice but to destroy Putin in turn. It will be clear to all involved that he will use nukes irrationally to get his way, which means that his use of them against the west will, at that point, be inevitable; a question of when, not if. The only rational response from the west will be the absolute destruction of the Russian state, in order to prevent further use of nukes against the west.

I'm going to tl;dr here.
This is a human psychology trait - the threat of negative consequences is greater than the actual consequences themselves.
So you're 100% in that their main use is in deterence and the fact other major powers have them. No one wants to be the person who starts that war because their people will suffer for it.

Nukes are not that bad. They aren't good, don't get me wrong, but the thing where eveyrone is melting due to radition going through the blast zone is pure fiction. This was fed through by anti-nuke and bleeding heart peaceniks spreading thier message with KGB supplied cash. There is a reason the USSR is rotten with reactors and the US has so few, and that is the Soviets sending money and support to any anti-nuke org while gulaging any Soviet citizen who had any reservations about the lack of safety

Anyway, daily reminder that the worlds largest nuclear weapon, the Tsar Bomba, produced barely detectable fallout because it was a 3-stage bomb set to react all of the fissible mass. All modern* weapons are "two-stage" variable yeild and would produce next to no fallout.

*All of the US/UK/France and it is believed all of the Russian (at least all of the listed Russian, provided they were built to provided spec) and most of the chinese; Isreal is suspected their secret weapons are also advanced, India & Pakitan are a toss-up; NK & Iran likely still only have single-stage Atomic (not Nuclear) weapons.

If nukes were to be used in ukraine it would not only be the west turning heel to russia, but every country in the world bar north korea. China would be happy to destroy russia and occupy the russian far east.

Nukes, even Tac-Nukes, are very likely a red-line for the CCP and probably the only reason Russia hasn't used them.
China is extremely vulnerable to nuclear strikes due to population distribution, and their most advanced missiles can only reach San Francisco. Their economy is also in very bad shape and even if no detonations take place on Chinese soil, the CCP is unlikely to survive the economic chaos of WWIII.

Winnie the Pooh would also love nothing more than to have a UN mandate to occupy Siberia.

 

[delerious?]

China has a no first strike policy. Taiwan bullshit will never happen because of the enormous loss of population if a MOAB was dropped on shenzhen. Xi Jingping should stick to what he's good at.

 

[Ghostse]

The reason the brits didn't nuke argentina during the falklands war was because reagan stepped in since the cold war was getting really fucking hot at the time and the soviets depended on argentine grain imports to keep their people feed after the embargoes due to the invasion of afghanistan.

The reason the brits didn't nuke the Argentines was because they didn't need to. Once the Argentinian forces found themselves facing more than 40 surprised british marines, most of the Argentine bases became in the word of one commando "Self-administering POW camps". There were factions that wanted a quick retaliatory strike yes, but they were overruled. If the royal navy hadn't been able to quickly evict the spics, or if Argentina had committed more forces than it did, it might have gone different.

US intervention was preemptive to keep the conflict from escalating to the point and to add weight to the side pushing for a purely conventional response.

China has a no first strike policy. Taiwan bullshit will never happen because of the enormous loss of population if a MOAB was dropped on shenzhen. Xi Jingping should stick to what he's good at.

I'll tl;dr this and leave off tons of Nuance.
The chinese have a concept of the "mandate of heaven" - "The person who is supposed to be in charge is in charge because they have power, if they aren't supposed to be in charge they will be removed from power". The cyclical reasoning has a logic to it. Anyway, one of the ways to prove you have the Mandate of Heaven is you rule all the imperial domains. This is why they invaded Tibet. Taiwan/Formosa is one of those domains.

The CCP cannot nuke Taiwan because the people there are chinese. Killing lots of civilians isn't what someone with the mandate of heaven does, they are there to guide and direct the people of china not slaughter them.
So in order to do so they'd have to make a case - a case an ignorant chink rice farmer can agree with - that they aren't chinese. One of the ways they could that is if Taiwan formally declared independence, which is why that will never happen (also because the Taiwanese leaders alos have dreams of ruling all china via that same Mandate of heaven if something could just be done about those pesky commies)

 

[No. 7 cat]

If nukes were to be used in ukraine it would not only be the west turning heel to russia, but every country in the world bar north korea. China would be happy to destroy russia and occupy the russian far east.

In that scenario PRC would simply help itself to much of Siberia which was once marchland territory of the Chinese Empire. While you never say never with this war, Putin and pals from Gundyaev to Lavrov are men who love the trappings of power whether palaces, yachts and apartments in the most vulgar possible form (Kabaeva's suspected pad suggests Mexican drug lords are masters of good taste compared to Putin). Hiding in a bunker while awaiting a fast or slow death would be a bit too much of a comedown.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

I don't know guys, I think Russia will just nuke Ukraine then the west will just bend over and let Russia prove they can nuke whoever they want.
What could go wrong?

 

[delerious?]

In that scenario PRC would simply help itself to much of Siberia which was once marchland territory of the Chinese Empire. While you never say never with this war, Putin and pals from Gundyaev to Lavrov are men who love the trappings of power whether palaces, yachts and apartments in the most vulgar possible form (Kabaeva's suspected pad suggests Mexican drug lords are masters of good taste compared to Putin). Hiding in a bunker while awaiting a fast or slow death would be a bit too much of a comedown.

Would russians even rebel in this scenario? Me thinks no. They're too complacent like the chinese but unlike the chinese they have no large middle class, maybe a middle class equivalent with Nigeria. What can Igor the whalefisher do against the unending surveillance state of the PRC? Life would probably improve for these people after a chinese takeover (maybe some outhouse upgrades?)

 

[draggs]

China will never take Siberia unless Russia's nukes are taken out of the picture

There is no 'China invades the Russian Far East' scenario where Russia doesn't drop as many nukes as it can on Three Gorges and Chinese cities

 

[GoPro]

Had we played our cards right and let bygones be bygones russia would be west-aligned, europe would be completely energy-independent from the middle east, we would've access to insane mineral wealth, and more importantly the russians would shift their military focus to the far east to protect their territories from china which has never let its irredentism of getting back that land from russia, something that again any analyst worth a fuck is well aware of. In this scenario russia would act as a giant nuclear buffer on the west while our pacific fleet keeps the chinese at bay in the east, we would have beijing by the balls.

Instead we let russia crumble, we helped keep that fucking joke yeltsin in power by hijacking their elections, we let him fuckup over and over because of the economic opportunities the firesale of soviet assets could be to our corporations. Joke is on us tho because the former communist apparatchiks took all of that and became the oligarchs who then created putin, ain't that a bitch?

It takes two to tango. When you look at transition to capitalism, it went overall well everywhere except for Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova. The less influence Russia had over a nation, the more successful was the implementation of necessary reforms. In Russia's case, the failure to implement capitalist reforms somehow ended with ex-KGB and their allies getting a major chunk of the wealth. Many of them got into politics and one of even became the head of the government eventually. The supposed American puppet Yeltsin and his government went against American interests and meddled with ex-Warsaw pact nations' ascension to NATO and EU. Putin continued that policy. That firesale of Russian assets somehow ended up with Russian government and Russian companies like Gazprom still holding onto them and a rise of the oligarch class in Russia.

 

[delerious?]

On another note, the concerns russia has about depleted uranium isn't entirely unfounded. Depleted uranium penetrators can have an effect on the local populace and the land. It could pollute ukranian super-soil etc. Not like it warrants a tactical nuclear strike as it's not a large escelation, russian tankers die regularly due to poor training and their roscosmos tanks. (I'm not sure if russia deployed their dep uranium shells with their tanks, so this could be russia crying over the playingfield leveling.)

 

[Melmac_Knight]

When it comes down to it, there's one actor in all of this that has the power to end the loss of life right now: Russia.
All they have to do is walk away. Just walk away.

But they won't. Because they imagine themselves as splendorous and magnificent, and functional countries as lesser. Mistakes to subvert.
Then they cry foul when they think those countries are responding in kind with subversion of their own.

they don't want to accept that the SMO was a failure after hyping it up as an ez win. what are they gonna say to the families who's son died and received a sack of potatoes in return "upsi wupsi we made a fucky wucky and sent your son to die in a pointless agreesive attack" no, currently the only option is to continue until the last Russian or claim "so guys we did it, we finally killed every last Nazi in Ookraine"

the longer they are in this conflict the longer they don't have to face the consciences

 

[Null]

China has a no first strike policy. Taiwan bullshit will never happen because of the enormous loss of population if a MOAB was dropped on shenzhen. Xi Jingping should stick to what he's good at.

I've seen these in person

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

Now you're doing the same shit vatniks do.

So the Tuapse raffinery never happened and Daria Dugina never make a blow up into the skies.

Is like nobody here fucking understands how MAD works, here's a hint: the M stands for MUTUAL, as in "the other side has to have nukes for this to work".

Suggesting that in case of nuke war it will not start with overhelming (or: try to make it) attack on enemies nukes with conventional/unconventional weapons.

Also suggesting that nuke aren't overrated like C weapons hundred years ago.

Also suggesting that nuke&*BM collections in 2023 are same that in 1983.

Seriously, we are in that point again? No one will use nuke in this war. No matter how many nukes anybody have.

But belgorod is not moscow, the moment muscovites start dying his power base will be affect and calling for revenge.

They are nearly none targets for striking in proper Moscow from military perspective of Ukraine. Yes, vaporizing Moscow could be fun, but in military terms most shitty bridge over near Ukraine is more important.

Smashing MOD, Kremlin or anything like that will merely change one idiots with another ones. Maybye less retarded. Or even will not do that if none signifant will die in them.

They're a threat of absolute destruction.

Only if you have large number of them, target is pretty small and you have a option to deliver them and have at least some of them actualy making a blast.

He can't afford to ignore that, he can't afford to lose face like that.

They can.

Whole secret of rulling in ruzzia is to have some minions that have profits from your rule, nothing more. Citizens of Moscow will not start a revolution because few bombs will go in their city, also none general will make a coup d'etat because certain bombs make a BOOM in certain places.

Ruzzia isn't a country where general population belives in anything other than they will receive their pensions in next month. They can made some statments how they care about something, but they lie. They will have in ass death even of whole school in center of Moscow, just like they have in ass everyones death.

Frankly I am extremely fucking doubtful of this, as russia has long had a habit of massively overestimating its ability to influence the western public by gayops and the like, to the point where its main gameplan for the west in the twilight of the cold war was to bet on a latter day wannabe hippy movement making it go full peacenik and accordingly offered extremely unsubtle "covert" support and sometimes straight up overt support to fringe organisations ignored or reviled by the actual western public

They do not support 'strange' forces in Western countries to carry out their agendas. They support them because, in their moronic doctrine, they believe that increasing tension in Western countries will somehow pay off.

For example, if we accept the thesis that they support trannies: they don't do it because they want CWC to be able to fuck Barbussy with impunity. They don't mind it. They want there to be a discussion in the USA (some part of the US public opinion) whether CWC can do it, shouldn't do it, whether it was enforced by gays' right to marry, could it have been avoided if there was sex education in Virginia and so on.

In EE, they can push money into exceptional idiots, as long as these idiots intensively weave their idiocy. Whether said agent of influence convinces anyone doesn't matter as long as he's doing the scouting (and thus screwing up the public debate that deals with discussing how moronic that agent's views are).

In Moscow, they do not quite understand how democratic states work, and for this reason they are sure that decisions in a democracy will be slower because of the existence in the public space of various discourses on various topics, not necessarily sensible or able to be implemented.

Add to that the fact that there is cosmic corruption and theft. If 1 million chips can go through the hands of some Petrov to, say, the United Party of Perverts, Communists and Nazis, said Petrov will assure his superiors that it will pay off, because he will count on getting some of that million in one way or another.

Let me tell you an anecdote from the Yugoslav years of communism, when Tito was still breathing, from my family's interaction with the security services. Different situation but same logic.

So, before the whole family moved to Germoney, one of my relatives had a need to visit a certain European NATO country on a regular basis. How he got the passport, contacts and so on is not important, what is important is that at some point the glowies made him an offer he couldn't refuse: he was to report to them about certain people and matters in exchange for (simplified) material benefits.

A friend from the university, who served in glowies, made him an offer. My relative took it.

Together, they wrote totally worthless and made-up bullshit in these reports. They reported getting people to cooperate who either didn't know about it or knew but didn't give a shit because they didn't do anything anyway (there was no way to verify it, because abroad, because of the language barrier, because even if they sent someone, he checked whether in fact, Hans provides some information, this someone would probably give a shit about his job, he didn't check it Hans just took money for the work). The Glowies wasted several years' salaries on my relative and his buddy for reports that had no connection to reality. And this was not an isolated case, a large part of both domestic and foreign glowies collaborators simply stole the money they had for their operations or instead of collecting the factual information they were supposed to collect, they simply wrote nonsense in their reports.

I think if ruzzia is financing some elements of tranny movement or so it works very similar.

 

[tulskij_tochnyj]

To all users talking about China invading SIberia: have you been to Southeast Siberia and Russian Far East? It's a peak shithole with an awful climate and infrastructure, not even worth invading. China can get all they want by economic means (unless Russia somehow aligns with the West).

China is extremely vulnerable to nuclear strikes due to population distribution, and their most advanced missiles can only reach San Francisco.

Soviets had working ICBMs by 1961, even before their space program really kicked off. Given the state of Chinese space program, it's hard to believe they DON'T have ICBMs.

China has a no first strike policy. Taiwan bullshit will never happen because of the enormous loss of population if a MOAB was dropped on shenzhen. Xi Jingping should stick to what he's good at.

Taiwan's second largest party unironically supports reunification. Mainland China takeover can come in different forms.

It takes two to tango. When you look at transition to capitalism, it somehow went overall well everywhere except for Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Moldova. The less influence Russia had over the nation, the more successful was the implementation of necessary reforms. In Russia's case, the failure to implement capitalist reforms somehow ended with ex-KGB and their allies with a major chunk of the wealth and one of them as the head of the government eventually.

There weren't any economic relief programs for those countries, lol (unlike for DDR, Czechoslovakia or the Baltics). Plus, Russia had to pay off all USSR and some Russian Empire debts. Ukraine tried to double down on socialism (yes, in the early 90's they had higher support for the Communist Party than Russia) and experienced a brief period of hyperinflation.
And when you're talking about reforms, where'd you get professionals for it? Market economy was banned in USSR universities, the only way to study it was to criticize it from the Marxist-Leninist standpoint (and "Western economic models" departments were chronically underfunded and understaffed, had problems getting economic journals from the US etc.). Read Egor Gaidar's memoirs, they were going in blind, all they had was some textbooks and the ability to ask Western economists for advice over the phone. Plus, reformers barely held any political power and were under constant criticism from the press and the left for "destroying" muh social programs and muh industry.
The economy of USSR was too big to be salvaged purely by private investments (like Czech industry was, for example), and its economists were too incompetent to salvage it without extensive foreign aid and advice.

 

[delerious?]

View attachment 4891360

I've seen these in person

Who runs these? The serbian government switched up in terms of swallowing. Are relations with china equivalent to an african nation china has debt trapped? I'm not caught up on serbian relations.

 

[Null]

Who runs these? The serbian government switched up in terms of swallowing. Are relations with china equivalent to an african nation china has debt trapped? I'm not caught up on serbian relations.

Maybe you don't know, but the Serbians have a good reason to not want to align with the west. Some of the buildings NATO destroyed are still ruins in the city.

 

[delerious?]

Maybe you don't know, but the Serbians have a good reason to not want to align with the west. Some of the buildings NATO destroyed are still ruins in the city.

I was suggesting we bomb belgrade...

 

[CuzinEd]

@cybertoaster

Thing is putin doesn't know what's gonna happen if he uses nukes but he knows that if he doesn't and he loses the war because of that then its over, for him and for his entire circle.

At the same time he knows, and we know, that if ukraine gets nuked the exchange ends there because nobody will get nuked for ukraine, period. We might push sanctions to the limit and start and even bigger cold war with insane levels of defense spending, but we're not letting our entire nation burn to cinders for ukraine.

If Putin is dumb enough or crazy enough to use nuclear weapons the West will get involved. Like someone said in another post it will show that Putin is unhinged and if he is willing to use a nuclear weapon in Ukraine that means he will use them anywhere. Any time he feels like he isn't getting his way he will use a nuclear weapon. It would mean the destruction of Putin and possibly Russia. If they push it that far.

I don't see Putin doing this. If he even thinks about it someone in Russia will probably have him taken out. From what I have heard any military around Putin isn't allowed to carry guns. It sounds like people want him dead already. I bet the soldiers do.

China will never take Siberia unless Russia's nukes are taken out of the picture

There is no 'China invades the Russian Far East' scenario where Russia doesn't drop as many nukes as it can on Three Gorges and Chinese cities

Too late. Russia has already made itself China's bitch. I heard Xi Ji Ping was referring to some Russian cities in Chinese.

Good job Russia. Putin turned Russia into vassal state of China.

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

Given the state of Chinese space program, it's hard to believe they DON'T have ICBMs.

It will be nice if the ICBM which is supposed to hit Cheyenne shelter hits somewhere in Colorado, not in Oklahoma. This is something different that 'we have a long-range missile' - it must also hit a target.

China can get all they want by economic means (unless Russian somehow aligns with the West).

Problem with economy not-backed by pure military force is that the hosting country can just tell you to BTFO, confiscate your assets and send nothing they promised. That is the problem.

China invasion of Siberia is probably out-of-table on this moment.

The economy of USSR was too big to be salvaged purely by private investments (like Czech industry was, for example), and its economists were too incompetent to salvage it without extensive foreign aid and advice.

And last but not least: other former east-block nations have a pretty large and educated diasporas in West. Ruzzkie don't and still have none - their migrants aren't going to university, make no bussiness other than drug-dealing and selling own womans and so one.

If they educate themselves, they are going into IT or some engineering, not bussiness. Any bussiness that isn't related to drugs/human traffic/selling oil is in theier view just a waste of time. You cannot build whole country on this.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

Institute for the Study of War

Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the predictable next information operation to discourage Ukrainian resistance and disrupt Western support for Ukraine as Russian offensives culminate and Ukraine prepares to launch counter-offensives in an

understandingwar.org

Nothing to say other than there are many delusional statements by Putin regarding Russia's DIB and some hilarity from Prigozhin. The situation seems increasingly primed for a counteroffensive and the occupation officials in Zaporizhia are getting scared.

Prigozhin continued to attack those who question the legitimacy of Wagner convict-soldiers and to fight for increased privileges for convict-soldiers. Prigozhin claimed on March 25 that Wagner’s 5,000 released convict-soldiers have a 0.3 percent recidivism rate within the first month of returning from the front lines in Ukraine

lol, I wonder why the "released convicts" don't have a high recidivism rate. Probably because they're all dead.