That's still a pretty hard gamble to make considering the track records from last year in Japan, with Splatoon 3 for instance which is about to surpass 2's lifetime retail sales (4 million) in a mere few weeks away, and it's not one year old yet. Even if it was largely the same game as its predecessor, in a similar fashion of Tears of Kingdom.
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Also the competition from the Playstation brand was a lot more fierce in 2017 compared to its laughable state nowadays. Doesn't help that they can just have a Switch and be confident to get virtually all the third-parties in it (in addition to Nintendo's own offerings), hence the massive userbase gathering all kinds of audiences now.
Edit: I would add that the recent introduction of fusion/crafting & screwing around with physics is gonna make Tears of Kingdom more popular than ever in the nippon market.