In the same way Columbine opened the door for school shootings, I believe the Nashville shooting will make mass murder an option for trannies, especially those who are suicidal. The styling of Audrey as a victim who meted out righteous justice and instilled fear in an evil, unchecked society appeals greatly to the trans mindset.
1. There are a large number of trans and pro-trans people who use identity politics as a replacement for the social cohesion of community, and hide behind the mob in real-life protests as a means of evading personal culpability while having a high chance of being able to get away with violent/criminal acts. There's definitely a huge overlap with militant anarchist/Communist/leftist groups who treat Trans Rights as political dogma (see the InRangeTV/Karl Kasarda thread). They are likely to accept, inspire and train people who might go on to be the next tranny mass shooter but they will never claim responsibility or direct involvement.
3. You have socially-isolated outcasts who cling to trans identity as a means of escapism from their personal circumstances, but otherwise have very fragile ties to the rest of society or even the Trans Rights movement at large and would be the most willing to perpetrate random, mass violence due to really having nothing to lose. These are your Audrey Hales and your Randy Stairs. I would hesitate to tie them to the Trans Rights movement in general due to the fact that they share similarities with other non-politically motivated perpetrators of random mass violence, and indeed should be treated similarly to the rest of them. This isn't to discount the influence of Trans Activism on their eventual galvanization to committing their crimes, but instead to belabor the point that those could almost be tangential to their real motivations. Something is very, very wrong with American society in general and eliminating the threat of Trans Activism-aligned violence could reduce the chance of one of these people snapping, but there is no guarantee.
I think I essentially agree, but I think Cotton is also saying that this event could inspire the #1 category on your list to more extreme actions, and I agree with that too.
I am thinking of Ted Kaczynski as an example. I read his writings, and I would say he fits very well in your #3 category.
He inspired others by his means and measures, ie anonymous murder, and bombings in particular. Arguably similar to Columbine. These were not limited to environmentalists. The most obvious example I can think of is bombings of abortion clinics. I think I agree that these perpetrators were probably psychologically attracted to the idea of bombing people (or shooting crowds of people) and latched on to an ideology as a reason to do it.
But at the same time, it appears that the Unabomber inspired his particular cause of environmentalism, to more extreme actions. It appears to me that the environmental movement has become increasingly violent, but that the MSM has become increasingly sympathetic to their cause and increasingly apologetic of their violence. I see the same trend with "BLM".
Admittedly, most of that organized (i.e. non-lone-wolf) extremism is destruction of property and not murder. Maybe that's the key difference. So maybe:
[3] Other mass shooters will claim the troon movement as their motivation, but maybe they would have done it anyway.
[1] The media and government response to this mass shooting, will embolden the troon movement to be more extreme and more violent, but more likely by destruction of property and anti-social disruptions, and not necessarily murder.