Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Fucking watermark literally obscures the explosion. I hate people who taint raw footage with their feces for "rep."
I am guessing they are doing it in hopes of selling the raw footage to MSM for money.
If they don't watermark then someone else will.

Possibly retaliation for the cafe bombing.

I assume that Russia intends to take Odessa eventually, but RN everything is seems to revolve around the Ukrainian spring offense and how/if that goes off.
They could also just be hitting supply houses and infrastructure needed to support the spring offensive that has been telegraphed to shit.
 

Quick Update in the Bakhmut Front - April 3rd, 2023​

Wagner PMC units have now captured half of Central Bakhmut​

  • Following withdrawal of troops of Armed Forces of Ukraine to the western parts of the district, Wagner PMC units from the North and South sides of the city have finally linked up in Central Bakhmut via the Komarovka microdistrict, an area bordering the Bakhmutovka River composed of commie-blocks, stores, and industrial buildings. As a result, they captured the entire riverbank of Central Bakhmut, making it safe for Wagnerites in East Bakhmut to cross safely across the river into Central Bakhmut. In addition, the frontline is now shortened, allowing Wagner PMC units to push through Central Bakhmut in the west harder.
  • Wagner units have captured more areas of the AZOM industrial complex in the North Bakhmut, the most fortified area in the city, with most of the complex under Russian control. They have also advanced in Northwest Bakhmut (or Selyshche District) up to Rose Alley, capturing many blocks and buildings along the way. They have also advanced further in the South-Central Bakhmut (Avangard District) forcing the AFU to withdraw, as well as launching an assault in Southwest Bakhmut (Vodokanal District).
  • With the capture of government buildings by Wagner PMC units such as City Hall, Prigozhin stated that Russia has legally captured the city.

Central Bakhmut

Suriyak
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Weeb Union
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Sources​

Conclusions​

 
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Little off topic but is Navalny really a major player in Russian politics? He was shilled that way so I just assumed he is some literal who journos attacking corruption. The way glowies talk about him sold me on the idea he is a massive patsy and would be as bad as Yeltsin was, especially since they're shilling his family now to remind people he exists.
 
People. You have to stop reading about war and violence. Shit absolutely buttblasts you into madness like it did with me. Ukraine lives rent free in my head now and all I can do is avoid these topics. Don’t even think about this shit it will take years off your life. I just came back after a month and I’m still completely buck broken. I hate this so much.

No offense but your username and profile picture alludes to a gay deathfat riding a nigger cock (or pooping, can't tell). If you can wear that as your identity, I'm pretty sure you can stomach this war.

Just sit back, relax, and wait for the inevitable Russian victory simply due to manpower attrition. (Unless NATO puts boots on the ground which they probably won't because that gives an opening for China to do the same.)

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(stolen from 4chan, seemed appropriate)
 
Little off topic but is Navalny really a major player in Russian politics? He was shilled that way so I just assumed he is some literal who journos attacking corruption. The way glowies talk about him sold me on the idea he is a massive patsy and would be as bad as Yeltsin was, especially since they're shilling his family now to remind people he exists.
He has no moral values and would sell his own grandmother for a bit of cash and power. He's backed by GAYTO because he's Putin's opposition. If he got into power, he would do more damage than a nuke to Moscow.
 
I can't even imagine this spring offensive now. I really feel bad for the grunts on the ground. Russia has had advanced warning of this offensive for a long time, where it might occur and time to shore up defenses. I would NOT want to be part of this offensive.

Russia isn't even moving at all in anticipation for the offensive. It might never come at this rate, and I hope for the Ukrainians it doesn't, because going at entrenched Russian positions after exhausting so much at Bakhmut...christ.
It sounds like utter insanity. How many of these men are actually fresh soldiers? How many have already been battered and wounded who will be forced to now attack fortified Russian positions after weeks warning of this supposed offensive?
 
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Little off topic but is Navalny really a major player in Russian politics? He was shilled that way so I just assumed he is some literal who journos attacking corruption. The way glowies talk about him sold me on the idea he is a massive patsy and would be as bad as Yeltsin was, especially since they're shilling his family now to remind people he exists.
My Russian friends, mostly millennials, think well of him and hate Putin, but Russia's not exactly the best place to live even under the best of rulers. His political positions as of now are pretty vague, and what he's said in the past indicates he's an ethnonationalist who seems against the multiethnic federation aspect of the Russian Federation, so he's pretty far from the political mainstream.
 
It sounds like utter insanity. How many of these men are actually fresh soldiers? How many have already been battered and wounded who will be forced to now attack fortified Russian positions after weeks warning of this supposed offensive?
I don't know, last I heard they were still sending supplies and men into Bakhmut. So I'm guessing it'll be a push towards that? Since pushing towards Crimea is a fucking suicide mission, but it wouldn't surprise me for them to try and do that.
 
My Russian friends, mostly millennials, think well of him and hate Putin, but Russia's not exactly the best place to live even under the best of rulers. His political positions as of now are pretty vague, and what he's said in the past indicates he's an ethnonationalist who seems against the multiethnic federation aspect of the Russian Federation, so he's pretty far from the political mainstream.
So in other words, he'd be the perfect choice for those lunatics that want to break up the Russian Federation in to a bunch of tiny (and more easily controlled and exploited) states.
 
As if the Amercians don't already have nukes in Europe.

Kaliningrad is full of nukes and is farther west than Belarus. The performative squealing by the West is hilarious

Russians are probably using the Su-34s in their proper role as a bomber, and the ukies only come up to shoot them down and ignore dedicated fighter aircraft. North Vietnamese did something similar with their aircraft against US aircraft. Ukies are also probably controlling their pilots actions from the ground as well, just as the NVAF did during the Vietnam war. Which would explain the inability to adapt to new Russian tactics.
And then Col. Robin Olds trolled the NVAF by having F-4s fly the same flight profile and they smoked a shitload of MiGs. (See "Operation Bolo"). Wouldn't surprise me in the UAF ran into some Flankers and got trounced.


Also
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Russia is sort of hampered by the grain agreement but it was only four months, and both parties have to agree to renew it. When Russia refuses to do so then that's when they might make a move towards Odessa.

If their grand strategy is to (buck) break the Ukrainians via attrition, they don't have to invade at all, just have Zelensky hand it over once he signs what they tell him to sign.

I can't even imagine this spring offensive now. I really feel bad for the grunts on the ground. Russia has had advanced warning of this offensive for a long time, where it might occur and time to shore up defenses. I would NOT want to be part of this offensive.

Russia isn't even moving at all in anticipation for the offensive. It might never come at this rate, and I hope for the Ukrainians it doesn't, because going at entrenched Russian positions after exhausting so much at Bakhmut...christ.
I can imagine an offensive. It honestly makes a fair bit of sense under the circumstances:

-Ukraine is wholly dependent on the West to stay in this fight, and the West's will is eroding as problems mount at home. They need to put some kind of win to reassure their sugar daddies that they still have it.

-Bahkmut is the gateway to several points in the chewy center. Losing it significantly lengthens Ukraine's defensive line and makes them vulnerable to the counterpunch if they try to go on the offensive after losing it. So they need to move sooner rather than later, because if Bahkmut falls or Russian aviation/ standoff weapons wear them down too much their window may have closed forever.

-A counter offensive could potentially save Bahkmut, whether it's by engaging and destroying the forces there directly, forcing them to rotate resources to other regions, or forcing them to fall back to avoid encirclement. It's reasonable to assume that if they were confident in their ability to hang on (whether strategically or politically) after abandoning the city, they would have. Recall that the Russians used the same tactic - lose slowly enough to allow your fallback line to be secured- at Lyman.

-The Russians are acting in anticipation of an offensive, it's just the non-telegenic stuff like digging ditches and pouring concrete.

As I see it, Ukraine's options are "try a hail Mary offensive and probably lose" and "stay on the defensive and definitely lose." If I'm reading the tea leaves right, they will have a window of opportunity soon, after the first tranche of MBTs arrives, to strike from a position of relative strength.
 
Right. Sure. Uh-hu. You don't say.

I read an article two days ago with the headline along the lines of "From Secret Bunker, Ukraine Sees Themselves Winning Bakhmut." Then the next day Wagner took the administrative building and control over central Bakhmut. I tried to find the article but I can no longer find it.
 
I read an article two days ago with the headline along the lines of "From Secret Bunker, Ukraine Sees Themselves Winning Bakhmut." Then the next day Wagner took the administrative building and control over central Bakhmut. I tried to find the article but I can no longer find it.
We're literally at the Downfall stage of "Ultimate Victory"
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I can't even imagine this spring offensive now. I really feel bad for the grunts on the ground. Russia has had advanced warning of this offensive for a long time, where it might occur and time to shore up defenses. I would NOT want to be part of this offensive.

Russia isn't even moving at all in anticipation for the offensive. It might never come at this rate, and I hope for the Ukrainians it doesn't, because going at entrenched Russian positions after exhausting so much at Bakhmut...christ.
It sounds like utter insanity. How many of these men are actually fresh soldiers? How many have already been battered and wounded who will be forced to now attack fortified Russian positions after weeks warning of this supposed offensive?
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Rumor is the Ukraine is planning to throw around 80,000 troops (including NATO-trained soldiers) with NATO weaponry at Artemovsk. Since it's snowing again I have no idea when or how, especially if the latest Wunderwaffen is still in transit. Also no idea where these 80k troops are coming from.
 
Possible Happening Alert (just observation, no news published about this):

Abruptly, in the last ~40 hours, the Russian government has sent a significant fleet of cargo aircraft in quick succession to Hangzhou, China. This includes (at a minimum, ATIS-B transponders got turned off by most of them at some point)
  • 9+ Il-76s
  • 5+ Tu-204s (freighter)
  • 1 An-124
Registration has varied between them as 'Rossiya - Special Flight Squadron' (ICAO:RSD) or between big state-contracted cargo airlines Aviastar-TU & Volga-Dnepr Airlines, who've filled a similar role in this war as a transporter to Kalitta Air has on the US side, being the cargo airline flying all Ukraine aid from the US to Rzeszów, Poland.

These are all big cargo aircraft, the Il-76s specifically being a military heavy machinery transport aircraft. None of these planes had visited China at any point in the last year; this is an explosion of activity. All planes began return flights to Russia within 12h.

What's the purpose for the Russian government to send all these heavy cargo planes to China, and return to Russia on the same day?

A couple screenshots from a few minutes ago; unfortunately don't have any from earlier over the past 2 days. Bonus, a Tu-204 used for transporting Russian govt. members currently heading into Belarus from Moscow.
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