Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[make_it_so]

peeking in on the other thread:
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"fortress of unassailable truth" is a statement that is usually used by individuals that have extreme difficulty with objective analysis and use blind faith as a crutch. And "stinky" is an insult usually used by juvenile children whole higher brain functions haven't kicked in yet.

We should have a wager of who does a better job of predicting the month-to-month timeline of events. Technically we have enough commentary on hand to already do so, but trawling the archives is a level of spite I'm indifferent to.

Wow, way to completely misread what people have been saying there, Mindless.

One thing I noticed and someone else brought up as well: There is no talk of air defences. The intel sheet is completely disregarding russian aviation, be it fixed wing or rotary. It's like they expect them to not fly at all, for some reason.

I also noticed it listed no air defense units for accompanying the Ukrainian offensive formations (unless I missed them), even though Ukraine has been provided with Avenger and Croatale SP-SAM systems.

The worst possible explanation I can think of is that because the planners of this have never had to contend with air defense or hostile air assets for about 20 years, they didn't even consider them. I would hope the the guys putting this together wouldn't be that incompetent, but...

 

[JoseRaulChupacabra]

Especially interesting is picture number 6. It displays exactly how much equipment is supposed to be used in the incoming ukrainian offensive. 12 brigades "combat credible" total, which in peacetime relates to 40-50 thousand troops. That isn't shocking in on itself, what's shocking is the list of the equipment to be used by them. I'll list it out:
- 43 T-64 MBTs
- 90 BMP-1 IFVs
- 20 AS-90 SPArty piece
- 10 2S1 SPArty piece
- 99 M2 Bradley IFVs
- 28 T-55S MBTs
- 60 D-30 Arty guns
- 16 M109 SPArty piece
- 32 Leopards 2a6
- 20 CVRTs, most likely older
- 18 FH70 Arty guns
- 38 T-72 MBTs
- 14 AMX tank destroyers
- 100 M113 APCs
- 20 XA185 APCs
- 31 PT-91 MBTs
- 90 Stryker APCs
- 40 Marder APCs
- 14 Challenger MBTs
- 24 M119 arty piece
And 53 unknown tanks.
MRAPS are omitted as they don't bring much combat value.

So they're really going for that Stalingrad counter offensive thing. The next few months ought to be entertaining.

Unnamed analyst, likely a Pentagon schlub, and "appear" meaning "ok but idk looks like it could be modified" just means that the numbers regarding dead holhols are worse than they let on and Russia's casualties are not as bad as they claim.

Oops.

The more they lie, the more it becomes obvious. These people ever heard of playing it cool?

Buy yeah, WE TOTALLY KILLED 200K RUSSIANS is untrue according to these documents. Which I mean you have to be a fucking retard to believe.

Or a boomer. The boomers I know are just completely plugged in to this, watching TTS videos on youtube on their smart TVs all saying the same message. Russians are receiving much higher casualties than Ukrainians! They're out of ammo! Bakhmut may have fallen but, Russia for sure paid a heavier price than Ukraine did.

 

[MrJokerRager]

Saint Elon has noticed this leak.

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/0ORs0

 

[Feline Supremacist]

i wonder if this will be the event that wakes people up to this grand delusion going on?

They have to wait for the signal from WaPo or the NYT although the article I posted is nearly there. Not quite, but soon.

peeking in on the other thread:
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"fortress of unassailable truth" is a statement that is usually used by individuals that have extreme difficulty with objective analysis and use blind faith as a crutch. And "stinky" is an insult usually used by juvenile children whole higher brain functions haven't kicked in yet.

We should have a wager of who does a better job of predicting the month-to-month timeline of events. Technically we have enough commentary on hand to already do so, but trawling the archives is a level of spite I'm indifferent to.

Bruh. They are declaring their dislike for what they perceive as Russian cat hegemony, their support for the persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and a hagiographic post about the Azov Battalion's Nazi philosophy as well as complaining that we post more often than they do, omitting this thread has more views. We don't need to wager; like this conflict it's a forgone conclusion who would win (us).

Saint Elon has noticed this leak.

View attachment 5002562

lmao ha ha that settles it, the leak is 100% accurate.

 

[I faked the autism]

peeking in on the other thread:
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That user is hilarious.
>I've read snopes and a wikipedia article about armored vehicles I'm an expert weapons systems engineer
Le armchair Lockheed Martin engineer.
>Zelensky is bravely defending bahkmut
The current status of bahkmut
>Picture related

>2 more weeks until uaf counter offensive

Zelensky needs some more aide for his wife's new Lamborghini and resort cottage in Delaware
ammunition and medical kits.

 

[make_it_so]

Saint Elon has noticed this leak.

Sadly appropriate, since the West today greatly resembles the authoritarian "democracy" that was the Alliance

lmao ha ha that settles it, the leak is 100% accurate.

If so, this may prove to be one of the greatest intelligence and security fiascos of the 21st century.

 

[borsabil]

The worst possible explanation I can think of is that because the planners of this have never had to contend with air defense or hostile air assets for about 20 years, they didn't even consider them. I would hope the the guys putting this together wouldn't be that incompetent, but...

The offensive is not expected to succeed. The Ukrainian soldiers will fight bravely, as they've done throughout. The Russians will let them advance and shell the ever living fuck out of them as they've done throughout. It will end it with thousands of dead UA. So if it seems poorly planned, under manned and equiped that's because it's a gay media driven op to keep western politicians happy and has nothing to do with gaining strategic advantage, capturing territory or driving the Russians to the bargaining table. It's disgusting that so many lives will be thrown away when it's now abundantly clear that the people responsible know it's a lost cause before they even start. Fucking war criminals

The thing is, from what I understand, those numbers are actually pretty close to what the Mossad has estimated to be the respective Russian and Ukrainian losses in this war. And if there is one intelligence service on this Earth who has a pretty airtight record on being right...

The numbers from Mossad are the CIA numbers, where do you think the Israelis got them from?

The Ukrainian KIA will be based on Ukrainian gov data, to put down anything else in a briefing PP would be all kinds of no. So the 70 odd K is what the Ukies are telling the burgers about their losses, and they're of course lying. The Russian numbers will be a CIA estimate based on whatever. IOW this is the absolute best case for the Ukrainians, it's possible it's a lot, lot worse. How will normies cope with the new paradigm and everything they've been told about the war is a lie? Same way they did with everything else over the past few years, cope, seethe, ignore move on to next thing.

 

[SIMIΔN]

One thing I noticed and someone else brought up as well: There is no talk of air defences. The intel sheet is completely disregarding russian aviation, be it fixed wing or rotary. It's like they expect them to not fly at all, for some reason.

Enemy tanks are easy to confirm disabled/destroyed with binoculars
Planes far in the sky that aren't, as the potential wreckage could fall into the sea, or deep in enemy territory.

As for the air defence situation, remember conventional SEAD is impossible when the tracking radar is located in a "neutral" NATO country. Further away from the border, they have to ping with their own detectable radar, and thus are far easier to take out. I assume the lack of heavy high-altitude AA is because it won't be worth the risk, when mobile systems can still force the Russian AF to fly higher than optimally lethal.

That's me being optimistic, if I was a pessimist, then a NATO "No fly zone" during the offensive couldn't happen at a worst time for Russia.

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

Enemy tanks are easy to confirm disabled/destroyed with binoculars
Planes far in the sky that aren't, as the potential wreckage could fall into the sea, or deep in enemy territory.

As for the air defence situation, remember conventional SEAD is impossible when the tracking radar is located in a "neutral" NATO country. Further away from the border, they have to ping with their own detectable radar, and thus are far easier to take out. I assume the lack of heavy high-altitude AA is because it won't be worth the risk, when mobile systems can still force the Russian AF to fly higher than optimally lethal.

That's me being optimistic, if I was a pessimist, then a NATO "No fly zone" during the offensive couldn't happen at a worst time for Russia.

I'm sorry my man but I can't understand what you're trying to say.

 

[make_it_so]

That's me being optimistic, if I was a pessimist, then a NATO "No fly zone" during the offensive couldn't happen at a worst time for Russia.

A NATO "No fly zone" means World War III, and anyone who thinks otherwise is an imbecile.

 

[YumeNoHero]

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>fortress of unassailable truth
More like schizophrenics concentration camp tbh and a boring one at that. Any news they posted there, I can just turn on NHK or TBS channels and listen to the same thing because surprise surprise, they regurgitate stuff from western media outlets as well, just without the armchair generals telling me how Ukraine can totally win this and own Putler.

On the supposed Ukraine counter offensive, I think they can stand a decent chance if their media could just shut the fuck up about it and let Ukraine take Russia by surprise instead of hyping it all over the place.

 

[SIMIΔN]

I'm sorry my man but I can't understand what you're trying to say.

Air defences rely on at least one RADAR emitter to track targets.


SEAD uses anti-radiation missiles to destroy RADAR emitters and thus disabling the launcher

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defenses

If the RADAR array is safely in another country, then it is a tough job tracking the launcher itself.

A NATO "No fly zone" means World War III, and anyone who thinks otherwise is an imbecile that deserves to be shot.

Giving the Ukranians long-range weapons risks WW3, directly blowing up Nordstream risked escalation. In all likelihood, NATO wouldn't be that stupid, but that possibility could still be on the table.

 

[Yak-130 Mitten]

Air defences rely on at least one RADAR emitter to track targets.
View attachment 5002749

SEAD uses anti-radiation missiles to destroy RADAR emitters and thus disabling the launcher

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Suppression_of_Enemy_Air_Defenses

If the RADAR array is safely in another country, then it is a tough job tracking the launcher itself.

Giving the Ukranians long-range weapons risks WW3, directly blowing up Nordstream risked escalation. In all likelihood, NATO wouldn't be that stupid, but that possibility could still be on the table.

Okay, now it makes sense.

Problem is that ukrainian air defenses are not compatible with NATO equipment. They require their own radars. And I am not even talking about long range, I am talking about short-range, intermediate air defenses to defend local concentration areas. Vehicles like Gepard, Shilka, Pantsir.

 

[01169]

Two thirty in the fucking morning in a major metropolitan area.

While I agree with the gist of your post you can't generalize it like that. There's definitely metropolitan areas and major cities where it's no problem to walk around at 2:30am.

 

[Halmaz]

How will normies cope with the new paradigm and everything they've been told about the war is a lie? Same way they did with everything else over the past few years, cope, seethe, ignore move on to next thing.

I am curious about this too. I know NPC programming can be completely rewritten, but this is significantly harder to back out of, than say Covid. They were just able to sell the idea, that the virus got less dangerous, because almost everyone was a good goy and took the shots, plus "we were lucky" that the virus evolved to be less lethal. No one can really verify or deny any of this, as normies have no equipment/knowledge, to inspect the virus on their own. Still, there are some true believers left, whom are deathly afraid of the virus and cannot comprehend why daddy government stopped enforcing the lockdowns and mask mandates.
Hiding the fact that a war has been lost, is not easy, it cannot be just explained away. I expect a lot of anger and resentment towards the tptb, from the pro-ukie side, if Ukraine loses.

 

[Just Some Other Guy]

Oh man. 32 Leopard 2s and 14 Challengers. Truly a war winning force right there.

 

[Betonhaus]

I am curious about this too. I know NPC programming can be completely rewritten, but this is significantly harder to back out of, than say Covid. They were just able to sell the idea, that the virus got less dangerous, because almost everyone was a good goy and took the shots, plus "we were lucky" that the virus evolved to be less lethal. No one can really verify or deny any of this, as normies have no equipment/knowledge, to inspect the virus on their own. Still, there are some true believers left, whom are deathly afraid of the virus and cannot comprehend why daddy government stopped enforcing the lockdowns and mask mandates.
Hiding the fact that a war has been lost, is not easy, it cannot be just explained away. I expect a lot of anger and resentment towards the tptb, from the pro-ukie side, if Ukraine loses.

A lot of parallels to the Afghanistan fiasco, but this time the narrative was pushed that we all have to suffer a little to ensure that Ukraine wins. I don't know how happy Europe will be after having committed so much resources and having the nord stream blown up

 

[870EVO]

Russia is moving ICBMs 38km from Finlands border after the announcement of Finland joining NATO

https://twitter.com/ricwe123/status/1644153216928497666

https://ghostarchive.org/archive/rvMQe

But what do you expect from a member of the International Socialist Youth, and WEF Young leaders program.

 

[Secret Asshole]

@Yak-130 Mitten that collection of various vehicles has to be a complete and total logistical nightmare. Just from MBT's and tank destroyers alone will require 105mm ammunition, 125mm ammunition, and 120mm ammunition. In fact, make that two types of 120mm ammunition since the British Challengers still use HESH rather than the NATO standard.

It is clearly being done to assure the West hasn't wasted its money and political capital (it has) on this pointless fucking money pit and to get some good propaganda going. This entire war has been propaganda by the West, and it has cost them economically.

They have to wait for the signal from WaPo or the NYT although the article I posted is nearly there. Not quite, but soon.

Bruh. They are declaring their dislike for what they perceive as Russian cat hegemony, their support for the persecution of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church and a hagiographic post about the Azov Battalion's Nazi philosophy as well as complaining that we post more often than they do, omitting this thread has more views. We don't need to wager; like this conflict it's a forgone conclusion who would win (us).

lmao ha ha that settles it, the leak is 100% accurate.

I mean I checked in and they're saying Russia is genociding Ukranians and replacing them with Asians. But whatever, I'm just glad this shit is portioned.

Yup, turns out they are. Not fucking good, but too late. Besides the Russians were prepping tons of anti armor. Its going to be bloody as hell. All for the sake of propaganda. Jesus fucking christ.

 

[Harambe]

It's kind of depressing to me to go over and see their opinions over there, sometimes it's posters I like saying dumb shit. Makes me force myself to take a step back and remember how little I (and almost certainly the boys over there) have at stake in the matter.