Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[freight]

Lots more info on the leaks now. Turns out it was originally leaked in some obscure discord server as early as March 2 and then made its way to some youtuber's discord and then on to some minecraft discord server. Some kid named Lucca is being anally probed at a black site somewhere about now. Original source of the leak is still not known. Probably has no impact on any upcoming offensive, but someone probably leaked actual top secret shit on a discord server for dick tugs. Story is laid out a bit more in the following twitter threads, expect news articles soon.

Aric Toler twitter thread part 1
Archive of part 1

Aric Toler twitter thread part 2 because of a deleted tweet breaking the flow
Archive of part 2

Relevant sub-thread 1 showing leaks
Archive of sub-thread 1

Relevant sub-thread 2 showing leaks
Archive of sub-thread 2

Various pics from the threads showing discord screencaps:

Spoiler

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the only appropriate response to getting caught leaking classified pentagon info

idk how legal it is to post these infographics tbh but the casualty analysis mostly corresponds to the opensource data already available.

UKR and RUS casualties are similar, however RUS takes far more KIA
UKR airforce destroyed at the beginning of the war.
also RUS armored vehicles litterally half depleted lmao

 

[Elämällä on väliä]

Probably has no impact on any upcoming offensive, but someone probably leaked actual top secret shit on a discord server for dick tugs.

Not sure how teh toppa secrette works in US, but in EU it so fuckin' common that most of classified infos are just a collection on non-hidden data. Honestly - did this papers contain anything new? Maybye the info that ex-slovenian T-55 are still alive, I was sure that this barrels are rusting in field.

I said both images appear tampered with, just that the pro-russian image has fewer signs of tampering

And this is why many people are sure that you have a tumor in your head.

These are all valid criticisms of the "evidence" that you yourselves brought up when people were posting pictures of damaged Abrams and Leopards.

I think it was more about time: all that photo 'evidence' was surfacing BEFORE A SINGLE LEOPARD OR ABRAMS WAS SHIPPED TO UKRAINE.

. The say in the video that they asked the government for years to pay for it, but the government said no.

Paint me shocked. This is how in runs in many european countries:

'Hey gov., it is your citizen. I had a Important Landmark in my garden. Can you give few bucks to at least heat this thing up in winter? Or to repaint it?'
'Go fuck yoursefl weirdo'

Still its a good psyop that we saw something like that before the Kharkiv offensive

I see two options:

- this a total fake based on how such powerpoints looks in reality;
- this is a daily hand-out paper to regular personel of Pentagon. Not sure how it works in US, but Germoney MoD is in some way just a office with office workers (they aren't very intelligent, especially after VDL rule) and they must stay informed what is going on just to get the work done. Paper is stamped as top secret - and I don have a clue how US decides what is, and what isn't secret - but in gov. jobs nearly every single shit is in some way 'secret'. Mostly without reason, most of 'secret' material that I or my guys saw was just a collection of open data or easy accesible data.

For example, you can easily check who is in charge in company. You can also check in open sources who is owner of such company. Also where company resides.. In most EU countries we ave something named Grundbuch (easy accesible info about real property - who is owner, who was owner, mortgage and so one) so more data.

If a random guy collects all of mentioned above sources, copy-paste crucial info into MS Word and create a .pdf it will not be a top secret. But if any body of gov. do that such .pdf will be in most cases called a 'confidential data' and you will be thrown into one cage with Harambe if you leak this.

idk how legal it is to post these infographics tbh but the casualty analysis mostly corresponds to the opensource data already available.

As above, most of gov. anal work is just collecting, checking and compiling open data.

Real secrets (not only 'we know where UFO landed and have sex with Hitler' is of course also 'top secret', but it had also restricted reprdocue - I mean it is not handled to everyone in room like this powerpoint.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

I'm astonished by the fact that Peterson of all people is carrying water for the regime that succeeded Stalin, it's mind-boggling.

Peterson is a big advocate for Solzhenitsyn's The Gulag Archipelago, is he not? Solzhenitsyn praised Putin (as well as criticizing him on the appointment of governors, instead of their election) shortly before his death:

As he had in a 2007 Der Spiegel interview, Solzhenitsyn positively contrasted the eight-year reign of Putin with those of Gorbachev and Yeltsin, which he said had "added to the damage done to the Russian state by seventy years of Communist rule." Under Putin, the nation was re-discovering what it was to be Russian, Solzhenitsyn thought, although he acknowledged that many problems remained; among them poverty and the widening gap between rich and poor.

Solzhenitsyn being opposed to Ukraine becoming a member of NATO:

He was critical of plans to move Ukraine closer to NATO, although he didn't belabor the point.

And he did not accept that the Holodomor was a genocide against Ukrainians.

on April 2, Solzhenitsyn joined the debate here about the famine in Ukraine in a brief article published in Izvestiya. In it, he recalls the 1921 famine that stalked the Urals and rejects the notion that the 1932 - 1933 famine was a an act of "genocide" against the Ukrainian people.#

All from the Wikileaks of the then US ambassador to Russian, William Burns, visiting Solzhenitsyn at his dacha in April 2008 (the same year of the latter's death).

https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/08MOSCOW932_a.html

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/02/wikileaks-cables-solzhenitsyn-vladimir-putin

Not to mention Solzhenitsyn's reactionary sympathies in general, which Peterson would sympathize with, considering his own admiration for the similarly reactionary Dostoevsky's works.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

No, but someone in /r/NonCredibleDefense noted that the DoD has referred to them as 'Vagner' in 2020:

Archive

Hmmm as dumb as it is maybe it's translator/analyst who speaks Russian but knows fuckall about history and had no idea whom the name references, or just doesn't understand why it would be spelled the way it is in German.

Now that I think on it, using "Vagner" is exactly something this one mutual friend/dumb bitch I know would do, who holds at least TS clearance; and she works for Booz Allen doing secret squirrel analystics & PowerPoint purpose-pyramids for the Pentagon, including stuff with Ukraine. If someone else is using "Vagner" in those slides, they'd have to be as stupid as she is.

tl;dr: this cunt cucked her enlisted (ex)husband for a Frog Air-Force officer/Rafale pilot, while he was training with the Navy down in Jacksonville. During that time she managed to get her company-provided laptop & attache case stolen from her car at their hotel, and yet she somehow didn't lose her job, or security clearance.

 

[siegemeister675]

I think that's an alternative transliteration that's more phonetic. Wagner is the more accurate translation in terms of context.

Otherwise you might read it as Wag-ner if you speak English.

It's not accurate at all, Wagner is a German name not a Russkie one. The long-standing tradition in English is to reproduce German words and names as is, no one writes "Nietsche" for "Nietzsche." The person who did this is either unaware it's a German name (of a very famous German, Richard Wagner the classical composer, that's why they call the PMC "the orchestra") or has never seen the name written in English and realized it's referring to the same thing.

 

[DumbDude43]

Hmmm as dumb as it is maybe it's translator/analyst who speaks Russian but knows fuckall about history and had no idea whom the name references, or just doesn't understand why it would be spelled the way it is in German.

spelling it 'vagner' was probably just the easiest way to get americans to pronounce it correctly

 

[freight]

spelling it 'vagner' was probably just the easiest way to get americans to pronounce it correctly

prigozhin himself doesn’t pronounce it germanically, he pronounces it with a russian hypercorrected w. like burgers actually did have it right but they hyper hypercorrected it to a V to avoid gender reassignment

i might be wrong actually, i recall in one of the original prison recruitment videos he pronounced Wagner with a hard W but i might be retarded

no he says Wagner!

 

[MG-34]

spelling it 'vagner' was probably just the easiest way to get americans to pronounce it correctly

It's never really an issue in the DoD. I seldom heard people refer to VDV as "veh deh veh" for example.

 

[mindlessobserver]

idk how legal it is to post these infographics tbh but the casualty analysis mostly corresponds to the opensource data already available.

It's very illegal, and considering how much scrutiny the Farms is under I would hard caution against any archives of marked TS documents directly to the Kiwifarms servers. Links only @Null

The reason for this is the "Top Secret" marking is the warning flag to the reader as to whether or not they are allowed to even look at this shit, and if you don't have the clearance the answer is no. The US government can and has fucked people over a barrel for this, even if they obtained the material second hand from an open source.

 

[siegemeister675]

idk how legal it is to post these infographics tbh but the casualty analysis mostly corresponds to the opensource data already available.

UKR and RUS casualties are similar, however RUS takes far more KIA
UKR airforce destroyed at the beginning of the war.
also RUS armored vehicles litterally half depleted lmao

Russian MOD also IMO differentiates between Wagner, DNR &LNR slave militias and actual AFR troops. I wouldn't be surprised if the photoshopped version reflects what the Russian MOD sees as their own actual casualties.

It's never really an issue in the DoD. I seldom heard people refer to VDV as "veh deh veh" for example.

Perun does that and he's always right tho.

 

[NSJAP]

k/d ratio in Bahmut is 1 to 1 "at best". From the Strelkov itself

 

[Ghostse]

If this is real, I am pretty MATI that a Joint Staff powerpoint presentation has to have a LITERAL GUIDE on what the various symbols mean. Do the fucking illiterates in the JOINT STAFF and the various intelligence agencies reading this not know the different between the symbol for a friendly Infantry Brigade and an enemy mechanized artillery battalion? This is like having a bunch of accountants who don't know how to use spreadsheets. wtf.

The audience is retarded civies or civi-adjacents.

Youtuber paid for satellite images of Russia's Tank storage.

TFW you have a better handle on Russia's armor inventory than Russian High Command.

Edit: He says about 1500 tanks have disappeared from the storage yards. Putin was bragging about producing 1500 tanks. I called out previously that probably refurbs (or just reactivations) and that looks correct.

I'm very curious about the significant number of T-80s that haven't budged.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Skynet is now....

This shit is both fascinating & terrifying. I can't think of any other technology which has fundamentally changed warfare, developed so intensely & adopted so quickly by literally everyone; except for maybe smokeless gunpowder (although it took a couple years for the rest of the world to catch up because France).

I gotta say though, business is good if you're into drones; and it's something that hasn't happened in a very long time.

Edit: as posted earlier, motorparks & depots around Crimea are noticably emptying, along with everywhere else in Russia.

But don't worry Z-bros, Uralvagonzavod is cranking out T-90s to the max.

 

[Trig.Point]

If Ukraine somehow manages to come out of this mostly intact. I can easily see it happening where Zelenskyy or whoever is leading the yooks is assassinated by Azov extremists as they push for and succeed in a hostile takeover and make a very Eastern European equivalent to the Taliban. Half this shit just reeks too much of the 'Brave Mujahideen' fighters from back when we were using them in Afghanistan against the Russians.

Zelenskyy put the Azov Bn back in their box early on in the War. The fact that he shut down a protest by the wives and families of the unit (trying to get him to agree to prisoner exchanges) shows that he's not afraid of them

They earned a reputation in 2014 for being of the few units that would actually fight, and in fairness to Zelenskyy he didn't thrown them under the bus when he came to power. Poroshenko had already rolled them into the Army and shut down their little independent fiefdom. So Zelenskyy standing by them (to an extent) made him look magnanimous rather than weak. In fact standing up to western media pressure about them probably helped show the public that he will say no to west.

The handful of MP's that used to support them are long gone. The only political capital they have is their reputation as a fighting force, and Zelenskyy seems to be in step with the wider Ukrainian public in just how much leeway that gets them.

I believe it was Estonia, predicted that Ukraine had the will and means to resist Russian aggression.

The UK seemed fairly confident that they were going to fight as well. They wouldn't have transported a huge chunk of the British Army's limited supply of Anti weapons to Ukraine it they hadn't. Solid Ukrainian diplomacy and the military working to maintain informal relationships with foreign Army's probably helped that. It also helped that the a lot of the ethnic Russians within the Ukrainian Army that played a role in preventing any sort of organized resistance in 2014, had left.

Ukraine was holding back in the Donbass for the last few years, not wanting to alienate western support by launching offensives. Putin ignorant fuck that he was mistook politics and the maintenance of international relationships as weakness.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

Man, after Ukraine wins maybe Azov can send some guys over here. Reading all the shit they're doing makes me fucking jealous, what with all our eeeevil rite wing militias and WN groups either having more infiltrators than members or being outright boogeymen who couldn't outfight a division of mall cops.

If this is real, I am pretty MATI that a Joint Staff powerpoint presentation has to have a LITERAL GUIDE on what the various symbols mean. Do the fucking illiterates in the JOINT STAFF and the various intelligence agencies reading this not know the different between the symbol for a friendly Infantry Brigade and an enemy mechanized artillery battalion? This is like having a bunch of accountants who don't know how to use spreadsheets. wtf.

This is the inevitable result of the public education system failing for decades. Shit may roll downhill but it also flows uphill; eventually some of the top people will be clowns because clowns made up the majority of the people who were in that promotion path.

We're seeing the same thing in my industry. College graduates who cannot do fucking anything they don't have a phone app for. And those are the ones who don't have nigger-grade work ethic and professionalism issues.

 

[Ghostse]

The UK seemed fairly confident that they were going to fight as well. They wouldn't have transported a huge chunk of the British Army's limited supply of Anti weapons to Ukraine it they hadn't. Solid Ukrainian diplomacy and the military working to maintain informal relationships with foreign Army's probably helped that. It also helped that the a lot of the ethnic Russians within the Ukrainian Army that played a role in preventing any sort of organized resistance in 2014, had left.

I think you're right about the Brits. I don't remember if the Brits called it before festivities kicked off, but they were posting assessments about Ukraine holding very early. I remember laughing them off as cope until the Kiev feint failed and vaunted 40 mile column got broken apart.

 

[CuzinEd]

Another Su-25 got shot down in Ukraine. The pilot ejects and pops his chute. Some people said he fell into the explosion from the bombs he dropped but I didn't see that. He seemed to land safely or as safe as you can when slowly falling out of the sky. Russia supposedly has a little less than 200 Su-25's. So far they have lost 30. But you have to take Russian numbers with a grain of salt. They lie about what they have and don't have. You can have 193 Su-25's but how many are operational is what matters. Probably less than 193 I would say.

Youtuber paid for satellite images of Russia's Tank storage.

You can have a tank but it has to be operational. Meaning it can actually be used. You can count tanks all day long but that won't tell you much other than the number of tanks. A lot of information is left out.

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k/d ratio in Bahmut is 1 to 1 "at best". From the Strelkov itself

Given how poorly the Russians have done I would say they have lost more. Usually the attacking force has higher casualties.

 

[Kreitani]

*sad trombone sounds*

 

[WhiteNight]

Anders Puck Nielsen has a new video arguing that the mobik force is near depletion:

I'm generally a fan of Puck's videos, but this one felt underwhelming. Perhaps it's more valuable to people not following the war as closely, since for me I've seen a lot of discussion of casualty figures and so there's not much new. He calculates a rough estimate of how long the conscript force will last, and admits that it is very rough, but still thinks it's a useful indicator. I'm not so sure; it makes a big difference whether the mobiks will all be burned through by tomorrow, or whether they could last through summer at current rates.

One comment he makes is that even with the lowest estimates Russia's losses are huge.

In any case, it's only 12 minutes so still worth checking out.

 

[freight]

It's very illegal, and considering how much scrutiny the Farms is under I would hard caution against any archives of marked TS documents directly to the Kiwifarms servers. Links only @Null

The reason for this is the "Top Secret" marking is the warning flag to the reader as to whether or not they are allowed to even look at this shit, and if you don't have the clearance the answer is no. The US government can and has fucked people over a barrel for this, even if they obtained the material second hand from an open source.

it’s all over war twitter by now and literal MSM front page news (reuters, NYT, etc) so i wouldn’t worry too much about it; plus there’s a pretty good chance it’s either well done fakes, US psyop for the oncoming offensive, or whatever

Russian MOD also IMO differentiates between Wagner, DNR &LNR slave militias and actual AFR troops. I wouldn't be surprised if the photoshopped version reflects what the Russian MOD sees as their own actual casualties.

idk if the infographic itself did, 150k - 200k casualties, 35k - 45k KIA for solely MoD command could easily be pumped up to 60k KIA and 250k casualties if the slave militias are included.