That seems overly optimistic. A lot of American industries have offshored the manufacturing of necessities to China, to to the point that many things that claim to be made in the USA are just several Chinese components assembled in America. America imports a LOT of stuff to China, and if imports suddenly halt America won't have the expertise or capacity to manufacture a significant portion of their daily imports. They might be able to buy some from other countries, but nobody else has the same manufacturing capacity and may just relable Chinese stuff at jacked up prices. Meanwhile China can start diverting exports to other countries, and has the capacity to unwind some operations or convert to producing goods used internally. With it's push to become the main trade currency for oil and gas it'll be able to get other countries to buy its debt like they did for America.
tl;dr: My point is the US and China both have guns leveled at each other's head, and pulling the trigger will be nearly as detrimental to the average human condition as nuclear exchange. No one want that.
The allocation of capital to China is a concern. But China lacks a lot of the specialized hardware and is still largely bulk. This dependence on China is why companies keep the "tour" factory in the states and are opening sublines in places that aren't China. If something happens with China, they can begin shifting production. The problem is China CAN'T divert production to other countries. No one consumes like US - there is no other comparible market. The US cuts off China and the Chinese economy grinds to a halt, the middle class implodes, and with chaos in the streets the people stop believing the CCP has the mandate of heaven.
Things are not great in the US, and I'm pretty sure the EPA stops being a functional entity, but in a couple years things are back on track.
regarding your Oil & Gas, remember that until Biden came and fucked it up, the US was net-exporting petrolium products*.
At lot of the economic theorizing is hard because it'd comes down to WHY both sides went full retard. If Sleepy Joe just forgets his meds and says being a chink is now illegal, the US is likely not going to find many allies who offer more than token support. Likewise if Winnie the Pooh goes on state TV and announced a new 10 year plan of "All Gweilos Must Hang", they will likely find themselves isolated.
Even a Taiwan invasion is hard to predict because it won't just be a bunch of PRA waking up one morning and being told they're going to a little swim. There will be a long chain of escalation where everyone will be trying to talk both sides out of fucking around because they don't want to find out. How both sides behave during that escalation, and the backroom deals made, will determine how things shake out.
Remember, no one wants this, so when you've got Tyrone and Demarcus beefing at the party, if you tell both of them 'Its not worth it, Nigga' and Tyrone actually starts to back down only for Demarcus to swing on him, you and the boys are going to jump Demarcus because he's clearly the crazy nigga.
Additionally, another thing to consider, is that nothing fuels an economy like total war (as long as the war isn't happening in your production center). If China decided to cut off the US, the US may just decide that War is Economics through other means and contest the blockade with its stock piles. The US has ICBMs that can target individual sidewalk tiles in China, China has MRBMs that - if the wind is just right - might reach San Fransisco.China has zero force projection and their logistics are awful.
*for the spergs: The US was still importing oil under existing agreements, but more product (diesel, gas, plastics, etc) was leaving the US. That is, if the imports stopped, the US was still producing enough to meet internal demand.
I was so confused, isn't he supposed to hold on to the grip
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Look at that nigga's Earpro.
