Chinese Military Operations in Taiwan

[FILTH Tourist]

Taiwan has maybe 200,000 total forces in its military (can't find clear numbers on this).

Keep in mind that Taiwan has a conscription program similar to SK. So if something does go down every male would at least have some idea on what to do (in theory at least).

Taiwan has a coast line of 973.1 miles, so assuming the soldiers are spread evenly out, that's about 21 soldiers per mile of coast line.

But is all that coastline strategically sound? Only a few parts would be able to support a massive landing with the terrain and nearby infrastructure.

This means if China does do an amphibious landing, there's a solid chance that not even a shot will actually be fired during the actual landings if China manages to catch them off guard, and because Taiwan has highways right next to most of its coast line, Chinese forces could very rapidly secure a large chunk of territory before Taiwanese forces even manage to mobilize.

Taiwan is surprisingly tiny and their army is spread out. There is no way that China could sneak in a landing party significant enough to hold a beachhead for the rest of the invasion.

The mountains of Taiwan really are a bigger terrain obstacle than the beaches.

The mountains split the country in two and thr Taiwanese army would control it. If they land on the west side they will be boxed be by Taiwanese troops to the north and south. If they land in the south and north then they would need to split their forces and march up the east and west sides. The only real key bits of infrastructure is the highway and railway that loops around the island (that will get destroyed) and small airports. It will be a slow and painful march. There was a reason why the Japanese were looking at maybe making a last stand in Taiwan and why the KMT moved there when they lost the war.

Taiwan will pull its forces back into the cities in hopes of China actually giving a fuck about collateral damage, though given the nature of insectoids, that probably wouldn't be a good idea.

A few of the cities would be a pain to capture like Taichung which is on the west side of the island and is the 2nd largest city in the country. It is also surrounded by mountains and you need to pass though it to get to Taipei. Again I want to emphasize that the mountains make Taiwan pretty narrow and the Chinese army would need to capture every city on the way north or south.

 

[quackrock]

Besides, wouldn't blowing up the chip plants harm the West a lot more than China, who can't buy any of that stuff anyway?

It is generally believed in the semiconductor industry that Taiwan would render its fabs useless if defeat were imminent. TSMC leaders have made public statements to this effect:

https://www.wired.com/story/i-saw-the-face-of-god-in-a-tsmc-factory/

“They call Taiwan the porcupine, right? It’s like, just try to attack. You may just blow the whole island up, but it will be useless to you,” Keith Krach, a former US State Department undersecretary, told me a few weeks before I left for Taiwan. TSMC’s chairman and former CEO, Mark Liu, has put it more concretely: “Nobody can control TSMC by force. If you take by military force, or invasion, you will render TSMC inoperative.” If a totalitarian regime forcibly occupied TSMC, in other words, its kaiser would never get its partner democracies on the phone. The relevant material suppliers, chip designers, software engineers, 5G networks, augmented-reality services, artificial-intelligence operators, and product manufacturers would block their calls. The fabs themselves would be bricked.

Having said this, I could imagine a naval blockade scenario in which no Chinese troops set foot on the Taiwan, a negotiated settlement is reached, and one condition of that settlement is the continued operation of TSMC.

 

[DDR Yoga]

If the US liberal rainbow machine is involved, I'm supporting the other team.

Viva Afghanistan!
Long live Iran!
China Akbar!
Hail Kim!

 

[SIMIΔN]

It is generally believed in the semiconductor industry that Taiwan would render its fabs useless if defeat were imminent. TSMC leaders have made public statements to this effect:

https://www.wired.com/story/i-saw-the-face-of-god-in-a-tsmc-factory/

Having said this, I could imagine a naval blockade scenario in which no Chinese troops set foot on the Taiwan, a negotiated settlement is reached, and one condition of that settlement is the continued operation of TSMC.

That's assuming no other country/company has killswitches in the machinery. And also assumes everyone will continue to supply an occupied Taiwan.

Once a beach head has been established, that's the end of the amphibious operations, and from that point on, pretty much any ship can be used to bring in more forces and equipment.

If they managed to capture an undamaged container port, and all of Taiwan and her allies' anti-ship missiles were somehow neutralised, then any ship would do.
But by that time, they would have somehow already won

 

[quackrock]

That's assuming no other country/company has killswitches in the machinery. And also assumes everyone will continue to supply an occupied Taiwan.

Turning off TSMC would be a huge hit to the global economy. We're talking appreciable quality of life decrease for billions, billions to trillions of dollars in lost revenue, and decades until capacity's ramped up outside Taiwan to meet demand.

If Taiwan's democratically-elected government is backed into a corner via naval blockade, they may be willing to negotiate. If they negotiate a treaty with mainland China that boils down to, say, Hong Kong-style reunification over an extended timeline, do you really think the West would shoot itself in the foot by remotely disabling TSMC?

 

[Extreme Crusader]

Are we gonna split this thread too because of 'muh feelings' or what?

 

[captkrisma]

Another city @FILTH Tourist forgot to mention is Kaohsiung. It's the third largest shipping port on earth and a very tasty looking target...if it also wasn't where Taiwan trains their infantry as well as a dense urban environment.

It would be akin to taking a mix of Fallujah and Fort Benning.

 

[SIMIΔN]

If Taiwan's democratically-elected government is backed into a corner via naval blockade, they may be willing to negotiate. If they negotiate a treaty with mainland China that boils down to, say, Hong Kong-style reunification over an extended timeline, do you really think the West would shoot itself in the foot by remotely disabling TSMC?

With all the suicidal gas sanctions Europe inflicted on itself because of Ukraine? Probably.
And democracy? the British/Americans wouldn't let Zelenskyy end the war with favourable terms in April.

 

[Rei is Shit.]

China has zero capability to ‘catch up’ to TSMC. This isn’t a problem solved by just throwing man power and resources into a ditch. This is a problem that requires what amounts to a Rube Goldberg machine with extreme precision. A lot of stuff in the process is only available from one or two companies, and those companies are explicitly barred from selling that stuff to China.

SMIC is running the third most advanced fab in the world right now, with 1st being TSMC and 2nd Samsung. They started volume production of 7nm ~3 years after TSMC.

 

[Male Idiot]

Have we really entered clown world?

It is chips. A 3 year shortage of mobile phones and tablets is not an apocalypse.

 

[Betonhaus]

Are we gonna split this thread too because of 'muh feelings' or what?

I did establish a safe space thread to go with this one but it's not being used yet. I presume discussion needs to pick up speed until it reaches a breaking point.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

Have we really entered clown world?

It is chips. A 3 year shortage of mobile phones and tablets is not an apocalypse.

If technology rolls back 10-15 years, the only ones who will suffer are terminally online bug people and feds who can't spy on people through their smartphones anymore. Nobody really needs 5G or augmented reality or other gay shit like that, most people can't tell the difference between a phone running a 7nm chip or a 14nm chip. Developers will have to learn to optimize their code again, can't just throw resources at it.

Other than that, there will be no noticeable effect. May even be beneficial for western society.

But realistically, SMIC will catch up in a few years.

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/china-chipmaker-smics-7nm-process-is-reportedly-copied-from-tsmc-tech

 

[Male Idiot]

That's what I think. People will not be able to get the iPhone iSnob 1 for a few years, as things catch up they will buy the iPhone iSnob 2 five years later at worst.

And ree on it how this was worse than the Mexico meteor impact that only wiped out the dinosaurs.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

That's what I think. People will not be able to get the iPhone iSnob 1 for a few years, as things catch up they will buy the iPhone iSnob 2 five years later at worst.

And ree on it how this was worse than the Mexico meteor impact that only wiped out the dinosaurs.

Most people run 14nm CPUs built with a process that is at least 10 years old and don't even notice it. Not having 10nm/7nm chips for a few years is a literal nothingburger.

Not having TSMC around would also make Samsung very, very happy.

 

[Tiny Chinaman]

Stupid retards actually think its a real country
Media worshiping faggots

 

[Harambe]

There's a few things I learned from my Russia-Ukraine speculation back in the day:
1) We are bad at guessing
2) We have no idea what leaders are thinking
3) Sanctions are performative bullshit and mean very little. People will not stop doing business with either party under any circumstance.
4) The US is run by incompetent retards, and time is not on the defender's side when they're backed by incompetent retards
5) Neither side is completely retarded and our only info about them is typically propaganda bullshit from certified retards and niggers

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

With all the suicidal gas sanctions Europe inflicted on itself because of Ukraine? Probably.
And democracy? the British/Americans wouldn't let Zelenskyy end the war with favourable terms in April.

Suicidal? Nothing happened at all, Europe managed them completely unscathed and has plenty of gas in storage, with prices back to historical levels and still dropping. Things are going so smoothly Germany shut down its remaining nuclear plants on schedule.

EU Natural Gas - 2023 Data - 2010-2022 Historical - 2024 Forecast - Price - Quote

Natural gas futures in Europe fell back to below €50 a megawatt-hour, after briefly rising to above €51 on Monday, and hedging close to €48.1 touched last week, which was the lowest intraday level since August 31st 2021. Temperatures are set to fall in the end of the month and wind speed is...

tradingeconomics.com

 

[Romeo]

Taiwan's Dilapidated Conscripts​

Keep in mind that Taiwan has a conscription program similar to SK. So if something does go down every male would at least have some idea on what to do (in theory at least).

However, Taiwanese conscription requires a service of four months, which means jackshit. Compare that to South Korea, which is a year and a half and over, and Singapore, which is two years. In fact, soldiers of the ROC only learn "basic stuff" and not tactics nor specialized training so the ROC Army is like incompetent as this point. It's to the point that Taipei's liberal mayor Ko Wen-je called conscription a waste of time and that Taiwan would not survive a war against China within two days.

Another thing is Taiwan's military is shrinking thanks to the low birth rate, which means less conscripts. The birth rate of 1.08 is lower than South Korea's notorious birth rate of 1.1 and Singapore's of 1.16. Even with China's infamous child policies, they have a birth rate of 1.3.

Sources:

• Archive - Taiwan's conscript military recruitment at lowest level in a decade due to low birth rate - The Straits Times
• Archive - Taiwan cuts compulsory military service to 4 months - Taiwan Today
• Archive - How Should Taiwan Fix Its Broken Conscription System? - The News Lens
• Archive - Weak Military Training Leaves Taiwanese Draftees Unprepared for War - The News Lens
• Archive - Taipei Mayor says serving in army a waste of time; defense minister responds - Taiwan News

Terrain of Taiwan​

The mountains split the country in two and thr Taiwanese army would control it. If they land on the west side they will be boxed be by Taiwanese troops to the north and south. If they land in the south and north then they would need to split their forces and march up the east and west sides. The only real key bits of infrastructure is the highway and railway that loops around the island (that will get destroyed) and small airports. It will be a slow and painful march. There was a reason why the Japanese were looking at maybe making a last stand in Taiwan and why the KMT moved there when they lost the war.

What map are you reading? The mountains cover the Center and the East of the island. All of Taiwan's main population centers and flatlands are in the West. The main expressways and the main railways are in the West. Literally all the PLA has to focus is on the West. The only city that is surrounded by mountains is Taipei, but the rest of the main cities are on flatlands. Plus, the mountains in the Center and East set up a good barrier against incursions from an American force from the Pacific Ocean.

 

[George Lucas]

SMIC is running the third most advanced fab in the world right now, with 1st being TSMC and 2nd Samsung. They started volume production of 7nm ~3 years after TSMC.

This is wrong. SMIC has a process supposedly similar to 7 nm but it doesn’t work anywhere near as well. Nobody cares about it. SMIC is a backup fab for old and low-powered designs.

Most people run 14nm CPUs built with a process that is at least 10 years old and don't even notice it. Not having 10nm/7nm chips for a few years is a literal nothingburger.

Not having TSMC around would also make Samsung very, very happy.

You do realize TSMC makes chips other than 7 nm right? It takes years to build a fab. Lost production will not be effectively replaced by competitors in time to prevent a crisis. Even discounting 7 nm’s impact, you have a major problem.

 

[Badungus Kabungus]

You do realize TSMC makes chips other than 7 nm right?

So do SMIC and Samsung. SMIC has been increasing production lately. If TSMC shits the bed and destroys all their factories, it only benefits China and SMIC.

https://www.gizmochina.com/2023/02/14/chinas-largest-semiconductor-smic-reports-record-revenue-us-china-tech-war/

SMIC is currently in the expansion phase and is making continuous high investments to increase its production capacity. The company’s capital expenditure stood at $6.35 billion in 2022. By the end of the year, the company had started production in its Shenzhen plant and had entered into a pilot production phase in the the Jingcheng factory. SMIC has already completed the construction of the main fab shell at the Liangang plant and has started the construction work for the new factory at Xiqing.

It takes years to build a fab. Lost production will not be effectively replaced by competitors in time to prevent a crisis. Even discounting 7 nm’s impact, you have a major problem.

We seem to have different ideas of what a crisis means. Having to pay more for slightly slower chips that come from Korea/China instead of Taiwan is not a crisis. People will not go hungry over this.