Chinese Military Operations in Taiwan

[SaidNoOneEver]

I'm still seeing people wearing masks at the mall today. I don't have confidence in Humanity.

Yet you have confidence in the CIA's ability to continue directing the modern world? Maybe stop hanging out at the mall.

 

[870EVO]

Yet you have confidence in the CIA's ability to continue directing the modern world? Maybe stop hanging out at the mall.

The people in power don't have to be competent. They simply hire people who are.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

Exactly. China can win this war by landing beachheads, waiting two days, and then withdrawing. Any part of TSMC that can be moved will be on the deck of an American carrier and on Japanese airfields by then, and the immobile parts will be rubble. That’s literally the only thing the west cares about in Taiwan gone, and the island is now mostly impoverished people who realise that their only future is with China. No chance in hell the yanks give TSMC back to them. An international bidding war will ensue for the engineers, and SMIC (read China) will by far be making the strongest offers, because Taiwan is China and the USA already has Intel’s engineers.

China faking an invasion of Taiwan will result in the Taiwanese population wishing annexation on their own within the decade. It’s very much a Chinese style of warfare, gain your objective with just about zero blood spilled, and quite possibly no fighting at all.

If TSMC is the West's vital interest in Taiwan and could quickly/easily be moved if the SHTF then why haven't they just done that already? I get the argument over it's importance and keep seeing many say that the brainpower could be coaxed away if needed and eqpt either relocated or replaced so it doesn't make any sense to roll with the status quo presently. Is TSMC dependent on the supply chain owned by China? If so then it's not really about TMSC at all and China already holds all the cards anyway.

 

[870EVO]

If TSMC is the West's vital interest in Taiwan and could quickly/easily be moved if the SHTF then why haven't they just done that already?

They started

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-semiconductor-manufacturing-expected-to-ramp-up-with-new-deal-/6998680.html

 

[SIMIΔN]

I think by "sneak" you're thinking Navy seal shit. If a Chinese landing force only gives Taiwan a three hour window, they're not going to be able to actually assemble a force large enough to stop a landing. Even if China goes fully overt, there's plenty of beaches on Taiwan that could facilitate that. A huge chunk of the beaches are surrounded by miles of farming fields. Those are basically massive ODAs, which are almost completely un-defendable, which in turn makes the beaches there un-defendable.

I'm assuming ODA means helicopter landing zone or paradrop zone.

Taiwan has air defences and it just takes one missile to take out an entire plane full of soldiers. Even if it fails, light infantry won't fair that well unsupported and there hasn't been a successful paradrop in contested territory since WWII.
Swarms of sea skimming transport helicopters would be Beijing's only way of pulling off a surprise attack. They could overwhelm any one point, and then rush any undefended isolated backline target. It would be insanely costly, but Taiwan would be worth it.

Where did you get three hours from? As soon as Beijing starts its buildup, the Taiwanese army will prepare. Some reservists will be called, mines and traps will be deployed and equipment will be moved into place. The American navy would ready itself, maybe some of the USMC would deploy to Taiwan. When intelligence suggests the invasion will occur, there will be a mass callup and most men would be at their posts within the day. (Drills have had a response of 95%)

As for whether the Taiwanese men will fight, I think Ukraine is actually a relevant example.
Despite Ukraine being the oligarchs and the West's abuse victim, Ukranians still stood and fought. Taiwanese men have a far greater stake in their society.
Taiwan is an island, whereas the Ukraine is surrounded by culturally similar nations. Taiwanese men would find it hard to leave if they wanted to.
Russia is their freer, more prosperious brother, who were one nation a generation ago. Taiwan and the mainland have been separate since 1950 and Taiwan is still many times more developed.

Look, I get where you are coming from, with all the "Crazy Putler is shelling his own nuclear plants" propaganda, it's an easy mistake to make to assume they are pulling the same bullshit regarding Taiwan.

 

[Susanna]

If TSMC is the West's vital interest in Taiwan and could quickly/easily be moved if the SHTF then why haven't they just done that already? I get the argument over it's importance and keep seeing many say that the brainpower could be coaxed away if needed and eqpt either relocated or replaced so it doesn't make any sense to roll with the status quo presently. Is TSMC dependent on the supply chain owned by China? If so then it's not really about TMSC at all and China already holds all the cards anyway.

You can't move TSMC in its entirety without causing enormous disruption to its activities, and its activities are vital to every single developed economy in the world, and more vital to modern armies than should ever have been allowed.
What they do is split the business in two, with initially small and low output plants located other places than Taiwan, and then gradually shift everyone over. Also what they do is throw money at Intel etc to develop their own fabs to the point where you're not relying on TSMC alone for the best processes.

 

[Fatniggo1488]

I'm assuming ODA means helicopter landing zone or paradrop zone.

Open Danger Area, so not even going to respond to the 2nd paragraph.

Where did you get three hours from? As soon as Beijing starts its buildup, the Taiwanese army will prepare.

They don't need to do a build up. They're not moving troops right alongside a border or anything. Almost any movement they did wouldn't look that much different to an outside observer to some of the war games they conduct regularly. Even if Taiwan did detect it early and started to prepare, all China would have to do is to turn it into an actual war game and wait until later to actually invade.

Kinda on a time crunch this morning so sorry for being brief, but to the air defense/sea defense thing, I think people are massively overstating Taiwan's abilities with regards to this. Anything they could deploy is close enough to the Chinese mainland to be hit with most of China's longer range missiles, and it's highly unlikely China doesn't know exactly where these are located.

 

[870EVO]

Open Danger Area, so not even going to respond to the 2nd paragraph.

They don't need to do a build up. They're not moving troops right alongside a border or anything. Almost any movement they did wouldn't look that much different to an outside observer to some of the war games they conduct regularly. Even if Taiwan did detect it early and started to prepare, all China would have to do is to turn it into an actual war game and wait until later to actually invade.

Kinda on a time crunch this morning so sorry for being brief, but to the air defense/sea defense thing, I think people are massively overstating Taiwan's abilities with regards to this. Anything they could deploy is close enough to the Chinese mainland to be hit with most of China's longer range missiles, and it's highly unlikely China doesn't know exactly where these are located.

China posted it's mock attack demonstration on Twitter. 98% of the missiles went to the sea. So that's what they are projecting.

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1645019915068362752

 

[teriyakiburns]

Russia is their freer, more prosperious brother

lmao

 

[Susanna]

lmao

Tell me you've never been to eastern europe without telling me you've never been to eastern europe.

 

[Rei is Shit.]

This is wrong. SMIC has a process supposedly similar to 7 nm but it doesn’t work anywhere near as well. Nobody cares about it. SMIC is a backup fab for old and low-powered designs.

Its DUV, just like TSMCs first gen 7nm and it has nearly the same density. Because its pretty much a copy of that first-gen TSMC 7nm with a few improvements. This is thanks to all the TSMC engineers they poached.

When you say "nobody cares about it" what you really mean is no american company is going to use it.

They started

View attachment 5041984

https://www.voanews.com/a/us-semiconductor-manufacturing-expected-to-ramp-up-with-new-deal-/6998680.html

Whats I find really funny is how many articles paint the US investing in chip production as some sort of 'gamechanger'. Yet China is investing 5x as much as the US is and the narrative is they can never catch up.

 

[TIM4EUS]

China posted it's mock attack demonstration on Twitter. 98% of the missiles went to the sea. So that's what they are projecting.

View attachment 5042023

https://twitter.com/TheInsiderPaper/status/1645019915068362752

>he thinks china is ever straightforward
>he takes some video released by chinas military at face value
>he doesnt realize this in itself could be a psychological warfare feint
>"ah yes roundeye, our missires suck. no need to worry about us hehe"

 

[870EVO]

>he thinks china is ever straightforward
>he takes some video released by chinas military at face value
>he doesnt realize this in itself could be a psychological warfare feint
>"ah yes roundeye, our missires suck. no need to worry about us hehe"

The US has provably lied to me more than China. And there's no logical reason to demolish what they consider to be China, and have vital manufacturing plants. This isn't a US military action against some camel riders half a world away. This is the equivalent of the US nuking Florida.

 

[TIM4EUS]

The US has provably lied to me more than China. And there's no logical reason to demolish what they consider to be China, and have vital manufacturing plants. This isn't a US military action against some camel riders half a world away. This is the equivalent of the US nuking Florida.

tbh im confused about your angle. I was assuming you were pro-taiwan and anti-china?

 

[870EVO]

tbh im confused about your angle. I was assuming you were pro-taiwan and anti-china?

Why would I take a side? Nothing I can do can affect this outcome in any way. I'm only drawing my conclusions from the information I'm receiving. China demolishing Taiwan is a net negative, not only industrially, but also would result in a massive social pushback back in China. Anything like that would be ludicrous.

This is not the US bombing Iraq into rubble. And never having to see the repercussions.

 

[TIM4EUS]

Why would I take a side? Nothing I can do can affect this outcome in any way. I'm only drawing my conclusions from the information I'm receiving. China demolishing Taiwan is a net negative, not only industrially, but also would result in a massive social pushback back in China. Anything like that would be ludicrous.

This is not the US bombing Iraq into rubble. And never having to see the repercussions.

I was trying to clarify your "side" so I could better understand your argument since I apparently misunderstood your original angle

FWIW my original point is still valid, the fact that china is saying their missiles suck (basically) is telegraphing something to the taiwanese. maybe its some kind of veiled peace overture or a way to "give them face" and allow them to negotiate from an apparently advantageous position

im gonna be honest, I havent been following the convo that well and I dont really understand the overall slant of the convo so im just gonna duck out

 

[teriyakiburns]

Tell me you've never been to eastern europe without telling me you've never been to eastern europe.

I've been to Romania.

e: to work, not as a tourist, before anyone thinks that.

 

[Sargon's wife's son]

Open Danger Area, so not even going to respond to the 2nd paragraph.

They don't need to do a build up. They're not moving troops right alongside a border or anything. Almost any movement they did wouldn't look that much different to an outside observer to some of the war games they conduct regularly. Even if Taiwan did detect it early and started to prepare, all China would have to do is to turn it into an actual war game and wait until later to actually invade.

Kinda on a time crunch this morning so sorry for being brief, but to the air defense/sea defense thing, I think people are massively overstating Taiwan's abilities with regards to this. Anything they could deploy is close enough to the Chinese mainland to be hit with most of China's longer range missiles, and it's highly unlikely China doesn't know exactly where these are located.

The Chinese military has about 100 helicopters and total those aren't all transport helicopters we actually don't know how many of the modern transport helicopters they have my guessing is probably around 30
And most of the Chinese Air Force is outdated s*** from the Cold War
The Taiwanese Air Force is somewhat Cold War stuff but it's American Cold War fighter planes like the F16 the F16 every time it went up against its Soviet counterparts completely demolish them in the air because it's a better plane entirely than the Mig

Please tell me how they're going to transport a large amount of troops with 30 transport helicopters why also slipping that pass Taiwanese radar systems
The only real country with stealth helicopters is the US.
They're going to be immediately detected the Taiwanese Air Force will be scrambled and they will all be shot down
Then they will attempted amphibious Landing which will be so easily seen by the time when Army that what they will be easily prepared for them and most the landing craft will be blown up

Guys but they have the Next Generation fighter just like Russia has its next Generation fighter which has not been seen in the entire Ukrainian conflict
China is a paper tiger and we should be encouraging them to invade Taiwan cuz then we would destroy our last Geo strategic rival without having to spill a single drop of American blood

 

[Mukhrani]

I don't think China would open the invasion with a surprise attack on the main island. I think they would attack the many small islands, owned by Taiwan, located in the surrounding seas. The most important of these are the Pearl Islands, or Penghu. The Qing conquering these islands - they're located a ways off of the heavily populated western coast of Taiwan - lead to the immediate surrender of the Taiwanese Ming rump state ages ago. The most easy to conquer of all the islands would be Quemoy, which is within spitting distance of Mainland China. Once all the islands were within their control, they could militarize them as they have other small islets in the South China Sea. Once they had these bases in place, they could threaten a blockade the of main island backed up by an expanded net of missile defenses, which seems to be their MO when it comes to expanding their security umbrella. Taiwan is very food insecure, much moreso than the Mainland, and couldn't long survive any kind of blockade. The US Navy would probably take pretty high losses if they ventured into the overlapping missile defenses. It might end as it did the first time that the Mainland expanded into Taiwan all those years ago: with the other side seeing the writing on the wall.

 

[WelperHelper99]

They purchased the sister ship of Russia's only carrier, refurbished and completed it, and it works better than the one Russia has (which often doesn't work at all).

That was only the first one. Then they made the Type 002, a product improved version, could fit a few more aircraft. And now, the Type 003:

It's weight places it in the supercarrier category.

Basically no chinese weapons have been used in any major conflict, the only other country using a sizable amount of chinese aircraft is pakistan and they been using F-16s against india, not the chinese fighters which btw are a cheap for-export-only model and not the J-20 which much like the F-22 its banned from export.

Weapons? They've exported a shit ton. The middle east is flooded with their old tanks, and in terms of smaller systems, take the Type 63 missile launcher

Been exported everywhere, Afghanistan and Iran loves them as well as Africa.

I care because Taiwan under China would not have the capability to continue making chips. The people who know the secret sauce will kill themselves and blow up all the factories.

Also who knows how Japan will react to it. They are the wildcard.

Japan has been building new ships like crazy and converting others to full fledged aircraft carriers. Taiwan falling means that their next. They'll fight.