Sudan 2023 Crisis Watch - For the three people that care about this dump of a country.

RA-5C Vigilante

Alone, Unarmed, Unafraid
kiwifarms.net
Joined
Dec 16, 2019
If there's any reason to be interested in African politics, it's that governments collapse, rise, coup themselves, collapse again, and start civil wars at the drop of a hat. Or used to, before the arrival of UN missions, and international Globohomo enforcement. Until now that is.
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While the site was down, news started popping off of armed men seizing the airport in the capital of Khartoum. Soon after, firefights started breaking out across the city and country. For all intents and purposes, the government of Sudan is at war with it's former paramilitary support army, the Rapid Support Forces.

Instead of bombarding you with twitter links, i'll give a quick rundown to start the thread and try to explain what is happening with the least amount of infodump. I'll also try to avoid giving news outlets any undeserved revenue, and while that could lead to personal bias or incorrect info, this thread is more just posting crazy shit you see happening, not a fifty paragraph polsci thesis.

1. Who is fighting?
The government, a military junta that overthrew the "democratic" interim government in 2021 that itself overthrew long ruling dictator Omar Bashir in 2019. While most people on non-American coups are prepped to scream 'MUH CIA" the truth is more complicated. The Sudanese government have supplied Ukrainian forces, but were also allowing the Russian to build a base on the Red Sea. However, the plan has faced delays and near collapse, with the Sudanese basically saying, "Yeah you'll have it, but only when our government isn't a junta." Whenever that will be. They largely control the professional army of Sudan, the SAF.
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The RSF were a pro-government militia. They are primarily former Janjaweed, the people who committed the Darfur genocide with Bashir's approval. They were also used to put down dissent, infamously massacring almost 130 people during a protest shortly after the coup that took out Bashir. They basically are supporting anyone who gives them help in killing Darfuri's. They supported the Army during it's 2021 coup and have been trying to stay independent. They also have the alleged support of the Russian Wagner PMC, but their leader, General Dagalo, has deployed RSF to support Saudi Arabia and the UAE against Iran, and has reached out to Western leaders for legitimacy.
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2. Why are they fighting?
Two big problems emerged from the coup and the continual "Move to Democracy". Firstly, the commander of the Army, General Al-Burhan, has basically solidified his rule to the point he's probably a military dictator in all but name, with less interest everyday of letting go of power. Worse, he wanted the RSF integrated into the Army. This is really a problem with the commander of the RSF, General Dagalo. In essence, the militia army he formed after years of planning and command will now go to a powerful rival, Al-Burhan. Essentially, it's two powerful generals with their own armies trying to win a power game.

This is all a giant simplification of events, but as I said, this is all a basic intro.

As of writing, it's been a day of fighting, with fighter jets from the Sudanese Air Force firing on RSF:

Tanks on the streets:
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Egyptian advisors and their jets captured at the airport:
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And this is just the start. Fighting is still continuing and has spread from the capital to the entire country.
 
Fascinating. How much semblance does this bear to the coup in Myanmar/Burma/whatever the fuck it's called?
 
Fascinating. How much semblance does this bear to the coup in Myanmar/Burma/whatever the fuck it's called?
I'd say not too similar, mostly because the Burmese military overthrew the government and refuses to let go, where this is about various Sudanese factions trying to gain power before "democracy" arrives in Sudan.
 
I'd say not too similar, mostly because the Burmese military overthrew the government and refuses to let go, where this is about various Sudanese factions trying to gain power before "democracy" arrives in Sudan.
Wait, so it's like a civil war between members of the army and members of a militia? Did I read your opening post right?
 
For those who are not familiar there is pattern of America doing this recently in Africa with those who were trained by military advisors doing coups aside from its long history of regime change in general.

Essentially.
No they are more official than a militia because the RSF was also folded into the security services and until the 2020 mutiny reported directly to the Sudanese version of the CIA. Also the head of the RSF owns the majority of gold mines in country and is thus owned by foreign financiers whose business relationships line his pockets. The closest comparison would be like the Republican Guard of Iraq pre war or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces.
 
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No they are more official than a militia because the RSF was also folded into the security services and until the 2020 mutiny reported directly to the Sudanese version of the CIA. Also the head of the RSF owns the majority of gold mines in country and is thus owned by foreign financiers whose business relationships line his pockets. The closest comparison would be like the Republican Guard of Iraq pre war or the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces.
According to some telegram chats that the goldmines were part of vagners way to supply their income to get guns how much of that is true God only knows . When kiwi was down all the war/ politics telegram canals were popping off with all sort of shit

I'll be damned this shit sits on their Wikipedia page and nobody looked lol

In April 2020, the Wagner-connected company "Meroe Gold" was reported to be planning to ship personal protective equipment, medicine, and other equipment to Sudan amid the coronavirus pandemic.[282] Three months later, the United States sanctioned the "M Invest" company, as well as its Sudan subsidiary "Meroe Gold" and two individuals key to Wagner operations in Sudan, for the suppression and discrediting of protesters.[186]

Following the October–November 2021 Sudanese coup d'état, Russian support for the military administration set up in Sudan became more open and Russian-Sudanese ties, along with Wagner's activities, continued to expand even after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leading to condemnation by the United States, United Kingdom and Norway.[268] The Wagner Group obtained lucrative mining concessions. 16 kilometres (10 mi) from the town of Abidiya, in Sudan's northeastern gold-rich area, a Russian-operated gold mine was set up that was thought to be an outpost of the Wagner Group. Further to the east, Wagner supported Russia's attempts to build a naval base on the Red Sea. It used western Sudan's Darfur region as a staging point for its operations in other neighboring countries, the Central African Republic, Libya and parts of Chad. Geologists of the Wagner-linked "Meroe Gold" company also visited Darfur to assess its uranium potential.[283]


Its under activities well boys somebody tried to renegade on their contract.
 
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Does the RSA have an air force as well? It seems like the side with the jets would have an overwhelming advantage, no? Or will this be a primarily "urban" conflict?
I can't get a definite answer, cause those are definitely MiG-29's, but I'm unsure if it's Sudanese pilots or the Egyptians in planes with Sudanese markings like the Soviets did in Africa during the Cold War.
 
Does the RSA have an air force as well? It seems like the side with the jets would have an overwhelming advantage, no? Or will this be a primarily "urban" conflict?
Sudans airforce is old and small, i doubt they will make a huge difference when the RSA can just use basic AA to shot them down.
 
The Wagner Group obtained lucrative mining concessions. 16 kilometres (10 mi) from the town of Abidiya, in Sudan's northeastern gold-rich area, a Russian-operated gold mine was set up that was thought to be an outpost of the Wagner Group. Further to the east, Wagner supported Russia's attempts to build a naval base on the Red Sea. It used western Sudan's Darfur region as a staging point for its operations in other neighboring countries, the Central African Republic, Libya and parts of Chad. Geologists of the Wagner-linked "Meroe Gold" company also visited Darfur to assess its uranium potential.
That was all done with the legitimate government. Wagner's relationships are not with the RSF. There are more than one gold mine in Sudan lol. Most of the gold mines in the country are owned by the guy in charge of the RSF but not every single one.
Does the RSA have an air force as well? It seems like the side with the jets would have an overwhelming advantage, no? Or will this be a primarily "urban" conflict?
They have Mi-24's and Mi-8's in very small numbers; maybe 10 max more likely less than 5 operational.
I can't get a definite answer, cause those are definitely MiG-29's, but I'm unsure if it's Sudanese pilots or the Egyptians in planes with Sudanese markings like the Soviets did in Africa during the Cold War.
Somalians exempted horn africans are much more competent than jungle dwellers. Sudan has a decent Air Force for a smaller sub saharan country. Egyptian military is in the country to co-operate on the evil Ethiopian dam issue.
Sudans airforce is old and small, i doubt they will make a huge difference when the RSA can just use basic AA to shot them down.
You do realize 20mm/30mm ammo and surface to air missiles are not something that is organically produced in Sudan and whose stockpiles are all held by the Sudanese government right. Also when your opponent lacks an Air Force old and small are irrelevant and you cannot simply "use basic AA to shot them down" like a fucking video game. Go look up the amount of ammo used to bring down a single aircraft that has the ability to dispense countermeasures and notch the separate radars of an unconnected network that lacks integration for multiple radar systems. They are currently conducting airstrikes with impunity.
 
Following the October–November 2021 Sudanese coup d'état, Russian support for the military administration set up in Sudan became more open and Russian-Sudanese ties, along with Wagner's activities, continued to expand even after Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, leading to condemnation by the United States, United Kingdom and Norway.
Funnily enough, Sudan has been clandestinely arming Ukraine since 2022:
https://www.africaintelligence.com/...kraine-armed-itself-in-khartoum,109802953-ge0
https://web.archive.org/web/20221225073546/https://twitter.com/UAWeapons/status/1603131094118834176:
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This other article is in Arabic, but according to the Wikipedia article, "List of military aid to Ukraine during the Russo-Ukrainian War":
Multiple military planes have flown from Sudan to Rzeszów airport from March to June, allegedly with artillery shells for Ukraine
 
You do realize 20mm/30mm ammo and surface to air missiles are not something that is organically produced in Sudan and whose stockpiles are all held by the Sudanese government right. Also when your opponent lacks an Air Force old and small are irrelevant and you cannot simply "use basic AA to shot them down" like a fucking video game. Go look up the amount of ammo used to bring down a single aircraft that has the ability to dispense countermeasures and notch the separate radars of an unconnected network that lacks integration for multiple radar systems. They are currently conducting airstrikes with impunity.
We dont know about who has what kind of AA, or if any aircraft are in working order anymore after the RSA took over the airports for a couple of hours.
 
We dont know about who has what kind of AA, or if any aircraft are in working order anymore after the RSA took over the airports for a couple of hours.
Lol yes we do; the RSF does not have the capability to operate a networked air defense grid FFS also Sudan has more than one single fucking airport which is all the RSF occupied that the military already retook; which also does not host permanent aircraft there. Furthermore government have total control of airspace. Their Air Force is literally attacking rebels within the capital itself which proves that Gov't/Military are still in charge of the SAM sites as they have highest density in that region and if rebels controlled them they wouldn't be able to conduct regular air strikes. Also they were able to shift the working aircraft before the rebels advanced on airport in numbers around capitol to Wadi Seidna airbase.
 
No videos, I'll provide some, I'm not going to bother archiving each gibberish tweet that goes with it. Just the text in the tweet.


Heavy artillery and gunfire can be heard in southern Sudan.



The #Sudan armed forces are capturing huge numbers of Hamidti's rebel militia.


Pages with amulets and talismans, known as curtains on the Darfur side, coming out of the #Sudan putschist Rapid Support Force militia. - Soldiers believed that when they wore it in the form of a belt, they would be protected from all kinds of bullets and attacks.


A video showing some members of the Rapid Support Forces attempting to loot shops

Central Committee of Sudan Doctors reported 56 civilians killed as well as “tens of deaths” security forces & around 600 wounded — RSF has seized the presidential palace, Khartoum airport and other strategic locations (3 hr cease-fire allowed wounded & civilians to leave) #Sudan




On Sudan crisis Matt Brydon is back on the screen. This is a man who has been described as Merchant of Death: Money, Guns, Planes and death is his currency. I wonder if @AJEnglish really understands this man's role in the conflict of the the Horn of Africa. @WilliamsRuto


NOW ! BREAKİNG NEWS 🚨🇸🇩 War helicopters are shooting at the putschists in Khartoum, the capital of Sudan.

A video showing an aerial bomb destroying a civilian house


🇸🇩In #Sudan, where clashes between government and rebel forces continue, new clashes broke out between the 15th and the early hours of the 16th, killing at least 56 civilians and injuring nearly 600 others. The RSF claims to have seized key facilities such as the presidential palace and the airport, but government forces deny this.



4 dead in the Battle of Khartoum, the conflict will be entering its 3rd day in a few hours, waiting for small explanations #Sudan #Africa #News #BreakingNews #Conflict #War Photos captured by @ABCNews this morning, in the Sudanese capital, #Khartoum show a violent take over
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Drone footage of #KhartoumAirport and military headquarters at 2 pm today. Several aircraft were damaged including a Saudia A330 as RSF takes control of the airport after days of tension in the country.


#khartoum #Sudan
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#International | Taliban urge dialogue and cessation of fighting in #Sudan
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The Sudanese people have no camel or camel in the ongoing conflict. It is an Emirati, Saudi, Qatari, Turkish, Egyptian conflict.

Heavy exchange of fire between a convoy made up of Sudanese army armored vehicles and RSF militiamen who are entrenched in a building.




Ok thats all I can find for now, a map of control via rando's on the internet:
https://nitter.net/anadolujurnal/status/1647702243829858310#m
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https://twitter.com/War_Mapper/status/1647753107084812289
#Sudan Update: The Sudanese Armed Forces (#SAF) have had partial success in restoring control of settlements in the eastern and south-eastern regions of the country. In #Khartoum, the Rapid Support Forces (#RSF) have expanded their control over parts of the city. Control of much of the city remains unclear, with large areas now contested.
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