Sudan 2023 Crisis Watch - For the three people that care about this dump of a country.

[Hillary Clinton's Ass]

How long do you think this new Sudanese civil war will last?

The previous two and the conflict in Darfur lasted 17.6 years on average, so your children might hear in passing about the end of this war.

 

[attractive_pneumonia]

Southfront did a quick breakdown of the conflict. I'll probably trawl for video content tomorrow if I feel like it. I don't really know what the fuck is going on so its not exactly easy to get good video snippets.

 

[Ishtar]

I wonder if it'll get split again

South South Sudan

Its not a dispute over ethnicity and religion as the Sudanese civil war between the Muslim North and Christian(and Animist) South was. Its basically between two warlords who want to run the country/monopolize their share of the loot.

With foreign powers backing them for various reasons.

African militaries are a well deserved meme, but I'd expect the Sudanese army to win here. Its got American and Egyptian support, whereas Dagalo just has Russian PMCs, maybe some Libyan aid, and not much more.

 

[msd]

Its not a dispute over ethnicity and religion as the Sudanese civil war between the Muslim North and Christian(and Animist) South was. Its basically between two warlords who want to run the country/monopolize their share of the loot.

With foreign powers backing them for various reasons.

African militaries are a well deserved meme, but I'd expect the Sudanese army to win here. Its got American and Egyptian support, whereas Dagalo just has Russian PMCs, maybe some Libyan aid, and not much more.

Was a joke, but thanks for still explaining it.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

Some random anon 'strategist/defense analyst' on twitter is doomposting about the evacuation of Khartoum possibly turning into "Blackhawk down on steroids." I dunno how credible the guy is, but if you're bored and want to get anxious/excited about a potential evacuation catastrophe, here's a short thread:

Uhhhhh…. UHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH I don’t know about this one friends. The part of Khartoum they’re going to be rolling into has like a million people, and the Janjaweed have thousands of guys (probably tens of thousands), who were just given a shipment probably consisting of MANPADS (which they know how to use).

In case this isn’t abundantly clear, if the Biden Administration orders them in, there’s a ‘very’ high possibility that this could turn into Blackhawk Down on steroids. The Habr Gidr Clan only had a few thousand guys in Mogadishu, and Task Force Ranger had an entire mechanized division on standby to bail them out. They were also initially only locking down one objective when things went sideways. Khartoum has ‘this many’ friendly embassies, so that’s at least 3 broad locales this task force will have to lock down (with the US embassy being the easiest).

If Biden’s team goes through with this (instead of just paying the king’s ransom the RSF has inevitably already asked for), it’ll have to be absolutely massive. One or two ranger battalions locking down Khartoum’s airport. A bunch of SF and SOF teams being helo-ed in to beef up partner embassy security to buy time for more US assets to flood in (probably about 500 operators in total). Another marine company (preferably a battalion) to lock down the US embassy and its environs. Airstrikes to knock out the bridges over the Nile to cut the RSF off from reinforcements. Worst of all, this much is ‘obvious’ (especially to the Russian military, which will invariably be relaying this data to the RSF).

https://twitter.com/spawnofKahn/status/1649224019512631303
Archive

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

Some random anon 'strategist/defense analyst' on twitter is doomposting about the evacuation of Khartoum possibly turning into "Blackhawk down on steroids." I dunno how credible the guy is, but if you're bored and want to get anxious/excited about a potential evacuation catastrophe, here's a short thread:

This "Analyst" has to be the stupidest motherfucker I've see with that label.

Does he think that the RSF commander doesn't know that if he shoots the wrong chopper down he'll have a metric ton of shit dumped on him? Does he think that we'd send in a whole Ranger battalion to rescue the embassy when we can still get to them fairly easily? Does he not know that the Sudanese army is still fighting and holding for control of Khartoum street by street?

Am I asking all these questions knowing this guy is literally a NAFO dick-slurper who probably can't get basic shit right and is so lazy he can't even get a profile banner that doesn't have a fucking watermark on it?

The answers yes.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Well this Nigga moment just got real.

The Imperium has signaled it intends to abandon Sudan to its fate. Sudan is now on notice that it either sorts its shit out now, or all Imperial controls will be withdrawn and they will be left to their own devices. The Imperium will come back in a decade or two and see what remains and who is in charge.

Top US, Sudanese generals speak as US weighs embassy evacuation

US General Mark Milley held call with Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan over safety of US citizens in Sudan.

www.aljazeera.com

 

[Scout Trooper]

Well this Nigga moment just got real.

The Imperium has signaled it intends to abandon Sudan to its fate. Sudan is now on notice that it either sorts its shit out now, or all Imperial controls will be withdrawn and they will be left to their own devices. The Imperium will come back in a decade or two and see what remains and who is in charge.

Top US, Sudanese generals speak as US weighs embassy evacuation

US General Mark Milley held call with Sudan’s General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan over safety of US citizens in Sudan.

www.aljazeera.com

I don't know why but it always tickles me to imagine these dudes up to their eyeballs in chaos and the phone is ringing nonstop with every diplomat, general, minister of whatever from across the world demanding a teleconference.

I don't know why you'd have Mark Milley of all people making this call other than as a thinly-velied threat but I'd personally have had CinC AFRICOM call nevermind I forgot for a second that AFRICOM is a permanent joke


(Commander in Chief, AFRICOM)

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

I don't know why but it always tickles me to imagine these dudes up to their eyeballs in chaos and the phone is ringing nonstop with every diplomat, general, minister of whatever from across the world demanding a teleconference.

I don't know why you'd have Mark Milley of all people making this call other than as a thinly-velied threat but I'd personally have had CinC AFRICOM call nevermind I forgot for a second that AFRICOM is a permanent joke

View attachment 5078852
(Commander in Chief, AFRICOM)

Reminder that this is the respected commander who, when asked if he was bothered that one of the generals AFRICOM trained overthrew the government of Guinea, he responded with and I quote, "Core values is what we start with in IMA programs."

 

[Ishtar]

Looking at the wikipedia page, it looks to me like the Sudanese army has the superior position, more foreign support, controls most of the capital(or important buildings and facilities) and most of the country.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Looks like Syrian mercenaries are among at least one of the sides involved in Sudan (Syrian government forces are among the pro-Haftar Libyan forces; so pro-Wagner/Russia and thus pro-Rapid Support Forces; the Free Syrian Army are among the internationally-recognised Libyan government side; I have no idea if they would support the Sudanese Army or not) and are already taking losses:

#Urgent | The number of Syrian casualties due to the battles in #Sudan increased to 11, according to loyalist websites

Step News Agency - وكالة ستيب الإخبارية on Twitter: "#عاجل | ارتفاع ع…

archived 23 Apr 2023 14:41:44 UTC

archive.ph

 

[Male Idiot]

That is seriously offensive to the Imperium. They are much more efficient, though they do share a vegetable in charge...

 

[Nuclear Poisoning]

Reminder that this is the respected commander who, when asked if he was bothered that one of the generals AFRICOM trained overthrew the government of Guinea, he responded with and I quote, "Core values is what we start with in IMA programs."

That happened last month. This article has the full video of the confrontation between a Congressman and Langley, as well as a transcript if you scroll further down:

Congressman Matt Gaetz forces AFRICOM Commander Michael Langley to admit the U.S. has trained coup leaders in Africa

In a heated exchange on Thursday, Congressman Matt Gaetz grilled the Commander of U.S. Africa Command, General Michael Langley over taxpayers' dollars

todaynewsafrica.com

When put on the spot, Langley only had a vague idea of how many soldiers have been trained by AFRICOM (he went with 50'000), as well as a vague guestimate of how many of those trained soldiers ended up participating a coup or coup attempt (he went with "less than 1%" which means around 500). A person in his position would be expected to know that information more precisely, at the top of his head, right?

About his bumbling reply about "we teach core values, all trained soldiers share our vision of democracy": I'm going to be here and say that he comes across as someone who realizes exactly how moronic and ineffective the whole MBA-level "shared core values" system of training is, but he can't come out and say it so when put on the spot he just begrudgingly defaults to the script. Maybe he genuinely thought he could make a difference by being in charge of AFRICOM and after less than a year in the position, realized it's all sham and is facing the facts. Or maybe the system is that corrupt for a reason, and he knows it, doesn't care, but wasn't expecting to deal with the congressman.

I dunno, this stuff is all new to me, didn't even know what AFRICOM was until 15 minutes ago.

 

[Ishtar]

African civil wars tend to either be extremely violent or not very violent depending on if they are ethnic and religious in nature or just between warlords or corrupt politicians. Like I think-the one in the Ivory Coast that had a few thousand casualties.

The South Sudanese civil war and the conflicts in Nigeria have a religious and ethnic element that means the average African with his AK-47 is going to be more violent to his enemies then if he’s just a hired trigger man of some or another warlord.

It looks like the latter to me, worst case outcome is a war that lasts several months to a year and eventually international pressure forces an agreement. With maybe a few thousand dead.

 

[RA-5C Vigilante]

That happened last month. This article has the full video of the confrontation between a Congressman and Langley, as well as a transcript if you scroll further down:

Congressman Matt Gaetz forces AFRICOM Commander Michael Langley to admit the U.S. has trained coup leaders in Africa

In a heated exchange on Thursday, Congressman Matt Gaetz grilled the Commander of U.S. Africa Command, General Michael Langley over taxpayers' dollars

todaynewsafrica.com

When put on the spot, Langley only had a vague idea of how many soldiers have been trained by AFRICOM (he went with 50'000), as well as a vague guestimate of how many of those trained soldiers ended up participating a coup or coup attempt (he went with "less than 1%" which means around 500). A person in his position would be expected to know that information more precisely, at the top of his head, right?

About his bumbling reply about "we teach core values, all trained soldiers share our vision of democracy": I'm going to be here and say that he comes across as someone who realizes exactly how moronic and ineffective the whole MBA-level "shared core values" system of training is, but he can't come out and say it so when put on the spot he just begrudgingly defaults to the script. Maybe he genuinely thought he could make a difference by being in charge of AFRICOM and after less than a year in the position, realized it's all sham and is facing the facts. Or maybe the system is that corrupt for a reason, and he knows it, doesn't care, but wasn't expecting to deal with the congressman.

I dunno, this stuff is all new to me, didn't even know what AFRICOM was until 15 minutes ago.

I think he's a general, which means professional well-paid bullshitter who answers to no one, and when put on the spot, instead of showing his stars and getting everyone to shut the fuck up, he actually had to come up with an answer on the fly.

 

[Justa Grata Honoria]

President Joe Biden Strands Thousands of Americans in Sudan with No E…

archived 23 Apr 2023 17:13:31 UTC

archive.ph

President Joe Biden Strands Thousands of Americans in Sudan with No Evacuation Plan Amid Embassy Disaster

 

[Nuclear Poisoning]

I think he's a general, which means professional well-paid bullshitter who answers to no one, and when put on the spot, instead of showing his stars and getting everyone to shut the fuck up, he actually had to come up with an answer on the fly.

Right, I thought general meant he spent his life busting his ass on field, mostly following orders and getting stuff done with an implicit trust in the whole system, and only now that he made it at the very top he's dealing with the shock that the people at that level are incompetent and probably corrupt shitheads.
Looking at his career history I can't really tell if my theory holds any water, because I know fuck all about how the U.S. Marines work. I gotta say I have a feeling being put in charge of AFRICOM last year probably wasn't his first glimpse into high-level incompetence.

Lieutenant General Michael E. Langley

Fleet Marine Force, Atlantic, Marine Forces Command, Marine Forces Northern Command

web.archive.org

 

[mindlessobserver]

African civil wars tend to either be extremely violent or not very violent depending on if they are ethnic and religious in nature or just between warlords or corrupt politicians. Like I think-the one in the Ivory Coast that had a few thousand casualties.

Its also a bit of a mistake to call Sudan "Africa" in the sense most westerners understand it. It has more in common with Yemen then it does Congo. Part of what made the Darfur conflict so violent was it was a fight between what we would understand African Africans beings, and the Arab "Africans" that make up the majority of Sudan's population.

 

[Bananadana]

President Joe Biden Strands Thousands of Americans in Sudan with No E…

archived 23 Apr 2023 17:13:31 UTC

archive.ph

President Joe Biden Strands Thousands of Americans in Sudan with No Evacuation Plan Amid Embassy Disaster

I dont think a single good person is mucking about in a shithole like that and all NGO niggers can be "Necklaced" by the ooga-boogaloo boys for all i care.
One can only hope that instances like this will make people think twice before signing up to help fuck up some random 3rd world country in the name of globoWHOmo.

Spoiler: Thread video tax is kinda disappointing.

They say hundreds of dead civvies and they say heavy fighting and all i see is niggers shooting at nothing in particular.
Nobody seems to be remotely worried by the war they are fighting either. Its like this is a badly made GTA clone. Even the civvie NPCs dont react to gunfire in their proximity.

First one is a government Tank unloading on something.
You can hear shots fired, but everyone seems to be in a "Saturday evening BBQ"-mood and not particularly concerned with the ongoing "battle".
Random civilian NPCs are calmly standing in between the tank and its totally legit target, explaining the high casualty numbers amongst noncombatants.

Second one is amateur sniper hour.
Asides both the sniper and the cameraman exposing themselves to return fire from the totally legit RSF troops he is totally shooting at by sitting right next to an open window,
our melanated marksman also happens to rest the barrel of his rifle on said window, a beginners mistake which wrecks the accuracy.
That being said, he is the first guy i saw so far who actually used his scope. I guess that alone makes him special forces material in this conflict.

The only meaningful difference between rebels and government troops seems to be the level of equipment.
Nobody really seems to have even the most basic of training. Or a basic survival instinct. Or a valid target to open fire upon.
Not that any of that really matters when you are lighting up random bullshit and/or the civilians hiding behind said bullshit.

 

[attractive_pneumonia]

Right, I thought general meant he spent his life busting his ass on field, mostly following orders and getting stuff done with an implicit trust in the whole system, and only now that he made it at the very top he's dealing with the shock that the people at that level are incompetent and probably corrupt shitheads.
Looking at his career history I can't really tell if my theory holds any water, because I know fuck all about how the U.S. Marines work. I gotta say I have a feeling being put in charge of AFRICOM last year probably wasn't his first glimpse into high-level incompetence.

Lieutenant General Michael E. Langley

Fleet Marine Force, Atlantic, Marine Forces Command, Marine Forces Northern Command

web.archive.org

Almost all of the Generals in the US military have never seen combat, most of them had their first "combat deployment" at the Battalion or Brigade level, which means they sat in a nice office and just looked at maps in the rear while real people did the combat duties. We have another 10-15 years to go before the first entries in the GWOT start showing up as high ranking Generals.