Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[mindlessobserver]

The Russians could turn Kharkiv into a crater with their artillery tomorrow, yet they are refusing to engage in area bombing in order to spare civilians. They are being precise, patient and methodical.

Being able to do something does not mean that something is militarily practible. First of all, lets take your scenario here.

Turn Kharkiv into a crater with artillery. Yes, Russia CAN do that, but what does reducing Kharkiv to ruins actually accomplish? It won't destroy the UAF in the area. They are spread out across hundreds of kilometers of trenches and fire bases all along the eastern border with the Russian Federation, with their rapid reaction battalion's staged well beyond Russian Artillery. Reducing Kharkiv to a smoking ruin would accomplish fuck all militarily beyond reducing kharkiv to a smoking ruin. It will kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians, and that's it. The Front won't move backwards in Russia's favor one inch for the effort.

In exchange however, Russia would have to use artillery based entirely within the confines of the territory of the Russian Federation in order to conduct such operations. Ukraine has shown zero hesitation in engaging with counter artillery fire across the border if Russia decides to use Russian territory to lob shells into Ukraine. Which is why Russian fires from its home turf tend to be sporadic and limited. If Russia were to do what you are suggesting here then Ukraine would respond in kind.

Just as Kharkiv can be reduced to a smoking crater by Russian Artillery, So Belgorod can be reduced in kind by Ukrainian Artillery. Major escalation. For absolutely no militarily appreciable gain beyond escalation for its own sake.

Which is why Russia has not done it. Its not restraint on their part. Its simple reality.

 

[El Gordo Ramsay Sex Dwarf]

If it's anything like what probably happened with the tires, he'll get someone to buy some good stuff from China but whoever it is will go for the cheap option and skim the money off the top.

Which is exactly what happened with their R-187P1 "Azart" radio project. Supposed to have been designed, tested and built in Russia, but the general in charge farmed it out to China and kept the rest of the grant. I have one of the captured ones, and it's just basically a Baofeng set inside with a Taiwanese Spartan-6 FPGA chip.

 

[Standardized Profile]

Second of all, Wagner PMC was already in the grey area, being "technically" illegal combatants in Ukraine as Mercenaries, even though they do act under of the orders of the Russian state for all intents and purposes.

Ukraine and Russia are both parties to API, which defines a mercenary as someone who (inter alia) "is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict." I think most Wagner are Russian nationals, and the ones who aren't resided in Russian prisons, so they don't fall into the mercenary category here.

They may be mercenaries in countries where Russia is not an open party to a conflict, if it can be shown they were motivated by private gain and not directed by the Russian state.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Ukraine and Russia are both parties to API, which defines a mercenary as someone who (inter alia) "is neither a national of a Party to the conflict nor a resident of territory controlled by a Party to the conflict." I think most Wagner are Russian nationals, and the ones who aren't resided in Russian prisons, so they don't fall into the mercenary category here.

Hence "Grey Area" disclaimer. By most metrics captured Wagnerites should be treated as POW's, but the sad truth is POW treatment relies on the rule of reciprocity.

 

[RodgerDodger]

Being able to do something does not mean that something is militarily practible. First of all, lets take your scenario here.

Turn Kharkiv into a crater with artillery. Yes, Russia CAN do that, but what does reducing Kharkiv to ruins actually accomplish? It won't destroy the UAF in the area. They are spread out across hundreds of kilometers of trenches and fire bases all along the eastern border with the Russian Federation, with their rapid reaction battalion's staged well beyond Russian Artillery. Reducing Kharkiv to a smoking ruin would accomplish fuck all militarily beyond reducing kharkiv to a smoking ruin. It will kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians, and that's it. The Front won't move backwards in Russia's favor one inch for the effort.

In exchange however, Russia would have to use artillery based entirely within the confines of the territory of the Russian Federation in order to conduct such operations. Ukraine has shown zero hesitation in engaging with counter artillery fire across the border if Russia decides to use Russian territory to lob shells into Ukraine. Which is why Russian fires from its home turf tend to be sporadic and limited. If Russia were to do what you are suggesting here then Ukraine would respond in kind.

Just as Kharkiv can be reduced to a smoking crater by Russian Artillery, So Belgorod can be reduced in kind by Ukrainian Artillery. Major escalation. For absolutely no militarily appreciable gain beyond escalation for its own sake.

Which is why Russia has not done it. Its not restraint on their part. Its simple reality.

If Russia did decide to turn Kharkiv into a smoking crater via artillery, at least half of their own shells would end up landing in Belgorod. Because they really are that bad at this.

 

[Glowie]

Is being a fucking retard a requirement for military command in the Russian Federation?

Since Russia is low trust society and likes of prigozhin are product of prison culture, basically internet tryhards. Prigozhin is a hot dog seller who has been in prison without qualifications and he became CEO of Wagner. With enough brown nosing, more crime and flat out lying in a culture that encourages lying churns out retards who want to climb the social ladder from very top to meat fodder Ivan and his pals.

As result of vranyo culture, everyone lies to everyone it's easy for a retard to appear smart by lying, giving false reports for clout and prestige as seen in Z posters here for example

Low trust societies, not even once.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Being able to do something does not mean that something is militarily practible. First of all, lets take your scenario here.

Turn Kharkiv into a crater with artillery. Yes, Russia CAN do that, but what does reducing Kharkiv to ruins actually accomplish? It won't destroy the UAF in the area. They are spread out across hundreds of kilometers of trenches and fire bases all along the eastern border with the Russian Federation, with their rapid reaction battalion's staged well beyond Russian Artillery. Reducing Kharkiv to a smoking ruin would accomplish fuck all militarily beyond reducing kharkiv to a smoking ruin. It will kill thousands of Ukrainian civilians, and that's it. The Front won't move backwards in Russia's favor one inch for the effort.

In exchange however, Russia would have to use artillery based entirely within the confines of the territory of the Russian Federation in order to conduct such operations. Ukraine has shown zero hesitation in engaging with counter artillery fire across the border if Russia decides to use Russian territory to lob shells into Ukraine. Which is why Russian fires from its home turf tend to be sporadic and limited. If Russia were to do what you are suggesting here then Ukraine would respond in kind.

Just as Kharkiv can be reduced to a smoking crater by Russian Artillery, So Belgorod can be reduced in kind by Ukrainian Artillery. Major escalation. For absolutely no militarily appreciable gain beyond escalation for its own sake.

Which is why Russia has not done it. Its not restraint on their part. Its simple reality.

He was shitposting with this early in the war pro-Zigger Western Vatnik milblogger's propaganda, which boasted about a then-widely believed imminent Russian victory (hence the mention of Kharkiv, when was then at the frontline of the Russian invasion):

 

[Snekposter]

I am starting to realize why General Surovikin always seemed to look so fucking tired of life all the time if idiot political monkey's like Prigozhin are who he has to deal with on the daily.

I was reading a Harry Turtledove book a while back (one of the Hot War ones, forget which exactly), and during one of the chapters about an Armenian bomber crewman the man looked at his drinking habits ever since coming to the Red Air Force and came to the realization that Russians must drink so much because they're constantly dealing with other Russians in their everyday life. And let's face it, he probably had a point. Would any of you here manage to stay out of a vodka bottle if you were stuck dealing with Russians 24/7? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Random aside, why do so fucking many of the Russian fanboys constantly talk about how restrained Russia is being? Its pretty fucking clear they aren't what with chucking cruise missiles vaguely in the direction of Ukrainian powerplants and substations and not really caring where they end up, and six figures a day in artillery shell usage to the point of at least one tube bursting (that we know of) certainly isn't a humanitarian tactic.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The Russians claim that the Ukrainians have been there for several weeks and have established supply lines across the Dnieper. In an analysis from November, Oleshky seemed to be somewhat fortified, with troops inside the town itself and in nearby settlements. Many of those troops have probably been redeployed to the Battle of Bakhmut Central Station's Toilet, but the fortification efforts in the Kherson region should have continued... right?

To allow the Ukrainians to establish positions across the Dnieper before the announced Ukrainian offensive to cut the landbridge to Crimea and Kherson seems like a big blunder. If the Ukrainian offensive is successful, the Kherson troops would be trapped, but even if the offensive is only partially successful, it will affect morale. We already saw how, when Ukraine attacked in the Izium area during the Kharkiv offensive, Russian units fled because they feared encirclement. When the Zaporizhzhia front is prioritized during the offensive, that could perhaps even create a false impression for the Kherson garrisons that things are more precarious than they actually are.

The Wildcard move in this is Ukraine advancing south from Kherson over the Dneiper and racing for Crimea in lightning blitz. Everyone discounts this because everyone says it cannot be done. Much like the Incheon landings in the Korean War.

 

[Glowie]

Everyone discounts this because everyone says it cannot be done. Much like the Incheon landings in the Korean War.

Ukraine has been moving hundreds of infantry, air defense, tanks and hammering russian key locations with things like HIMARS, and GLSDB.

Combined with impending blitz to Melitopol which would cut supplies Crimea.

Knowing that Russia is already scraping bottom of the barrel for equipment and people who aren't fleeing, most being fighting age men.

When Ukraine blows kersch bridge that will start domino effect.

 

[Thomas Talus]

He was shitposting with this early in the war pro-Zigger Western Vatnik milblogger's propaganda, which boasted about a then-widely believed imminent Russian victory (hence the mention of Kharkiv, when was then at the frontline of the Russian invasion):
View attachment 5081472

Yeah, as soon as they mentioned paratroopers, I thought "have there been any of those since the 'feint' on Kiev compromised the VDV's ontological soundness?".

 

[Snekposter]

The Wildcard move in this is Ukraine advancing south from Kherson over the Dneiper and racing for Crimea in lightning blitz. Everyone discounts this because everyone says it cannot be done. Much like the Incheon landings in the Korean War.

It honestly could happen at this point. God knows the people assigned to the Kherson front on the Russian side of things have likely had a lot of their heavier stuff stripped away to feed Bakhmut and the other more active fronts. According to ISW they guys in Kherson are likely spread out, undermanned, and would struggle to reinforce each other in case of attack. As to Bakhmut itself Ukraine has already set up their second defensive line in the cities beyond it, and any serious attack across the Dnieper towards Crimea would have Russia panic and yank everything they can from elsewhere to plug any holes. The most likely spot to pull reinforcements or reserves would be Zaporizhia since its closest, which would not be good given that its back and forth there at the moment. Obviously the guys who launched said opening attack into the Kherson area would have to understand chances are better than even they're not coming home even in a body bag, but uh... anyone know what those new Azov formations have been up to?

Attachments are fucky but according to ISW there's a spot in the NE area of Kherson just before the river narrows where there's no fortifications for kilometers in any direction. If I was going to send some assault infantry on a semi-suicidal diversionary attack, I'd do it there at night, cut the communications and transport lines between the two axes to the E and W, and then push up during the day to reinforce an attack, either through Zaporizhia or Kherson.

 

[No. 7 cat]

There has been a crossing made already to an area of fairly wild terrain. Perhaps the idea is to advance with a degree of natural cover. Sevastopol native Denys Davydov made mention of this advance in his most recent post.

https://youtu.be/sE-wUbbDpcE

 

[Pedophobe]

As an aside, this small YouTuber claims to be attempting to provide an unbiased professional analysis of the war from the perspective of a Canadian staff college graduate. I don't know how legit it is but I'm enjoying it so far.

https://www.youtube.com/@militaryoperations

youtube.com/@militaryoperations

 

[Glowie]

there's no fortifications

There could be mines and lots of them makes sense to bait "Hey come over here and fuck our asses raw!" At least that's the way in jaeger training.

 

[Ghostse]

The Wildcard move in this is Ukraine advancing south from Kherson over the Dneiper and racing for Crimea in lightning blitz. Everyone discounts this because everyone says it cannot be done. Much like the Incheon landings in the Korean War.

I'm going to TL;DR this very heavy, you've taken the "Pro" so I'm going focus mostly on the "con", but it is not impossible.

Firstly, if Ukraine had sea-born landing capability anymore, this would be a possibly. You could very probably get a mechanize company on the shore and use that as flanking support to support any river crossing. But they don't, they have been doing small teams of marines as a nose-thumbing to demonstrate Russian weakness, but those teams cannot stay or hold territory. If you already have the territory and are pushing south, you could use raft/small boats to bring down infantry to support, but those infantry will need vehicles that wouldn't be raftable.

But as it stands, Ukraine has one option (edit: if they want to go south into Kherson oblast): Over the Dnieper. This is not the world's craziest river, but it is wide enough at Kherson you'd need dedicated bridging - pontoons or (ideally) preformed structures you can drop into place. Scissor-bridges wouldn't be an option. I am not an hydro engineer but I don't think you could get across with a single free-formed span and expect it to hold under military loads, and that's to say nothing of the equipment that would be needed to move it.
What I'm saying here is there would be very long, very large segments of pre-fabbed bridge. This would be very difficult to hide - I live in a city that did pre-prepared bridge replacements for a corridor, and for just crossing highways on already prepared placements with no one shooting at them, it was a huge undertaking with a full year of prep and very visible heavy equipment. You couldn't do that shit quietly.

The front has also learned full in to the WWI recreationist mindset- there is no smash and grab. Ukraine needs to be ready to take, hold, and supply. Russia, even given everything, still has tube and range superiority. Any bridge you put in place you MUST secure a 50km+ bridgehead ditty mao or you will quickly be doing the Ukrainian version of the humiliating withdraw from Kherson because your bridge will be underfire. And the more field expedient your bridge is, the less able it is to take fire.
Russia had control of Kherson, and was using a pontoon bridge. Do you think that was their first choice?

If you want to reverse roles/positions and it was Russia looking to cross, Russia might be willing to get some sort of crossable structure down, then throw a bunch of mobliks and T-55's into the grinder to see if they can do anything good; if the do, great. If they don't and the bridge gets destroyed and they are cut off, oh well you're out some mobliks and T-55s. But Ukraine can not risk their armor getting stranded with no evac. And right now the evac plan for the bridge being knocked out would be "drive through the entire Kherson Oblast to Orikhiv".

You could possibly try to do some gayops by doing a version of the 2022 rope-dope where you have some bridging equipment that looks like its ready to drop new bridges, and move extra brigades too look like they'll be using them, but Ukraine very clearly wants to cut Crimea with their 2023 counter offensive, so getting Russia to deploy extra troops that would be expecting action, to the Southern front would not be very productive.

Extreme extra tl;dr:
Bridging the Dnieper would require masses of contruction equipment or water craft, as well as troops, we are not seeing, and Russia would definitely observe and respond to. Its not IMPOSSIBLE they have 3-4 preformed bridges poured in Kiev that will get overnighted to the front but that's not what my money would be on.
A Dnieper crossing would be something that might be done to supply or reinforce an already successful attack elsewhere but it is extremely high-risk and I don't think they'd try.

Denys Davydov

I trust that guy about as much as I trust the Russian MOD releases.

 

[CuzinEd]

It cannot be explained. It must be experienced for one's self.
Look up "Driving in Russia" on Youtube.

This right here. If you have never seen the videos of Russians driving. You need to watch them. They are hilarious and awful. Russians drive like niggers. They even make the worst drivers in America look good. Asians women and niggers are some of the worst drivers in America but compared to the Russians they are skilled. You will notice Russians never stop. They just keep going as they smash into whatever is in front of them. I know what you are thinking. But it's Russia it's cold and there is snow so the cars slide. No, the roads are clear and there is no snow the trees are green. But the Russians never stop. They just smash into whatever is front of them.

They also drive around with dash cameras at all times because of the amount of insurance fraud that happens and for the corrupt cops. I watched one video where a young Russian woman in her 20's walked over and pretended she had been hit by the car. The driver got out and told her there was a dash cam. She got up and walked away. The Russians can be quite nigger tier. Niggers like to do insurance fraud as well.

 

[Snekposter]

There could be mines and lots of them makes sense to bait "Hey come over here and fuck our asses raw!" At least that's the way in jaeger training.

Fair, and obviously knowing the Russians there's probably not a single stretch of their side of the bank that isn't mined, but for a force of leg infantry they'd have better odds.

Note: I am assuming that Ukraine pulls a page out of Russia's book and sends in a bunch of guys to almost-certain death as a distraction, which... isn't the worst idea if there is actually a well-planned operation to take advantage of said distraction, one that would be almost certain to make good on those losses and then some if properly executed. Obviously this wouldn't be Market Garden 3.0 (since we all know how 2.0 went) but an amphibious stealth landing disguised as a full assault designed to draw men away from Zaporozhia, an armored punch from Zaporozhia using NATO equipment with the goal of driving as hard as possible to threaten an encirclement of the Russian forces dug in on their side of the Dnieper... I'm probably misreading the map badly but they'd have good odds and there's a fair bit of partisan activity behind the Russian lines there, too.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Bridging the Dnieper would require masses of contruction equipment or water craft, as well as troops, we are not seeing, and Russia would definitely observe and respond to. Its not IMPOSSIBLE they have 3-4 preformed bridges poured in Kiev that will get overnighted to the front but that's not what my money would be on.
A Dnieper crossing would be something that might be done to supply or reinforce an already successful attack elsewhere but it is extremely high-risk and I don't think they'd try.

Ukraine has clearly husbanded its strike aircraft and drones. They have also not used their JDAMs yet. It's possible to do this if they let loose a barrage along the entire front to mask intentions, but focus the really heavy hitters for the kherson direction. Pound the crap out of the artillery and C&C in that area while the bridges are getting overnighted and then start moving quick. The bridges don't need to last forever. Just long enough to get troops across. Start with the Bradleys and strykers racing ahead to secure a buffer area and then bring up the tanks and light infantry.

By the time Russia can start moving forces over in reaction Ukraine would be across. The only fly in the ointment is that dam at Nova Karkovka. Russia could blow it.

 

[No. 7 cat]

The thing about relatable Mr Davydov and other simplifiers or misleaders is the Russkies unbelievably appear to listen to him and others in that Ukrainian or regional war vlogger space (comparably to how Putin is said now to consume the basic RT or RIA stuff his people might consume if they care a little, basic stuff) . He was one of quite a few who over hyped the Kherson push such that Izium and the Kharkiv adjacent positions were severely under strength. Now that didn't wholly work as the RF evacuation of that over reinforced position was very efficient. Whatever he says will happen suggests something wholly different but very notable will happen. Going by what they've done before and what resources they possess, any under defended sector that might allow the Russian holding to be cut is possible. I wonder if there might be an effort towards Mariupol from the north.

The will they, won't they is itself fascinating and suggests a lot of thought goes into the Ukrainian information effort. RF's seems only capable of convincing a crew of utter losers and has beens in the West.