Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[AgendaPoster]

He was shitposting with this early in the war pro-Zigger Western Vatnik milblogger's propaganda, which boasted about a then-widely believed imminent Russian victory (hence the mention of Kharkiv, when was then at the frontline of the Russian invasion):
View attachment 5081472

Poor Striker lmao. Is this real? I have to go on TG when I get home to see for myself

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

View attachment Kherson Sector Orbat April 2023.png
Source: https://archive.ph/rG17s

Image lifted from /k/.

The evacuation of Kherson Oblast as a goodwill gesture imminent?

 

[mindlessobserver]

View attachment 5082398
Source: https://archive.ph/rG17s
View attachment 5082399
Image lifted from /k/.

The evacuation of Kherson Oblast as a goodwill gesture imminent?

It would be fucking hilarious if Russia is so understrength in this area the Ukrainians can just do a George Washington and cross the Dnieper with light infantry in fishing boats.

 

[teriyakiburns]

The evacuation of Kherson Oblast as a goodwill gesture imminent?

How much of the bridge at antonivka is even left? Could they span it with a bridging vehicle?

 

[Blatant hypocrite]

I don't believe the Kherson Oblast thing. I'm sure they have special forces/partisans operating in the area, but any large movement would be incredibly difficult IMO. All the reasons Russia can't attack over the Dnieper apply equally to Ukraine.

Is there any evidence of this landing other than some colored maps?

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

View attachment 5082398
Source: https://archive.ph/rG17s
View attachment 5082399
Image lifted from /k/.

The evacuation of Kherson Oblast as a goodwill gesture imminent?

Why exactly would they do that?
- They've presumably also been continuously hit with artillery/skirmishes etc everywhere else, why are they only pulling back here?
- They aren't logistically isolated unlike kherson city in oct-nov 2022, they can send supplies over by rail and roads, and arent dependent on bridges
- It's difficult for ukraine to pursue/exploit their retreat due to the river, if ukraine could force them to retreat from anywhere else, they would
- River is good tank ditch, allowing Ukraine a beachhead is probably in no way a better defensive situation than what it was last month.

Unless, of course, this is some victory through audacity shit, or (and I'm more willing to believe this) some Operation Fortitude bullshit, which they might even back up with a feint.

All the reasons Russia can't attack over the Dnieper apply equally to Ukraine.

Not equally so, since topologically the current Ukrainian side is higher than the current RuZZian side. But still, crossing water is crossing water.

 

[draggs]

I was reading a Harry Turtledove book a while back (one of the Hot War ones, forget which exactly), and during one of the chapters about an Armenian bomber crewman the man looked at his drinking habits ever since coming to the Red Air Force and came to the realization that Russians must drink so much because they're constantly dealing with other Russians in their everyday life. And let's face it, he probably had a point. Would any of you here manage to stay out of a vodka bottle if you were stuck dealing with Russians 24/7? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Random aside, why do so fucking many of the Russian fanboys constantly talk about how restrained Russia is being? Its pretty fucking clear they aren't what with chucking cruise missiles vaguely in the direction of Ukrainian powerplants and substations and not really caring where they end up, and six figures a day in artillery shell usage to the point of at least one tube bursting (that we know of) certainly isn't a humanitarian tactic.

That sounds like The War That Came Early series, there's an Armenian bomber pilot character in that that reflects on how shitty drunk shitlords Russians are all the time. Could also be Hot War I guess, Turtledove likes to repeat himself A LOT from book to book and series to series

 

[No bullying allowed]

There has been reports of Ukraine operating across the river ever since they liberated Kherson, so it's nothing new, unsure why it's suddenly getting so much attention now. And the area they've been operating in looks like swamp area so practically useless to launch offensive actions from.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Unless, of course, this is some victory through audacity shit, or (and I'm more willing to believe this) some Operation Fortitude bullshit, which they might even back up with a feint.

Would not be the first time a defending Army got caught with its pants down when the attacker does something  clearly impossible. We have to keep in mind the Dneiper is only a barrier if Russia actually defends it. If they've pulled too much shit away it's just a water obstacle, not an insurmountable barrier.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

It would be fucking hilarious if Russia is so understrength in this area the Ukrainians can just do a George Washington and cross the Dnieper with light infantry in fishing boats.

If that actually does happen I'm gonna hurt myself laughing so hard. The level of fuckup on Russia's part would reach new levels.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

Is there any evidence of this landing other than some colored maps?

Source also https://archive.ph/rG17s

Geolocated footage published on April 23 indicates that Ukrainian forces are operating in areas northwest of Oleshky on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast.[175] Kherson Oblast Occupation Administration Head Vladimir Saldo denied that Ukrainian forces have established a bridgehead on the east (left) bank as of April 23.[176]

If that actually does happen I'm gonna hurt myself laughing so hard. The level of fuckup on Russia's part would reach new levels.

I agree with @Ghostse's assessment that crossing the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast is both near impossible and suicidal for the Ukrainians to achieve, but similar to how Russia just gave up the capital city and large chunk of the west (right) bank of Kherson -after inflicting fairly heavy losses on the Ukrainians initially as the latter tried to capture territory across flat terrain with no air support - I could see the Russians fearing a large pocket of their forces being cut off at the east (left) bank of Kherson if their counterparts at Melitopol collapse. If the Russians are to resist a Ukrainian offensive to capture Crimea itself, they would at least want as many troops there to do it.

Some more evidence of Ukrainian forces operating on the (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast:

RealPolitik (@machiavelli_gr)

ΤΩΡΑ Πρώτες εικόνες από την απόβαση των Ουκρανικών στρατευμάτων στην Χερσώνα στις 18/4, στην αριστερή όχθη του Δνείπερου. Δεν υπήρχαν Ρώσοι στις ντάτσες, ούτε υπήρξε καμία όχληση από τους Ρώσους κατά τη διάρκεια δημιουργίας και ασφάλισης του προγεφυρώματος.

nitter.net

Archived: https://archive.ph/ZYKYo

 

[draggs]

There has been reports of Ukraine operating across the river ever since they liberated Kherson, so it's nothing new, unsure why it's suddenly getting so much attention now. And the area they've been operating in looks like swamp area so practically useless to launch offensive actions from.

Because "Russia advanced another 2 apartment buildings in Bakhmut today" for the last 2 months (TWO MORE WEEKS CULDROON) is fucking boring and we Westoids with our 2 second attention spans DEMAND CONTONT

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Some more evidence of Ukrainian forces operating on the (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast:

RealPolitik (@machiavelli_gr)

ΤΩΡΑ Πρώτες εικόνες από την απόβαση των Ουκρανικών στρατευμάτων στην Χερσώνα στις 18/4, στην αριστερή όχθη του Δνείπερου. Δεν υπήρχαν Ρώσοι στις ντάτσες, ούτε υπήρξε καμία όχληση από τους Ρώσους κατά τη διάρκεια δημιουργίας και ασφάλισης του προγεφυρώματος.

nitter.net

Archived: https://archive.ph/ZYKYo
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EDIT: just realized I've double-posted. My bad.

ISW & frens posted recent satellite imagery of the areas around that road (as of 1-2 months ago), and the place was riddled with brand new trench complexes, tank-traps, mine fields, firing points, etc. But back then, those positions were empty & clean, with no trash & sign of any troops.

I'd assumed all that shit was for later use, just in case of a Ukrainian crossing/breakthrough; but now it looks like they'd always planned on falling back to those new trench complexes, regardless of any Ukrainian offensive in the area. They may intend on letting Ukraine advance & become over-extended, then try to smash them in the open in prepared killzones & minefields.

But the way this thing has been going, all that will accomplish is to concentrate Russian troops into a target-rich area that's being observed from fucking space for months.

 

[MG-34]

Ukrainians ruining everything for the native Irish.

 

[Oxyjen]

That’s racist.

 

[AgendaPoster]

That’s racist.

Cozy

 

[Ghostse]

Obviously this wouldn't be Market Garden 3.0 (since we all know how 2.0 went) but an amphibious stealth landing disguised as a full assault designed to draw men away from Zaporozhia, an armored punch from Zaporozhia using NATO equipment with the goal of driving as hard as possible to threaten an encirclement of the Russian forces dug in on their side of the Dnieper... I'm probably misreading the map badly but they'd have good odds and there's a fair bit of partisan activity behind the Russian lines there, too.

The problem with this scenario is that Ukraine lacks the ability to land armor - they don't have the equipment. Any landing without armor is doomed, even as a diversion. Now could they do some 9-D chess move with decoys? Sure, that's possible. But this would only make sense if you want to pull Russian troops away while you strike at like Donetsk, but if you are wanting to try to cut off Crimea it doesn't - it would just get Russian troops moving and active in the areas you want to hit.

Putting Marines down to dab on the Russians and then go back home is still useful. It keeps the Russians off balance and you are keeping their scouts reporting constantly about activity - so if you did do anything, the first reports will be just more routine UKA activity. It also will keep Russian Command edgy and keep soldiers there instead of anywhere else on the front.

Ukraine has clearly husbanded its strike aircraft and drones. They have also not used their JDAMs yet. It's possible to do this if they let loose a barrage along the entire front to mask intentions, but focus the really heavy hitters for the kherson direction. Pound the crap out of the artillery and C&C in that area while the bridges are getting overnighted and then start moving quick. The bridges don't need to last forever. Just long enough to get troops across. Start with the Bradleys and strykers racing ahead to secure a buffer area and then bring up the tanks and light infantry.

And it needs to last longer than getting troops across. Unless your thrust is going all the way along the Dnieper to Orikhiv, you are going to need those bridges to stay up while you dig in. Russia is low but not out of long range missiles - yes, we've seen they are shit, but less so when able to get precise coordinates for what they're trying to hit and its static (see: story of that Foreign Legion brit of them getting rain of fired after like three days in country). They absolutely would blow their reserves to try to cut off a cross river action.

We were making fun of Russia making moves to try to hodl Kherson with only a pontoon bridge - that was routinely getting BTFO - for supply. Ukraine would very likely find itself in the same situation.

Even if we want to pretend that Russia's SAM operators & fighter pilots all decide to go on strike on D-Day, and a deep-cover Ukrainian operator penetrates into the Vatnik Shaker Central telegram channel and gets every artillery commander to post their GPS coordinates to "pwn the NATOrds" and Ukraine is able to just level every single artillery position in the Oblast, we've seen how the fronts settle into WWI static emplacements. Ukrain would need to keep that front supplied for a long time, and temp bridges won't do it.

I'd assumed all that shit was for later use, just in case of a Ukrainian crossing/breakthrough; but now it looks like they'd always planned on falling back to those new trench complexes, regardless of any Ukrainian offensive in the area. They may intend on letting Ukraine advance & become over-extended, then try to smash them in the open in prepared killzones & minefields.

That's my assumption about why Russia has effectively surrendered the immediate left bank to the Yooks. With a physical barrier like the river there is no need to dig in on the mudflats. As long as they maintaining effective overwatch, they'd have forewarning of any sizable Ukrainian action, so might as well let cross get over extended, then hammer the bridges and troops in open mud fields.

 

[DumbDude43]

And it needs to last longer than getting troops across. Unless your thrust is going all the way along the Dnieper to Orikhiv, you are going to need those bridges to stay up while you dig in. Russia is low but not out of long range missiles - yes, we've seen they are shit, but less so when able to get precise coordinates for what they're trying to hit and its static (see: story of that Foreign Legion brit of them getting rain of fired after like three days in country). They absolutely would blow their reserves to try to cut off a cross river action.

dont even need fancy precision long range missiles
they got troops everywhere in the area, plenty of regular old artillery, enough to pummel down any pontoon bridge that goes up

you can get a couple guys across the river on boats, you could ~maybe~ get a handful of vehicles across a hastily thrown up bridge under cover of night, but you can not establish supply lines to support prolonged operations, the enemy will blow shit up and cut your guys off and then it's all fucked

 

[draggs]

There's no way ookraine is going to try to cross the river when they can attack east of the river in Zapo, as Russian telegrams have been pointing out for months the hohols have been slowly building up reserves of men and stuff there

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

View attachment 5083279
Ukrainians ruining everything for the native Irish.

@firstladygracey seems to have deleted her Tiktok account but the only video I could find related to this account is the person complaining about waiting for hours in her capital's airport, so she is capable of being able to afford travel abroad; some another English(?) woman (@evabacchoo), unrelated to @firstladygracey, makes a response to her video.

Eva Bacchoo| cheap holidays on TikTok

#stitch with @firstladygracey #atol #abta #tui #dublinairport

www.tiktok.com

Maybe don't wait around for 12 years and expect your government to give you a house for just existing, I dunno.

It appears her government is giving Ukrainians basically high quality prefab housing, so it appears they are not even been given prioritized pre-existing social housing; maybe she should ask her government as to why it didn't provide such decent prefab housing for its citizens to begin with.