Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Fruttasecca]

Thought I had today watching Russian talking heads on TV discuss American politics during their circlejerk session.
You can probably expect a lot more "anti-war" types to pop up as next presidential elections are nearing in the United States. I get the feeling this time Russiagate is going to be more than asinine libtard cope, now Kremlin actually has a serious reason to intervene in US politics as much as they can in order to rob Ukraine of Western support.
Kremlin spares no expense on bribes, you can be sure of that, and of course kompromat to control people and sink their opponents. And I can bet a lot of sleazy politicians can smell the green coming their way. It's going to be interesting for sure.

Something worth discussing I think.

Associating with anything associated with the Kreml is political suicide at this point, there are some real retards in politics who think they are untouchable but I think everybody serious will stay the fuck away from Russia at least for the time being.

 

[Thomas Talus]

Will the price Russia has paid so far ever see an equivalent return?

Depends on how much the resources of the oblasts are worth, along with the value of a secure land route to warm-water ports.

 

[Scout Trooper]

There's longer video from them fighting Russians over layers of their corpses from previous failed assaults. Many of those trench complexes have been lost & retaken dozens of times over the past few months, particularly along that road. Occasionally a dead Ukrainian is seen but those are generally from the same day, since they generally try to recover their dead (particularly Azov).

I can still remember what a dead haji smelled like after hours in the sun of being rolled over by multiple convoys, along with the one who got nailed at the wire near our compound & rolled into a ditch (for several days, his brothers declined to recover his body, so he must've not been a very good Muslim). So I try not to imagine the stench in those trenches since it triggers the 'ol ptsd.... but it's got to be hellish, especially as the ground thaws for those who aren't scent blind from living in it.

I hear ya. This is grim shit. Very grim.

Glad to hear there are still Azov formations and they're maintaining their discipline and esprit de corps. That can't be easy under these conditions.

 

[SpergioLeonne]

Depends on how much the resources of the oblasts are worth, along with the value of a secure land route to warm-water ports.

Contrasted against revealing themselves as a joke to hungry hungry China and demoting themselves to Iran status in the axis of evil

 

[No. 7 cat]

So russians have announced that they been using t-14 as indirect fire support and have yet to engage any direct missions. My money is that it's bullshit since they won't risk it after the whole terminator fiasco let alone t-90M, but hypotheticaly how long till it gets poped or worse captured View attachment 5085514

Going on what's happened before, this could be another prestigious capture for Ukraine and humiliation loss for Russia, but I have difficulty in believing they're even using one for, say, indirect fire support from some well emplaced position. The things couldn't cross Red Square for a parade without gearbox (I think) failure. Any Izium style front line collapse would result in capture of stuff not on the front line.

Georgi (whose wife is Ukrainian) does provide good coverage from Denmark and for much of the video covers this river crossing which he emphasises that it is best described as one of the first 'discovered' crossing.

 

[Corette]

Going on what's happened before, this could be another prestigious capture for Ukraine and humiliation loss for Russia, but I have difficulty in believing they're even using one for, say, indirect fire support from some well emplaced position. The things couldn't cross Red Square for a parade without gearbox (I think) failure. Any Izium style front line collapse would result in capture of stuff not on the front line.

There's also too high risk that one would be taken out by Excalibur round or similar.
We'll see those T-55s on front before any T-14s on any role besides photoshoots.

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

And speaking of Magyar, this is their stockpile of donated drones; something tells me nothing like this exists in the Russian world, nor will it ever.

Makes one wonder if the /chug/sters of this site and indeed elsewhere are actually crowdfunding to help Russia? The Russian Army likely doesn't want to be seen getting what is basically charity from third worlders abroad (the drones and ammunition from North Korea and Iran are from bilateral state trade ties), and it didn't help they absorbed the pro-Russian separatist armies in the Donbas, so it's not like there are the same semi-autonomous units as there are in the Ukrainian army (Azov, etc.) that could benefit from donated drones, thermals, etc.

Russia is underperforming badly, but it's too early to say they're losing. They still hold a lot of territory they took in their initial pushes, and might be making incremental progress in some places. I've said before that this is a war of relative attrition rates, and we have yet to see who ends up burning out first.

This; no one is really "winning" or "losing"; it's whoever gains the most from the inevitable ceasefire/agreement/peace treaty after all this, around the territories gained or lost around the lines of post-2014 Ukraine to the current situation. Ukraine giving up the Vatnik-dominated Donbas (or could even moderate pro-Russian-separatists accept Kyiv rule?) or Crimea (which is mostly, again, Russians) is a very likely outcome that is still very much a favorable one for Ukraine if it's the closest to being the "winner".

Keep in Mind Trump tried to end US involvement in Syria and the Defense Department just straight up refused to obey

Trump "tried to end US involvement in Syria" by being the one US President who finally bombed the Syrian government (something that Obama ultimately avoided, despite all his red lines) and he left the Kurds high and dry (after Obama did a very successful military intervention against ISIS on their behalf that cost little in US lives). He did, however, end armed support for the Syrian rebels who most often some shade or another of Salafi Islamist.

 

[Ghostse]

@Ghostse I can’t quote your post but it’s unlikely a Kherson crossing will happen without a thrust down south also happening around the same time. The problem with the current Russian defense in depth structure is they simply don’t have enough forces to act as fire brigades in many areas, or the training to actually conduct a retreat under fire to the next position 7 or 8 km back. ISW assesses that this would mostly have to be done by poorly trained and motivated conscripts on foot meaning a thrust from Kherson on top of a breakthrough in the south would effectively collapse the entire Russian defensive plan for Crimea and possibly cause a panic elsewhere.

You can highlight text in an unquoteable post and reply from the little tooltip.

You could raft reinforcements/resupply over, sure (or put down temp bridges to get convoys over and pull them before Russian arty can zero in). Very viable option for supporting a push from the east especially since friendly forces would hold the other side - you could just do makeshift ferries at that point.

The scenarios being posited were all Dnieper crossings, which would be just leg-borne infantry. While yes they would be facing badly trained mobliks and the experienced troops being the leftovers of a badly battered brigade, if they are just needing to hold off and out-retreat light infantry, they definitely can.

The issue of course with a southern push from the east is that it'd be open to attack from futher east. But that's too many what-ifs until we see some more solid proof of what UKA is planning.

I cannot understand why RU seem willing to risk the loss of territory by going all dicks out for Bakhmut which'll allow UA to fuck with the supply lines for Crimea (including the North Crimean canal built in the 70s supplying most of Crimea's water) at relative leisure and ease.

Bahkmut is a needed step to go secure Siversk, a major rail hub. It also removes a Ukrainian rally point to pressure Donetsk. You don't need supply lines to Crimea when you're occupying Kiev.

You can probably expect a lot more "anti-war" types to pop up as next presidential elections are nearing in the United States. I get the feeling this time Russiagate is going to be more than asinine libtard cope, now Kremlin actually has a serious reason to intervene in US politics as much as they can in order to rob Ukraine of Western support.

I think that's going to depend on how 2023 shakes out. Ukraine is one of the few areas Biden has comfortable bipartisan support on from voters. Everyone knows Ukraine is a bunch of slavs, but right now they are giving decent return on investment.
If Ukraine doesn't get some solid gains, or sufferes a set back, public opinion will sour and you'll see less "anti-war" and more "anti-wasteful spending/negotiations" types. If Ukraine gets some middling gains ie nothing flashy or high profile, you'll see candidates run on a "pumping the brakes on aid" platform. If Ukraine does pull off something yuge, like take Crimea, then no serious contender will be able to run with an anti-Ukraine platform.

 

[CuzinEd]

I shit on the vatniggers all the time so I figured I would shit on the other sides vatniggers for a change. I have heard about this group called NAFO a lot. Everything I have seen so far has been pretty cringe inducing. But I found their YouTube channel and it's even more cringey.

Just check out this cringey shit. It's like something a Boomer would make if they knew how to do it. Can you say forced meme? Look at the low view counts. Nothing is as popular as a cringey forced meme. Lets throw in some nigger music. Zoomers love nigger music. Let's throw in some pro Biden memes as well. The most popular president ever. I have to keep myself from going all schizo Boomer and thinking this NAFO shit was created by some government agency. That's how cringey and forced this shit is. Holy shit. It's great, your chosen side is winning. But do you have to be such cringey faggots about it? Can you tone down the cringe some?

Nice way to ruin some war porn you cringey faggots.

I mean, if you want to win a war you need to be honest about the situation.

This is like Roman messengers reporting the disaster at Cannae but the Senate just blows them off and draws fake pictures of Carthagianan ships being sunk to share on Telegramus.

This is pretty much it. Russia is in denial and the vatniggers are in denial.

I cannot understand why RU seem willing to risk the loss of territory by going all dicks out for Bakhmut which'll allow UA to fuck with the supply lines for Crimea (including the North Crimean canal built in the 70s supplying most of Crimea's water) at relative leisure and ease.

Russia made a big deal out of taking Bakhmut. If they don't it will be seen as a huge loss even if it isn't. Bakhmut has no strategic value at all. It's a propaganda thing. Russia dug themselves into a hole with it like retards.

Russia is underperforming badly, but it's too early to say they're losing. They still hold a lot of territory they took in their initial pushes, and might be making incremental progress in some places. I've said before that this is a war of relative attrition rates, and we have yet to see who ends up burning out first. It's important to not become a reverse-vatnik.

I disagree. Russia is losing and it's based on their own conditions. They wanted to take Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government. Unless this happens they are losing/have lost. No one else made these conditions Russia did. That was clearly their goals from the start of the invasion. Unless you believe trying take Kyiv was just a feint. Which it wasn't. The rate at which Russia is moving it will take them decades to make it to Kyiv. That's time they don't have. It doesn't matter how much progress they make because they aren't doing it fast enough.
@Fuck It We'll Do It Live

Trump "tried to end US involvement in Syria" by being the one US President who finally bombed the Syrian government (something that Obama ultimately avoided, despite all his red lines) and he left the Kurds high and dry (after Obama did a very successful military intervention against ISIS on their behalf that cost little in US lives). He did, however, end armed support for the Syrian rebels who most often some shade or another of Salafi Islamist.

Trump had a bunch of cruise missiles launched at an airbase in Syria the Syrians weren't even being used. There were most likely no Russians there and there were the US let the Russians know what they planned to do, and they told their people to get out. Trump did a lot to end the US involvement in Syria. But the people around him lied to him about it. Nothing else really happened in Syria after that. The situation stabilized and the Russians left. I would say Trump did a pretty good job cleaning up a mess he didn't make.

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

So russians have announced that they been using t-14 as indirect fire support and have yet to engage any direct missions. My money is that it's bullshit since they won't risk it after the whole terminator fiasco let alone t-90M, but hypotheticaly how long till it gets poped or worse captured View attachment 5085514

Lol ok.

It's just a matter of time before we see holhol drone footage of one of them then. They should be clearly identifiable because their turret is shaped differently.

Now we wait.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

@Fuck It We'll Do It Live

Makes one wonder if the /chug/sters of this site and indeed elsewhere are actually crowdfunding to help Russia?

I've never seen any post receipts from Russian charities or individual units for donations sent; at most they'll comment about having donated in groups/subs, or screenshot a sketchy cashapp transaction to an official-sounding handle/screenname, that they're directly funding drones or whatever for famous DPR units (Somalia, Sparta, etc) being the most popular).

The Russian Army likely doesn't want to be seen getting what is basically charity...

Come to think on it, if I was a smart vatnik & wanted to donate enough money for a drone, I wouldn't want to give any through the Russian MOD or official channels; "trust me brosef" donations to someone on VK or Telegram would probably stand a better chance of ending up in the intended hands.

 

[Thomas Talus]

I disagree. Russia is losing and it's based on their own conditions. They wanted to take Kyiv and topple the Ukrainian government. Unless this happens they are losing/have lost. No one else made these conditions Russia did. That was clearly their goals from the start of the invasion. Unless you believe trying take Kyiv was just a feint. Which it wasn't. The rate at which Russia is moving it will take them decades to make it to Kyiv. That's time they don't have. It doesn't matter how much progress they make because they aren't doing it fast enough.

What I would consider victory for Russia is holding onto significant portions of Ukrainian territory at the end of hostilities. That would allow them to say to their population "look, we took land from them and they were forced to accept it! It's only a matter of time before we can take more." By and large, the price won't matter as long as they can point to the glory.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Russia is underperforming badly, but it's too early to say they're losing. They still hold a lot of territory they took in their initial pushes, and might be making incremental progress in some places. I've said before that this is a war of relative attrition rates, and we have yet to see who ends up burning out first. It's important to not become a reverse-vatnik.

Depends how you consider winning vs losing.

In a purely territorial border war context, yes; Russia still has a high probability of walking out of this war with objectively more land than it did before.
Somewhat like the Cenepa War or the recent Nagorna-Karabhak Conflict, the difference is its not Ecuador vs Peru or Armenia vs Azerbaijan. Its fucking RUSSIA vs Ukraine. The question remains if Russia can regain its image as a "world power" and "second strongest army" after getting stopped dead in its tracks by Ukraine?

In the sense that we consider the 2003 US Invasion of Iraq a "loss", the victory ship has sailed and Russia has already long lost that one the minute they failed to take Kiev. Russia has already taken far more casualties, both man power and materiel, for far less and ultimately failed to take over the country and failed to enact regime change.

 

[Wendy Wheelchair]

I have heard about this group called NAFO a lot. Everything I have seen so far has been pretty cringe inducing. But I found their YouTube channel and it's even more cringey.

I have to keep myself from going all schizo Boomer and thinking this NAFO shit was created by some government agency.

NAFO, to me, as someone eternally on Twitter, seems to be by-and-large non-native English speaking European Zoomers., hence the cringe and reliance on forced memes (I lived in Germany from 2019-2021. My friends unironically thought "You mad bro?" was still funny). A lot of them seem also like Ukrainian diaspora 2nd generation kids, too. You also have to look at it from the EU lens. Europeans are so cucked that they cannot ever show any national pride (except via soccer) and claim moral superiority by only badmouthing the US since they know we won't do anything to them. NAFO seems like the perfect opportunity for repressed Eurofags to let off some good old fashioned semi-nationalism and unify against a common enemy.

---

I pretty much stopped monitoring the war a few months in, so apologies if this has all been said before, but I really don't see the point in trying to monitor things so closely. Either side is going to release biased data on the progress of the war. Also, the people sucking Russia's dick here can say "Ukraine flag people are NPCs and annoying", but I've really seen no average American Ukraine supporter do anything other than say "I support Ukraine". They never make claims as to how the war is going or make any kind of assessments way beyond their understanding. Meanwhile, American vatniks post the stupidest unverified shit ever, especially videos that are years old. Every vatnik is somehow a military strategy expert. It's such dumb Zoomer self-importance cope a la Nick Fuentes.

The only people I really trust on this are the Polish. They have the most to lose by Ukraine losing and nothing to gain by making shit up about it. They're putting their money where their mouth is both literally and by taking in refugees. Isn't it weird every populist right-winger has loved every single thing Poland's done up until the war?

 

[Glowie]

The thing about relatable Mr Davydov and other simplifiers or misleaders is the Russkies unbelievably appear to listen to him and others in that Ukrainian or regional war vlogger space (comparably to how Putin is said now to consume the basic RT or RIA stuff his people might consume if they care a little, basic stuff) . He was one of quite a few who over hyped the Kherson push such that Izium and the Kharkiv adjacent positions were severely under strength. Now that didn't wholly work as the RF evacuation of that over reinforced position was very efficient. Whatever he says will happen suggests something wholly different but very notable will happen. Going by what they've done before and what resources they possess, any under defended sector that might allow the Russian holding to be cut is possible. I wonder if there might be an effort towards Mariupol from the north.

The will they, won't they is itself fascinating and suggests a lot of thought goes into the Ukrainian information effort. RF's seems only capable of convincing a crew of utter losers and has beens in the West.

I've watched Davydovs videos with soyjak thumbnails and all, he often stops talking about Ukraine and start to talk about Syria. Davydovs videos need much needed nuance, research like Russian/wagnerite maps
He shills his sponsor at every opportunity and his telegram channel, which is awfully milquetoast. Davydov is more profit driven than being informative, being a grounded Ukrainian airline pilot.

Tangent
Oddly enough his videos are followed by Davydov's are AI generated videos ANKA, Divine Justice, Oracle Eyes to name few.

AI videos contain information that I already know, inaccuracies and begging to join paid memberships

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Will the price Russia has paid so far ever see an equivalent return?

That's the way I see it. The damage this has done to Russian economy, society, relationships and overall image is simply not recoverable at this point. Certainly not by capturing few Ukrainian villages and small towns, which is all they could hope for, they've ultimately antagonized the West and made sure that NATO became conscious of their border with Russia and the threat therein, giving them a reason to not only persist but grow and strengthen - good job.

People look at the fact that sanctions didn't literally cause millions of Russians to starve immediately and think that they don't work, overlooking the fact that the government had to pull out all the stops to ensure the whole thing doesn't collapse, restricting trade, killing foreign businesses and investment that came along with it, trading away natural resources for next to nothing, using every loophole to bypass sanctions and import essential goods. Budget deficit reached record low, GDP is seeing "reverse growth". Everything that went into making sure Russia doesn't fold under sanctions has a cost associated with it.
It's literally setting money on fire.
Forget an equivalent return, it's all sunk cost, the only sensible decision is to stop. But Putin is DSP of politics, it's not in his nature.

 

[Snekposter]

Depends how you consider winning vs losing.

In a purely territorial border war context, yes; Russia still has a high probability of walking out of this war with objectively more land than it did before.
Somewhat like the Cenepa War or the recent Nagorna-Karabhak Conflict, the difference is its not Ecuador vs Peru or Armenia vs Azerbaijan. Its fucking RUSSIA vs Ukraine. The question remains if Russia can regain its image as a "world power" and "second strongest army" after getting stopped dead in its tracks by Ukraine?

In the sense that we consider the 2003 US Invasion of Iraq a "loss", the victory ship has sailed and Russia has already long lost that one the minute they failed to take Kiev. Russia has already taken far more casualties, both man power and materiel, for far less and ultimately failed to take over the country and failed to enact regime change.

Pretty much.

Remember Kiwis, the initial casus belli for this war was to de-Nazify the Ukrainian government. That's a bold claim and the dreaded Nazis forcing Russia to the bargaining table would be a massive humiliation on both the national and international levels for them. They'd be forced to acknowledge both the legitimacy of the Ukrainian government and admit they're not actually Nazis, which would upend their entire official rationale for starting the war, and force them to admit the whole thing was just a failed land grab, with some absolutely brutal repercussions. China would pretty much have to cut them off because with their claims on Taiwan they cannot look like they support blatant land grabs if they want to maintain the fig leaf that Taiwan is just a rogue province.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

But Putin is DSP of politics

Sorry, but that title goes to plantain-man bus driver in Venezuela

 

[BaldAndMorallyBankrupt]

So russians have announced that they been using t-14 as indirect fire support and have yet to engage any direct missions. My money is that it's bullshit since they won't risk it after the whole terminator fiasco let alone t-90M, but hypotheticaly how long till it gets poped or worse captured

There was no Terminator fiasco. They sent 10 and reportedly 4 got damaged in combat,2 lightly, 2 heavily. Then we heard nothing of them for months before a few videos of it operating in the woods popped up and at least one video of it operating in an urban looking area. Then again we haven't heard anything of it since. The T-90M being captured though was an absolute blunder, that is true.

Using an MBT for indirect-fire however is a pretty ineffective use for any tank. My only guess would be that they want their crews to get their feet wet a bit, but even then, weird thing to admit.

Going on what's happened before, this could be another prestigious capture for Ukraine and humiliation loss for Russia, but I have difficulty in believing they're even using one for, say, indirect fire support from some well emplaced position. The things couldn't cross Red Square for a parade without gearbox (I think) failure. Any Izium style front line collapse would result in capture of stuff not on the front line.

It has been confirmed since that the breakdown was not in fact a breakdown. A driver (who i can only assume was unfamiliar with the tank) had somehow engaged the handbreak without noticing and the crew only realized this when they tried to tow it away only for the thing to refuse to move. Even if you don't believe written sources, there's video of the crew of the same tank getting back in it and just driving off.

NAFO, to me, as someone eternally on Twitter, seems to be by-and-large non-native English speaking European Zoomers., hence the cringe and reliance on forced memes (I lived in Germany from 2019-2021. My friends unironically thought "You mad bro?" was still funny). A lot of them seem also like Ukrainian diaspora 2nd generation kids, too. You also have to look at it from the EU lens. Europeans are so cucked that they cannot ever show any national pride (except via soccer) and claim moral superiority by only badmouthing the US since they know we won't do anything to them. NAFO seems like the perfect opportunity for repressed Eurofags to let off some good old fashioned semi-nationalism and unify against a common enemy.

I disagree. I play ArmA and this NAFO stuff gets posted semi-regularly and it's almost always US players doing it. With the only except being polish players also posting it occasionally. As far as youtubers using the meme, i've only seen Battle Order and Oxide do it, which are again both American. The thing with Europeans is that they either hate the military and don't want anything to do with it at all, or are super hardcore military guys and love showing off their "totally awesome military".

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Regarding who's winning... Someone once said that in war, everyone loses. This has to be true to an extent, there's no recovering lives it takes and maims forever.
I'm sure a lot of people would consider a tenuous peace more of a win than having a war break out and coming out of it triumphant, paying in blood to retain sovereignty from the invader.
While Ukraine is obviously suffering greatly, Russia is not winning by any means. All its weaknesses were exposed for everyone to see, and to my knowledge they have quite literally failed to achieve any of their stated goals in this "special military operation" - Ukraine isn't only not demilitarized, it's more armed than ever. Ukraine's "Nazi regime" was not "denazified", it has only grown stronger, and its people have forged stronger national identity in the face of common enemy. And NATO? Expanding my dude.
Russia tried to rape Ukraine and broke its dick as a result, that's not winning.