Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Dirty Larry said:
Journoscum from the Kyiv Post cheering at the idea of creating a rogue nuclear state to own the Russians. About what I expect from these types, but it’s still wild to see them frothing at the mouth over shit like this.



e: image attach fuckery

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"just 4km" Does he think this is running a few laps around an oval?
 
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Mary the Goldsmith said:
That has been the cope for pretty much the entire war, before the threads were split, most pro ukes used Russia's "snail pace" as proof they were badly losing the war, similarly when Mariupol fell, again the cope was that the city was "insignificant" and the Ruskies "took too long to capture it" therefore Mariupol was a Victory for the hohols... in their minds
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Exactly this. The main cope has always been shit like "Russia's not bombing hard enough. Russia's not slaughtering civilians enough. Russia's not channeling General Sherman hard enough." It's always been some variation of "Russia isn't winning hard enough". As in, hard enough to please the arm chair generals who do nothing but read think tank gospel and play HoI.

They think it's clever to say "Hah, a win? But it took X length of time", as if that changes the outcome? That might be the most cope filled comment someone could ever make. "Okay, you won. But geez, took ya long enough".
 
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make_it_so said:
If they would do this with F-16s, you'd think they'd also do it with the Leopard 2s, Abrams, Bradleys and other major equipment we've sent over. But in the case of those we simply put Ukrainian troops on a crash training course while also taking forever to actually hand the shit over.
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This war has become the MIC's "Cash for clunkers" program.
They force countries in to giving up their older stuff and make them buy brand new stuff. And Ukies get to die for it all.

The poor fucks who get sent over with old F-16's and little stick time are going to be facing seasoned pilots who are operating equally or more capable aircraft. And every single Russian is going to be chomping at the bit to put some F-16 kills on their service record.

I don't even understand why they think the old F-16's will do anything useful in this setup.
They can patrol around the western side. OK, but the russians are sending missiles from afar. Russia doesn't seem to be flying over land it doesn't control. And if they go to the east near the line they are going to get smoked by AA or in a dog fight.

Ukraine will never get the land in the east back. No matter how many 10,000's of men they sacrifice trying. And the longer they wait on the counter attack the more the Russians will be able to prepare and stack supplies. And on the flip side Russia might be able to grab one city at a time after months of work on each but they wont be able to take them intact. The line is what it is now and moving it one way or the other will just get you 1000's dead for a few km of rubble. Z-man and the EU need to face reality and ignore the USA's "until the last Ukrainian" bullshit.
Bakhmut Artemovsk was hyped up as Ukraine big chance to turn the tide. That didn't happen. It's negotiation time.

 
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102 said:
A plea to stop circlejerking: With PMC Wagner (at least temporarily) gone and the focus off of Bakhmut, and the Kremlin/MOD fucking up even more than usual lately, we are likely on the precipice of several major Russian losses (thanks to the MOD). ​
I'm as happy about the Bakhmut win as anyone, but this thread's gone to shit lately and has become as circlejerky as the 5D-chess crowd (all the big pro-Z twitter accounts). Little-to-no mention in this thread about the attack on the Kremlin, how 1.5 years into this war Ukraine is still shelling Donetsk city, the grain deal, how Russia hasn't advanced in 8 months besides Wagner in Bakhmut, etc. etc.

Ukraine bombed the Kremlin, and Russia's 'response' was to extend the grain deal another 2 months. Russia continues to supply Ukraine with over 40% of its oil, the bulk of its petrochemical/chemical needs, and much of its food. The Dnieper bridges remain standing.

I remain convinced that the RU MOD is actively trying to lose the war, but gracefully. One part of the Pentagon leaks that nobody in the pro-Z twitter sphere (or here) mentioned was the claim that the entire RU MOD is compromised with numerous spies at the highest levels, and that US officials (and by extension, Ukraine) are preemptively informed of all missile strikes by Russia. 6 months of this thread spamming the Air Raid Siren maps of Ukraine almost every night, and what is there to show for it? When was the last time a RU missile killed a big number of UA troops? All that circlejerking ended up resulting in nothing actually happening besides the 2 ammo depot explosions (Pavhlorad/Khmelnitsky), which conveniently had zero UA troops guarding them at the time and all UA officials evacuated beforehand, and all they did was excuse the West to send even more weapons.

Russia has no plans for any offensive and there really is only bad times from here on out. At least the Kremlin extended the grain deal again!

Shoigu and Gerasimov should be hanged.
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Several of the events you're talking about occurred when the forums were down, technically the site is up via Tor but there are periods of time where the thing moves at a fucking crawl and I'm not bothering to do video or image dumps under such circumstances. Sure the drone knocked the flag off the top of the Kremlin, what else can we say about it that wasn't already talked about on Twitter/Telegram/Media? Its superficial damage and Putin doesn't live there. Donetsk City is still getting shelled because the area around it has ossified into one of the most hellish defensive potions on the planet, even WW1 no-mans-land is often safer because the artillery couldn't watch you in real time via drone and smoke your ass. Avdiivka will be one of the last areas in the Donetsk City area to fall, mainly due to the logistics chain further up being destroyed rather than it being captured via frontal assaults. The grain deal isn't stupidity by Russia, its actually quite brilliant and supremely necessary for Russia to maintain good standing with friendly nations in Africa, the whole reason the US and NATO are eating shit diplomatically is because Russia is taking the hard path to ensure North Africa and Middle East has food stuffs delivered, these nations friendly to Russia know damn well that it would be more logical for Russia to cut this off and buckle one of the last vestiges of Ukrainian economic activity, but they aren't, and its greatly appreciated by these nations.

As for the Dnieper Bridges, I have no real answer to that, it makes sense to snarl logistics by dropping them all, this would wither the Ukrainian army on the Eastern side of the Dnieper, the only thing I can speculate is that Russia has ulterior motives in that they want Ukraine to come meet them in the field and die in large numbers. Someone mentioned turning over regions to guerrilla activity, this is what I speculate Russia is trying to avoid. Have the Ukr army line them up in half assed slapped together units and hurl them into well designed killzones over and over until the nation has absolutely nobody left to grind.

Airstrikes aren't going to be getting large numbers of troops killed, nor are they going to make flashy explosions nonstop. Strategic bombing is a long term boa-constrictor effect on nations, in the pre-smartbomb era the pilots would rant and rave about target exhaustion and "making rubble bounce" since the ability to hit the actual target was so poor. Guided munitions obviate the need to continuously run missions, the factory gets its roof blown open on the first go and the interior gets gutted by fire. Three to Six months later the factory may be partially operating again, and due for a new strike. Humans have always learned from past screw ups and each time we go to war we're better than the last time, guided munitions have been a threat since the late 80s early 90s and humanity has observed and learned enough to mitigate the worst effects of it by scattering equipment and munitions into smaller holdings rather than the more successful and logistic friendly centralized hub. Ukraine is effectively a zombie state at this point, nearly everything is imported from abroad so strategic bombing has very little effect to begin with. Even the US during the Iraq War and even the most recent ISIS campaign did not have the capability to nail every single truck or minivan moving munitions, only when ISIS would move in convoys did the high profile air campaign stuff come into play with A-10 strafing dozens of cars, otherwise the Iraq Insurgents and ISIS moved weaponry unmolested.

There are a lot of questions about strategy, but ultimately nobody here can answer them, merely speculate. As for the future, I've said before that I expect Wagner to exit for a minimum of a half year or more, no idea if the Russian army has the capability or interest in advancing any time soon, we may just end up in a stalemate where the lines just go cold as both sides entrench until advances are just not worth the squeeze, something that was my prediction since summer 2022.
 
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ForTheHoard said:
I don't think that applies when an explosion pulverizes the DU into dust that gets blown up into the atmosphere.
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No, even then. U238 is an alpha emitter (radiation is absorbed by 5cm of air, your epidermis or a paper tissue) and has a half-life of 10^9 years (which both means that it's not particularly active and that any decay products will be minimal). The only way to get a significant radiation dose from U238 is to inhale it.

Inhaling a significant amount of dust is not physically possible unless you're in the battlefield. Let's say you have 1 ton (an absurdly huge amount, it wouldn't even be 1% of that) of U238 and you completely atomize it. After it spreads out around the area of a city (let's say Bakhmut with 42km2) the dust concentration will be at best 20ug/m3. Breathing in that dust for a full month will lead to 25mSv/year, less than the occupationally allowed (i.e. harmless) yearly dose of 50mSv/year.

In reality it'll be much more dilute (larger area and less dust). It's not worth worrying about.
 
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Here's a scenario I've been thinking about this week:

Could Ukraine nuke the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine? What would be the legality of it? Would it trigger a larger international response? Could Russia respond with equal force or would that trigger ww3? How could Russia respond without it causing WW3?
 
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Bog-standard Poster said:
Here's a scenario I've been thinking about this week:

Could Ukraine nuke the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine? What would be the legality of it? Would it trigger a larger international response? Could Russia respond with equal force or would that trigger ww3? How could Russia respond without it causing WW3?
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"Could a non-NATO member nuke another non-NATO member, and could that offended party likewise retaliate?"

Yes? I don't see why not, though I don't think Ukr has nukes.
 
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Useful_Mistake said:
"Could a non-NATO member nuke another non-NATO member, and could that offended party likewise retaliate?"

Yes? I don't see why not, though I don't think Ukr has nukes.
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Ukraine wouldn't technically be nuking Russia, but an invading, aggressive, attacking force. Ukraine would be nuking Ukraine. How does that land in the international court of MAD? Would other nations rush to press their buttons or would the UN shift and shuffle in their seats, looking uncomfortable about the situation, but do nothing other than condemn it?

If Ukraine said "We are going to Nuke X area/city on friday at 12pm, evacuate or else", what could Russia do? If they, as a foreign enemy, nuked a foreign country, that's ww3 for sure.
Nuking your own country isn't a cause for war though. Russia, China, NK and US have all nuked their own land without much of a fuss.

This is more of a thought experiment/wondering what the ramifications would be in this highly unlikely scenario.
 
Bog-standard Poster said:
Here's a scenario I've been thinking about this week:

Could Ukraine nuke the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine? What would be the legality of it? Would it trigger a larger international response? Could Russia respond with equal force or would that trigger ww3? How could Russia respond without it causing WW3?
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The Ukraine doesn't have nukes, but the US does, so any nukes used ostensibly by the Ukraine are really American nukes, or if French/British, still NATO and done at the behest of the US, and with its blessing.

Once nukes are in the air no one will care about legalities; what would be the point? A trial at the Hague when the radiation dies down in a hundred years?

Russia would respond by letting its nukes fly, and so would everyone else. WW3 if you prefer to call it that. I don't know where you live but Russia still has bunkers and facilities stocked and maintained for its citizens for this very scenario. The USA decided to decommission its shelters so the plebes are on their own.

Guess whose population would survive in greater numbers?
 
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T
Unamused Bounty Hunter said:
Why would you want to nuke your own territory and people that you plan to rule over?
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The East Slavic spectrum are people beyond western man's comprehention. Ukraine is a special case at that.

Being the bastard child of a balding kike with german connections, Saloland is, akin to gender challenged western youth, are self-loathing entitled egoistic flaming faggots, you can't fix this all due to decades of indoctrination that many generations of natives of that land have come through, they would be more than happy to sacrifice themselves, just like faggot pollacks that tongueswirl that hohol asshope for it to be as clean as the tear of an infant, to any kind of environmental disaster, natural or manmade in its nature, would happily come through decimation, genocide, holocaust, they are the sacrificial lamb of the higher bidder because of their artificially encrypted hatred toward themselves and their tricolor neighbor (yes I imply both Belarus and Russia at this point, by one sentence).
Most of them have relatives in Russia. But make no mistake, almost every hohol have denounced their Russian part of the family all because their (hohol) retarded government decided to fuck around and find out that sucking that aids riddled pedophile dysfunctional cock wasn't a proper choice. I don't say sticking to us was right either, but it was told countless times that Ukraine can and may do the right choice and just be in the middle, not flirting with both sides and just do bussiness, straight and strict.

But no. #WEWUZARYANSANDBLYAT #DEATHTOKATSAPS and all other bullshit pouring up from them whore mouth.
 
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Bog-standard Poster said:
Here's a scenario I've been thinking about this week:

Could Ukraine nuke the Russian occupied areas of Ukraine? What would be the legality of it? Would it trigger a larger international response? Could Russia respond with equal force or would that trigger ww3? How could Russia respond without it causing WW3?
Click to expand...
Ukies would be nuking everything left and right if they had an opportunity. Luckily they don't have nukes since Budapest Memorandum and it's very unlikely western countries will provide it to them.
 
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Feline Supremacist said:
Legalizing weed has has unintended consequences for the spook community. This is what they're putting out: View attachment 5133321 Yes, its a real tweet. Edit: This just in: Deputy MoD of Ukraine makes statement about Wagner in Artemovsk, formerly known as Bakhmut. View attachment 5133328 :story:
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Great battle plan, what do you call it?

The circle of life(less)


Useful_Mistake said:
"Could a non-NATO member nuke another non-NATO member, and could that offended party likewise retaliate?" Yes? I don't see why not, though I don't think Ukr has nukes.
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Ukraine is totally going to take over Russian nuclear missile silos because that's definitely and totally a thing. And not just in movies.
 
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