Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[WhiteNight]

Blowing the dam is a card that can only be played once. In the short term it creates a military obstacle (to say nothing of the humanitarian crisis), but in the longer term the threat of blowing it, which might have deterred many military actions, is gone. That opens possibilities for Ukraine in any future counteroffensives.

As a bonus it seems Zeihan ran into some vatniggers on Twitter. It's pretty cringey that he is ragging on Elon Musk and blaming him for the vatniggers. Also equally cringey that he calls the vatniggers Russian bots and trolls then claims the Russians are paying some people to troll for them.

Zeihan is an odd case. The way he talks with his dramatic slowdowns and emphasis is grating, and also he hasn't noticed there's another k in Kakhovka, but more substantively his analyses are of some value but should be treated with caution due to his ideological biases. As an example, he raised a stink about Giorgia Meloni, throwing out the usual reckless buzzwords neo-fascist and proto-fascist:

I agree with him that the loss of irrigation water is likely to be devastating to Ukraine's food production, although an actual famine would only happen if Russia holds on to the territory and continues its policy of not giving a fuck about civilians.

As for Anders Puck Nielsen, if you watch his personal Mastodon instance, it's filled with woke, feminist, and anti-Musk anti-Twitter shrieking mixed in with his military content. At least he keeps that stupidity out of his videos, which are focused and generally quite good.

 

[Gorillion others]

"Ukraine is about to bring in the thunder!" - some mouthbreather who reads the Dailymail.

 

[Ghostse]

I'll laugh if this turns into another route. I'm assuming it won't, but it'd be hilarious if it did.

It is next to impossible we'll see another route like Kharkiv.
Russia has generally given better orders (And threats) to field officers and the front is much more stable than last november - the Russians were still trying to attack Kharkiv city when they got counterpushed, so Ukraine was able to exploit the general confusion that follows an attack (and magnified by the fact this is Russia doing it) to get commanders to panic and behave in a non-strategic manner.
The Moskva was not fatally damaged by the Neptunes, the failure of the crew to do appropriate damage control in time is what did the ship in. In Khakiv, the Russians had positions that could have held out for days or weeks even if completely cut off, but they cut and ran believing they were about to be encircled.

During Kharkiv, Ukraine was also able to get light elements deep into Russian territory to attack forward elements from the rear - forward positions now have covering elements in reinforced cover that would make trying similar hit-and-run attacks from the rear with technicals nearly impossible/suicidal.

Most likely what we're seeing in that video is troops abandoning front-line trenches to fall back to reinforced positions. In a competent military this would be a established and well-communicated plan for when a known and expected counter attack happens, But its Russia so who knows.

Blowing the dam is a card that can only be played once. In the short term it creates a military obstacle (to say nothing of the humanitarian crisis), but in the longer term the threat of blowing it, which might have deterred many military actions, is gone. That opens possibilities for Ukraine in any future counteroffensives.

Correct; if Ukraine does a crossing action Russia no longer has a dam to blow to flood it out. Ukraine also might have avoided the area around the dam for fear of damage, or otherwise been making their opening focus on taking the Dam to prevent its destruction, that is no longer something they need to consider.
Its a huge strategic blunder, and the fact they did it shows just how vulnerable they considered Kherson oblast & how worried they are about a repeat of the Kharkiv rope-a-dope.

As for Anders Puck Nielsen, if you watch his personal Mastodon instance, it's filled with woke, feminist, and anti-Musk anti-Twitter shrieking mixed in with his military content. At least he keeps that stupidity out of his videos, which are focused and generally quite good.

Typical Eurocuck.
No opinion is so right it can't be held by the wrong people, etc.

The effects of the flooding would still be going on. Zeihan and other people said even after the water is gone the areas downstream where the Ukrainians wanted to cross would be turned to mud and they would stay that way for weeks.

As early as late or even mid summer a river crossing would be feasible if suitable areas for bridging could be located. Russia literally used their one-time-only move to remove the Southern Front from the strategic considerations for a few weeks,

Hilariously, this might make the crossing easier for Ukraine; tl;dr Russian artillery will not be able to function in the bog that Russia has expanded, and will need to pull back futher from the banks. This means they will have an easier time bridging the main channel of the river - again, assuming they can locate a bridgehead. They would need to fight out from the bridgehead through freshly created bog. Not an easy thing to do, but that's an easier task than crossing a river under fire.

 

[JosephStalin]

Those older built F-16s have been getting rebuilt and zero hour to latest model currently in use. So barring any tech Uncle Sam and Euros may not want to risk, Ukrainian Air Force won't be getting unmodified worned out F-16s.

Yup. Same thing with the tanks; they'll be refurbished to a certain standard. Heck, we've been flying the B-52s seemingly forever, again, getting rebuilt/modified/updated. There isn't a single B-52 that isn't older than its' crew.

 

[JosephStalin]

They're not fleeing; it's a good-will gesture!

I'll laugh if this turns into another route. I'm assuming it won't, but it'd be hilarious if it did.

Once again, shades of June 1941. Russia unable to protect borders, least in certain areas. Russian soldiers running away. Moscow being directly attacked. Russians fleeing one of their own cities.

Putin needs to do the smart thing, declare victory and leave all of Ukraine. Things aren't going to improve. Ukrainians will never quit, level of support from the West/others only increasing.

 

[Glowie]

Are there viable options to cut off Bakhmut instead of attacking it directly?

Encircling Bakhmut, regular Russian army can't organise or defend worth a damn. Ukraine are wrecking weak Russian flanks in Bakhmut right now

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

According to a UA war reporter, Yurii Butusov, the Leopard 2 tank (that exploded on a mine during the offensive near Mala Tokmachka in Zaporizhzhia region) has been evacuated from the battlefield & will be repaired.
The tank crew is alive & ready to fight, according to Butusov.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Blowing the dam also may have an intangible effect that's hard to quantify. Military Esprit de Corps. I have to imagine that the Ukrainian soldiers going into this offensive have all seen what has happened to Kherson region. Quite a few may be having a "Starship Troopers" moment right now.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Mariupol is different situation; I haven't tried to sort through the intelligence but I had heard Melitopol was a more likely candidate. Minus a Kharkiv like rollup, Mariupol is probably a bridge (or three) too far for this year. Hell, Melitopol might be too ambitious.

Melitopol is the more likely target since its closer to the front. It also seems to be the HQ for the southern Russian forces. Taking it means that Ukraine doesn't have to run all the way to the coast to cut off Crimea, as all the rail lines and roadways go through there and there is a bay to the south of the city that cuts inland, preventing any major resupply south of it. Maruipol is a good stretch goal. However, Ukraine has to take one of them this year. Anything less will be spun as a victory by Russia and be a hit both to local morale and potentially to international support, as it may cause some nations to lose faith in Ukraine's ability to dislodge the Russians from the South.

It is next to impossible we'll see another route like Kharkiv.

A lot is going to depend not so much on Russian command, but the Russian troops themselves. Russia's forces are majority conscripts these days, with little to no training, no morale, and, in many cases, even a lack of standard basic equipment. These forces have never really been pressed in a large scale counteroffensive, so a lot of what happens will depend on their ability to hold the line in the face of overwhelming attack. If Ukraine attacks everywhere at once, many units will probably break, whether ordered to hold or not, which is what Ukraine is counting on, and why they've put so much effort in training their own forces. Southern Ukraine, unlike other parts of the front, has no natural obstructions; no hills, forests, rivers, canals, etc. Its just straight flatland. What geographers would call "Eurasian steppe". It will come all the way down to whatever fortifications the Russians have made, and their troops raw ability to hold the front, which hasn't been well demonstrated.

 

[Scout Trooper]

Does this picture seem a little, uh, odd to anyone else?

https://www.instagram.com/p/CtRUqi7Me58/?igshid=MzRlODBiNWFlZA==

(archive)

 

[jalopy]

Ryan MacBeth made a video about the Kakhovka dam collapse. The interesting part is that he purchased commercial satellite footage for the video.

Spoiler: Satellite Pics

Pic below is also June 2nd, wider shot. Ryan notes the overtopping across the length of the dam.

Ryan's conclusion is that a scourhole caused by dumping the water from only one point and the overtopping caused the dam to give way.
He believes that if there was an explosive involved it would have been incredibly powerful and would be picked up by seismic monitors.
The pic from Norway going around does not show a complete analysis of different wave forms but seismic data should be able determine the cause of the collapse.

 

[Not At All A Lizard]

The reason people are reporting it as an explosion isn't so much the graph, it's seismologists testimony interpreting the event on the graph as an explosion. I'd guess the problem, and why there isn't a more thorough analysis, is that in earthquake terms the explosion is so weak (they're saying 1-2 in magnitude) and brief, that there's going to be some room for interpretation always.

Maybe they'll be able to wheel out a comparison with the known collapse of a large structure vs a known explosion, but I'd wager that they all show up vastly differently on a seismograph, there are so many parameters that go into it.

Also, the US is claiming to have IR footage of the dam from spy satellites showing the actual explosion, but I don't think that's out yet. If it is what they say it is it will be much more convincing.

 

[AgendaPoster]

He believes that if there was an explosive involved it would have been incredibly powerful and would be picked up by seismic monitors.

It was, at least this is what Romania and Norway I think are saying.

 

[Yttrium]

View attachment 5152108

They need to send a couple of these bday boys in

 

[World in Scarlet]

Does this picture seem a little, uh, odd to anyone else?

I've seen NAFO people try to claim it is, but it looks pretty legit and seems universally accepted by serious people.
I appended a couple more pictures of Ukrainian losses and a video, though there's some more but it's not my field. My source for these is Ukraine Weapons Tracker. I also recommend scrolling through the subtweets for these things to see what people say. For example there is a lack of bodies around the NATO stuff and the doors are open, meaning the crews probably got away.

It's normal to suffer losses on the offensive and since the Ukrainians have a media blackout, we only get to see what the Russians publish about the situation. This includes real pictures, but also photoshopped ones. At the moment they seem to focus on filming/photographing the same vehicle(s) from different angles and at different times and counting it multiple times as destroyed, and, bizarrely, publishing footage of helicopter launched missiles impacting a couple meters from their target and the target even driving away afterwards in one of them (in the other it looks undamaged too).

In other news, Russians are shelling evacuation routes and shooting at people trying to rescue people from roofs. Russians claim Ukrainians do the same, but there is no evidence for their claims while there are several videos of Ukrainian civilians being almost hit by explosions while helping people. There's also reports of Russian authorities being more than sluggish trying to help people on their side of the river, not allowing people to leave, and trying to extort money from people to let them go or help them.
There's no evidence for those either but it sounds pretty par for the course for the Russians.

 

[Scout Trooper]

I've seen NAFO people try to claim it is, but it looks pretty legit and seems universally accepted by serious people.
I appended a couple more pictures of Ukrainian losses and a video, though there's some more but it's not my field. My source for these is Ukraine Weapons Tracker. I also recommend scrolling through the subtweets for these things to see what people say.

It's normal to suffer losses on the offensive and since the Ukrainians have a media blackout, we only get to see what the Russians publish about the situation. This includes real pictures, but also photoshopped ones. At the moment they seem to focus on filming/photographing the same vehicle(s) from different angles and at different times and counting it multiple times as destroyed, and, bizarrely, publishing footage of helicopter launched missiles impacting a couple meters from their target and the target even driving away afterwards in one of them (in the other it looks undamaged too).

In other news, Russians are shelling evacuation routes and shooting at people trying to rescue people from roofs. Russians claim Ukrainians do the same, but there is no evidence for their claims while there are several videos of Ukrainian civilians being almost hit by explosions while helping people. There's also reports of Russian authorities being more than sluggish trying to help people on their side of the river, not allowing people to leave, and trying to extort money from people to let them go or help them.
There's no evidence for those either but it sounds pretty par for the course for the Russians.

Excellent research, thanks.

They looked like genuine disabled vehicles but the orientation and proximity made me think that they might have been dropping them off at a recovery point of some kind.

That AFV Recognition guy was throwing a tantrum about the commanders allowing the vehicles to maneuver so close with zero acknowledgement that you know, they might have gotten there at different times.

I don't know what kind of retard sees a backwards-facing vehicle and assumes it must have been driving in the same direction at the same time as the other vehicles.

 

[No. 7 cat]

More Broadly, NATO does technically allow for member states to go off the reservation. There is nothing in the NATO charter that prohibits a country going to war on its own initiative. The corrolary though is that country has to deal with the consequences alone.

It has been said by one of the Baltic FMs that if the security guarantees were too weak there'd be Eastern Euro boots on the ground (and it'd be only them as otherwise even semi credible militaries like France or the UK are already overstretched and under funded. Trump mightn't be reading the overall situation too well, but as POTUS he was trying to get Euros to spend money as they are doing now very belatedly with the wolf at the door), maybe as 'volunteers' Spanish Civil War style where, say, Italy deployed full scale military forces as 'volunteers'.

View attachment 5155578

One Ukrainian on social media asked regarding her response whether she just turned on the internet. Despite the fame of that autistic scold and orchestrated activism (like agreeing with German police to be arrested in a rough way for the cameras) she's likely sheltered by her parents given her condition. Her denouncing Putin would also count as Russian propaganda if they were clever. Their stuff is just like their bread and butter military tactics, low efforts but very intensive fire.

 

[Ghostse]

View attachment 5156233
View attachment 5156234

Once again, a mission or mobility kill (or even a crew kill) on a tank is not a total kill as long as you have control of the area to do recovery.

They looked like genuine disabled vehicles but the orientation and proximity made me think that they might have been dropping them off at a recovery point of some kind.

Its hard to tell from pictures with context either missing or deliberately scrubbed, but I would agree that looks like a recovery dump; none of those vehicles look particularly fucked up; they all have their turrets which is more than can be said for most Russian tanks.

 

[WhiteNight]

Once again, a mission or mobility kill (or even a crew kill) on a tank is not a total kill as long as you have control of the area to do recovery.

For those who missed it last year, Perun has an informative video which covers this topic, particularly with a 20 minute segment from the Chieftain which goes over the details and different levels of armored vehicle repair in battle conditions:

 

[World in Scarlet]

*snip*

I just want to add that Ukraine also operates these.