Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[AgendaPoster]

That contest was already lost after the 2013/2014 revolution. Russia is a dying empire, it's a totalitarian shithole where people are jailed for the slightest wrongthink, nowhere outside Moscow or St Petersburg gets any funding, economy is shit, demographics are worse than China and freefalling into national suicide, and what little wealth there is gets pillaged by corrupt oligarchs.

It's a socially, morally and economically bankrupt state. It doesn't stand for anything. Even the Church is just an organ of state repression. Its only purpose seems to be to continue existing and escape its death spiral. That's not the same kind of visionary idealism that attracts countries to the US and EU, where even if you dislike them, they DO stand for things many people want - freedom, democracy, prosperity etc.

Even as this is mostly true, it's important to remember that Russia is still the largest country on the planet (landmass, I think, not population), and still has nukes, and is still able to resist the gorrillionth sanctions levied against it. Also worth remembering that countries seething against the US and in general against the West because of its colonial past will either implicitly or explicitly support Russia. They might be shitholes, mostly, but they exist and will be part of a close future population boom. Yes, horrifying, I know.
With all its apparent and obvious weaknesses, Russia is able and will likely continue to be able to roll over smaller countries nearby (if they do not get timely help/are not determined enough to pay the huge blood price to resist). That makes it incredibly dangerous, less so for the US directly, but more for the EU and many US allies, and also for the US-led "rules based world order" that's kinda showing its age these days.
Never underestimate Russia. There will be plenty of time to mock it and shit on it... after we win.
Underestimating it leads to overconfidence, the type that sends armor into action without also supplying the air force necessary to suppress Russian artillery and debilitate Russian armor so your tanks and other vehicles have an easier job without having to struggle through a rain of missiles and shells.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Current vanik cope seems to be that "okay well these gains aren't the REAL lines of defense!"

It's a war of attrition.

You can't unilaterally declare something a war of attrition.

It doesn't matter how many tanks Russia has if they don't have the crew to man them. Your "war of attrition" isn't viable, because Russia doesn't have the ability to train crews to replace a loss of - being generous and assuming half the knock-out crews survive - something like 80 people a week. Training a competent crew for a tank requires an investment of time and money, which is why it took almost a year for Ukraine to bring even its relatively small cadre up to speed. If you honestly believe that Russia can somehow magic up the crew necessary to bring even a fraction of those 15000 "available" tanks into threatre, you're hitting the real good stuff. Frankly, I think you should share.

That number, which is funny because the pre-war estimate was closer to 10K but vatniks seem to have upped the numbers, includes shit like T-62 and T-55, even early model and poorly-stored T-72.
Its also an overestimation, as it doesn't account for Mr Viktor Bout and similar characters who auctioned off old Soviet gear for money while keeping them there on paper. Nor does it account for existing casualties in Ukraine, something to the tune of 2K+.
It also assumes that every tank is in working order. Even if the armor is there, does the engine run? does the transmission work right? does the radiator still function when pressed at high speeds? Is there enough ammo in storage and is that ammo in good working condition?

Even if you assume all of those tanks are there , and there in perfect running condition; it still doesn't mean you have the crews to man them OR the proper logistical equipment to get them to the front.

(Rail lines which, oh hey, Ukrainian partisans and drones are sabotaging btw)

 

[Snekposter]

Even if the armor is there, does the engine run?

Have I got something for you guys. So, for the T-54/55 the Soviets uprated the T-34 engine to 580 horsepower. Now naturally some of the gearing couldn't quite handle it. So instead of properly redesigning the gears to handle the stress, decided to just shove some oversized gears in the thing and let them grind themselves down to a point where they could be considered maybe acceptable. Naturally this meant for any rebuilt engine or factory fresh engine they'd need to put it in the tank, let it run for a while on idle until it stopped trying to kill itself, and then drain the oil, have the junior crewman scrape out the sump tank that was now filled with metal shavings, and then fill the whole thing back up with oil and hope it wouldn't crap out on them under stress. Now obviously they did fix that with later engines, so chances are good the T-55's that have intact or more modern engines are fine, but given what Russian QC is like I'd be reluctant to accept a brand new engine considering the factory may very well have gone back to the early gear designs in an attempt to cut costs and increase production counts.

After all, these are the same people who decided that in 1941 T-34 transmissions didn't need heat-treated gears, not when they could just produce twice as many gears in the same time frame by skipping that rather essential process for creating hardened steel.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

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[Scout Trooper]

View attachment 5163965

I don't know much about this stuff but isn't there a minimum strength/hardness of the surface those are mounted on so that it doesn't blow that apart too?

 

[Thomas Talus]

I don't know much about this stuff but isn't there a minimum strength/hardness of the surface those are mounted on so that it doesn't blow that apart too?

The machine spirits will provide.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

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View attachment 5164031

Anyone with enough real experience to comment on this? I would've thought ARMA 3 to be a better simulator than STALKER, much as I love the latter.

 

[mindlessobserver]

So, now that we've had a week of shit actually happening, I can actually make an assessment of what is going on. Right now, Ukraine is taking heavy losses, yes. Because right now they are conducting reconnaissance in force. The second most dangerous and complicated maneuver after retreat under fire. They are trying to find out where the Russians are located, what there artillery response times are, and where they could potentially break through.

The actual break through objectives are obvious though, which means this is going to be a hard campaign.

In Zaporizhia, the objective is Tokmak. In Donetsk its either Mariople or Bahkmut, while up in Luhansk/Kharkiv, its Kremina and Severedonetsk. The question for Ukraine is which objective is likely to be taken, and how should they be approached if feasible. Thus far the bulk of the fighting has NOT be conducted by Ukrainian Armor, despite Russiaboo claims of destroying all the things. The only sign of western equipment was an attempt to clear a minefield that ended badly, and led to the loss from visual assessment of a couple leopards and Bradley's. Embarrassing, yes, but hardly the end of the world. The bulk of the fighting has actually be conducted by the Territorial Guards backed up by Ukrainian Marines and Air Assault forces from the regular military.

this Forbes article actually breaks down whats going on pretty well by identifying the units involved. On the Mariople axis of Advance, the spear head was actually done by Two Brigades of the Territorial Guard, bolstered by a Marine Battalion, and then further by Air Assault forces when they began to make gains.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidaxe/2023/06/13/ukrainian-paratroopers-join-the-marines-thundering-south-along-the-mokri-yaly-river/?sh=283d48e67497

So, the Russians are being accurate in that there is heavy losses. I imagine forcing what amounts to the National Guard into Reconnaissance in Force is going to lead to some really nasty body counts. Ukraine however is clearly following the "break eggs to make the omelet" method. Ukraine s exposing Russia's defensive positions and posture by wasting the third raters of the Ukrainian Army in shaping operations, which will inevitably mean the Ukrainians will know where to really bring the hammer down eventually.

At the moment against all expectations, this may mean a drive towards Mariople instead of Tokmak and Melitipol. Either way, the best case scenario for Ukraine is regain access to the Sea of Azov and break the Russian Front in twain, so I expect much of the shit up north is fixing operations to keep the troops there pinned down so the real effort can be applied in the south.

 

[Snekposter]

Anyone with enough real experience to comment on this? I would've thought ARMA 3 to be a better simulator than STALKER, much as I love the latter.

Ballistics is ballistics. Once you learn how to judge something by eye and memory, its extremely easy to repeat it. Especially for something as simple as just putting something at a correct angle and then pulling the trigger. I've never used a grenade launcher but I can attest that for short-range shooting with more conventional firearms I have enough of a natural kinesthetic sense regarding posture and barrel alignment iron sights are distracting. Hell, I did some bolt-action CQB shit with a .30-06 while goofing around in the desert with family just for kicks to see if I was as good IRL as I was in the Payday 2 safehouse raid and I was damn fucking close with how rapidly I could orient, cycle, aim, and fire. You really do just develop an intuitive "feel" for it. Heck, IIRC there have been a few studies that show just visualizing performing certain physical actions in your mind over and over, especially those that rely on coordination, lays some extremely limited pathways similar to actually physically doing the task.

 

[Ghostse]

Anyone with enough real experience to comment on this? I would've thought ARMA 3 to be a better simulator than STALKER, much as I love the latter.

As @Snekposter said, ballistics is ballistics. All a game needs to do is model drop and draw distances correctly. With an underbarrel launcher, the distances aren't so extreme you need a full atmospheric pressure table.
I will also say, coincidentally, when it came to our rifle qualification, there was a huge difference in marksmanship between people who played America's Army and Counterstrike and the non-gaming normies.

That said, I'm pressing X because we never see the shit hit. Seems like a skit.

Have I got something for you guys. So, for the T-54/55 the Soviets uprated the T-34 engine to 580 horsepower. Now naturally some of the gearing couldn't quite handle it. So instead of properly redesigning the gears to handle the stress, decided to just shove some oversized gears in the thing and let them grind themselves down to a point where they could be considered maybe acceptable. Naturally this meant for any rebuilt engine or factory fresh engine they'd need to put it in the tank, let it run for a while on idle until it stopped trying to kill itself, and then drain the oil, have the junior crewman scrape out the sump tank that was now filled with metal shavings, and then fill the whole thing back up with oil and hope it wouldn't crap out on them under stress. Now obviously they did fix that with later engines, so chances are good the T-55's that have intact or more modern engines are fine, but given what Russian QC is like I'd be reluctant to accept a brand new engine considering the factory may very well have gone back to the early gear designs in an attempt to cut costs and increase production counts.

After all, these are the same people who decided that in 1941 T-34 transmissions didn't need heat-treated gears, not when they could just produce twice as many gears in the same time frame by skipping that rather essential process for creating hardened steel.

The T-55 variants were produced until the mid-80s for export, with I believe some of the worst issues in drive train resolved and some sight upgrades. I would imagine anything still making T-55 parts is using the later variants.

But again, Russia. who knows.

 

[East_Clintwood]

Ballistics is ballistics. Once you learn how to judge something by eye and memory, its extremely easy to repeat it.

It's very much the same with a 40mm. Once you have experience it becomes trivial to use without the stupid sights. The grenadiers in my section could drop a grenade through a specific window, on demand, with almost disgusting ease.

I've never used a grenade launcher but I can attest that for short-range shooting with more conventional firearms I have enough of a natural kinesthetic sense regarding posture and barrel alignment iron sights are distracting.

I have a similar sense, but in my case that's what threw me off on the rare occasion I was using a grenade launcher. Forcing my mind to switch gears from "this is a 5.56 going ~900m/s, so I need to do x" to "this is a 40mm going <90m/s so I need to do y" took a conscious effort, probably made worse by the fact we only used UGLs and my mind instinctively wanted to always hold the rifle like a rifle. If I used one more, or if we used a standalone launcher instead it might have gotten better, but fortunately for everyone concerned, there were others better suited to that role, which left me to do what I was better suited at.

 

[Snekposter]

As @Snekposter said, ballistics is ballistics. All a game needs to do is model drop and draw distances correctly. With an underbarrel launcher, the distances aren't so extreme you need a full atmospheric pressure table.
I will also say, coincidentally, when it came to our rifle qualification, there was a huge difference in marksmanship between people who played America's Army and Counterstrike and the non-gaming normies.

Turns out even if you don't know exactly how much to elevate by to adjust for drop you at least know you need to adjust for drop. So its less of a matter of teaching a new skill as it is applying an existing one to slightly different set of circumstances, which is much easier.

The T-55 variants were produced until the mid-80s for export, with I believe some of the worst issues in drive train resolved and some sight upgrades. I would imagine anything still making T-55 parts is using the later variants.

But again, Russia. who knows.

I'd still prefer one of the Czech models just because you know the workers only started drinking with lunch and not breakfast. And they're at least fully-literate and well-trained, unlike the Russian workers.

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

The Jews are rumored to be considering selling some of their old Mark 2 & 3 Merkava tanks to some random countries for unspecified reasons. Probably just want to clear up some warehouse space.

The US Department of Defense should soon approve to Israel the sale of hundreds of Merkava Mark 2 and 3 tanks that were manufactured in Israel in the 1980s and 1990s and have been decommissioned in recent years to two foreign countries, one of them in Europe, against the background of the war in Ukraine and the refinement to which classic armored war vehicles are being re-acquired. This is the first time that Merkava tanks will be sold to a European country.

The Ministry of Defense does not specify the names of the two countries that agreed on the purchase of more than 200 used Israeli tanks in light of the sensitivity involved, but the deal is on the verge of a final signature and is expected to be completed relatively immediately, within about three months. Officials at the Ministry of Defense told Ynet that since certain mechanical parts in these tanks are American-made, especially the engine, approval from the Ministry of Defense in Washington is required to carry out the transaction.

https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skugq500p2
https://archive.is/aU5rg

 

[jalopy]

The Jews are rumored to be considering selling some of their old Mark 2 & 3 Merkava tanks to some random countries for unspecified reasons. Probably just want to clear up some warehouse space.

I wonder if the second country for Merkava export is the Philippines, since they already have the bridge laying variant
Seems a very heavy and expensive tank for the Philippines, especially with South Korea probably willing to export the K2

Edit: Quote added

 

[Glowie]

The moral of course being that being Christian, or proclaiming ones self Christian, doesn't guarantee goodness or that their actions will be to anyone's benefit but their own.

Russian orthodoxy fell apart once it was highjacked by Putin's regime openly supported this war, ones who attend church willingly join or support their deluded crusade.

Not very Christian behaviour to wish bloodshed and make promises that only God can grant, pretty sure extensive war crime, looting, wide scale destruction and killing of innocents in his name doesn't Please him.

Russian orthodoxy is changed forever, schisms are bound to form and orthodox churches in other countries change too.

Being a servant of man (Putin) and god second. Such a man isn't fit for spiritual leadership.

Doubling down

Settle down cowboy

 

[Fuck It We'll Do It Live]

The Jews are rumored to be considering selling some of their old Mark 2 & 3 Merkava tanks to some random countries for unspecified reasons. Probably just want to clear up some warehouse space.
https://www.ynet.co.il/news/article/skugq500p2
https://archive.is/aU5rg

. . . to two foreign countries, one of them in Europe, against the background of the war in Ukraine and the refinement to which classic armored war vehicles are being re-acquired. This is the first time that Merkava tanks will be sold to a European country.

Hopefully it''s an European country that can now afford to offload more Leopard 2s to Ukraine, with the Merkavas being able to fill the gap.

 

[MS Paint Gigachad]

Hopefully it''s an European country that can now afford to offload more Leopard 2s to Ukraine, with the Merkavas being able to fill the gap.

It's gotta be Poland, with them seemingly trying to give all their tank maintenance guys aneurysms by collecting as many types of tank as possible..

 

[JosephStalin]

Found this, from Peter Zeihan. Russian demographics come 2025. Ideally, you want a pyramid shape here.

Russia = fucked. Sadly, Ukraine is no better. As an aside, learned the Chinese demographic bust happened much earlier than they first admitted.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

HIMARS strike kills over 100 troops waiting for their commander's speech

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Archive

Russian milbloggers have said their army is “at war with our own stupidity and sloppiness”, after reports emerged that as many as 100 of Moscow’s troops were killed when a Ukrainian strike struck a gathering of soldiers waiting for their commander to give a speech.

According to unconfirmed Russian sources, the massacre occurred near Kreminna in Luhansk Oblast when members of the 20th Combined Arms Army gathered in a large group not far from the front lines and in range of Kyiv’s HIMARS rockets for two hours.

Kyiv has not officially confirmed it was behind the strike but a Ukrainian official speaking on condition of anonymity, told Kyiv Post: “It's a really funny situation there. They stood in the open air for two hours listening to the speech.

“That is enough time to fix them, transport the HIMARS, enter the coordinates and hit them.”

Funny as it is, this is like what my last unit's CO would do on my final tour downrange.

During my first deployment with a different unit, we rarely had complete company formations for exactly that reason; to avoid being wiped out by some haji with a pace-count and a heads-up. Except for rare, special occasions, we only had platoon formations when Top & CO/XO would come down to the shop themselves.

But during that last trip, there were more than a few times when we were standing around the TOC or worksite as a company (both basically within sight of the wire), waiting for our CO to bless us with his presence, and I often thought about what would happen if an enterprising haji dropped a rocket or mortar in our midst. Nobody liked it & some probably complained; but that Urkel-looking nigger had a definite Napoleon complex. With a little luck & the proper warhead(s), a bodycount could've easily reached 100. Russians definitely don't have a monopoly on stupidity, it's almost like a genetic thing that most officers share.

 

[Ghostse]

HIMARS strike kills over 100 troops waiting for their commander's speech

I'm having one of those moments where this is both extremely hilarious "literal death by powerpoint" in an office space way, but also jesus christ imagine your last moments on earth being the weekend safety brief or some officer sucking themselves off at a promotion or change of command formation. They could have at least done the missile strike at the start of the speeches instead of two hours in.

Funny as it is, this is like what my last unit's CO would do on my final tour downrange.

Yeah that shit sounds familiar. As you said, being a self important dick degrading op sec and personal safety to feed your ego is not unique to Russia.