Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Elwood P. Dowd]

There is no such thing as victory in Afghanistan. The only way you could win in Afghanistan is by staying the fuck out of Afghanistan. It is from another time in a different dimension. This is a place that has been this way for 3,000+ years.

I know "Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires" is a popular meme tossed around, but I think its actually empires reach a stage in their lifecycle where they become so full of hubris they think they can actually go in there and tame the place.

Twenty years of American occupation resulted in the population doubling; so much for those genocidal Americans if nothing else. However, as I understand it they could barely feed themselves before this. Will be interesting to see how they work their way out of this, other than demanding Western gimmiedats, I suppose.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFG/afghanistan/population

Iran is currently pissed at Afghanistan over water issues, I could easily see this degenerating into a shooting war. Or, hell, Iran simply blowing up the dams holding the water back.

 

[WhiskeyJack]

Twenty years of American occupation resulted in the population doubling; so much for those genocidal Americans if nothing else. However, as I understand it they could barely feed themselves before this. Will be interesting to see how they work their way out of this, other than demanding Western gimmiedats, I suppose.

https://www.macrotrends.net/countries/AFG/afghanistan/population

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Iran is currently pissed at Afghanistan over water issues, I could easily see this degenerating into a shooting war. Or, hell, Iran simply blowing up the dams holding the water back.

Did the population actually double, or did having a US-funded Government census provide better population statistics?

 

[Elwood P. Dowd]

Did the population actually double, or did having a US-funded Government census provide better population statistics?

I have no idea, sorry. And I'm not sure how you'd find out such a thing. I do think stuff like this is as free from political shenanigans as you're likely to find in this day and age, if for no other reason than it is not the sort of thing people tend to look at much. Though perhaps I'm being naive.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

if the US/NATO cannot get air superiority in the next conflict for any number of reasons its going to be a very shocking event, these military and society are NOT designed to handle attrition like they did in the World Wars and the shock of getting quagmired in a war like the one in Ukraine would be hard to quantify how drastically it would shatter the social fabric of the US or NATO countries.

Harold Covington featured that prominently in his works and repeatedly stated that without the ability to bomb the fledgling white nationalist rebellion with impunity, ZOG was fucked as they did not and could not adapt to winning on the ground alone.

Unfortunately in his novels the resistance movement magically came up with an effective laser-based SAM system out of nowhere instead of, say, stealing enough MANPADs and hitting enough grounded planes.

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

Since I can't reply or quote attractive_pneumonia, I'll reply like this

The Iran-Iraq was was 8 years of conventional state on state warfare, with each side having pretty damn modern weapons and one side even getting the newest French stuff in terms of ECM, Precision guided munitions and anti ship missiles along with good Soviet SAMs.

The other had an extremely well equipped air force with some of the best jets the USA could make and excellent USA SAM systems.

They each had the EXACT same issues Ukraine and Russia are having in terms of ammunition use, equipment repair cycles, and even manpower/recruitment. Oh and each side though that they'd win the war very quickly.

As for the current Russo-Ukranian war, unlike Iran or Iraq, Russia can make most of what it's lost in the war. Ukraine cannot.

 

[Useful_Mistake]

Since I can't reply or quote attractive_pneumonia, I'll reply like this

Read this tutorial by Null

 

[marfusha]

Budanov came back from the dead. He does look like he had a date with a kalibr missile.

 

[Useful_Mistake]

This is who Ukraine wants to save them:

https://kiwifarms.st/threads/pentag...-media-for-mean-tweets-about-generals.166790/

 

[Your Favorite New Friend]

This is who Ukraine wants to save them:
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https://kiwifarms.st/threads/pentag...-media-for-mean-tweets-about-generals.166790/

It's a literal Hurt Feelings Brigade

 

[Secret Asshole]

This is who Ukraine wants to save them:
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https://kiwifarms.st/threads/pentag...-media-for-mean-tweets-about-generals.166790/

> Save them from embarrassment

lol, what are you going to do, save them from themselves? Better take their fucking Twitter accounts away because holy lol, I can't imagine anything more embarassing than the generals themselves.

 

[Got Milk!]

The usual (sorry for any reposts, watching posted vids is a bitch on Tor. Especially when you haven't been on for days) If nothing else, watch the last video:

Drone taking out a minesweeper:

Lotta nades getting dropped:

The work of a mlrs of the anti-faggot battalion:

Drone recovery in the wild:

Drone with a nice waterfront view:

Don't you hate it when you leave your door open and bugs get in?:

I'm totally taking out your crane with my superi... Oh fuck, nvm:

Superchad the RPG man:

Mines vs foot soldiers:

How to avoid the draft officer. Super effective method:

Кошка и собака stuff:

Big cat and dog join forces:

Me after 2 hours uploading on tor via mobile:

IF NOTHING ELSE, WATCH THIS VIDEO. Apparently Russians loaded a captured t55 to the gills with explosives including 6kg of TNT. They sent it directly towards a Ukrainian position on "auto pilot". It clipped a mine on the way back but a Ukrainian rpg finished the job. Makes a TOS-1 sunburst look like kiddie shit. Rybar posted a second usage of this tactic today but the video was disappointing after having seen this:

 

[CarlosDanger]

I hate the current administration as much as is legally possible (and even more than that in my heart), but the One China policy dates back to Nixon and is at least partially codified by the Taiwan Relations Act which exists specifically to stop the executive branch from making changes to US policy on Taiwan.

I agree but the problem is we have had demented Joe 2 or 3 times going around saying he would send US soldiers to die to defend Taiwan from China. So it is really a game of who do you believe and then you have to ask why there are two different opposing views and why Blinken said this and not Biden.

 

[tulskij_tochnyj]

I saw this cope on Twitter dot com. This is exactly the same cope that the Russian side was pushing during Bakhmut offensive. It was dumb then. it's dumb now.
The "attrition battle" was first tried by Germans at Verdun. "We have more artillery, better motivated soldiers and superb officer corps," - the generals from Oberste Heeresleitung thought - "we will trade with the French at a favorable rate and run them out of reserves". To say it didn't end well is an understatement.
In most cases, the attacking side takes higher losses at the breakthrough stage. Once the enemy line is broken, this "investment" is returned and multiplied during exploitation and envelopment/encirclement phases. If there's no breakthrough, attackers will suffer higher attrition than defenders, unless their tech is vastly superior ("machine-gunning Sudanese from steamboats"-levels of superior).
In case of Bakhmut, Wagniggers were losing more men for marginal gains right until they captured the high ground to the north and south of Bakhmut, enveloping it and gaining better spotting for their artillery. This happened in Jan-Feb, 2023 and at that point, clinging to Bakhmut was pointless (Ukrainian generals were preparing withdrawal at this time, but the Z-man decided to play Hitler for a while).
And the fact that the counteroffensive started immediately after Bakhmut means that "meatgrinder" has failed to drain reserves from AFU. Stellar job, Wagniggers.

Spoiler: Total Wagnigger death

If Putin had any foresight, he'd disband Wagner. In conventional wars, what means is the average level of soldiers and officers. Focusing on few "elite" formations drains motivated and capable men from regular units (who, realistically, will be doing most of the fighting). Yes, Waffen-SS were better equipped and motivated than Wehrmacht. They were also burning through (high quality) manpower and equipment like crazy, while Wehrmacht had to enlist literal boomers and was struggling to find replacements for experienced NCOs.
There are three situations when maxxing out "elite troops" works well:
1) You can only afford decent equipment for some of your units, i.e. you're a small but proud (sand)nigger country (example: Syrian T-I-G-G-E-R-S);
2) You only fight against such countries (USA, lol);
3) You're afraid of mutinies and want your Presidential Guard to outgun regular army (again, T-I-G-G-E-R-S, Iraqi Republican Guard)
Russia is neither of those.

 

[George Floyd Sneed]

The Soviet Union at least had a massive, and I mean massive, manpower reserve to fall back on to help make up for those mistakes.

Ukraine doesn't.

Sure they do, that’s where the United States/NATO forces come in.

Do you guys think that this war will end with one side's total victory or will it just drag on for years until everyone just kind of accepts that there is ocasional fighting and bombing.

There’s a few factors at play here:

1. There is no chance the borders will revert back before the war or 2014. This is unacceptable to the west.

2. There is no chance there will a coup or that Russia will disintegrate into several smaller countries. This is what the west considers to be a victory for them.

3. The West needs a victory against Russia to shore up its hegemony. The option to declare victory while withdrawing is therefore off the table.

4. The frozen border idea won’t work because Russia correctly surmises that the west will ignore the terms before the ink dries. So that’s off the table.

5. Zelensky has no say in the matter. He’s there to do a job and the minute he has an independent thought is the minute he will be fired and replaced by someone who understands the message. He’s in a no win situation and I bet he regrets running for office. Every move he makes is watched so he can’t even hang himself.

This all results in a long drawn out war with no end in sight. The only solution is the likes of Victoria Nuland and Robert Kagan get told to fuck off and chances of that happening are near zero, at least with all the current regimes in the west.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

Many years ago my own father dissuaded me from joining the military to kill Arabs in revenge for 9/11

Tear down their temples

That is what victory in Afghanistan would have taken.

Afghans are not Arabs, nor do they worship in temples. Afghans are Muslims who worship in mosques.

Also the nation of Afghanistan did not plan, finance or execute 9-11.

Al Qaeda was an organization created and financed by the USA that attracted disaffected Muslims from all over, but especially Arabs, to fight the USSR in Afghanistan, just like we're doing now in Ukraine with Russia. The head of Al Qaeda was a wealthy Saudi of Yemeni descent living in Afghanistan. After the Taliban succeeded in making the Soviets leave Afghanistan. Osama bin Laden turned on the US, who he also considered his enemy.

Afghanistan offered to arrest and try bin Laden as long as the US provided proof of his guilt. We refused, so we went to war not because Afghanistan was guilty but because we wanted bin Laden without exposing our clandestine agencies' shenanigans to the very people we exploited during the Cold War.

Your father is smart man.

 

[Ancient Pioneer]

That's a bit of "Bakhmut was never important" level cope. The Moskva helped provide 8 S300 batteries worth of air support to the southern region, at a time when the Ukranian airforce would otherwise be a viable threat to pro-Moscow forces. It was a real loss, and it is a tragedy how a ship Ukrainian and Russian hands built as brothers ended up destroyed by American organised hatred.

Ah were getting caught up in semantics. I'm saying the Moskva wasn't a globally known ship that was famous, ala the Bismark or one of the American aircraft carriers of today. The famous, or rather infamous ship of the Russian navy is the Admiral Kuznetsov, mainly because it gets towed around via tugboat since its such a shitbox, and belches fucking smoke everywhere. The Moskva was useful, very much so when it was sunk, but it wasn't famous.

The Iran-Iraq was was 8 years of conventional state on state warfare, with each side having pretty damn modern weapons and one side even getting the newest French stuff in terms of ECM, Precision guided munitions and anti ship missiles along with good Soviet SAMs.

I don't know why I always overlook this conflict, maybe because none of the major actors were participants in it directly. But yes, my point is that nobody really knows how to run long military campaigns and mate the logistics to it against near peer threats. NATO is finding that their land gear is just as fucking shit as Russian when it lacks air superiority, except that Russian doctrine is slightly less shit in this case because they made sure to keep a healthy amount of artillery and the logistics back end for it. There is a serious fucking question if the US is able to pull off a Desert Storm / 2003 Iraq style invasion now given that air defenses are improving so quickly, the opposition isn't using obsolete stuff like the S-200 and Bofors 40mm AA guns which were outdated by the time Desert Storm happened. There was a good 40-50 year period where the Soviet Union was in steep decline towards the tail end of Brezhnev's time, until its collapse all the way until maybe the late 2000s where new military gear wasn't being developed and deployed in large numbers by NATO's adversary. With China and Russia both becoming adversarial and being in reasonably healthy economic state there is serious effort being done to undermine NATO's air superiority advantage. Give it another decade and a half and the US military is likely going to find itself getting fucking hammered way beyond what it e+xpects when it decides to smoke some pissant middle tier nation of the day like Syria or Libya.

 

[Omen_Sulk]

Woman is astonished how many young man are partying in the streets of Lvov … without being conscripted.

 

[Cpt. Stud Beefpile]

Woman is astonished how many young man are partying in the streets of Lvov … without being conscripted.

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Unneeded or whistling past the graveyard?

 

[Feline Supremacist]

We are now in the war trophy timeline.

Американский MRAP Oshkosh M-ATV, захваченный штурмовым отрядом и танковой ротой 40-й бригады морской пехоты Тихоокеанского флота во время боев за Новодонецкий.

На данный момент автомобиль эвакуирован в тыл.

The American MRAP Oshkosh M-ATV, captured by an assault detachment and a tank company of the 40th Marine Brigade of the Pacific Fleet during the battles for Novodonetsky.

At the moment, the car has been evacuated to the rear.

Source : Военный Осведомитель

 

[ZMOT]

I know "Afghanistan is the graveyard of empires" is a popular meme tossed around, but I think its actually empires reach a stage in their lifecycle where they become so full of hubris they think they can actually go in there and tame the place.

it's like a meta-trap. once you get to the point you think you can subdue afghanistan (without glassing and depopulating the place, but then again why do it in the first place?), you should take a step back and re-evaluate everything (probably too late at that point), because there isn't really any reason to go in there otherwise.