Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

lmao

 

[the fall of man]

Let's assume Russia has lost Rostov on Don to the partisan menace for a moment. This is a catastrophe for the Russian Southern Front. with the Crimean route being severed by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, the Rostov Route is the only major supply corridor that supports Mariople and Melitipol. All other Rail and Highway Lines cut southwest from the Belgorod area through the Donbass and in range of Ukrainian Artillery.

If Prighozin is actually serious about what he is doing seizing Rostov is a fucking catastrophe for the Russian Army in Zaporizhia and Kherson. Their supply lines are cut.

Yes. It also makes all of Prigozhin's predictions correct

 

[Secret Asshole]

AI shitpost to kick off the civil war

View attachment 5176605

"HE IS VIGO"

It would be a dangerous gamble for Putin but it's not without precedent.

We sort of saw a more peaceful version of this in the George W. Bush administration's replacement of Donald Rumsfeld with Robert Gates. Rumsfeld's DoD was tarnished by the manipulation of the intelligence situation around Iraq's WMD program while CIA and the State Department had objected to DoD's (probably intentionally) sloppy analysis.

Although Gates wasn't at CIA at the time of the dispute, CIA was seen as more trustworthy in its handling of intelligence sources and cautious analysis (rightfully so).

I don't know if Putin sees Prigozhin as a potential replacement or if he's just the executioner to free Putin up to select a more competent replacement.

It would be suprtemely dangerous, but there's a lot of elements in the MOD that are dangerous as well.

I'm trying to quot @Secret Asshole and TOR won't let me. Consider this @ my quote text of his previous post.



You've been in the Russiaboo thread too long bro. Wagner was never "loyal to Russian Interests". Wagner was always loyal to Prighozins interests. Which for a long time now aligned with Putins interests. Ever since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia has been a Mafia state run by very powerful competing Oligarchs.

Prighozin being one of them. We jokingly call him "chef" because he had the contract for feeding the Russian Army for awhile, along with catering formal Kremlin Events. But that is HUGE. He provided the Army with FOOD, along with Kremlin Dignitaries for their parties. That was millions of dollars. Before that he ran black market casinos and criminal gangs. The man is a ruthless survivor, and no doubt his past made other fsctions within the Kremlin look down on him.

Which is precisely why Putin made him his "heavy". Prighozin was a nobody, and everyone knew it. So even if he had his own private Army he could not do shit with it. Perfect for Putin to create a new Boyar to balance out the other Boyars he had to keep in line.

The Ukraine War has changed the calculation. Its taken to long, the Boyars are losing money hand over fist, the army bogged down and Prighozin is now a war hero. His enemies in Kremlin probably moved against him and now its war.

Because Prighozing at his core has always been a gangster and a survivor. He's not loyal to Russia. He's loyal to staying alive.

Yes, Putin's interests ARE Russian interests. The idea that Putin is going to be deposed by Wagner is not feasible, as Wagner only has 10k-20k soldiers, and Putin would rather lose Ukraine than allow that to happen. Its also not likely the Russian army would go along with that. Him using the opportunity to clean his enemies in the MOD makes far more sense.

I mean it might be to depose Putin but I'm pressing X to severely doubt that. Its a ripe time for Wagner to remove their enemies in the MOD and burrow even deeper like a tick. Starting up a civil war with 20k is a fucking suicide mission. He's not yet made any demands or moved to Moscow means he's holding the supply routes hostage for now.

That's why I said "someone from the inside" - he may genuinely believe that changing leadership would be beneficial to Russia or doesn't believe it will change much but was offered something he wants in return.

Pretty much, yeah.

 

[draggs]

source

HOT YEVGENY SUMMER

Also

>Military unit with a German name takes over a Russian city

>It's like poetry, it rhymes

 

[World in Scarlet]

Putin took a gamble, which was that America had too open of a society and the West was too degenerate to prevent the Russian Federation from reclaiming the USSR's former glory.

It's always the same cope with autocratic pigsties.
>these wealthy westerners with their industry and comfortable living are weak and will instantly fold when pushed, getting beaten down and being brains retarded from malnutrition and alcohol abuse makes us vastly superior fighters and politicians
And then they get curb stomped by the well equipped degenerates.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

I mean it might be to depose Putin but I'm pressing X to severely doubt that. Its a ripe time for Wagner to remove their enemies in the MOD and burrow even deeper like a tick. Starting up a civil war with 20k is a fucking suicide mission.

Only if there's no internal support. If this is real, and, as of now, there's nothing indicating it isn't, then its quite likely that there are factions in high circles in Russia supporting what's happening. In that situation, there is no need to start a civil war. The military doesn't have to do anything but standby and watch how it all shakes out. And so far, that seems to be all they are doing.

Let's assume Russia has lost Rostov on Don to the partisan menace for a moment. This is a catastrophe for the Russian Southern Front. with the Crimean route being severed by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, the Rostov Route is the only major supply corridor that supports Mariople and Melitipol. All other Rail and Highway Lines cut southwest from the Belgorod area through the Donbass and in range of Ukrainian Artillery.

If Prighozin is actually serious about what he is doing seizing Rostov is a fucking catastrophe for the Russian Army in Zaporizhia and Kherson. Their supply lines are cut.

Assuming troops have enough supplies to last at least a month in ammo dumps near the front, the bigger issue maybe the merry hell that this is playing with the chain of command. There have already been reports of fighting amongst frontline Russian units and Wagner forces from Ukrainian troops.

 

[Null]

It's always the same cope with autocratic pigsties.
>these wealthy westerners with their industry and comfortable living are weak and will instantly fold when pushed, getting beaten down and being brains retarded from malnutrition and alcohol abuse makes us vastly superior fighters and politicians
And then they get curb stomped by the well equipped degenerates.

this is a really gay post. they got held back by other slavs, their brothers, with more modern equipment, training, and intelligence. ukraine has still lost territory and it remains unclear if they will get any more of it back.

we haven't seen a war yet where nato faggots have to do anything besides rape and murder brown people with total air superiority.

 

[Secret Asshole]

Only if there's no internal support. If this is real, and, as of now, there's nothing indicating it isn't, then its quite likely that there are factions in high circles in Russia supporting what's happening. In that situation, there is no need to start a civil war. The military doesn't have to do anything but standby and watch how it all shakes out. And so far, that seems to be all they are doing.

Yeah, nobody knows anything and whats happening right now is probably a lot of drunk and soon to be drunk Russians yelling demands at each other. Who knows what will happen. We probably won't know for a day or two at least.

 

[World in Scarlet]

The jannies have arrived. The fun is over.

 

[mindlessobserver]

Yes, Putin's interests ARE Russian interests. The idea that Putin is going to be deposed by Wagner is not feasible, as Wagner only has 10k-20k soldiers, and Putin would rather lose Ukraine than allow that to happen. Its also not likely the Russian army would go along with that. Him using the opportunity to clean his enemies in the MOD makes far more sense

You don't understand. It does not MATTER whose interests are Russias interests. Maybe Putin honestly cares about "Russia" as a concept. Even if all his actions since taking power has been of seeing "Russia" as a concept affirming "Putin" as a leader of a Great Power.

The problem is Putins Russia was never a cohesive State. Putin presided over a fucking cat convention that he ruled over through fear and favor. So long as he delivered, the others were content. there is no "state" here to be loyal too. There are people in Russia alive right now who have been made to salute 5 different flags in their life times.

There has always been idle speculation in this thread that the pressure of the war would rip these political fractures wide open. Today it's no longer idle speculation. Shoigu by all accounts moved against Wagner, Wagner staged a Mutiny, Regular units of the Russian Army refused to stop Wagner from seizing Rostov, Surovikin was forced (maybe at gunpoint) to beg, literally BEG Wagner to return to their barracks.

And it's all gone to shit. And do you know what the best part is?

State TV has claimed Putin has been BRIEFED on the situation. Lol. Lmfao.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Changes in the movement of urban transport will be introduced in Rostov-on-Don, said the head of the city administration Alexei Logvinenko.

According to Logvinenko, all necessary measures are being taken to ensure the life of the city.

Earlier, the governor of the Rostov region Vasily Golubev urged the citizens to refrain from going to the center of the city and not to leave their homes.

source: TASS
Other than that things are fine, I guess.

In other news:

 

[the fall of man]

this is a really gay post. they got held back by other slavs, their brothers, with more modern equipment, training, and intelligence. ukraine has still lost territory and it remains unclear if they will get any more of it back.

we haven't seen a war yet where nato faggots have to do anything besides rape and murder brown people with total air superiority.

Maybe the browns should invent total air superiority then and not expect us to do third world combat against human waves like mongol retards

 

[Snekposter]

Let's assume Russia has lost Rostov on Don to the partisan menace for a moment. This is a catastrophe for the Russian Southern Front. with the Crimean route being severed by ATACMS and Storm Shadow, the Rostov Route is the only major supply corridor that supports Mariople and Melitipol. All other Rail and Highway Lines cut southwest from the Belgorod area through the Donbass and in range of Ukrainian Artillery.

If Prighozin is actually serious about what he is doing seizing Rostov is a fucking catastrophe for the Russian Army in Zaporizhia and Kherson. Their supply lines are cut.

Well, shit. Now I really wonder if Ukraine didn't have a hand in this. Russian logistics are fucked, their lines in disarray, and Ukraine's been doing small, local probing attacks trying to find a weakspot...

 

[draggs]

Maybe the browns should invent total air superiority then and not expect us to do third world combat against human waves like mongol retards

shhhh, pathetic gay cope about how NATO isn't numba wan is very important

 

[sodaboard]

i want to know why wagner is doing this pseudo-coup, is he pissed that there's no clear objective for the war? that russia isn't letting them do whatever they want? that they've been doing most of the grunt work during the war (including taking bakhmut) and getting no credit for it? why did RAF just let wagner take rostov? why did nobody fight back? why is wagner now backing down for no fucking reason? how is this somehow more of a nothingburger than the turkish coup attempt?

 

[Farmer Y]

Prigozhin is in Rostov with General Sergey Kuzovlev, commander of the Southern Military District.

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1672463360024010753

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

I wonder.... China has got to be paying very close attention to these recent developments, and the course of that war has likely had some effect on their plans for Taiwan.

If Russia disintegrates and those eastern neglected & disputed border regions (i.e. Khabarovsk) are left hanging (or cut themselves loose), would they welcome a Chinese "peacekeeping" & "humanitarian" force; especially after having their taxes & families fed into the Ukraine grinder for over a year. It's not like they would be in any position to resist, given they've been stripped of manpower & wealth, and they may not even care.

And if those "offers" are still rejected by Moscow (et. al.) might China simply invade those states, because would the West step in to rescue the Russians so quickly. Would we be able to?

 

[World in Scarlet]

️ According to our readers from Voronezh region, there is a gun battle near Pavlovsk.

The entire tolled section of the M4 highway is closed. There is a column of military equipment on it, including tanks. A lorry is on fire on the highway.

source: zigger account

Photo from the Voronezh region, where we can clearly see a destroyed pickup truck with a machine gun, which belonged to the Wagner PMC and a completely burned truck of unknown origin.

Probably the result of the work of helicopters of the Ministry of Defense.

source: same

Authorities of Voronezh region may ban public events and start inspection of cars. This was announced by Roman Starovoit, the governor of Kursk region, in his Telegram channel.

source: TASS
That's supposedly more than 300km north of Rostov.

️"We block Rostov and go to Moscow". Footage of the arrival of the Wagner PMC to Rostov.

Prigozhin in the headquarters of the Southern Military District politely talks to Alekseev (deputy head of the General Staff) in the courtyard.

"I'm speaking to you on a you! Who are you to speak to me as you?"

"We want to get the Chief of the General Staff and Shoigu. While they're gone, we're here: we're blockading Rostov and going to Moscow."

"We came here so that the disgrace of the country in which we live would stop."

source
There's a video but the site is too dead and gay atm to upload it here. You can see it if you follow the link.

 

[draggs]

Russia is not disintegrating or anything because of this, China isn't going to invade Siberia, if China did Russia would sign up on Team Globohomo so fast it would make vatnigger heads spin off into low orbit

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

There's a bunch of videos with Prigozhin from Rostov MoD headquarters, it's definitely happening. I'm on the phone and tor barely works, so you'll have to find them yourself.

I'm glad they're eating each other, but I don't like the possibility of him ending up in power, however small it might be. I wonder what his endgame is.
Assuming MoD planned to arrest him and really did strike their camp, he'd probably try to find evidence and secure testimony to argue his case in the court of public opinion after revealing it.
Interesting situations, it's not often you're left this dumbfounded with no idea what the outcome will be.