Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

I assumed this was internal drama. Lots of noise but nothing significant. Putin calling Prigozhin a traitor and Wagner blocking the supply lines to the front suggest otherwise.

If it turns out that Prigozhin is a traitor who's sold out to the west then Putin is entirely responsible for elevating this faggot.

So as Putin, what would've you done?
 
The next 24 hours will be an ideal time for a NATO gayop at the ZPP.
Prigozhin wouldn't be making this play unless he had powerful backers.

It may be that sections of the Russian elites want rid of Putin because....reasons. It may be that he's thrown his lot in with NATO and the US. It may be both.

What will the Russian Federation's response be if NATO declares a no fly zone over the Ukraine? Prior to this it would be an immediate direct confrontation, but now? Can Russia handle a war against NATO, Ukraine and a military mutiny all at the same time?

NATO are playing a dangerous game as this could easily escalate out of control. The neo cons will triple down and sell Russian regime change and the overthrow of Putler, there will be no issue in securing further western support for Ukraine. Putin's only play is to utterly crush the rebellion with extreme prejudice and then to declare a mass mobilisation and a declaration of war in Ukraine.
 
Sitll undecided what to make of it, a lot of things suggest maskirovka:

1. Everything from the start gains immediate full coverage in official Russian media. RT, Sputnik, Russian bloggers, they start pumping out news about Prigozhin's coup

2. Coordinated media coverage is accompanied by seemingly coordinated response, FSB basically announces Prigozhin a persona non grata, generals starting with Surovikin start publishing videos begging Chef to stop and so on. Wouldn't the more logical response in an event like this would be keeping silent to not give the enemy fuel, and dealing with it quitely? Am I supposed to believe that FSB didn't have an asset close to Prigozhin ready to simply blow his brains out if he ever gets off the leash? What Russia started immediately doing was broadcasting to the whole world "HEY WE HAVE A COUP LOOK THERE'S A TOTALLY REAL COUP THERE LOOK HERE!"

3. Meanwhile, so far I haven't see any actual fire exchanges or anything like that. I heard talks of some combat taking place but with no visual confirmation

4. The photo ops taken in Rostov look EXTREMELY staged. I mean look at this:
le epic civil war.jpg

Am I supposed to actually look at this and believe that there is some hardcore urban warfare going on? Couldn't they actually got the guy who directed "Best in Hell" to direct some short clips about this "coup" so at least it looks realistic?

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All of that being said, these are just things that stand out to me as sus, it's not some conspiracy theory that I stand by. After all, Prigozhin is a Jewish CEO of a private military company which is a genre of guy that would be near the top of my list of "Top 10 Guys Most Likely to Agree to Receive a Few Hundred Millions of "Misplaced" NATObucks to Do a Little Trolling"
 
Prigozhin recorded a reply saying he will not turn himself in. Notably, he is not making any demands. He is airing grievances but offers no way to resolve them, i. e. he does not say "Put Shoigu before a firing squad and we'll go back to fighting Ukraine".

Warner is occupying the outskirts of Voronezh. Looks like we are going to bomb it after all.

Prigozhin has been denounced by the heads of the new regions, the patriarch, Medvedev, Kadyrov and the leaders of Putin's party, the United Russia. LDPR twitter posted a photoshopped Putin with tits.
 
3. Meanwhile, so far I haven't see any actual fire exchanges or anything like that. I heard talks of some combat taking place but with no visual confirmation
Well, for starters, there was some Kalak barter between the two parties
And now we have a confirmation of one of the oil depots in Voronezh being blown off.

Thus, if that's a gayops - innocents might to become victims, the collateral damage here, in this case both parties discriminate themselves more than enough for people to throw a hissy fit toward both loyalists and rogues.
Second, whatever the outcome of all this kerfuffle Prigozhin will not see the jail cell. Keep in mind that him and his guys are hired guns, the fact that they are our countrymen in most of cases means fuck all, and in regards to what is happening they will be euqalized to РОА, ie Vlasov's traitor army that went into German captivity and turned coats in favor of Aloizych (Hitler).

I thought we have these "Russian Liberation Brigade" glowing faggots to fulfill this role but so far, it seems we've got another Judas, one nobody was expecting but, if to think about it, Prigozhin was giving the clues that if things will keep unfolding like they do there will be something bad.

Here's this "something bad" now. Now we have to deal with both hohols and "our own" matryoshka store Blackwater.

Jesus. Fucking. Christ.
 
Prigozhin recorded a reply saying he will not turn himself in. Notably, he is not making any demands. He is airing grievances but offers no way to resolve them, i. e. he does not say "Put Shoigu before a firing squad and we'll go back to fighting Ukraine".

Warner is occupying the outskirts of Voronezh. Looks like we are going to bomb it after all.

Prigozhin has been denounced by the heads of the new regions, the patriarch, Medvedev, Kadyrov and the leaders of Putin's party, the United Russia. LDPR twitter posted a photoshopped Putin with tits.
Having little knowledge of Prigozhin, my rational calculus would be that he judges that either:
1. Russia is weak enough that he thinks he can get away with this coup / he feels he has enough support to do so
2. Or, circumstances are forcing him into a desperate play to stay alive
 
Prigozhin recorded a reply saying he will not turn himself in. Notably, he is not making any demands. He is airing grievances but offers no way to resolve them, i. e. he does not say "Put Shoigu before a firing squad and we'll go back to fighting Ukraine".

Warner is occupying the outskirts of Voronezh. Looks like we are going to bomb it after all.

Prigozhin has been denounced by the heads of the new regions, the patriarch, Medvedev, Kadyrov and the leaders of Putin's party, the United Russia. LDPR twitter posted a photoshopped Putin with tits.
So far not a single significant figure in the Russian establishment have come out to support him.

Looking back it's apparent that Prigozhin has been planning this for a while. He's been saying objectively lunatic nonsense about the situation in the Donbas including that the regular Russian army are riven with dissent, that the Ukraine is making massive advances and that the RF military are close to collapse. He also came out and repeated Ukraine/NATO talking points verbatim before launching his gay op i.e. that the Ukrainian government wasn't shelling the Donbas and that they weren't planning any attacks against the DPR/LPR, again laughably and objectively untrue.

You don't overthrow the RF government with a few thousand troops and no air support. It increasingly looks like Prighozhin expected a preference cascade in his favor when he made his move, either because he's a delusional retard or he was led down the garden path by his NATO handlers. Sucks to be him.
 
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Prigozhin reminds me of someone I worked with. This person was either slightly clueness about social interaction or perhaps more accurately just didn't get hierachy. Disliked greatly the poor leadership and decisions that were made. Could never quite understand why they didn't do things the way he thought they should be done. And whilst he was (mostly) right, he didn't have a sense of when he could push things and when he couldn't. His frustration grew and grew causing him to act out in meetings, send emails above his own manager's head to senior leadership to try and get the issues resolved. There were issues and he should have been listened to. But he wasn't. And he also had a narrow focus on his own specific area rather than the whole picture.

There have - other than rumours about a plane and a helicopter which I'm not leading credence to currently - been no shots fired, Prigozhin says that he is "allowing the people in the building to continue doing their jobs". Of all the options given so far I'm going with hidden option #5. Prigozhin genuinely thinks he can get his "manager" removed and people to start listening to him on how things should be done and then believes he'll go back to fighting on the front once he's been heard and the incompetent people have been fired. Capturing a building in Rostov with soldiers is just the version of "CC everyone and the CTO" for people with tanks. He's reached Ultimate Frustration and is the sort of person that this genuinely gets to and is blinkered to other aspects and consequences.

It's mad but there you go. And most of us can sort of relate even though we're not mad enough to send a public email to the CTO with everyone CC'd occupy Rostov.
 
You don't overthrow the RF government with a few thousand troops and no air support. It increasingly looks like Prighozhin expected a preference cascade in his favor when he made his move, either because he's a delusional retard or he was led down the garden path by his NATO handlers. Sucks to be him.
Whatever the outcome, this escapade has undermined the legitimacy of the Russian government, reducing it to the level of a third world banana republic. If Prigozhin reaches for the nuke silos (a Hollywood scenario to be sure, but nothing is off the table right now), the legitimacy will collapse completely and give the world powers an actual excuse to intervene, leading to unpredictable consequences.

Oh, and remember how Russia saved the Kazakh president from a coup by sending troops shortly before the war in Ukraine? He just stated he will not be returning the favor as "what is happening is an internal affair of the Russian Federation". Remember Lukashenko whose personal plane set out to Russia last night? Well, he didn't stop there and went straight to Turkey. With allies like these, who needs enemies.
 
Whatever the outcome, this escapade has undermined the legitimacy of the Russian government, reducing it to the level of a third world banana republic.
I've never seen Putin so nervous and fidgeting as his speech today. He really was clueless about what was about to happen.

EDIT:
Air strike on a Wagner convoy near Voronezh
o
 
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Whatever the outcome, this escapade has undermined the legitimacy of the Russian government, reducing it to the level of a third world banana republic. If Prigozhin reaches for the nuke silos (a Hollywood scenario to be sure, but nothing is off the table right now), the legitimacy will collapse completely and give the world powers an actual excuse to intervene, leading to unpredictable consequences.

Oh, and remember how Russia saved the Kazakh president from a coup by sending troops shortly before the war in Ukraine? He just stated he will not be returning the favor as "what is happening is an internal affair of the Russian Federation". Remember Lukashenko whose personal plane set out to Russia last night? Well, he didn't stop there and went straight to Turkey. With allies like these, who needs enemies.
There are many, many examples of leaders recovering stronger than ever after coup attempts, and at least so far this isn't even a coup attempt.

Erdogan faced a no shit coup and held on to power by his fingernails. The general revulsion at what had gone on massively increased his legitimacy. So it depends on how Putin responds. We don't know what the fuck is behind this. If Prigozhin is a no shit traitor working for NATO then he needs to be put down by any means. If he's just an ego driven mental case then there may be a chance this will end without violence when he wakes up to not so much as a golf clap from the Russian public and leadership.

But yes I agree this has caused enormous damage to Russia's reputation. When this is dealt with Putin will need to show he's learned lessons. First allowing a private company employing tens of thousands of soldiers free reign is a really terrible idea (not that the MoD didn't warn him repeatedly of precisely this danger). Secondly that refusing to go all in on Ukraine is no longer sustainable politically and that he's risking ongoing instability by pointlessly prolonging the war. Expect mass mobilisation and a formal declaration in the coming weeks.
 
I've never seen Putin so nervous and fidgeting as his speech today. He really was clueless about what was about to happen.

EDIT:
Air strike on a Wagner convoy near Voronezh
View attachment 5177069o
>Pozdnyakov
Already posted two videos from last year claiming they are related to this so can't trust this source
 
Already posted two videos from last year claiming they are related to this so can't trust this source
It also doesn't make sense for the dudes in front to move towards the other trucks when they have to assume some rocket/bomb just hit the one in front of them.

Seems to me more in the line of IED or mine or the truck itself exploded.

There are many, many examples of leaders recovering stronger than ever after coup attempts, and at least so far this isn't even a coup attempt.
The westoid media and NAFO faggots being all over this also makes me highly doubtful that this is anything substantial. Sure it's another embarassing episode in a long line of Russian failure surrounding the SMO but the front line hasn't changed because of this. Globos claiming Ukraine has won...like wtf?

Wagner can't expect to go against the Russian military or block the defensive efforts by taking over the railroad system like someone suggested.
 
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