Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Scout Trooper]

Stalin-branded dope, gold, cash and fake passport allegedly found in Prigozhin's office.

Edit: All the essentials, to the tune of $38 million.
View attachment 5177918View attachment 5177919View attachment 5177920View attachment 5177921View attachment 5177922View attachment 5177923

Is this going to be used to come up with some other charges now that the insurrection charges are off the table?

 

[Night Crawler]

I think that's a little optimistic. I would say instead that if the CIA were involved, a whole lot more people would have died.

Nah, according to the left in the US the CIA is responsible for every Socialist shithole suffering a collapse. Also look at the Arab Spring in Egypt. Also what happened in Libya with Gaddafi. Before that the West pretty much had overthrown Iran's elected moderate leader Mohammad Mosaddegh. Though that was a coup carried out by the CIA and MI6 because they wanted the Iranian oil. Mosaddegh wanted to nationalize the Iranian oil. I watched a video about probably a decade ago or so. I can't find it now but I found another one.

The CIA is pretty good at coups. If the CIA was even involved a tiny bit the coup in Russia probably would have successful. Putin would have fled to maybe China or been killed. Instead this had Russian incompetence stink all over it.

 

[Rob Wolchek]

Now why Prigo took the deal is beyond me... He can't honestly believe any "security guarantee" the Kremlin gives him, can he?

Prigozhin needs time, this action was done so hastily it never was really going to work with an extreme amount of bloodletting on both sides. If anything he's dipped his toes in the water and knows the score better. My bet is he took the deal to get more time, being in Belarus lets him get some breathing space away from Moscow. The mans not a retard, he knows Putin just as Putin knows him, his base would be armed to the teeth with loyal wagner soldiers. I just can't see him settling down forever, he'll make a move later on.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Putin probably made a bad move but he made the less bad of three bad moves.
1) Fight back, turn the Moscow suburbs into a warzone, and possibly risk not only looking weak but also a full blown collapse on the frontlines
2) Give Prigo an out, end the violence before it gets really bad, and worry about looking weak later
The fact that the little "justice march" happened anyways makes him look weak, but the main perps walking away from an attempt to dethrone the king makes him look LESS weak than a micro-civil war and a potential frontline collapse.

The problem is that dealing with it this way only makes Putin look even weaker than if he fought back. If Putin was really in total control of the situation, your damn straight he would have militarily crushed Wagner at the first opportunity, long before they got close to the capital, civilian casualties be damned. The fact that he had to negotiate at all, and that the negotiations were handled by a man who is ostensibly a political puppet, shows that Putin's political situation in Russia is far more precarious than anyone realized.

Prigozhin needs time, this action was done so hastily it never was really going to work with an extreme amount of bloodletting on both sides. If anything he's dipped his toes in the water and knows the score better. My bet is he took the deal to get more time, being in Belarus lets him get some breathing space away from Moscow. The mans not a retard, he knows Putin just as Putin knows him, his base would be armed to the teeth with loyal wagner soldiers. I just can't see him settling down forever, he'll make a move later on.

The thing is, Prigozhin doesn't have any time. Putin will kill him at the first opportunity. By doing this, he's basically given up any leverage he had. He's a dead man walking now. At least, if he made it to Moscow and successfully took control, he could have negotiated with the oligarchs, the real kingmakers, and potentially gotten some of the security apparatus on his side if he demonstrated that Putin was a weak leader. Now, he has nothing, not even Wagner. He has no pull, no protection, and no bargaining chips.

 

[R00T]

Now, he has nothing, not even Wagner.

this is an interesting point i think a lot of people aren't bringing up. Not sure how much of Wagner is composed of felons rn but...

I'm a Russian felon currently serving 10-20 and want to get out of the my shitty cell and back into the real world. they allow me to sign a paper stating if i go shoot ukrainians i'll get a reduction in my sentence. Cool I'll do it. I'm then thrown into the worst of the fighting and some how make it this far. Commander Pierogi then tells us all to pack up and ship out. We're heading to Moscow to overthrow the government. For me this is a turning point that I don't have much of a choice in. I imagine if I say no Wagner shoots me or I just end up back in a cell with no credit to my time served. But if we do this, all of a sudden I no longer have a rap sheet. I'm with the people in charge. Either the war ends here or we take a chance to lick our wounds and plan so instead of wading into a meat grinder we're rolling through Ukraine as we were told we would be.

Skip ahead a few hours. we've driven through several towns with no obstructions, shot down some planes and helos and there has been 0 retaliations. We're closing in on Moscow. Their response is to what? Dig up roads? Rotate a bridge? This will be the easiest objective we've taken in this war. All of a sudden the convoy stops. Commander Pierogi walks out and says "I was just on the phone with the president of Belarus. We're gonna turn around." Pierogi says it's all been resolved and it's back to business as usual and he's gonna take some time to relax in Belarus. I'm not just mad. I'm pissed. We've already crossed an un-crossable line. Pierogi's going to Belarus, but my fellow felons and I are going back to the meat grinder. And now when this is all over do you think Russia is gonna go "good job," and let you walk? You're getting shackles slapped on you and nothing to thank you for your service if you make it out of this alive.

I imagine there's some fanatics of the commander that are completely disillusioned right now as well. I'd be just as concerned about the people around me if i was Pierogi. he had his rubicon, announced he was crossing it, caught putin completely off guard and just shrugged and walked away from it like that's a completely normal thing to do.

 

[Kane lives in death]

I know this has been very funny but after this shitshow and humilliation Putin now understands how vulnerable he is with his army stuck in Ukraine and losing thousands of men for nothing in this retarded stalemate, yesterday was just a couple of thousand mercs rampaging and almost reaching moscow, tomorrow could be worse.
He looks so weak and unstable politically that i believe that hes gonna start really trying to pull out of ukraine with decent terms (just let us keep crimea and dont overtly join NATO plz) because EVERYONE in Russia, including Putin himself, now realizes that he cant control his country any longer. If you can strike a deal with the traitor Wagner why not Ukraine? The brainwashed people will probably eat it up anyways.

 

[NSJAP]

 

[Night Crawler]

The thing is, Prigozhin doesn't have any time. Putin will kill him at the first opportunity. By doing this, he's basically given up any leverage he had. He's a dead man walking now. At least, if he made it to Moscow and successfully took control, he could have negotiated with the oligarchs, the real kingmakers, and potentially gotten some of the security apparatus on his side if he demonstrated that Putin was a weak leader. Now, he has nothing, not even Wagner. He has no pull, no protection, and no bargaining chips.

Prigozhin will be dead soon. I suspect in a few weeks or a month. The agreement was that Shoigu and Gerisamov would be removed in 2 months. So they have 2 months to kill him. I bet it doesn't take that long. This is a kill or be killed situation. Like I said before there is no walking away from this and everything goes back to normal. It's a not a I was only joking guys kind of thing. It would have been better if he had just went through with his plans. Even if he had failed and gotten killed. He is going to be killed anyway.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

He looks so weak and unstable politically that i believe that hes gonna start really trying to pull out of ukraine with decent terms (just let us keep crimea and dont overtly join NATO plz) because EVERYONE in Russia, including Putin himself, now realizes that he cant control his country any longer.

Putin's problem is that Ukraine will never agree to anything he asks short of completely evacuating the country and fucking off. He has nothing he can offer them, nobody will trust his word, and he's the one in a precarious position. If anything, all of this will embolden Ukraine to press forward, in the hopes that the unrest builds and somebody else tries their luck in overthrowing him.

 

[Delicious Diversity]

Now why Prigo took the deal is beyond me... He can't honestly believe any "security guarantee" the Kremlin gives him, can he?

Whatever "security guarantee" he is offered will be worth as much as the Budapest Memorandum was. Written agreements in Russia are most useful as toilet paper.

 

[Kane lives in death]

Putin's problem is that Ukraine will never agree to anything he asks short of completely evacuating the country and fucking off. He has nothing he can offer them, nobody will trust his word, and he's the one in a precarious position. If anything, all of this will embolden Ukraine to press forward, in the hopes that the unrest builds and somebody else tries their luck in overthrowing him.

Im not saying Ukraine will actually listen to him but at this point hes probably desperate and tbh his best bet is to get the army back to the barracks as soon as possible so they can go back beat journalists and shit.
Also it doesnt matter how many people you throw into the meatgrinder, this war will end with an independent pro-west ukraine anyways, with more or less land but independent nontheless, that ship sailed long ago.

If i was Putin i would try to get something out of the Ukranians, while the memory of the failed counterattack is still fresh, maybe try to keep Crimea and ease the sanctions, in turn allow the NATO to place guarantees on Ukraine, that is probably what the ukies actually want the most so they dont go throught this again.

Its a long shot but its still the only way Putin still could hang on to power and not fall from a window.

The ukranians may want to keep going but if NATO (especially the EU who probably dont like this war business as much as the US) believes those terms are ¨good enough¨ they could strong arm Ukraine into accepting.

 

[Otis Mallebrok]

Holy shit, Russia is becomes a joke faster and faster. Now they have to pay of danegeld to invading russian mercenaries, like some toothless saxon King paying of the Danes in 900-something. In 2022 Putin wants to seize Kiev, but instead in 2023 Putin loses control of Rostov.

 

[Ghostse]

Someone was saying there was a Ukrainian crossing at Kherson in the confusion. I'm guessing since theres no follow up that was more fan fiction, but anyone confirm?

I doubt the CIA was involved. If they were it would have been successful.

I think that's a little optimistic. I would say instead that if the CIA were involved, a whole lot more people would have died.

Nah, according to the left in the US the CIA is responsible for every Socialist shithole suffering a collapse. [...]
The CIA is pretty good at coups. If the CIA was even involved a tiny bit the coup in Russia probably would have successful. Putin would have fled to maybe China or been killed. Instead this had Russian incompetence stink all over it.

as the joke goes:
How do you know Pinochet's coup didn't have CIA involvement?
It was successful.

I wa mostly just shit posting because everyone is correct: This is way too low of a body count for a CIA glow op.

the negotiations were handled by a man who is ostensibly a political puppet

From what I have been told:
For us, in the west, this makes him look weak.
For Russia, this makes him look strong via the following calculus:
Putin says "Death to traitors" on national TV. behind the scenes, he has his stooge make contact. Lukashaka calls Chef, offers him a deal. Chef bites.
Thus
If Putin had negotiated, the narrative would be "Putin so weak, he has to negotiate with mutinous mercenary". With the magic of Russian state media, the narrative is "Lives of fool hardy russian soldiers saved by the intervention of President of Belarus, who made empassioned plea to Putin to spare their lives becasue this was all a misunderstanding; Putin is so strong he can both show mercy and his pronouncement made them immediately reconsider their course of action. Do you think the president of Belarus will reach out to save you if you even think about trying the same?"

his is an interesting point i think a lot of people aren't bringing up. Not sure how much of Wagner is composed of felons rn but...

I'm a Russian felon currently serving 10-20 and want to get out of the my shitty cell and back into the real world. they allow me to sign a paper stating if i go shoot ukrainians i'll get a reduction in my sentence. Cool I'll do it. I'm then thrown into the worst of the fighting and some how make it this far. Commander Pierogi then tells us all to pack up and ship out. We're heading to Moscow to overthrow the government. For me this is a turning point that I don't have much of a choice in. I imagine if I say no Wagner shoots me or I just end up back in a cell with no credit to my time served. But if we do this, all of a sudden I no longer have a rap sheet. I'm with the people in charge. Either the war ends here or we take a chance to lick our wounds and plan so instead of wading into a meat grinder we're rolling through Ukraine as we were told we would be.

Skip ahead a few hours. we've driven through several towns with no obstructions, shot down some planes and helos and there has been 0 retaliations. We're closing in on Moscow. Their response is to what? Dig up roads? Rotate a bridge? This will be the easiest objective we've taken in this war. All of a sudden the convoy stops. Commander Pierogi walks out and says "I was just on the phone with the president of Belarus. We're gonna turn around." Pierogi says it's all been resolved and it's back to business as usual and he's gonna take some time to relax in Belarus. I'm not just mad. I'm pissed. We've already crossed an un-crossable line. Pierogi's going to Belarus, but my fellow felons and I are going back to the meat grinder. And now when this is all over do you think Russia is gonna go "good job," and let you walk? You're getting shackles slapped on you and nothing to thank you for your service if you make it out of this alive.

I imagine there's some fanatics of the commander that are completely disillusioned right now as well. I'd be just as concerned about the people around me if i was Pierogi. he had his rubicon, announced he was crossing it, caught putin completely off guard and just shrugged and walked away from it like that's a completely normal thing to do.

You aren't wrong, which makes me think some of this was expected before he started. Not in a vatnigger sad cope of "4D chess between putin and prigozhin", but I think Prigozhin made his guys aware of a plan B before they rolled out. The goal was never to take over Russia or moscow, it was to stomp on the dicks of the MoD. And he can very well argue that he accomplished just that

Quote bug, but I just want to say that this case of "Putin is fucked" is different.
Strongman dictators don't stay in power long-term by letting all would-be traitors and mutineers know that the punishment for treason and mutiny is a slap on the wrist and exile.
You would think, if there is one crime for which a "strongman" dictator needs to punish severely and without compromise, it would be just that - treason. Bribery, thieving, even shit like murder and rape can be overlooked so long as it benefits the man in charge, but marching a private army to the gates of the capital is NOT a crime that can be overlooked if you wish to dissuade others from doing similar.

What I'm seeing coming out is that this is being spun as a "misunderstanding". Prigozhin didn't actually mutiny, it was just a big confused mess as war is. Putin didn't mean to call for his death, he just misunderstood the situation. Its all cleared up now, don't worry. The roads will be fixed sometime next month.

And again, I'm not saying you're wrong - the fact Putin had to go this far is a huge sign of weakness. Any response beyond the limp wristed one that was displayed would have been even worse, especially since Wagner wasn't shooting first. This is a massive, massive Russian L and its hilarious to see people try to do the mental gymnastics to paint it anything else.
I just don't think it really matters in any substantive way that will either shake Putin from power or have any real effect on the Ukrainian war beyond this time next week.

But, just imagine if 10,000 Polish Finnish mercenaries rolled over any of the hundreds of miles of newly created NATO border.

Also, you just highlight text in a bugged post and select reply or quote+

 

[Ballsack Pussylips]

At least, if he made it to Moscow and successfully took control, he could have negotiated with the oligarchs, the real kingmakers, and potentially gotten some of the security apparatus on his side if he demonstrated that Putin was a weak leader. Now, he has nothing, not even Wagner. He has no pull, no protection, and no bargaining chips.

My guess is he had a backer/backers, who got found out by Putin or got ratted out against a price (which would be incredibly stupid, because Putin will kill him). We'll see if it's reported that someone fell out of a window again.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Prosecution drops the case against Prigozhin for essentially treason, despite it resulting in damage to a bunch of public property (just what tank treads did to roads alone), downed aircraft and people therein, overall chaos and disruption, Putin's soiled pants.

Meanwhile a father lost custody of his daughter and is likely going to prison because she drew a picture showing Ukraine and Russia at peace in school (straight to the orphanage she goes), a lot of people are at best fined and at worst jailed for up to multiple decades for "discrimination of Russian armed forces" (punishment depends on how prominent you are), and young (and not so young) men are going through all kinds of hell trying to avoid getting dragged into this war to be used up as cannon fodder.

How utterly fucked up.

On the other hand, consider how easily Wagner rolled through toward Moscow, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainians are getting some ideas as well lol
Storming Moscow might've been a meme before, but after this?

 

[Corette]

Someone was saying there was a Ukrainian crossing at Kherson in the confusion. I'm guessing since theres no follow up that was more fan fiction, but anyone confirm?

Haven't seen any further news from that direction.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

If i was Putin i would try to get something out of the Ukranians, while the memory of the failed counterattack is still fresh, maybe try to keep Crimea and ease the sanctions, in turn allow the NATO to place guarantees on Ukraine, that is probably what the ukies actually want the most so they dont go throught this again.

What you fail to understand is that the counterattack hasn't "failed", its only just started, or is about to start. All the attacks we've seen have been probing attacks and reconnaissance in force. Ukraine hasn't actually committed the majority of its army to a major push yet. And they almost certainly will do that now because recent events present their best chance. They will take the land bridge to deny Putin a bargaining chimp. The Russians will not keep Crimea; Ukraine has made it clear that retaking it is one of their war goals now. Neither NATO or Ukraine want Russia to keep it at this point and Ukraine will never be secure until they have it back. Guarantees mean dick, which was shown when the U.S. did fuck and all to protect Ukrainian territorial integrity in 2014 despite the Budapest Memorandum; Ukraine wants full NATO membership because that's the only way to prevent any chance of future conflict, and Ukraine will only gain membership if it controls all of its territory.

From what I have been told:
For us, in the west, this makes him look weak.
For Russia, this makes him look strong via the following calculus:
Putin says "Death to traitors" on national TV. behind the scenes, he has his stooge make contact. Lukashaka calls Chef, offers him a deal. Chef bites.
Thus
If Putin had negotiated, the narrative would be "Putin so weak, he has to negotiate with mutinous mercenary". With the magic of Russian state media, the narrative is "Lives of fool hardy russian soldiers saved by the intervention of President of Belarus, who made empassioned plea to Putin to spare their lives becasue this was all a misunderstanding; Putin is so strong he can both show mercy and his pronouncement made them immediately reconsider their course of action. Do you think the president of Belarus will reach out to save you if you even think about trying the same?"

Only a moron will believe that shit. While some of the Russian public maybe that stupid, nobody in any position of authority, be it the generals or the oligarchs, is that stupid. Putin can try to spin this as much as he wants, everybody who matters knows he just got punked.

 

[Glowie]

Quote bug, but I just want to say that this case of "Putin is fucked" is different.
Strongman dictators don't stay in power long-term by letting all would-be traitors and mutineers know that the punishment for treason

Notice how quickly Putin Toadie offered chief orc Asylum, this isn't CIA level facial reconstruction, new name, identity, moving across the country shit. Belarus is broke and small. EU countries use biometric identification and not shit passports.

He'll be in some compromised bunker were Lukasenko will sell him out to Putin or Western countries, Whichever pays him the most.

This looks like a honeypot to me.

 

[Night Crawler]

I just wanted to watch someone violently over throw a sitting government and all I got for my trouble was faggotry. Oh well, when Prigozhin is killed that will bring some brief excitement. I guess it's back to waiting for the Ukrainians to really start their offensive. I think the Ukrainians might be waiting to get those F-16's so they can use them as well. That should be interesting.

I know this has been very funny but after this shitshow and humilliation Putin now understands how vulnerable he is with his army stuck in Ukraine and losing thousands of men for nothing in this retarded stalemate, yesterday was just a couple of thousand mercs rampaging and almost reaching moscow, tomorrow could be worse.
He looks so weak and unstable politically that i believe that hes gonna start really trying to pull out of ukraine with decent terms (just let us keep crimea and dont overtly join NATO plz) because EVERYONE in Russia, including Putin himself, now realizes that he cant control his country any longer. If you can strike a deal with the traitor Wagner why not Ukraine? The brainwashed people will probably eat it up anyways.

I noticed that no one is talking about how Prigozhin had some Russian TV stations hacked and he was basically telling everyone how shit the war is going for Russia. He said casualties are 4 times higher than stated in reports and what is said in the media. Of course we know the Russians are losing a lot of soldiers. But the Russian public is still being lied to. Prigozhin said a lot more than that. How do you walk that back? You can't. I guess the Russian government could say they are all lies.

Im not saying Ukraine will actually listen to him but at this point hes probably desperate and tbh his best bet is to get the army back to the barracks as soon as possible so they can go back beat journalists and shit.
Also it doesnt matter how many people you throw into the meatgrinder, this war will end with an independent pro-west ukraine anyways, with more or less land but independent nontheless, that ship sailed long ago.

If i was Putin i would try to get something out of the Ukranians, while the memory of the failed counterattack is still fresh, maybe try to keep Crimea and ease the sanctions, in turn allow the NATO to place guarantees on Ukraine, that is probably what the ukies actually want the most so they dont go throught this again.

Its a long shot but its still the only way Putin still could hang on to power and not fall from a window.

The ukranians may want to keep going but if NATO (especially the EU who probably dont like this war business as much as the US) believes those terms are ¨good enough¨ they could strong arm Ukraine into accepting.

Failed counterattack? The Ukrainians haven't really started their counter attack yet. I don't know how it can be failed. From what I understand they are still probing the Russians lines.

Prosecution drops the case against Prigozhin for essentially treason, despite it resulting in damage to a bunch of public property (just what tank treads did to roads alone), downed aircraft and people therein, overall chaos and disruption, Putin's soiled pants.

Meanwhile a father lost custody of his daughter and is likely going to prison because she drew a picture showing Ukraine and Russia at peace in school (straight to the orphanage she goes), a lot of people are at best fined and at worst jailed for up to multiple decades for "discrimination of Russian armed forces" (punishment depends on how prominent you are), and young (and not so young) men are going through all kinds of hell trying to avoid getting dragged into this war to be used up as cannon fodder.

How utterly fucked up.

On the other hand, consider how easily Wagner rolled through toward Moscow, I wouldn't be surprised if Ukrainians are getting some ideas as well lol
Storming Moscow might've been a meme before, but after this?

Anyone who invades Russia is liable to get nuked. It was Russians moving on Moscow not a foreign army. I don't think the Russians want to nuke themselves.

 

[DumbDude43]

The thing is, Prigozhin doesn't have any time. Putin will kill him at the first opportunity.

as long as wagner remains as a significant fighting force, prigozhin has leverage and protection.