Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Kendall Motor Oil]

It looks like they're trying to make identifying them by satellite and targeting by drone harder.

I'm assuming the US military has object recognition systems in place that will detect these ships, right?

 

[World in Scarlet]

Vice did a decent piece on Russia's abducting of Ukrainian children and got to visit a re-education camp and even talk to the war criminal Maria Lvova-Belova.
In a typical display of official Russian retardation they thought the footage of Ukrainian children being forced to wear Russian flags all day would look good and that "Their happiest day is the one they receive their Russian passport" is something anyone will believe.

 

[Agamemnon Busmalis]

How can HIMARS be taking out unstoppable Russian Stronk artillery? 500 of the 20 systems sent to Ukraine have been blown up by Wagner Russian sapper teams.

The Khazars in unliberated Russia are making more in their secret biolabs!

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukrainians who owe their lives to the Bradley:

Two Ukrainian soldiers from the 47th brigade, Serhiy and Andriy, told ABC News that they and their crew wouldn't be alive today if Bradley didn't protect them from a battle early on in the counteroffensive where they were struck by mines, high caliber guns and attack drones.

"We were hit multiple times," Andriy, who drove one Bradley, said. "Thanks to it, I am standing here now. If we were using some Soviet armored personnel carrier we would all probably be dead after the first hit. It's a perfect vehicle."

Andriy and Serhiy's brigade was part of one of the first major assaults using significant amounts of Western-supplied armored, launched against heavily fortified Russian lines in the Zaporizhzhia region in southern Ukraine at the start of June.

As they advanced towards the Russian positions, protected by dense minefields, the Ukrainian troops came almost immediately under heavy fire. The vehicle behind Andriy was struck by an attack drone, killing his unit's commander.

Andriy's Bradley was then hit first by a 120mm mortar. Two 150mm shells then struck both sides of the vehicle, he told ABC.

"Almost all of my guys were concussed, and they were really disoriented," he said. But the squad inside bailed out and managed to safely escape back to cover.

Russia's defense ministry released a widely video of a nearby area showing four Bradleys and one German Leopard 2A6 tanks damaged and abandoned after a different failed breaching assault by the 47th Brigade

Serhiy, who drove a Bradley during yet another nearby assault, said Russian forces were very well prepared. Despite his vehicle also being badly hit, he said he and his team escaped major injuries while inside during the attack.

"It's a very good car if you are inside. I've checked on myself and on my team. Only one guy had a concussion," he said.

Ukraine has so far lost at least 24 Bradleys, according to the Oryx open source website, that tracks Ukrainian and Russia equipment losses by visually confirming them in public available imagery.

Serhiy and Andriy said the Ukrainians were often able to recover many of the vehicles disabled in the attacks. One of their vehicles was recovered and used for parts that allowed the repair of two more Bradleys, they said.

Andriy was hospitalised for concussion, but a day later snuck out against his doctors advice, determined to recover his vehicle. He returned to the battlefield where the Bradley was still abandoned and discovering its engine was still functioning succeeded in driving it out.

I'm assuming the US military has object recognition systems in place that will detect these ships, right?

Our satellite systems have algorithms & multiple methods to automatically identify & track ships, but as far as I know it still takes analysts in the meatspace to look at images and confirm what things are.

Although some things have certainly changed; image analysis is no longer restricted to GS-level troglodytes stuffed into the depths of the Pentagon or somewhere near Quantico. Now there's thousands of autistic volunteers worldwide who are poring over satellite images for Ukraine on their own time, along with observers & sympathetic coastwatchers all around the Crimea.

During the beginning of the war, I near burnt out my retinas looking for Russian naval assets; stuff like Putin's yachts, subs, certain patrol boats & frigates, etc. I'd say that painting them in such a way *could* help hide them from people using lower resolution/OSINT imaging; but probably not so much for shit like Global Hawk, while the CIA & NSA laugh in Keyhole (KH-11+).

 

[Ghostse]

I'm assuming the US military has object recognition systems in place that will detect these ships, right?

Yes, but as @Pocket Dragoon says in bad imaging conditions this might cause a misidentification, especially telegram war autists with low-quality images. It'll also make targeting with USVs harder - most USV strikes have been bow and strikes where defenses are less dense and wakes might hide a USV. We've seen the videos from them, they aren't great. This will make the ships look shorter, making the drones try for more central on the ship.

Its easy to tell the ship is there, but harder to tell what the ship is. Since this is their Kalibr launch platforms, even the chance that it'll get mis-IDed long enough for a launch mission is probably worth giving the crew busy work.

Should also add, it might be a morale exercise for the crews as well "see comrade now yankee spy satellites cannot find us". While it does very little to prevent NATO (and thus Ukraine) from knowing exactly where the ships are - and if they're doing different patterns it'll only make ID'ing them easier- all they need is the first bellingcat posting Yooknik to fuck up an ID and they can make the crews feel more secure.

I'd say that painting them in such a way *could* help hide them from people using lower resolution/OSINT imaging; but probably not so much for shit like Global Hawk, while the CIA & NSA laugh in Keyhole (KH-11+).

Agreed .

 

[Night Crawler]

Is the stuff they said about Prigozhin in this Boomer tier video true? If so that's really interesting stuff.

Putin isnt showing any signs of giving up.

People don't give up in these kind of situations. They have to be forced to give up. As long as Putin has people around him telling him the war is going well for Russia he will keep fighting. They really have no other choice. If he were to give up he would be seen as weak. But several things have already made him look weak. Now it would just be weaker. I think the Ukrainians plan to to try and take Crimea. Taking that would make Russia and Putin look very weak. That's where Russia sends a lot of it's supplies.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

From the CDS (Center for Defense Strategies) daily brief, under "Escalation Indicators"
Archive:

Commander of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Colonel-General Mikhail Teplinsky, took over the duties of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation in Ukraine from the Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Army General V. Gerasimov

That's this guy:

Mikhail Teplinsky was born in Mospyne, in what was then the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic, in the Soviet Union, on 9 January 1969. In 1987 he entered and in 1991 graduated from the Ryazan Higher Airborne Command School. He served in the 106th Guards Airborne Division stationed in Tula. He commanded an airborne reconnaissance platoon and a reconnaissance company of the 137th Guards Airborne Regiment. From 1992 to 1993, he took part in the Transnistria War. From December 1994 to March 1995 he participated in the First Chechen War. He distinguished himself in battles while crossing the Sunzha River. During the period of hostilities, senior lieutenant Teplinsky had about 30 destroyed militants on his personal combat account. For courage and heroism shown during the performance of a special task, by decree of the President of Russia of 1 March 1995, Senior Lieutenant Teplinsky was awarded the title of Hero of the Russian Federation. While still in Chechnya, he received a promotion in rank and position: he became the captain and head of intelligence of the parachute regiment.

He's been fucking around in Donetsk & Luhansk since at least 2014-2015; and that he was relieved as commander of Russian airborne forces. An honest Hero of the Russian Federation, his only combat was in Chechnya & Transnistria, while lacking the experience in Syria, which all of his predecessors possessed.

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

Ukraine can be viable without Crimea

No, it can't, for these reasons:

1. Crimea was one of the main vectors for attacking Ukraine during this invasion. As long as it remains in Russia's hands, Ukraine will always be vulnerable.
2. While Crimea is in Russian hands, Russia can easily blockade all of Ukraine's ports, cutting it off from international trade, as it did during this war when it blockaded grain shipments. This is unconscionable for Ukraine.
3. There are large natural gas fields in Ukrainian territorial waters just to the south of Crimea. Ukraine had signed a deal with a western company to develop these fields just prior to the 2014 invasion. If Ukraine wants to kickstart its economy, these fields have to be brought back under their control so they can be developed.

At the same time though, nobody wants to be the bad guy in their own story. All that is required for this war to end, permanently, is for Russia and Ukraine to sign a piece of paper, embossed with both their state seals delineating the final, irrevocable separation between their peoples.

No paper signed with Russia would be worth anything. Russia broke every international agreement it ever made with Ukraine when it launched this invasion. Nobody can trust the Russians to negotiate in good faith. Only by forcing the Russians out at gunpoint and joining NATO will Ukraine truly be secure.

 

[Ghostse]

No paper signed with Russia would be worth anything. Russia broke every international agreement it ever made with Ukraine when it launched this invasion. Nobody can trust the Russians to negotiate in good faith. Only by forcing the Russians out at gunpoint and joining NATO will Ukraine truly be secure.

The Baltic States didn't join NATO because they needed a club to list for their college applications.

Russia views all former USSR territory as theirs to exclusively control, the people living there serfs, and the fact its not currently being controlled openly by Russia a historical blip they seek to correct. Any country that couldn't hope to take on Russia militarily is weak and a target and needs to be protected lest the west infiltrate. Any country that could pose a military threat to Russia is a danger to Russia and needs to be dealt with.

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Our satellite systems have algorithms & multiple methods to automatically identify & track ships, but as far as I know it still takes analysts in the meatspace to look at images and confirm what things are.

Don't quote me, but I recall it took anywhere from 12-48 hours.

It was a discussion about why satellites dont work like movies where you can just "zoom in" and get live feed of everything happening anywhere; but IIRC it takes time to make out what the images are actually showing.

I think the Ukrainians plan to to try and take Crimea. Taking that would make Russia and Putin look very weak. That's where Russia sends a lot of it's supplies.

Crimea is their "now or never" IMO.
Whether they manage to take it back this war or not is a situation I am doubtful of but not of the opinion its implausible. But basically if they don't get it back now, there is a very serious chance that Russia won't be in such a bumbling-oaf position to exploit the next time.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Is the stuff they said about Prigozhin in this Boomer tier video true? If so that's really interesting stuff.

That video is filled with conjecture stated as if it was fact and the Prigozhin stuff fits in well. As far as I know there's no evidence Prigozhin ever cooperated with Ukrainians in any way, and his behaviour can be explained as him jockeying for power and influence in the byzantine Russian political system.
Claiming that enemies are betraying their own side is an ancient tactic. There was another video where a Ukrainian soldier addressed Russian soldiers saying that they will spare barracks in sectors of the front where Russian soldiers reported to them the exact location of valuable targets. It doesn't matter whether anyone takes them up on, simply stating that decreases trust, and every time some command post or ammunition dump is hit while barracks aren't, that doubt is increased. This degrades the ability of the Russians to communicate and plan.
Similarly Prigozhin is an obvious target for this kind of tactics because he was already in conflict with high ranking courtiers.

As far as I know all the information that is damning to the Russians, which includes the supposed offer by Prigozhin, was never made public and is only paraphrased by the Washington Post (one batch of documents leaked to the public and a second batch allegedly only leaked to the Washington Post), which is a zero credibility trash paper that regularly publishes idiotic articles about the Ukraine war.
If anyone has that second batch, I appreciate if they could share it. It's not in this.

Edit: Another VIED, this time a T-62.

info
video

 

[Ghostse]

Crimea is their "now or never" IMO.
Whether they manage to take it back this war or not is a situation I am doubtful of but not of the opinion its implausible. But basically if they don't get it back now, there is a very serious chance that Russia won't be in such a bumbling-oaf position to exploit the next time.

If Ukraine can take Melitopol or Mariupol, unless Russia calls for an immediate truce, Ukraine can take Crimea via strangulation because Russia's only link will be the Kersch bridge which will be a valid military target as long as the SMO is on, as would be any bulk shiping. Even if Russia immediately cries uncle, trying to keep the civilian population supplied via a single bridge and the harbor facilities there will be a tall order.

What Russia wants is Sevastopol. Turkey, a NATO member, controls access to/from the Blacksea and is bound by treaty to prevent either Russia or other counties from sending most bigger warships through; the Kirovs were designated 'battlecruisers' to try to end-run around this treaty. Thus Sevastopol is the only way for Russia to build/maintain a modern Navy - aka missile frigates & subs - is nearly critical for Russia's ability to maintain a military presence in the Black Sea. Russia was permitted by treaty continued access to the shipyards and bases there by treaty, and this is part of why international reaction to seizing Crimea was very muted (also because Obama is a bitchmade) - as long as Russia wasn't officially moving the border "Well they are just ensuring the security of their southern coast, its hard to argue with that" with the expectation some other solution would be found that would remove the military reliance on Sevastopol and allow Russia to withdraw.
this ignores that while military needs are the excuse, capturing the heavy industry in the oblast is the real reason for the invasion.

Before Putin went full retard, he could have made a deal for Sevastopol & assurances about access and Ukraine would have jumped at it (or been forced to jump at it). Now, extremely unlikely - No one gives a fuck about Russia feeling secure about their Black Sea coast anymore.

Daily Reminder that the US has maintained a Naval and Marine Base on Cuba since 1903. Through the revolution, through the missile crisis.

I'm not opposed on principal to Russia's aims of re-orbiting Ukraine and securing Crimea. My only issue has been their mechanism for doing so - they had options to get their aims that weren't armed conflict. Putin was just too busy keepin' it real to take them and instead acted like a nigger.

That video is filled with conjecture stated as if it was fact and the Prigozhin stuff fits in well. As far as I know there's no evidence Prigozhin ever cooperated with Ukrainians in any way, and his behaviour can be explained as him jockeying for power and influence in the byzantine Russian political system.
Claiming that enemies are betraying their own side is an ancient tactic. There was another video where a Ukrainian soldier addressed Russian soldiers saying that they will spare barracks in sectors of the front where Russian soldiers reported to them the exact location of valuable targets. It doesn't matter whether anyone takes them up on, simply stating that decreases trust, and every time some command post or ammunition dump is hit while barracks aren't, that doubt is increased. This degrades the ability of the Russians to communicate and plan.

IIRC,
FSB intercepts in the two days Chef was under investigation said he was in contact with Ukrainian Intelligence. Western sources confirmed the contact.
What this leaves out is that Prigozhin is a prolific shitposter. Doing shit like offering to dish dirt on Russia's war effort in exchange for F-35s. Ukrainian intelligence never followed up on the offer because they didn't believe his offer was earnest.

Anyway, that Video was dripping bias and I'd take anything from it with an entire pillar of salt.

 

[Pork Packer]

And lo, yet another sycophantic smugpiece from Mr PeePee has been manifested, and yet another reason why the "red-brown" tard-left/tard-right internet conglomeration that religiously cites and retweets him make your average troon mob look like some dignified scholarly symposium

A Matryoshka of Psyops: And Why General Armageddon Is Not Going Anywhere

Considering he appears to be in some kind of cell as of the latest scuttlebutt I agree he is very unlikely to be going anywhere.

The main problem faced by Russia is not the Hegemon and NATO: it’s domestic, Pepe Escobar writes.

Kind of a bad look if your glorious auth/trad eurasian ubermensch superstate is actively ripping itself apart in a dumbfuck war against a far smaller and weaker country backed by what is effectively rounding errors of The US/NATO military budget and stockpile.

The secret of a perfect psyop is that no one really understands it.

"russia being so unfathomably fucking retarded and inept is infact proof of russian superiority"

A perfect psyop accomplishes two tasks: it renders the enemy dazed and confused while achieving a set of very important goals.

And best of all it requires zero fucking evidence and yet autistic third worlders will believe in it none the less

It goes without saying that sooner rather than later we should see the real goals emerging out of the strategic play in Russia I described as The Longest Day.

Niggas been "sooner rather than later"'ing the fall of ukraine since February 2022

The Longest Day may or may not have been a larger than life psyop.

.....what so you dont know for sure? Ok you should probably wait until shit happens that may confirm your suspi...

To clear the fog, let’s start with a roundup of the usual “winner” suspects.

...ok nevermind just jump into the horseshit fantasising again.

First one is undoubtedly Belarus. Due to the priceless mediation of Old Man Luka, Minsk is now gifted with the most experienced army in the world: the Wagner musicians, masters of conventional (Libya, Ukraine) and non-conventional (Syria, Central African Republic) war.

Ah yes, the convict/mercenary army which took almost a year to take a town/small city the size of Casper Wyoming and lost so many men it caused a fucking coup, and even at its pre-war "peak" was casually slaughtered by US forces in syria after getting uppity

That is already inflicting the Fear of Hell in NATO, which is suddenly facing in its eastern flank a super pro army, very well equipped, and de facto uncontrollable, and on top of it hosted by a nation now equipped with nuclear weapons.

If in doubt, stick used tampons in your ears and scream "MUH NUKES" until the scary feelings go away

Simultaneously, Russia props up dissuasion on its western front. Like clockwork that is leading NATOstan to invest in ballooning military budgets (with funds it doesn’t have).

"the degenerate westoids are too poor to have military budgets yet somehow always manage to afford them"

That process happens to be a key plank of Russian strategy since at least March 2018.

Funny, trying to match the military spending of the west was the strategy of the USSR and....well...yeah didnt exactly work out

And as an extra bonus Russia creates a 24/7 threat to the whole of Kiev’s northern front.

For like the 5th time this war....also they coulda literally done all this without having to "fake" a coup which made russia look even more fucking pathetic than its failed war

Not bad for a “mutiny”.

No....pretty fucking bad for a mutiny all things considered

The Dance of the Oligarchs

Way more complex is Russia’s internal dynamics. Putin’s current and subsequent difficult decisions may entail loss of popularity coupled with loss of internal stability -depending on the manner Kremlin-defined strategic victories are presented to Russian public opinion.

Oh so despite this all being a 6-gorillion-percent win for putin and for russia there may be some teeny-weeny internal stability issues arising from the russian public's inability to grasp putin's magnificence

Whatever 24/7 NATOstan mainstream media spin may come up with, the Kremlin’s official explanation for June 24 boils down to a Prighozin demonstration: he was just trying to shake things up.

Uh...may wanna tell putin that because he's been pretty overt with seething about this treason and paying tribute to those russian pilots and soldiers wagner killed in this "psyop"

It’s way more complicated than that. There were strategic gains, of course, and Prighozin seems to have followed a very risky script that in the end favors Moscow. But it’s still too early to tell.

Strategic gains against fucking WHO?!

If I cut my own dick off is it really some strategic gain for my fucking hands?

A key sub-plot is how the Dance of the Oligarchs will proceed. Independent Russian media was already expecting some – treasonous – players, including state functionaries, to buy their one-way ticket when the going got tough (or to say they were “ill”, or refuse to answer important calls). The Duma – fed by Bortnikov’s FSB – is already working on a hefty list.

Wait a minute, literally one smugpiece ago you were shidding and cooming over how gloriously loyal 1000% of russian society and institutions were....now there are vast lists of traitors and disloyal officers being drawn up for purging?!

Be atleast a little fucking consistent nigger.

The Russian system – and Russian society as well – see people like these as supremely toxic: in fact much more dangerous than the demshiza (a term that mixes “democracy” and “schizophrenia”, applied to globalist neoliberals).

Wait....if "muh russian system" is inherently hostile against such people then why the heck are there so many being added to the purge lists?!

Again.... be atleast a little fucking consistent nigger.

On the military front, it gets even more complicated. Putin has charged Defense Minister Shoigu to compile the list of Generals to be promoted after The Longest Day. To put it mildly, for quite a few people, from many different persuasions, Shoigu has become a toxic element in Russian politics.

Wait.... so one of these toxic people the superior russian system automatically protects against managed to become the fucking head of the military?!

Please.... be atleast a little fucking consistent nigger.

Wagner – rebranded, and under new management – will continue to serve Russia’s interests via Minsk, including in Africa.

So in order to continue doing what it was already doing it required a fake coup....uh-huh

Old Man Luka, wily as ever, has already firmly stated there won’t be any provocations against NATO via Wagner. Wagner recruiting bureaus will not be opened in Belarus. Belarussians may join Wagner directly. As it stands, most of Wagner fighters are still in Lugansk.

Oh yeah im sure belarussians will be lining up round the block for the chance to be human waved through chernobyl minefields.

For all practical purposes, from now on the Russian government won’t have anything to do, militarily and financially, with Wagner.

Ok.....why is that a victory? After all russia has been super-duper winning since day 1 and effortlessly resists the pathetic westoid attempts to sanction and inhibit it. Why would it need to disassociate from wagner?

Additionally, there are no heavy weapons to be confiscated. Already on Monday, June 26, Wagner had moved their heavy weapons to Belarus. What remains – and had not been moved during The Longest Day – was returned to the Ministry of Defense (MoD).

What a glorious victory. wagner and the russian army will keep what they already had.

The Dance of the Generals

A clear winner in the whole process is Russian public opinion: they made that graphically clear in Rostov. Everyone was supporting Putin, Russian soldiers, Wagner and Prighozin – at the same time. The overall objective was to improve the Russian army to win the war. It’s as straightforward as that.

A coup which killed numerous russian pilots/soldiers and was condemned by putin from the getgo, and which was so severe as to cause vast lists of disloyal traitors to be drawn up, and which faced zero public opposition or resistance actchully is a victory because it "improved" the russian army.

The purge inside the MoD will be tough. Under the pretext of repression or “rebellion”, operetta Generals” (as defined by Putin himself) that did not train their soldiers properly, did not organize the mobilization properly, or were incompetent in battle, will definitely be axed.

"The coup which was totally fake proved the russian army fucking sucks even though its the bestest in the universe and needs to be purged of all the traitors and incompetents who could never reach any position within it because the russian system automatically roots non-superior specimens out"

The problem is that they’re all part of Gerasimov’s circle. To put it diplomatically, he needs to answer a lot of serious questions.

Funny how seemingly the entirity of russia's super-duper-superior

And that’s what brings us to the “General Armageddon has been arrested” monster fake news gleefully parroted by the whole of the NATOstan info universe.

Ah yes im sure theres a logical explanation for...

General Surovikin did receive Prighozin in Rostov – but he was never an accomplice to the “rebellion”.

Wait WHAT?!

Vice-Minister of Defense Yevkurov was also at the HQ in Rostov, and received Prighozin alongside Surovikin.

HOLY SHIT WHAT?!

I....I genuinely did not know this....jesus fucking christ so general fucking armageddon and vice minister of defence whatshisname were there in Rostov when the coup convoy came to town and they....did nothing to fucking stop it, and russia allowed two of its most important military figures to fall into the clutches of a mutiny. Like I assumed putin was just going apeshit in paranoia but if this nigga just let the coup happen on his literal fucking doorstep then that *actually* fucking justifies him getting arrested.

Yevkurov may have played the role of strategically-placed observer.

Ah yes, strategically observing the total lack of resistance anyone mounted to a mutiny.

The Prighozin rebellion soap opera de facto started back in February – and nothing was done to stop it. Regardless whether one shares the official narrative – or not.
What this implies is that the Russian state saw it coming.

"russia could not have POSSIBLY fucked up....they totally knew it was happening and just chose to pretend they massively fucked up"

Does that make The Longest Day the Mother of All Maskirovskas?

No...no it does not.

Once again: it’s complicated. Unlike the collective West, Russia does not practice or enforce cancel culture.

Indeed russia would never punish dissident speech and....

Wagner was protected via martial law. Any insult against a “musician” fighting neo-nazi Banderistan would be met by as much as a 15-year jail term.

Each Wagner fighter is officially a Hero of Russia – something Putin himself always stressed.

.....fucking christ im still not over those previous two sentances...this jungle-beaner is proof brazillians should never have been allowed to leave their fucking slums

On the maskirovka front, there’s no question the simmering tensions in Russian military circles before The Longest Day were manipulated, fog of war-style, to disorient the enemy. It worked like a charm. On the fateful June 24 itself, Surovikin was running a war, and not spending the day drinking brandy with Prighozin.

Ok now I have had a shot or two of rye I think I can keep going.

Why the heck are there "simmering tensions in Russian military circles" to the extent a totally fake/not-fake/MASKIROVKAAAA coup needs to be held if russia is winning and has been for nearly two years?

The NATOstan axis is really clutching at straws.

Nigga really? you wanna accuse someone else of clutching at straws after this shit?

It took just a Surovikin-related rumor to send them into rapture – proving once again how deeply they fear General Armageddon.

Yes they totally fear the guy most famous for being hyped up to solo conquer Ukraine and yet whose only notable action was retreating from Kherson

A key vector is how Surovikin is regarded by public opinion compared to the surviving “operetta Generals”.

Would be pretty embarrassing if your glorious no.1 military on earth only has a single general held in high regard, and only for leading a somewhat successful retreat from sacred russian soil, and he then decided to sit on the sidelines and not resist a coup on his doorstep.

He built the now legendary three-layered defense which is already burying the “counter-offensive”.

Ah yes the revolutionary tactic of digging in and building up fortifications to slow enemy advances.

He introduced the wildly successful Shahed-136 Iranian drones in the battlefield.

Ah yes begging for help from Iran really was a high point of russian military supremacy

And he organized the meat grinder devastation in Bakhmut/Artemyovsk – which has already entered the military annals.

Ah yes, spending almost a year and tens of thousands of soldiers and insane amounts of irreplaceable material to take a large town whose questionable strategic value has only become more dubious in the wake of russia doing fuck all to capitalise on it, and this not only being the entirety of the gains of the much shilled "winter offensive" but also directly causing the aforementioned coup to happen, is truly and ironically going to enter military annals.

Way back in the Autumn of 2022, it was General Armageddon who told Putin that Russian forces were not ready for a large-scale offensive.

Really? Thats not what you were saying back then.

So whatever the 5th columnists fabricate, General Armadeggon is not going anywhere – except to win a war.

Just as soon he reveals himself since nobody has been able to get a hold of him as of late.

And Russia is not “leaving” Africa. On the contrary: a rebranded Wagner is there to stay, and remains on speed dial in several latitudes.

Cheap mercenaries for nigger warlords. What a glorious role russia has secured.

The trend, short term, seems to point to a – convoluted – draining of the Russian military swamp.

A swamp that pepe and his friends have furiously denied and will continue to deny ever existed.

The Longest Day seems to have galvanized Russians of all stripes into identifying who the real enemy is – and how to defeat it, whatever it takes.

So the 19th "now russia will REALLY start fighting for real" event of the war.

“Nothing happens by chance”

Historian Andrei Fursov, reviving Roosevelt, observed that “in politics, nothing happens by chance. If it happens, you bet it was foreseen.”

Pretty sure nobody coulda forseen just how badly russia's invasion woulda gone, god knows I didnt.

Well, maskirovska rides again.

"Sir why do you have a dead hooker in the back of your car?"

"HAHA foolish cretin, you have utterly failed to grasp the complex majesty of my MaskirovskaAAUGH GOD STOP BEATING ME OFFICER!!!"

Yet the main problem faced by Russia is not the Hegemon and NATO: it’s domestic.

As always, russia is 100% united behind its glorious superior system and president for life, and yet its also ripping itself apart.

Based on conversations with Russian analysts, and their impressions from very sharp people who lived in Russia, Ukraine and in the West, it would be possible to identify basically four main groups trying to impose their idea of Russia.

This should be good.

1. The “Back to the USSR” gang. Includes, of course, some former KGB. Have some kind of support from the general population. A lot of educated specialists (old school pros, mostly pension age). This project suggests a revolution – a 1917 on steroids. But where is Lenin?

So one large segment of russia's population would be fine with a violent revolution against the current establishment...

2. The “Back to the Tsar” people. That would imply Russia as the “Third Rome” and a prominent role for the Orthodox Church. Hefty funds behind it. A big question mark is how much popular support, especially in “deep” Russia, they really have. This group has nothing to do with the Vatican – which is sold to The Great Reset.

And one segment of russia's population would be fine with overthrowing putin and the current establishment in order to LARP some cancerous HOI4 fanfiction mod...

3. The Plunderers – as in robbing Russia blind in favor of the Hegemon. Congregates 5th columnists, and all manner of “totalitarian neoliberals” worshipping the “values” of the collective West. The remaining ones will soon get a knock on the door by the FSB. Their money is already blocked.

And one segment of russia's population are filthy traitors who will soon be purged....

4. The Eurasianists. This is the most feasible project – in close collaboration with China, and aiming towards a multipolar world. There’s no place for Russian oligarchs here. Yet the degree of collaboration with China is still highly debatable. The real burning question: how to really integrate, in practice, the Belt and Road Initiative with the Greater Eurasia Partnership?

And finally, one segment of russia's population wants to become china's breeding mount

This is just a sketch – open for discussion. The first three projects may hardly work – for a series of complex reasons. And the fourth still has not gathered enough steam in Russia.
What is certain is that all of them are fighting each other. May the current draining of the military swamp also serve to clear the political skies.

Ya know it really is impressive to try and write some nigh religious hagiography of the country/system you choose to shill for and still manage, in the very narrative you try to weave, to make it look like an absolutely miserable clusterfuck with the bleakest future imaginable.

Ok....last pepe escobar breakdown for a while unless he shits out an even more fucking retarded one in the near future

 

[No. 7 cat]

Businessinsider have a list of the people Putin probably had assassinated (archive). One wonders if children's novelist Prigozhin will have a defenestration / window accident, green tea thing.

Spoiler: Deaded thanks to Putin

Putin, a former lieutenant colonel of the KGB and ex-head of the FSB, has been suspected of assassinating critics.
Here's a list of people who have been critical of Putin and the Russian president is suspected of assassinating:
Pavel Antov
In December 2022, Russian tycoon reportedly fell from a hotel window in Rayagada, India, on December 25 days after his 65th birthday.

The politician and millionaire criticized Putin's war with Ukraine following a missile attack in Kyiv earlier this year on WhatsApp but quickly deleted the message and claimed that someone else wrote it, the BBC reported.

"Our colleague, a successful entrepreneur, philanthropist Pavel Antov passed away," Vice Speaker of the Regional Parliament Vyacheslav Kartukhin said on his Telegram channel, Russian media outlet TASS reported. "On behalf of the deputies of the United Russia faction, I express my deep condolences to relatives and friends."

Ravil Maganov
Putin and Maganov
Russia's President Vladimir Putin (L) and Chairman of the Board of Directors of Oil Company Lukoil Ravil Maganov (R) pose for a photo during an awarding ceremony at the Kremlin in Moscow. Photo by MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV/SPUTNIK/AFP via Getty Images
Lukoil chairman Ravil Maganov had been openly critical of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, CNBC reported. Shortly after the war began, the oil company called for "the soonest termination of the armed conflict," per the report.

Maganov, similar to Antov, died mysteriously by falling out the window of a Moscow hospital in September 2022, the outlet reported. However, a now-deleted statement from Lukoil said that the 67-year-old died "following serious illness."

Dan Rapoport
Businessman Dan Rapoport publicly condemned the Russia-Ukraine war on social media multiple times and emphasized his support for Ukraine, the Daily Beast reported.

He was discovered dead in front of an apartment building in Washington, D.C, in August 2022, according to the report. Police said he had a Florida driver's license, a black hat, just over $2500, and orange flip-flops when he was found.

Mikhail Lesin
Russian press minister Mikhail Lesin was found dead of "blunt force trauma to the head" in a Washington, DC, hotel room in November 2015.

Lesin, who founded the English-language television network Russia Today (RT), was considering making a deal with the FBI to protect himself from corruption charges before his death, per the Daily Beast.

For years, Lesin had been at the heart of political life in Russia and would have known a lot about the inner workings of the rich and powerful.

Boris Nemtsov


He was shot four times in the back just yards from the Kremlin as he walked home from a restaurant in 2015.

Boris Berezovsky

Boris Berezovsky was a Russian oligarch who fled to Britain after he fell out with Putin. During his exile he threatened to bring down Putin by force. He was found dead at his Berkshire home in March 2013 in an apparent suicide, although an inquest into his death recorded an open verdict.

Berezovsky was found dead inside a locked bathroom with a ligature around his neck. The coroner couldn't explain how he had died.

The British police had, on several occasions, investigated alleged assassination attempts against him.

Natalia Estemirova

Natalia Estemirova was a journalist who sometimes worked with Politkovskaya.

She specialized in uncovering human-rights abuses carried out by the Russian state in Chechnya.

She was abducted in 2009 from outside her home and later found in nearby woodland with gunshot wounds to her head. No one has been convicted of her murder.

Stanislav Markelov and Anastasia Baburova
Human-rights lawyer Stanislav Markelov represented Politkovskaya and other journalists who had been critical of Putin.

He was shot by a masked gunman near the Kremlin in 2009. Journalist Anastasia Baburova, who was walking with him, was also shot when she tried to help him.

Alexander Litvinenko

Alexander Litvinenko was a former KGB agent who died three weeks after drinking a cup of tea in 2006 at a London hotel that had been laced with deadly polonium-210.

A British inquiry found that Litvinenko was poisoned by FSB agents Andrei Lugovoi and Dmitry Kovtun, who were acting on orders that had "probably approved by Mr Patrushev and also by President Putin."

Litvinenko was very critical of Putin, accusing him of, among other things, blowing up an apartment block and ordering the murder of journalist Anna Politkovskaya.

Anna Politkovskaya

A picture of slain journalist Anna Politkovskaya is shown during a candlelight vigil in front of the Russian Embassy. Mark Wilson/Getty Images
Anna Politkovskaya was a Russian journalist who was critical of Putin. In her book "Putin's Russia," she accused Putin of turning his country into a police state. She was murdered in 2006 by contract killers who shot her at point-blank range in the lift outside her flat.

Five men were convicted of her murder, but the judge found that it was a contract killing, with $150,000 paid by "a person unknown."

Paul Klebnikov

Paul Klebnikov was the chief editor of the Russian edition of Forbes. He had written about corruption and dug into the lives of wealthy Russians.

He was killed in 2004 in a drive-by shooting in an apparent contract killing, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists.

Sergei Yushenkov

Sergei Yushenkov was a Russian politician who was attempting to prove the Russian state was behind the bombing of an apartment block.

He was killed in 2003 in an assassination by a single shot to the chest just hours after his political organization, Liberal Russia, had been recognized by the Justice Ministry as a party, the BBC reported.

 

[NSJAP]

New Zalyzny interview for WaPo

Key points:

• Ukraine is expected to quickly recapture the territory, although the Armed Forces still haven't received modern fighters, and therefore do not have air superiority;

• It "pisses" me off when I hear that Ukraine's long-awaited counteroffensive has started more slowly than expected;

• I don't need 120 planes. [...] A very limited number would be enough. But they are needed;

• In order for the Ukrainian counteroffensive to advance faster, more weapons are needed. Of every kind;

• The Armed Forces advance every day, even if it is only 500 meters;

• It's not a show the whole world is watching and betting on or anything. Every day, every meter is given by blood;

• About the destroyed western equipment: "we didn’t get Leopards to ride in parades or have politicians or celebrities take pictures with them. They came here for the war. And a Leopard on the battlefield is not a Leopard but a target.";

• About the nukes: It doesn’t stop me at all. We are doing our job. All these signals come from outside for some reason: ‘Be afraid of a nuclear strike.’ Well, should we give up?

 

[World in Scarlet]

The Prime Minister of Poland has requested to deploy US nuclear weapons to Poland in response to Putin doing the same in Belarus.
article
archive
Maybe every NATO country should get nuclear weapons. Maybe Taiwan should. It would make imperialists think twice about military expansionism.

FSB intercepts in the two days Chef was under investigation said he was in contact with Ukrainian Intelligence. Western sources confirmed the contact.

I just don't trust the WaPo to report accurately and they always cite leaked sources that nobody but them has access to or "anonymous officials" saying whatever. Their reporting is also deliberately misleading and contains falsehoods. There is an illusion of many outlets saying the same thing but if you read the article they usually quote the WaPo, or occasionally some other similar trash publication that provides no evidence either. So I remain agnostic until someone puts up something resembling evidence.

New Zalyzny interview for WaPo

I'm not a fan of Ukrainian diplomacy in general, I think it's aggressive to a point of alienating the electorate of donor countries, though I understand why they are upset with the endless delays and everything getting delivered six months after it was needed in half the numbers requested at the time, paying in the blood of their citizens and cities being reduced to rubble for the time wasted. However, I do appreciate that he talks down to all these western retard media "experts" and "anonymous sources" who constantly bitch and moan about things they have no clue about, and throws the reality of the situation in their faces. Nothing he says is new to anyone who follows this war on alternative media, but it's a cathartic response to the trash MSM have been putting out.

 

[East_Clintwood]

the Kirovs were designated 'battlecruisers' to try to end-run around this treaty.

Minor correction, I don't think the Kirovs ever visited the Black Sea, and they're basically the only big ships that weren't built in the Ukrainian yards. I think you're actually thinking of the Kiev's and Kutnetsov's which are totally "heavy aviation cruisers", and definitely not aircraft carriers that would be subject to the Montreux Convention, but otherwise yeah your point stands.

Maybe every NATO country should get nuclear weapons.

Need to go full Oprah with it: You get a nuke, you get a nuke. Everybody gets a nuke

 

[Coffee Mugshot]

I'm not a fan of Ukrainian diplomacy in general

I get this feeling sometimes also, and then I will run across a picture of some 20-something Ukrainian guy in a hospital with half his face blown off or missing limbs or whatever and I realize this is a fraction of what the Ukrainians are seeing pretty much every day. Helps remind me to cut the leadership some slack when they seem grumpy and snippy.

 

[World in Scarlet]

Sorry for the following rant.
The United States has no problems with getting bases in all kinds of countries and even the British negotiated some ports for their use, so how come Russia is the one country that resorts to violence and threats and gets nothing they can't take by force?
Maybe Russians should rethink their foreign policy? Maybe stop being lying pieces of shit and breaking every treaty? Maybe stop gloating about crimes against humanity? Maybe reconcile with neighbors and build normal relations instead of waging unceasing cultural and economic war against them, bribing politicians and financing uprisings?
It makes me think of this old but prescient post from 2013.


Nah, it's all the fault of Americans who bribe the plebs with promises of gay sex, and mind control every single politician outside of the Kremlins AT-Field. Never mind that every tiny country in Europe does what they want and the US regularly eats shit in trade negotiations, and getting Europeans to agree to anything is like herding cats and fails as often as not.


"US controls all" is such a tell for low IQ minds. The world in insanely complex comprised of countless actors, all with their own unknown motivations and means to accomplish them, working towards different ends, and the result of those clashes and compromises is usually something nobody anticipated, let alone wanted. But if you can dumb it down to all outcomes being caused by a single actor's will, the world suddenly looks like something their rotten brains can make sense of.
They also see western media report all kinds of bad things about their country, their army, their weapons, while Chinese and Russia media publish nothing but successes and fluff pieces about their newest Wunderwaffe that is far superior to devil west. And the cattle blindly believe it. The same way cattle in the West believe all their media. But according to the idiots, our media are all lies, but media directly owned and controlled by corrupt authoritarian governments are ones that do investigative journalism and tells us the truth. Facts and logic are Jewish mind tricks to seduce the enlightened away from their perfect social media reality.

 

[Night Crawler]

Don't quote me, but I recall it took anywhere from 12-48 hours.

It was a discussion about why satellites dont work like movies where you can just "zoom in" and get live feed of everything happening anywhere; but IIRC it takes time to make out what the images are actually showing.


Crimea is their "now or never" IMO.
Whether they manage to take it back this war or not is a situation I am doubtful of but not of the opinion its implausible. But basically if they don't get it back now, there is a very serious chance that Russia won't be in such a bumbling-oaf position to exploit the next time.

I agree. Crimea is important especially if the Ukrainians intend to completely defeat the Russians and push them out of Ukraine. It would also be a blow to Russian moral which has to be pretty low as it is.

That video is filled with conjecture stated as if it was fact and the Prigozhin stuff fits in well. As far as I know there's no evidence Prigozhin ever cooperated with Ukrainians in any way, and his behaviour can be explained as him jockeying for power and influence in the byzantine Russian political system.
Claiming that enemies are betraying their own side is an ancient tactic. There was another video where a Ukrainian soldier addressed Russian soldiers saying that they will spare barracks in sectors of the front where Russian soldiers reported to them the exact location of valuable targets. It doesn't matter whether anyone takes them up on, simply stating that decreases trust, and every time some command post or ammunition dump is hit while barracks aren't, that doubt is increased. This degrades the ability of the Russians to communicate and plan.
Similarly Prigozhin is an obvious target for this kind of tactics because he was already in conflict with high ranking courtiers.

As far as I know all the information that is damning to the Russians, which includes the supposed offer by Prigozhin, was never made public and is only paraphrased by the Washington Post (one batch of documents leaked to the public and a second batch allegedly only leaked to the Washington Post), which is a zero credibility trash paper that regularly publishes idiotic articles about the Ukraine war.
If anyone has that second batch, I appreciate if they could share it. It's not in this.

Edit: Another VIED, this time a T-62.
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Which is why I asked. You can't trust those Boomer tier videos on YouTube that have just a voice and some random videos or in this case some cheap animations. Also never trust a video that uses the phrase "spicy boy".

It's kind of funny that the Russians dug those old T-55's and T-62's out of storage and the only thing they do is pack them with explosives and send them towards Ukrainians. Like that will work. No one is going to see a 40 ton tank rolling across a field while suspiciously not firing any of it's guns or anything. It's like the Russians don't understand how IED's work. You are supposed to put them in the ground or hide them so they can be detonated.