Ukrainian Defensive War against the Russian Invasion - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[AgendaPoster]

I don't get why they don't just put like 3 SCALPs or w/e in each part of the bridge to make sure it's fully collapsed. Put 10 if needed. IMO it's worth it as it's quite symbolic, and it would deny Russia this "look we already resumed traffic" press wins.
Truly this conflict is defined by the limited Western weaponry supplies. Kinda frustrating. Just start mass manufacturing of shells and artillery and missiles already and let Ukraine shoot as many as needed, and brainstorm some cheaper stuff that's able to be mass produced at lowered cost. How hard can it be.

 

[Glowie]

Cracks in bridge pillars are normal and nothing to be concerned about.
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Russian air and naval defense is so shit that a drone swarm, storm shadows would goatse those cracks

 

[Vince McMahon]

Hey, I was told that like 1000 times too

Romanians are honorary Slavs, we know.

 

[Ghostse]

Cracks in bridge pillars are normal and nothing to be concerned about.
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I stand corrected about damage. Holy shit.
This is actually about the maximum damage you could do. Those pillars are completely fucked, but intact enough Russia will have to do maximum demo work to tear them down before replacement.
And I guess, coincidentally, could be even more destructive if Russia attempts to repair them instead of replacing them.

Good old Erdy has definitely been falling into line a lot lately. He's still posturing but in the end he's being a pretty good NATO boy.
He did get the big upgrade to the air force in return for NATO expansion in Scandinavia, but it does feel like there's a bigger deal behind the scenes.

Considering he just won an election recently I wouldn't think he needed much politically right now. Maybe foreign money will manufacture a magical bounce to the Turkish Lira soon to prove his islamic economics actually totally work praise Allah.

It seems the Erdog is milking both sides for what he can for the benefit of Turkey and his own prestige. Maybe he's waiting for a Russian offer and if one doesn't come, then Turkey looks good and stronk for dabbing on the Russian military with impunity once again.
The grain deal is more important now than last year too, because the EU is restricting the import of Ukrainian grain to protect farmers in the Eastern countries and Turkey also has an interest in keeping Arab hordes fed and at home.

Erdog wants to be a "Third Axis" of arab/muslim/mideast power, disrupting the Iran/Saudi duality that exists now. This is why Turkey - which was previously quite pro-Israeli - is no longer cooling it with the antisemetic jokes. To this end, Turkey and Russia are having impending collisions in Syria and Azerbaijan, of a more serious nature than the current US policy in Syria of Kurdish protection. Erdog isn't happy with the US backing the Kurds, and has to at least play at being angry about US keeping the Jews from being driven into the sea, plus ongoing slapfights with Greece/Crete (though that's much less of a hot button issue now than 20 or even 10 years ago) but those are minor issues and at the end of the day he'd rather deal with the US than Russia because the US may influence but won't get involved in internal issues (See: US non-intervention in the 2016 coup)
(The US has no policy in Syria, and what policy there is revolves on "Letting the Kurds do their thing and not getting in the way too much". Given the hydrocarbon portion of Turkey is Kurdish and wants to form their own country, this is completely incompatible with Turkey's long term goals.)

So he knows what side his bread is buttered, Russia has been fucking around in Turkey's space, AND he's getting 1/2 of his airforce replaced by top-of-the-line F-16s; he's going to milk his leverage over Biden for everything its worth, but you're goddamn right he's being a Good Boy. He's not crazy or a petulant child like Putin is; he knows when shit is going his way and when that happens you shouldn't try to fuck around.

Ukraine Grain Deal also feeds into Turkey's "3rd-Axis" aspirations - by portraying Turkey as the architect, this cast Erdoggy-dog as the 'savior of the common arab'. I also wouldn't be surprised if there's some PKK intelligence transfer going on as well as a few PKK names going on the international terrorism banking watchlist.

The victims were trying to travel to an active war zone by way of critical military infrastructure at night, for summer holiday.
This is your brain on Russian news.


Also not used for military purposes "for a long time"? I thought it was never used for that? What is a long time, under 5 hours?
Because 5 hours earlier they said this:

To be fair, both sides are quick to call every civilian injury terrorism. The ukes can be just as quick to label a building being blown up as a kindergarten for cancerkids supported by a veteran grandma who invented cold fusion. Lots of civvies are getting rekt because it's a giant war in what is/was a fairly populated part of the world.

Of course, the big asymmetry is that the Ruskis did the whole invasion thing and none of this needed to happen.

The difference is that the Kersch bridge is being used to vitally supply and fund the enemy's economy & military, vs. Random Apartment that just has some people living in it.

I mean Russia launches a missile at Ukrainian Southern Command HQ, misses, and hits an apartment block, that's unfortunate but understandable thing that happens in war. But Russia doesn't seem to be even doing that, it is just straight up lobbing ineffectual missiles randomly into civilian areas to kill randos, or just trying to freeze grandma by hitting the powergrid.

and of course, as you point out, one side invaded the other and started this and thus bears a bit more weight.

With regard to the bridge, it sounds like it'll just be oneway traffic on a piece of it for a while, which I don't think would affect the war much.

Its a little more extreme than that, since there aren't a lot of cross over opportunities. I would think they'd try to a 2/2 split with a concrete barrier down the middle, but not sure how viable that would be. and those supports are looking super great.

I don't get why they don't just put like 3 SCALPs or w/e in each part of the bridge to make sure it's fully collapsed. Put 10 if needed. IMO it's worth it as it's quite symbolic, and it would deny Russia this "look we already resumed traffic" press wins.
Truly this conflict is defined by the limited Western weaponry supplies. Kinda frustrating. Just start mass manufacturing of shells and artillery and missiles already and let Ukraine shoot as many as needed, and brainstorm some cheaper stuff that's able to be mass produced at lowered cost. How hard can it be.

Part of the issue is the high level of AAD put around the bridge - its an important target, Russia knows its an important, high-value target.

And again, daily reminder as we talk about giving Ukraine longer range weapondry:
Iran's missile program wouldn't exist if it wasn't for Ukraine. Post-USSR Ukraine was paid by the US to destroy their Soviet cruise missiles, but instead checked the box marked "Destroyed", listed them as scrap, and then shipped them intact to Iran to be reverse engineered. while that was the moscow puppet regieme, It is naive to trust Ukraine will continue to be a bunch of good boys doin nuffin once the bear is dealt with.

Holy cringe.
View attachment 5215732

What economic domination? I thought Ruzzian economy stronker than ever and sanctions weren't doing anything.

Also man, given how accident prone Russian soldiers are, what with all the smoking that goes on in enginerooms and next to ammo dumps, I dunno if I'd be singing a song about how wonderful it is that they won't be programming nuke coordinates until the last minute.

 

[King George III]

Holy cringe.
View attachment 5215732

Are these fuckers really so delusional that they believe Russia is responsible for the USA's wealth? What kind of fucked up bizarro-world propaganda do you need to ingest to get to this point? It's just as delusional as China's "Middle Kingdom" shit, believing they're the center of the universe.

 

[World in Scarlet]

I stand corrected about damage. Holy shit.

Just to make that clear: These images are from June 1st, they have no relation to the current attack and I do not know whether they are near the place first attack from October 2022.

Iran's missile program wouldn't exist if it wasn't for Ukraine.

I read the Iranian air force relied heavily on Ukrainian aircraft industry to supply spares and other relatively high tech goods that couldn't be produced domestically, and that after the Americans killed Qasem Soleimani, which resulted in Iranians shooting down a civilian Ukrainian airliner, brainlet ideologues took over and replaced realpolitik with emotion driven nonsense like jumping on the sinking ship of the Russian invasion and supplying armaments and machine goods in return for nothing.
Someone please fact check me on that.

 

[Bork Laser]

I don't get why they don't just put like 3 SCALPs or w/e in each part of the bridge to make sure it's fully collapsed. Put 10 if needed. IMO it's worth it as it's quite symbolic, and it would deny Russia this "look we already resumed traffic" press wins.
Truly this conflict is defined by the limited Western weaponry supplies. Kinda frustrating. Just start mass manufacturing of shells and artillery and missiles already and let Ukraine shoot as many as needed, and brainstorm some cheaper stuff that's able to be mass produced at lowered cost. How hard can it be.

It's a balancing act I believe and for three reasons.

1. This isn;t like the cold war where you give a guy a gun and tell him to shoot the other guy and if he does good, he'll get more toys. Military tech has advanced alot and you need to actually train people to use it. That takes time, even if it's only a few weeks. Just giving people advanced weaponry does nothing and without training it just ends up in the enemies hands. Se both Iraq and Afghanistan.

2. There is a legitimate risk if they give too much and too fast, Russia will just go from broke and unleash the nukes. It's a very strange and very weird balancing act. NATO is trying to arm Ukraine in a way that doesn't escalate the situation. But to win the war, Ukraine needs to escalate the situation. If they want to take back Crimea, they 100% have to destroy that bridge. Thats the only way they are going to have a chance to survive pushing there. I'm sure it's been talked about here before but Crimea has always been one of the worst places to be the attacker in a war. It's ridiculously defensible, and even if you win, your going to lose a lot of people. You have to cut off that supply line otherwise the enemy is going to push you back.

3. I don't know if Biden is smart enough for this or if it's the Pentagon, but future proofing. The last thing anyone wants is to give Ukraine all this tech and military experiance and then 10 years later, they are marching into the Balkans because some Serb took a shit on a picture of the current leader. The US should have learned by now "my friend today can be my enemy tomorrow"

 

[World in Scarlet]

The last thing anyone wants is to give Ukraine all this tech and military experiance and then 10 years later, they are marching into the Balkans because some Serb took a shit on a picture of the current leader. The US should have learned by now "my friend today can be my enemy tomorrow"

Ukraine is corrupt, but slowly reforming to become less so, and aspires to join the EU and NATO, democratic processes and proper judiciary and all, and it has a highly educated population with pretty normal European values.
It's not like the shitholes and religious fanatics the US supplied in the past. A big part of their population is now living and working in the EU and integrated better in a year than Muslims have in 40. I think the probability that Ukraine turns into some rogue anti-Western state is pretty much zero; this whole war is happening in the first place because the overwhelming majority of the population want to have a western lifestyle and civil liberties so much. They're fighting on their own accord too, not because some glowies tried to do nation building to turn them into something they're not, like what failed in A-stan or Iraq.

 

[East_Clintwood]

>Be self-proclaimed superpower
>Be this bad at sockpuppeting on the internet

 

[The Demon Pimp of Razgriz]

To be fair, both sides are quick to call every civilian injury terrorism. The ukes can be just as quick to label a building being blown up as a kindergarten for cancerkids supported by a veteran grandma who invented cold fusion. Lots of civvies are getting rekt because it's a giant war in what is/was a fairly populated part of the world.

The difference is that the Kerch Bridge is a legitimate military target, used by the Russian military to move supplies.

Russia has a made a point to attack civilian occupied Ukrainian cities and buildings they know are housing civilians, which is an actual war crime.

 

[Glowie]

The difference is that the Kerch Bridge is a legitimate military target, used by the Russian military to move supplies.

Russia has a made a point to attack civilian occupied Ukrainian cities and buildings they know are housing civilians, which is an actual war crime.

Problem being civilians are not harmed directly like blowing up a dam. Kersch bridge is just that a bridge. Russians choose not to ship in civilian supplies and ship out civilians on ferries.

Military takes priority, human lives are secondary. This is typical asiatic mindset.

 

[mindlessobserver]

The Fundamental Misunderstanding of Turkey and Turkish geopolitics is that it is not Euro centric. Turkey is primarily concerned with North Africa and the Middle East and has been for the last 1,000 years. The only time it has cared about Europe has been in its ability ro assert control over North Africa and the Middle East.

The reason Turkey joined NATO was because the Soviet Union was at the time the existential threat to the Middle East, Following the Soviet invasion of Iran at the close of world War 2, the eruption of communist revolutions in Greece, and the bringing of Bulgaria and Romania, traditional Turkish enemies, into the Soviet fold.

Post cold war however the dynamic shifted, especially once Bush demanded turkey tow the US line with the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Turkey gained the reputation as a feckless ally because it did what it ALWAYS did. Assert preeminence in relation to the Middle East and North Africa. Just as with the Soviets, so too with the Americans. Turkey would not tolerate another great power muscling in on its turf.

now to be sure, there was nor much turkey could do, but they viewed the US adventures in the middle east as transitory and positioned themselves to effortlessly pick up the pieces once the US inevitably failed.

This position was what made Putin think he had a friend in Erdogan. A fellow strong man sticking it to the Americans. The problem for Putin is while the Turks don't like the Americans, they ALSO don't like the Russians and subscribe the Maxim that the enemy of my enemy is still my enemy. Putin has been rather obnoxious lately with his Ukraine war, as well as the Shenanigans in the Caucuses and cosying up to the infidels in Tehran.

Erdogan and by extension Turkey were content to look the other way, as well as block Finland and Sweden (Becuase of those countries self defeating support of the Kurds) but only as long as the Nords refused to drop the Kurds, and Putin maintained the facade that his war in Ukraine was limited.

Both these scenarios are no longer operative. The swedes and Finns dropped the Kurds like hot rocks, while Putin has doubled down on a total war against the principle food supplier of the middle east. All while selling out to Tehran and finding the time to meddle with Turkish aspirations in their own near abroad in the Caucuses and Syria.

Putin gravely misunderstood the Turkish position in this conflict, viewing Turkish resistance to what the USA wanted as somehow being in favor of What Russia wanted. Yet much like how Russia failed to consider what UKRAINE wanted in its Great power games with the US, it also failed to consider what Turkey wanted.

both failures of imagination are now going to cost Moscow dearly.

 

[Pocket Dragoon]

Ukrainian women flash their tits for Ukrainian helicopter crews, boosting morale:
Archive

A Ukrainian helicopter crew told The Sunday Times that women in the country flash them as they fly overhead to boost their morale in fighting Russia.
In a recent feature, the show of support was described by a Ukrainian pilot, identified only by his rank of major and his first name Maksym.
He said his crew saves the GPS locations of places where it happens, lighthearted moment in their dangerous and often demoralizing missions against a far superior Russian air force.
One woman even proposed marriage to them by holding up a sign, he said.
Maksym and his fellow airmen have been flying a Soviet-designed Mil Mi-8 helicopter on daily missions to Bakhmut, an eastern city in Ukraine, which has become a flashpoint in the war.
On their way to their missions they try to keep conversation light and positive, Maksym said, and like to interact with civilians on the ground. They recently threw a bottle of cognac wrapped in a towel to an elderly man they spotted in the war-torn landscape, he said.
These kind of interactions as more viable because the helicopters fly very low to avoid Russian air-defense, often just 15 feet above ground, the Times report said.
The Ukrainian air force is struggling against a far better-armed Russia, Maksym said. The disparity is especially strong between the air forces, which Maksym characterized by saying: "The Russians understand we can do nothing to them in the air."
Ukraine has limited ammunition and no aircraft that counters Russia's newest models in the sky, he said. Half of his unit has already been killed, he added.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy told The Wall Street Journal last month that Russian air superiority would exact a heavy toll on Ukrainian soldiers if Western powers did not provide them with reinforcements.

Ukrainian warzone romances are a lot less gay (and rapey/stabby) than Russia's.

 

[Ghostse]

I read the Iranian air force relied heavily on Ukrainian aircraft industry to supply spares and other relatively high tech goods that couldn't be produced domestically, and that after the Americans killed Qasem Soleimani, which resulted in Iranians shooting down a civilian Ukrainian airliner, brainlet ideologues took over and replaced realpolitik with emotion driven nonsense like jumping on the sinking ship of the Russian invasion and supplying armaments and machine goods in return for nothing.
Someone please fact check me on that.

Tl;dr:
In the past, its very difficult to separate out what was Moscow using Ukraine as their "I'M NOT TOUCHING YOU" cat's paw to fuck with the US, what was some guy who was a KGB General going off the reservation for their own payday, and how much was internally driven Ukrainian decisions (greed or geopolitical aims).

Ukraine did a lot of deals with a lot of whoever. The list was a lot of countries who bought Soviet equipment and needed help maintaining it or wanted to expand their arsenals or increase capabilites, and many of them were on a naughty list or two. What probably noone knows is how much was Ukrainian Greed and how much was Russia Puppeteering so the Kremlin could shrug and say "well, don't look at us, we didn't give Iran any missiles! We just didn't stop the independent nation of Ukraine from selling them, independently. Ok yes they did check with us, but we didn't say it was OK! we just didn't tell to stop because it was allowed by the weapon licensing, we just didn't think they'd do it. We also notified you as soon as we realized it was a serious request and not just a manufacturing license question. We noticed this just about a week after it leaked to the media, which is pure coincidence".

Post-revolution Iran and the USSR have always been bedfellows. They are supporting Assad in Syria, both want US hegemony in the Middle East shattered. There is no question Iran was going to go Russia in this.

Iran doesn't have a lot of global friends, even fewer who would break UN arms sanctions and supply them with weapons or advanced tech. All those rocket parts and precision machined pipes shipped from Ukraine, but everyone knows they were sent by Russia. This is a good chunk of the reason Putin is so booty-blasted about his puppet getting coup'd - no more patsy to do Russia's sanctions-violating transfers.

Iran is making the same political calculus any smart person is making:
-Ukraine isn't a threat to Russia; Russian forces in Ukraine could be all wiped out and Russia's existence as a nation will not be under threat.
- conversely, win or lose in Ukraine, Russia's economy is going to be sanctions fucked for a long time.
- In the past, an economically hurting Russia has enabled sanction skirting to sanctions violating transfers to Iran to make payroll.

So since no matter the outcome Russia will exist after Ukraine, and be economically hurting, it makes sense to go full in bed. I mean, what is the worst going to happen to Iran if they do? Getting hit with Double Secret Sanctions? Additionally, Ukraine serves as the perfect chance to test their drones and shake down their drone production pipeline.
And after Ukraine is resolved?
Iran is owed by Russia, Big Time. And Russia has a lot of shit Iran wants.
From cheap grain, to steel, to oil refining technology... to modern aerospace components, advanced manufacturing, and nuclear experts.

The reason Turkey joined NATO was because the Soviet Union was at the time the existential threat to the Middle East, Following the Soviet invasion of Iran at the close of world War 2, the eruption of communist revolutions in Greece, and the bringing of Bulgaria and Romania, traditional Turkish enemies, into the Soviet fold.

Also because the USSR attempted to force the issue and underestimated Ataturk's ability to pick a competent successor. Inonu figured he could get away with NATO protections and privileges without having to pay too high of a cost, and figured correctly. Such as you Turkey and Greece, members of the same defensive alliance, going to war over Cyprus.

You lay out a good geopolitical case, but Erdoggydog going full good boy is a lot more simple than you expressed:
Putin doesn't have anything to offer anymore. The "2nd strongest army in the world" is shown to been the 3rd most powerful army in Ukraine. Russia is getting clowned by a country 1/4th its size, despite sharing a border. Russia has nothing to offer Turkey that Turkey can't get by backing Ukraine and cashing in Good Boy Points, and Turkey clearly has nothing to fear from Russia.

Additionally, by visibly going against Putin, Erdogan can use Putin's own bluster against him now: Turkey is standing up to Global Super Power Russia! Look! Mighty Russia doesn't dare do shit to shipping on the Black Sea as long as the Turkish Navy is providing escort. If Russia stronk, then how stronk must Turkey be if we're able to get away with this shit and Russia is cowering from the might of our ships and airforce?

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I stand corrected about damage. Holy shit.
This is actually about the maximum damage you could do. Those pillars are completely fucked, but intact enough Russia will have to do maximum demo work to tear them down before replacement.
And I guess, coincidentally, could be even more destructive if Russia attempts to repair them instead of replacing them.

Comrade, nothing to fear, it will be repaired come November

 

[Fanatical Pragmatist]

Russia will just go from broke and unleash the nukes.

I still have a lot of trouble believing that Russia is just gonna open up MAA/MAD and usher in global nuclear armageddon just because they are butthurt about Ukraine getting new gear

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

I still have a lot of trouble believing that Russia is just gonna open up MAA/MAD and usher in global nuclear armageddon just because they are butthurt about Ukraine getting new gear

There's a limit to how retarded even Putin can be.

 

[Ghostse]

I still have a lot of trouble believing that Russia is just gonna open up MAA/MAD and usher in global nuclear armageddon just because they are butthurt about Ukraine getting new gear

Agreed. The Muh WWIII useful idiots need to unbunch their panties.

I am guessing @Bork Laser was using a short hand and meant that forgetting all the other issues, if tons of new top-of-the-line NATO hardware starts showing up in Ukraine, Russia might green-light the use (or more frequent use) of a wider array of bigger conventional weapons, and may get less discriminatory about what sort of targets they use it against.

I.e. Previously they were lobbing S-300 missles with AA payloads into neighborhoods. 400 F-16's arrive, and they might start putting thermobaric warheads on the next wave.

 

[Astro Galactic Megalul]

Europe loves Russian money, to the surprise of no one

 

[Vince McMahon]

As Tragic as this war has been Zelinsky has gone as far as persecuting Christians in his own country trying to seize Kiev Caves Lavra and give it to a bunch of Schismatics the war needs to end but the West should really stop treating Zelinsky like a good boi of din do nuffin.

>Ukraine
>Establishes a home church, correcting a 500 year old wrong, when Moscow Patriarchy assumed clerical control of Kyivan Canonical Lands, that were reporting directly to Constantinople.
>Roots out devil's servants (UOC MP), who are basically all FSB spooks and sodomites.

-----

>Blessed Russia
>Oppresses anything that is not ROC and Islam like in good ole imperial times, including protestant churches and JWs (they are silly and heretics though).


Yeah, I think Zelenskyyyyyy really dindu here