- Joined
- Oct 14, 2023
Regardless of who is in congress or who is President, the result in the Middle East will not be determined by the USA. If we provide arms or don't will not alter what has been unleashed by Hamas and the possible scenario of Iran and Lebanon becoming involved.
Some times war is entirely unavoidable; the only question is will this escalate into a true Middle East War that ends up involving Europe and the USA, I give it 60% probability. Much depends on the will of Lebanon and Iran and if they consider this an opportune time to jump in. I'm not sure there is enough upside for Iran in this.
Given the economic situation globally, turning to War to remove stress of populations undergoing increased financial stress - particularly in China as their economy is looking incredibly shaky - is a wise move historically and unites divided peoples.
I'd imagine China is shoring up and licking it lips considering if War breaks out in the Middle East, what their chances will be of taking Taiwan with the USA only able to commit half their forces to the West Pacific. It would be a wonderful distraction from their soaring unemployment and crashing property markets.
Agreed that ultimately, the USA intervening or not is irrelevant. It's not like Hamas will be able to keep us very busy or anything. I think like people have mentioned earlier is that Iran isn't stupid. They won't strike unless they have a shot at actually winning and Gaza is likely not the hill they want to die on. One of their main allies, Russia, is still caught up in a gay war becoming China's oil bitch so they're no help. I wouldn't even take their military advice at this point. However, the population is so riled up though that they wouldn't think twice about it. It'd be hard to get so much support again. Other random countries might join in and then the entire Middle East is set ablaze. Big roll of the dice but once in a lifetime opportunity.
China is a fucking wildcard. We know they're going to do whatever they view as in their best interest but their thought process is a mystery.