Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

How many more days do you all think this war will last?
I'd expect that America would try to push to end it in a month or so, only to find out that Russia will not listen to their rather insulting negotiations. The war will go on for another year or so, until Ukraine is forced to fully surrender to Russia's terms.
 
How many more days do you all think this war will last?
The Russians have to at a minimum take Avdiivka before they can decide to end the war. The Ukrainian Army has to be moved back to a point where they can no longer shell the city of Donetsk.

On the NATO/American side, ending the war is all tied up with the 2024 elections in the United States.

A long stalemate in the war where neither side launches any major offensive actions might be possible. Similar to the final years of the Korean War.
 
How many more days do you all think this war will last?
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Search your feelings. You know this to be true.
 
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Ukraine top jew went from being photogenic to being a living Hope and optimism gone meme. Hamas did more damage to Ukraine than Israel.

Hamas ended the war for Ukraine on the morning hours of October 7th, 2023.

A day that will live in infamy for everyone that fully invested all their investments in Ukraine and not leave some for our greatest ally.

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Putin better give Hamas medals and support for this.

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How many more days do you all think this war will last?
Before the Gaza shenanigans I was thinking at least one year, maybe two more years.

Now, I have no idea. I suspect it will continue in some kind of reduced form over the winter, with little direct activity by either side, then I guess it all depends where the USA wants to allocate gimmiedats, whether to Israel or to Ukraine. If Israel gets all or most of the material, say by June or July it will be all over for Ukraine. Time will tell, but I don't see how anyone can credibly now say anything but a Russian victory is the ultimate end.
 
Before the Gaza shenanigans I was thinking at least one year, maybe two more years.

Now, I have no idea. I suspect it will continue in some kind of reduced form over the winter, with little direct activity by either side, then I guess it all depends where the USA wants to allocate gimmiedats, whether to Israel or to Ukraine. If Israel gets all or most of the material, say by June or July it will be all over for Ukraine. Time will tell, but I don't see how anyone can credibly now say anything but a Russian victory is the ultimate end.
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Ukraine top jew went from being photogenic to being a living Hope and optimism gone meme. Hamas did more damage to Ukraine than Israel.
The latest round of fireworks in the MidEast didn't kill Ukraine's momentum or hope for coming out of this shitshow on top - them losing this war was pretty much set in stone months ago. Their much celebrated "counter-offensive" was a damp squib that probably chewed up more Ukrainian soldiers and equipment in a few months than in the entire previous year of fighting, and the available NATO munitions stocks had already been bled dry without even getting into the fact that we were completely behind on being able to manufacture replacements.
The Russians have to at a minimum take Avdiivka before they can decide to end the war. The Ukrainian Army has to be moved back to a point where they can no longer shell the city of Donetsk.

On the NATO/American side, ending the war is all tied up with the 2024 elections in the United States.

A long stalemate in the war where neither side launches any major offensive actions might be possible. Similar to the final years of the Korean War.
The Russians probably also want to have another go at retaking Kharkov and Kherson, just to further solidify their hold over the region (and the fact that Kherson was officially made a Russian territory last year). If they're feeling particularly confident/ambitious/vindictive, they might also make a go at Odessa, simply to further economically choke off Ukraine and deny the US from having a potential naval base that's anywhere near Sevastopol.
 
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The latest round of fireworks in the MidEast didn't kill Ukraine's momentum or hope for coming out of this shitshow on top - them losing this war was pretty much set in stone months ago. Their much celebrated "counter-offensive" was a damp squib that probably chewed up more Ukrainian soldiers and equipment in a few months than in the entire previous year of fighting, and the available NATO munitions stocks had already been bled dry without even getting into the fact that we were completely behind on being able to manufacture replacements.

The Russians probably also want to have another go at retaking Kharkov and Kherson, just to further solidify their hold over the region (and the fact that Kherson was officially made a Russian territory last year). If they're feeling particularly confident/ambitious/vindictive, they might also make a go at Odessa, simply to further economically choke off Ukraine and deny the US from having a potential naval base that's anywhere near Sevastopol.
With turkeys ambition to become Ottoman Empire 2.0... it is interesting how this dynamic will play out in the black Sea.... Russia and Turkey allying together....
 
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With turkeys ambition to become Ottoman Empire 2.0... it is interesting how this dynamic will play out in the black Sea.... Russia and Turkey allying together....
X to doubt.

While Putin and the people around him would no doubt love for Turkey to fall out of the US/NATO orbit, they're also probably smart enough to recognize that Erdogan the wanna-be little Sultan is too much of a loose cannon to tie yourself to and that the man is ultimately only out for himself.

Besides, Erdogan's Ottoman Empire 2.0 dream runs counter to Russia's interests in and relationships with Syria and Iran.
 
The first surrender of a pregnant Ukrainian soldier

The woman shouted "Don't beat me! I'm pregnant!"
Russians asked her "What have you forgotten here, miss pregnant?"


Presumably the Ukrainian channel "1+1" called the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces a psyop, which did not happen and was used to scare the Russians, while the army is preparing for a real counteroffensive, and the psyop is so successful that it will be studied in history.

After all, they are both ethnostate
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But what if I come to Russia as a skilled tradesman, already able to speak/read some Russian, and I'm ready to assimilate?
Play any Patrick Lancaster video.
Hear his level of Russian
Realize that he has built his entire career on his language skills as a journalist, often confusing those he interviews .
Realize that he somehow spent years in Russia with such language skills.
Realize that he has a Russian wife and kids

Go for it; why the hell not?
 
Presumably the Ukrainian channel "1+1" called the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces a psyop, which did not happen and was used to scare the Russians, while the army is preparing for a real counteroffensive, and the psyop is so successful that it will be studied in history.
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:story:

So they're saying that all those soldiers that horrifically got their legs blown off and countless valuable pieces of irreplaceable NATO equipment that got slagged were all part of a massive psyop?

I guess when you're out proclaiming that the Russians managing to hold off your much-vaunted counter-offensive is a psyop, shit like this is the next logical step.

EDIT: I just realized something. You know exactly what this reminds me of?
 
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Presumably the Ukrainian channel "1+1" called the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces a psyop, which did not happen and was used to scare the Russians, while the army is preparing for a real counteroffensive, and the psyop is so successful that it will be studied in history.
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The more I hear it the more it all sounds like something Zapp Brannigan would say... or do.
 
Lol wut? Have you not been lurking here that much?

Plenty of both of those have been completely slaged countless times at this point. There's a video of a Lancet 1 actually scoring a complete through and through on a Leotard a ways back. Also, plenty of times the crews of both sides have escaped from even the older model Soviet era vehicles when knocked out.

What the fuck are you even on?


This is some Lazernig tier retardation.
Ah your replies live up to the username.

The Russian mobiks burning to death after their BMP-2 rolls over a mine or when their ammo carousel blows their tank turret into space probably beg to differ.

I wish I had saved the video but it was a Russian BMP-2 hitting a mine and the vehicle becoming a fireball. The commander tried to get out of the turret (on fire) yet he falls into the burning crew compartment. That IFV can never carry the armor or have fuel and ammo storage designed in a way to mitigate or eliminate the "rolling funeral pyre" effect, due to it's design.

Or the Russian helicopters turned into scrap metal because Russian AD couldn't deal with first gen ATACMS missiles

Or Russian AD failing to intercept cruise missiles and getting a sub destroyed in drydock


Etc etc.....

Most Russian hardware is Soviet hardware with better sights and improved engines.

The BMP is relatively thinly armored no matter what model it is.

The T-72/80/90 series all have the ammunition situated in a manner that means the entire tank explodes or bursts into flame within SECONDS of the carrousel being hit.


All AFVs burn eventually, Western ones made after the 1970s usually burn slower and give more time to get out. The 1960s vintage Leopard 1s Ukraine is getting are death traps.

Soviet afv design philosophy was "be smaller, have a low silhouette, don't get hit". Sadly modern Electo optics, drones, and thermals negate that.
 
Presumably the Ukrainian channel "1+1" called the counteroffensive of the Ukrainian armed forces a psyop, which did not happen and was used to scare the Russians, while the army is preparing for a real counteroffensive, and the psyop is so successful that it will be studied in history.

Ironically they are repeating American neocon nonsense that has been around for months. Its an existential counteroffensive designed to defeat the Russians in their minds.

From the American Neocon journal "the Atlantic" June 8, 2023 by Anne Applebaum. The piece is entitled "The True Purpose of Ukraine’s Counteroffensive"


"This counteroffensive will also look different from the D-Day movies because Ukraine’s goals are not merely military. Yes, Ukrainian troops are probing Russian defenses up and down the 1,000-kilometer front line. Yes, the Ukrainians are conducting “shaping operations,” hitting ammunition dumps and other targets behind Russian lines. Yes, Ukraine wants to take back territory lost since February 2022, as well as territory lost in 2014. Yes, we know the Ukrainians can do it, because they’ve done it before.
......
But in addition to taking back land, they are also conducting a sort of psychological shaping operation: They have to convince the Russian elite that the war was a mistake and that Russia can’t win it, not in the short term and not in the long term, either. Toward this end, they are also seeking to convince ordinary Russians that they aren’t as safe as they thought, that the war is nearer to their own homes than they believed, and that President Vladimir Putin isn’t as wise as they imagined. And the Ukrainians have to do all of this without a full-scale invasion of Russia, without occupying Moscow, and without a spectacular Russian surrender in Red Square."

Anne Applebaum had a new article in the Atlantic today. She was in a panic about the possibility of negotiations to end the war. She was full of new bad ideas:

- The sanctions on Russia have not worked because there are too many sanctions and the sanctions are too complex to understand or enforce. Therefore we need new sanctions.
- The US government should start buying up and stockpiling raw commodities associated with military weapons production. Every commodity we buy up will deny the Russians weapons production.
- The US needs to give all the money and all the assets confiscated from Russia and Russians to Ukraine. Because this will show the Ukrainian people that we are serious about reparations for the war.
- The US and NATO should shift to a war economy. The production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine should become national priorities everywhere no matter what the economic price.
- The US itself needs to start directly sabotaging Russian military industries.

Its the same sort of insane neocon thinking that was displayed toward the end of the original war in Iraq. Neocons like Anne Applebaum know that they are losing the battle of ideas and that the only ideas that they have are so extreme that they will not be politically acceptable to anyone. You can tell from the article that people beyond certain republicans are now souring on the war policy. That she can't convince people who are her friends and who are on her own side to stick with the war.
 
Ah your replies live up to the username.
Ah, Reddit, nice to know
The Russian mobiks burning to death after their BMP-2 rolls over a mine or when their ammo carousel blows their tank turret into space probably beg to differ.

I wish I had saved the video but it was a Russian BMP-2 hitting a mine and the vehicle becoming a fireball. The commander tried to get out of the turret (on fire) yet he falls into the burning crew compartment. That IFV can never carry the armor or have fuel and ammo storage designed in a way to mitigate or eliminate the "rolling funeral pyre" effect, due to it's design.

Or the Russian helicopters turned into scrap metal because Russian AD couldn't deal with first gen ATACMS missiles

Or Russian AD failing to intercept cruise missiles and getting a sub destroyed in drydock


Etc etc.....

Most Russian hardware is Soviet hardware with better sights and improved engines.

The BMP is relatively thinly armored no matter what model it is.

The T-72/80/90 series all have the ammunition situated in a manner that means the entire tank explodes or bursts into flame within SECONDS of the carrousel being hit.


All AFVs burn eventually, Western ones made after the 1970s usually burn slower and give more time to get out. The 1960s vintage Leopard 1s Ukraine is getting are death traps.

Soviet afv design philosophy was "be smaller, have a low silhouette, don't get hit". Sadly modern Electo optics, drones, and thermals negate that.
Lazer nig has a thread here now and it's well deserved.
 
Anne Applebaum had a new article in the Atlantic today. She was in a panic about the possibility of negotiations to end the war. She was full of new bad ideas:

- The sanctions on Russia have not worked because there are too many sanctions and the sanctions are too complex to understand or enforce. Therefore we need new sanctions.
"What we're currently doing is too complex and isn't working. Therefore, we need to keep doing that thing that is too complex and isn't working."
- The US government should start buying up and stockpiling raw commodities associated with military weapons production. Every commodity we buy up will deny the Russians weapons production.
Good thing that Russia isn't a large, resource rich country who's entire arms industry was designed to be self-sufficient and not require outside sources to function. Oh, wait...
- The US needs to give all the money and all the assets confiscated from Russia and Russians to Ukraine. Because this will show the Ukrainian people that we are serious about reparations for the war.
And that surely won't just be skimmed from and plundered like the rest of the billions of US and European taxpayer monies that we've thrown down that disgustingly corrupt rathole of a country.
- The US and NATO should shift to a war economy. The production of weapons and ammunition for Ukraine should become national priorities everywhere no matter what the economic price.
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- The US itself needs to start directly sabotaging Russian military industries.
These Neocon chickenshithawks sold the Ukraine proxy war entirely on the notion that it wouldn't bring us into danger of conflict with Russia because we wouldn't be directly getting involved. Now you wants us to get into danger of conflict with Russia by getting directly involved. Fucking neck yourself, Anne.
 
I have heard rumors of hohol nazis joining the IDF but I don't know how true that is.
Hard press X to doubt. I feel like Z man has made his country the next fall guy for any atrocity the US wants to commit but doesn't want to take credit for. It's like those "Ukrainians" getting rolled up by Wagner in Africa recently or those "Ukrainians" that bombed the Nordstream pipeline. They're kind of like those "deserter" tier one operatives which keep turning up dead in Ukraine.
 
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