Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Did any info come up about the Chef's rebellion and death since then, or the current state of things is still that there was no 4D chess master plan, and Wagner just got uppity before being rolled into the Russian army?

Prigozhin had gotten out of line by making public statements attacking his rivals in the army and MOD. He fell in love with the sound of his own voice and started to think he deserved a greater official role than he had. He forced the political leadership to make a choice between him and the army. They picked the army and the consequence of that was him losing his private army.
When the order to merge his forces into the military came, he wasn't going to accept it and started preparations for a half-ass coup attempt.

He released a video claiming that the army had attacked his troops. He talked about a march for justice to Moscow by his group. But then he launched into an attack on the special military operation as a whole and said it wasn't necessary. The point where he switched from claiming to want "justice" for his men to attacking the Special Military Operation is the point where he made his intentions to overthrow the government clear. If he were angling for political concessions or a different job, he would not have made that video attacking the entire special military operation.

I think he expected the military to either stand aside, for there to be a mutiny or for Putin to somehow lose his nerve in the situation. Or perhaps expected a civil uprising in Moscow against the war. And when none of that happened, he himself lost his nerve and negotiated an end to his rebellion.

IMO, the whole thing was similar to the French coup attempt during the war in Algeria in 1961. Military leaders who had gotten used to being insuborinate came to think of themselves as popular enough to overthrow the government but when the time came, they were not as popular as they thought themselves to be.

There are rumors that his original plan included taking the minister of defense and chief of staff hostage. There is also a rumor that he originally intended to kick things off with a speech in the state duma against the government. I dont think either of those things would have helped much.

He miscalculated his own personal popularity and he got used to acting like an arrogant spoiled child in public. He lost at politics and then he made a big move with his army instead. He put everything on the line and lost. But nothing he did seemed like 4-D chess. It was the opposite actually.
 
Is Pringo actually dead though?
The last time he "died" in a plane crash in Africa turned out to be a pile of nonsense.
He's dead Jim.
He's not dead, he's just carefully plotting his revenge in Africa, something about creating a weapon to surpass Metal Gear, whatever the hell that means.
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The four-star admiral of a six-frigate navy warned today that everyone in NATO has to be prepared for an all-out war with Russia in the next twenty years. Admiral Bauer of the now almost imaginary Netherlands Navy is somehow the chairman of NATOs military committee and said this.

This follows on to the Swedish's governments announcement that the people of the country needed to prepare for a war to be fought inside Sweden.

Things are starting to really look like they are moving in the direction of something like a war panic. But I can't believe that any of these countries have the will to actually follow through with the sort of spending and standard of living reductions that moving to war economies is going to involve.
 
The four-star admiral of a six-frigate navy warned today that everyone in NATO has to be prepared for an all-out war with Russia in the next twenty years. Admiral Bauer of the now almost imaginary Netherlands Navy is somehow the chairman of NATOs military committee and said this.

This follows on to the Swedish's governments announcement that the people of the country needed to prepare for a war to be fought inside Sweden.

Things are starting to really look like they are moving in the direction of something like a war panic. But I can't believe that any of these countries have the will to actually follow through with the sort of spending and standard of living reductions that moving to war economies is going to involve.
Yeah there is just absolutely no way. At most some countries might flush a bunch of money down the shitter and buy the latest insanely overpriced American shit like the F-35s, and then fail to budget for maintenance and operating costs so they'll sit in hangars while dust collects on them. Europe itself can't really make its own gear in large quantities - there are no resources, no qualified workforce (I fucking DARE European ammo manufacturers to employ Achmed and Muhammad on the assembly line!), and energy is expensive and it will only continue to get worse as schools keep churning out illiterate retards whose aspirations in life are to become an influencer, and green policies plunge the whole continent into energy poverty.

Reductions in standard of living are coming either way. Early on, just after the invasion first started in 2022, a friend asked me what I thought. I said that the sanction on Russia might set them back into the 1960s, but they'd set Europe back into the 1860s. Turns out I was wrong about Russia.
 
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The four-star admiral of a six-frigate navy warned today that everyone in NATO has to be prepared for an all-out war with Russia in the next twenty years.
It's not going to stay a six frigate navy because
Reductions in standard of living are coming either way.
They will impoverish us in order to make the ships, tanks and drones they need for their World War with Russia and China, and anyone else who joins them. Then they will take all the young men and women and indoctrinate them further so that they will demand to fight Russia and anyone who is aligned with her

You think it was hyperbole when I said the Ukraine was a proving ground for Russia and the West? It's not simply munitions and drones, its also testing to see what works best with the meat.

Ukrainian nationalists didn't spring up overnight. The kind that denounces his family and people to side with Ukronazis and then attacks anyone who speaks reason had to be created. Those articles and posts attacking China are also carefully curated, the videos portraying the Chinese as bug people are also crafted to dehumanize Chinese. They are most certainly planning a new world war.
 
Forgot about that. It's hard to keep up since Putler funds 90% of all media at this point.
It is really impressive that Russia, despite these crippling sanctions which have left the country to be the poorest in the world and is seeing Russians literally starving to death by the millions, can somehow afford to bribe half the world's politicians, all businessmen, and news media outlets outside of the "truly free" journalists at Salon or MSNBC.
 
Prigozhin had gotten out of line by making public statements attacking his rivals in the army and MOD. He fell in love with the sound of his own voice and started to think he deserved a greater official role than he had. He forced the political leadership to make a choice between him and the army. They picked the army and the consequence of that was him losing his private army.
I think that this thing was inevitable basically. When you have mercenary force that replaces the functions of the military it just inevitably becomes a threat to the state. Even if you the mercenary leaders don't plan on seizing power some of your subordinates will want to, also the people currently in power have to be incredibly afraid of it happening. There have been rumors that the real reason Blackwater was prosecuted was because Erik Prince had infiltrated a lot of the special forces and they feared him overthrowing the state.
Is Pringo actually dead though?
The last time he "died" in a plane crash in Africa turned out to be a pile of nonsense.
I think he probably actually is. Though I understand why he was killed if he indeed was. The sad thing though is that two of Wagner's top guys were also killed in this crash. There was a specialist in logistics who managed to pull off some crazy things, as supplying troops in Africa is difficult and an excellent operational commander both killed in the plane crash. Also Surovikin has been placed on leave because of this which was a great loss. He is an excellent commander and has been at least somewhat responsible for many successes Russia has had.

I think it is more likely than not that he was killed by Putin. It could be an accident or maybe someone else killed him but the most reasonable explanation is that Putin did so. I don't consider Putin wrong to do so if he did but he should have had a trial and a public execution rather than this in the dark bullshit.
Things are starting to really look like they are moving in the direction of something like a war panic. But I can't believe that any of these countries have the will to actually follow through with the sort of spending and standard of living reductions that moving to war economies is going to involve.
There is a lot of talk but not a lot of concrete action. I think it is mostly just powerful people realizing that the American Empire is flailing about in death throes with its organs hanging out soon to die.
They will impoverish us in order to make the ships, tanks and drones they need for their World War with Russia and China, and anyone else who joins them. Then they will take all the young men and women and indoctrinate them further so that they will demand to fight Russia and anyone who is aligned with her
I think they are willing and leaving aside if that is even politically possible in the west, you can't magic up factories in a day. Extremely capable people can make factories that run somewhat poorly in the beginning maybe in a couple years. And the people who would be allowed to make these factories are not even barely capable. If you sped up the bureaucratic processes and were really trying you might manage it in a year. But the bureaucracy isn't going to let that happen. This is besides the fact congress tells defense contractors that they will buy a certain amount of equipment and please build it and then the defense contractors do and then congress suddenly is missing the money to actually buy it and doesn't pay for it and the defense contractors lose money a lot of money.

There are economic things you could do to try and prepare to fight a war with China in 3 years or in 5 years or sometime soon. The real world actionable things that could be done are not being done.

Besides the fact that in order to build an industry that could compete with China enough to actually win a war against them would take at least 2 decades. The economic reality just isn't there.
Ukrainian nationalists didn't spring up overnight. The kind that denounces his family and people to side with Ukronazis and then attacks anyone who speaks reason had to be created. Those articles and posts attacking China are also carefully curated, the videos portraying the Chinese as bug people are also crafted to dehumanize Chinese. They are most certainly planning a new world war.
You may be right that they are planning a war and they are trying to get the west ready to fight that war. But the issue is the only thing our elites can do and the only thing that they actually really do is marketing. To them a bit of good marketing is enough to fix any problem. But of course that is not true.

I could see the regime trying to fight a deathwar rather than giving up power. That has worked exactly one time in history to my knowledge. The French Directory managed to actually win the French Revolutionary wars. This happened because even though the previous government was incredibly corrupt, France was still incredibly wealthy and its foreign opponents were poorly organized. The opposite is true of the US and its opponents. The US despite the GDP figures never being higher is actually a poor country. Also interesting to note the French Directory eventually got replaced and the people that replaced them got replaced as well.

I'm not sure the current Regime even has the juice to pull off actually declaring war. But even if it does it won't win and the people that do it will be replaced using violence.

A lot of people could die and probably will die one way or another when the current regime dies. Maybe things will be nice and comfy like with the velvet revolution but almost certainly not. This is unfortunate and sad but that is the way these things go and while the Regime is still barely alive a lot of people are dying continuously.

I don't.

The rest are Banderites or pussies too scared to stand up to the Banderites.
The thing about that is people did try to stop Zelensky. They tried to stop him even being elected because they knew. But they failed. People even tried to stop the events in 2014. Some of them were burned alive.

Also something to consider. It is one thing to stand up to Banderites and face death yourself it is another to doom your family to be tortured to death. If someone has the ability to torture my family to death and will do so if I do something I just won't do that thing.

I feel sympathy especially because a similar thing has happened to America. A lot of the things that happened to the US in the 20th century weren't as much of a choice as the regime would like us to believe. But large chunks of the actually American populace chose what has happened and as a result the nation I love the place I am from, my home has been systematically looted and raped. How could I not feel sympathy for a Ukrainian who had something similar happen to his country?
 
you can't magic up factories in a day
A good deal of German manufacturing has relocated to the US in the wake of the high price of fuel.
in order to build an industry that could compete with China enough to actually win a war against them would take at least 2 decades
I agree. It will also take that long to re-tool the US military and roll back the tranny nonsense as well as raise a crop of American and immigrant nationalists to fight Russia. Why do you think they left the border wide open? They need meat for the meatgrinder.
How could I not feel sympathy for a Ukrainian who had something similar happen to his country?
You can be sympathetic that a once beautiful and friendly doggo was infected with rabies, and is now a one-eyed, stinking, snarling cur with dirty, matted fur who cannot be saved, so the kindest thing is to mercy kill him.

And do your best to make sure it doesn't happen to you, or your loved ones.
 
Though the western media has ceased to pay attention to the issue, the new Ukrainian conscription law was basically dead on arrival. The feedback on the law from lawmakers and the government was:

1) Closing loopholes in conscription and punishing those who refused to serve was considered a violation of human rights. A very serious matter in Ukraine.
2) Zelensky said that the government has no money to pay more soldiers. That to pay the wages of one soldier, five people needed to be working and paying taxes in the Ukrainian economy.
3) The Ukrainian anti-corruption agency saw grave potential for corruption in removing exemptions from conscription.
4) The European Business Association said that the law would not be good for Ukrainian businesses and that the law violated basic rights of Ukrainian businesses.

Zelensky also made it clear that it was the military asking for this bill rather than him. And he had no idea why they needed more soldiers.

LINK

In the aftermath of failing to pass the bill, the government then put other new measures in place which created massive new excemptions from military service for those employed in businesses considered by the government to be critical to the war.

The exemption from conscription will apply regardless of military rank, age, any military specialization and without limitations on the number of workers to be given the exemption. If you work for a company labeled critical by the government in any capacity, you don't get conscripted.

The mention of "military rank" makes me wonder if this wonderful new program will even allow people currently serving to get out of the military if given employment in the right company.

LINK
 
In the aftermath of failing to pass the bill, the government then put other new measures in place which created massive new excemptions from military service for those employed in businesses considered by the government to be critical to the war.

The exemption from conscription will apply regardless of military rank, age, any military specialization and without limitations on the number of workers to be given the exemption. If you work for a company labeled critical by the government in any capacity, you don't get conscripted.

The mention of "military rank" makes me wonder if this wonderful new program will even allow people currently serving to get out of the military if given employment in the right company.
That's a positive change in direction, they are pulling people in more sensitive positions away from the war. With the recent drain it's possible that almost every surviving soldier could find a job that makes them exempt from the meat grinder. This is a message to the millitary of "enough, figure things out without killing our people" and is likely the last step before surrender. Unless NATO chooses to donate warm bodies to fight instead.
 
A good deal of German manufacturing has relocated to the US in the wake of the high price of fuel.
That was the plan but it has not seemed to work very successfully. The US economy has been kept afloat via artificial construction projects funded via deficit spending. Besides the actually hard part for the US that Germany has that we do not is not engineering or business but either finding or building a skilled workforce. Importing a few engineers and business people from Germany won't fix that issue. The US actually has really good engineers and (emphasis on SOME) some good businessmen.

Edit: I haven't looked in detail for any of the German or European companies that have moved to the US and I would be happy to be proven wrong.
The mention of "military rank" makes me wonder if this wonderful new program will even allow people currently serving to get out of the military if given employment in the right company.
I think what is happening is Ukraine is going to allow people with extremely valuable skills that contribute to the economy to stop being soldiers/be exempt. It seems like Ukraine is having issues with is not only finding people to fill the ranks but also even managing to pay soldiers and buy basic supplies.

likely the last step before surrender
I think that this is probably optimistic. But it could be a threat of surrender as well. Ukraine could being using this to try and get more aid money. Only time will tell.

The other thing is if certain industries get this special exemption that makes them much more powerful in comparison to other companies. Also I bet if you pay enough money to the right people you can gain this special status. I sometimes like to view every political action through the lens of "what policies can I enact to enrich myself and my friends" and if this status can be sold that absolutely applies.
 
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