Erin Reed / Anthony Reed II / @ErinInTheMorn / @ErinInTheMorning / @ErinInTheNight / _supernovasky_ / beholderseye / realitybias / AnonymousRabbit - post-op transbian Twitter/TikTok "activist" with bad fashion, giant Reddit tattoo. Former drug dealer with felony. Married to Zooey Simone Zephyr / Zachary Todd Raasch.

Pamela Paul posted a short response to the troons' hysterics yesterday, which included links to both Tony's and Vanessa / Evan Urquhart's blog posts. Conversations and insights about the moment. - The New York Times (archive; archive via Tor)

Full text below, but here's the sentence where she links to Tony:
Pamela Paul said:
While a number of outspoken transgender activists — several of whom wrote about their reactions to the reporting in my column — say the rates are low, studies often cited to make this claim are demonstrably unreliable.
Which, if you're going to sum up this matter in one sentence, is pretty good.

Also:
Pamela Paul said:
Admitting you don’t have an answer is hard, but it’s especially important for journalists to do so.
:story: I find this especially funny because, in every incarnation, Tony has always claimed to have The Answer.

Here's the full thing. It's short and good, I recommend reading it.
Pamela Paul said:

The Courage to Admit You Don’t Know​

Pamela Paul, 2024-02-05 19:30:01 +00:00

My column on Friday about detransitioners, people who no longer believe they are transgender, was a way to explore some of the problems in how we treat gender-dysphoric youth. One common response from those who favor the current treatment model, which proponents call gender-affirming care, is that very few people detransition.

Are they right?

It would be great to have a definitive answer either way. But the truth is we don’t know. While a number of outspoken transgender activists — several of whom wrote about their reactions to the reporting in my column — say the rates are low, studies often cited to make this claim are demonstrably unreliable.

As I wrote in my column, "Nobody knows how many young people desist after social, medical or surgical transitions." Admitting you don’t have an answer is hard, but it’s especially important for journalists to do so.

Here is some context for readers to weigh assertions to the contrary.

First, consider human nature: People change their minds all the time. Second, admitting to a mistake is hard for anyone — and for many detransitioners, it can feel like a very public reversal. Third, it can take a long time for transition regret to manifest, and for patients to make the decision to detransition.

It is especially hard for kids who are making decisions about their identities when those identities are still evolving. Many construct their lives around this new identity. To admit they have changed their minds, especially during the excruciatingly self-conscious period of adolescence, when they are deeply susceptible to peer judgment, is that much harder. The effects of medical transition — facial hair growth, breast growth or removal, vocal changes — are often irreversible. For some, it can feel like there’s no going back.

We do have some reliable data that indicate detransition rates are higher than transgender advocacy groups suggest. (The Society for Evidence-Based Gender Medicine, one of the most reliable nonpartisan organizations dedicated to the field, has a full explainer of the methodological problems with the studies that insist otherwise.)

We also know that more detransitioners are going public with their decisions. They deserve our compassion. There will likely be a rocky road ahead for them and everyone involved in their care. Some are currently engaged in high-profile malpractice lawsuits against those who medicalized them as minors.

As awareness grows, my hope is that more, and better, independent research on this complex issue will move forward.

Tony wrote a Twitter thread in response:
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Tony said:
Erin Reed • @ErinInTheMorn • 2024-02-05 23:45:06 UTC

Pamela Paul just responded to my criticism of her NYT trans article directly, with no facts.

She claims it takes "courage to admit you don't know" detransition rates are (single digits), but in her original article... she falsely says 80%, citing decades old out of date data.

Erin Reed • @ErinInTheMorn • 2024-02-05 23:45:06 UTC

I'm glad she felt pressured to respond. That means my article is working - I know that it is currently being passed around academic listservs and she's getting heat for the extreme falsehoods and factually incorrect claims.

Read my debunking here:
erininthemorning.com Debunked: Misleading NYT Anti-Trans Article By Pamela Paul Relies On Pseudoscience

Erin Reed • @ErinInTheMorn • 2024-02-05 23:45:55 UTC

And please, subscribe to support my work. I may write yet another response to Pamela Paul given that she is using the platform of the New York Times to directly respond to me.

Maybe I'll just write to the times itself, actually.

Erin Reed • @ErinInTheMorn • 2024-02-05 23:46:18 UTC

Forgot to mention, you can subscribe to support my work and get all of my newsletters at
erininthemorning.com Subscribe to Erin In The Morning

His main point here is that Paul "claims it takes "courage to admit you don't know" detransition rates are (single digits), but in her original article... she falsely says 80%, citing decades old out of date data." He then includes a screenshot of one paragraph of Paul's article where she cites this figure. However, Tony neglects to include the following paragraph where Paul cites the figures that Tony prefers:
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Pamela Paul said:
Studies show that around eight in 10 cases of childhood gender dysphoria resolve themselves by puberty and 30 percent of people on hormone therapy discontinue its use within four years, though the effects, including infertility, are often irreversible.

Proponents of early social transition and medical interventions for gender dysphoric youth cite a 2022 study showing that 98 percent of children who took both puberty blockers and cross-sex hormones continued treatment for short periods, and another study that tracked 317 children who socially transitioned between the ages of 3 and 12, which found that 94 percent of them still identified as transgender five years later. But such early interventions may cement children’s self-conceptions without giving them time to think or sexually mature.

Again, Tony's just trying to whip up outrage to pressure New York Times editors to stay away from this topic.
 
Again, Tony's just trying to whip up outrage to pressure New York Times editors to stay away from this topic.
Sorry Erin, the woman who was born a woman won. It's not even because of her birth, it's because she is genuinely better at arguing with you.
I think the thread saying Zinna would shit himself if he saw a snake in person are correct.
 
Tony is misquoting Pamela Paul. Tony tweeted "She claims it takes 'courage to admit you don't know' detransition rates are (single digits), but in her original article... she falsely says 80%, citing decades old out of date data."

Paul is not claiming an 80% detransition rate. She specifies 80% is the percentage of kids whose gender issues resolve on their own during/after puberty. These are kids who never transitioned; they are not detransitioners.

He's probably correct that the data is old and outdated, but Tony and his fellow AGPs throw full-on toddler tantrums to get any new research canceled before it even begins. I don't think there is much (or any?) current or reliable data, which is the point Paul is making.

Edit: Regarding "holy shit good find." Certainly the whistleblower had her name removed from the Therapy First website (maybe only temporarily) because she doesn't want to be inundated with requests from desperate parents who want her to fix their transtrender ROGD kids, especially given that she is not currently practicing since she just resigned. I'm sure the contact info they had posted is now out of date. Removing her name is also probably to help prevent the poor shmuck who answers the phones at her previous clinic to avoid getting abused all day by the troon goon squad. That's my guess ayway. I doubt it is anything sinister. She doesn't seem to be hiding that she is a member of that organization. Therapy First was tweeting about her yesterday.


@TherapyFirstOrg

We are so proud to see Therapy First member Tamara Pietzke in
@TheFP today: "For six years I worked at a hospital that said all teenagers with gender dysphoria must be affirmed. I quit my job to blow the whistle".
 
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The Corinne Green person here was fired from a trans advocacy group for being too crazy, he's also been banned from ResetEra for the same reason. (Albeit, in general, being less stupid than most of their posters.) He was not banned from the latter for posts like this but for being too pro-Hamas:
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More about the troon gun:
edit: Also, Corrine Green has a type of legislative tracker thing so I've always wondered if he has ties to Tony.
 
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The Corinne Green person here was fired from a trans advocacy group for being too crazy, he's also been banned from ResetEra for the same reason. (Albeit, in general, being less stupid than most of their posters.) He was not banned from the latter for posts like this but for being too pro-Hamas:
View attachment 5698824View attachment 5698826

More about the troon gun:
edit: Also, Corrine Green has a type of legislative tracker thing so I've always wondered if he has ties to Tony.
"a lot more assault-y ... (trans colors aside)"
I'd argue that makes it come off more assault-y. Having the sexual predator pride flag on your gun screams at least one kinda assault happened under your dead name.
 
It may take courage to admit you don't know something, but Deacon, NFL Fantasy Commissioner, Trail Guide, Pharmacologist, Statistician, Cartographer, Reddit Community Moderator, Dungeon Master Erin Reed Phd (candidate) wouldn't know anything about that. He is an expert at everything he has ever come across. Checkmate TERFs.
 
"a lot more assault-y ... (trans colors aside)"
I'd argue that makes it come off more assault-y. Having the sexual predator pride flag on your gun screams at least one kinda assault happened under your dead name.
I think they'd understand that if it was a white guy tricking out his rifle in the Confederate flag. Then talking about defending his "community" with it.
 
The Corinne Green person here was fired from a trans advocacy group for being too crazy, he's also been banned from ResetEra for the same reason. (Albeit, in general, being less stupid than most of their posters.) He was not banned from the latter for posts like this but for being too pro-Hamas:
View attachment 5698824View attachment 5698826

More about the troon gun:
edit: Also, Corrine Green has a type of legislative tracker thing so I've always wondered if he has ties to Tony.
This guy is about as knowledgeable when it comes to firearms as Tony is when it comes to...well, everything.

Lefties have a habit of saying demonstrably stupid things with zero evidence behind them like they're sky-is-blue-tier facts, but adding the typical tranny narcissism to the mix makes it worse.
 
This guy is about as knowledgeable when it comes to firearms as Tony is when it comes to...well, everything.

Lefties have a habit of saying demonstrably stupid things with zero evidence behind them like they're sky-is-blue-tier facts, but adding the typical tranny narcissism to the mix makes it worse.
Despite working in "legal policy" as proclaimed in that post (and elsewhere, constantly, when this "job" was screaming about bills for a trans advocacy group) he constantly gets the law very wrong much like Tony. He has some posts where he demands Biden establishes martial law in states to stop the troon genocide.

That said, he's right about the incomprehensibility of gun regulations and shows a general ability to learn things like this, which is why I think he's ever so smarter than Tony and most Era posters.
 
I love how he talks about how she talks about the courage to admit you don't know the detransition rates, then immediately claims he does in fact know the rates. What's left unsaid this time is how his knowledge comes from those studies she referenced as being shoddy and linked to sources to explain her statement in more detail.

She was directly calling Tony out on that behavior, implying that he's an arrogant coward for claiming to have the all the facts. I love that Tony is too much of an arrogant coward to understand that callout.

I hope he does write to the Times. I hope this turns into a slap fight, because Tony is and will lose. And he'll peak the lefties right and left in the process.
 
She was directly calling Tony out on that behavior, implying that he's an arrogant coward for claiming to have the all the facts. I love that Tony is too much of an arrogant coward to understand that callout.
He is astoundingly bad to argue with. I've seen fucking Keffals come back with better quips (while bullying Gretchen Felkner-Martin), and I know other troons have had occassionally good and solid arguments. Not this guy. No wonder he hates giving anything but twitter speeches, if he gives a public argument he would be embarrassed by people who can think logical circles around him. He wouldn't care though, not until normies started agreeing with the other debater, THEN he'd be mortified.
 
Any troon that rapes has their trans status revoked. Look no further than Chris Chan.

Eh, I bet if we wasn't the most recorded weirdo in human history there'd be more people going to bat for "her." Afterall, opposition to incest is "eugenics" in some circles, even when one of the participants is a dementia ridden old woman.

:story: Transgender Expert Zinnia Jones: "I literally only care about the rights of single people and polycules to do drugs and make porn" :story:

If I wanted to caricature my enemies as nhilistic hedonists squandering the wealth of civilisation in a narccistic fantasy of being some kind of generation omega...
The Corinne Green person here was fired from a trans advocacy group for being too crazy, he's also been banned from ResetEra for the same reason. (Albeit, in general, being less stupid than most of their posters.) He was not banned from the latter for posts like this but for being too pro-Hamas:

There's a shocking number of "queers" who seem to think the moment Jews are ethnically cleansed from the Levant, all the Palestinians will turn into chubby brown corporate Memphis headscarf wearers and not fundamentalist Muslims.
 
Any troon that rapes has their trans status revoked. Look no further than Chris Chan.
The troons are pretty 50/50 on cwc.

Half of them are insistent on him lying about being a troon (something they said wasn't possible, respect their identity!) and half are like "whoa Chris Chan might be a rapist but that doesn't mean you can misgender her".
 
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Tony is playing fast and loose with the truth again. First and foremost, detransitioners and desisters were excluded from the survey.

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Second, the part Tony really doesn't want you to know about is that a full 21% of the sample said that they only had marginal improvement at best, or got worse. To me, this is a damning indictment of troonery.

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Tony is playing fast and loose with the truth again. First and foremost, detransitioners and desisters were excluded from the survey.
Welcome back to the thread! Archive of Tony's blog post: Over 90,000 Satisfied Responses In Trans Survey; Largest Detrans Survey Only Had 100 (archive; archive via Tor)

Yeah, the USTS is a mess. Honestly I think that it's main purpose is publicity for transgenderists. Also, as one of Jesse Singal's reply guys noted, as a satisfaction survey it can't tell us anything about the efficacy of (or rationale for) any kind approach or treatment. This is particularly true in the current context, where respondents probably felt psychological pressure to say they were very satisfied, as a way to push back against what they feel are unwarranted restrictions.
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@jessesingal, tweet 1755330070590210473 (archive; archive via Tor)
Brad Brown: Sure, although the bigger problem is that satisfaction surveys aren’t evidence of medical effectiveness even in the best of times. I remember a great Gorski / EBM article about homeopaths using satisfaction surveys instead of real evidence, but it was 2008-era and now lost.

Jesse Singal: yeah this is sorta the bigger point, and an often neglected one. patients have all sorts of reasons to say they're satisfied with a procedure. that's why you need EBM principles to actually measure this stuff.

Brown later linked this study, which found people who took homeopathic remedies showed high satisfaction, even though by definition they are at best placebos.

Van Wassenhoven M, Goossens M, Anelli M, Sermeus G, Kupers P, Morgado C, Martin E, Bezerra M. Homeopathy and health related Quality of Life: a patient satisfaction survey in six European countries and Brazil. Homeopathy. 2014 Oct;103(4):250-6. doi: 10.1016/j.homp.2014.08.005. Epub 2014 Oct 7. PMID: 25439041.
Homeopathy and health related Quality of Life: a patient satisfaction survey in six European countries and Brazil - PubMed (archive; archive via Tor)
 
So this is a bald faced lie. The 2015 transgender survey had an 8% detransition rate or roughly 2,217 respondents.

Screenshot 2024-02-07 210452.png


Going back a few days, I am fairly confident that this sentence right here triggered Tony's freakout on the New York Times. Pamela Paul correctly labeled Tony and Evan Uqahart as lunatic extremists, at least by implication.

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Brown later linked this study, which found people who took homeopathic remedies showed high satisfaction, even though by definition they are at best placebos.
You can find this kind of survey research for basically anything you want to confirm. I could literally design you a survey right now that would find this for smoking if I didn't assume the tobacco companies hadn't already done this probably a hundred times. There's surveys that "prove" ESP and energy fields and all kinds of other stuff simply because people believe they work. Psychology is especially awash in this stuff. It's funny Jesse blanked on it because he's got a few examples in his book, for example, power posing where while the most famous professor continues to insist it must work because surveys show it does.

People are too nice to say it but the priming for a survey of cult members is even easier than the general population. I suspect it wouldn't be hard at all to get troon surveys to return positive results for all kinds of absurd things if you wanted them to if you merely framed them in the proper language, you wouldn't even need to fake the data to get the answers you want.
 
Tony's posted a TikTok about the Pamela Paul article in the NYT.


AI-generated transcript:
Tony said:
By now, many of you may have seen the antitrans New York Times story. If you haven't, it's a doozy.

It's 4500 words long, and it's in the opinion page. Within moments of this story being published, it received a widespread distribution. Luckily, however, I caught it right when it happened, and I wrote a response that debunked it, which also has been spread widely.

So let's talk about this story and some of the key information that it gets incorrect.

So number one, this was an opinion piece. It clearly was not well fact checked, and any trans journalist who works in this field was able to very quickly identify the errors in the piece. We're going to start with ROGD. This is rapid onset gender dysphoria. Pamela Paul, who is the author of the New York Times story, states that rapid onset gender dysphoria might be what's causing everybody to be trans. In it, she cites a retracted study and a Lisa Littman study which recruited its sample from places like parents of ROGD kids. However, after publication, it was forcibly retracted and rereleased with a statement that said that the study no longer validates the idea of rapid onset gender dysphoria. It's not a real thing. Over 60 major psychological organizations have stated that there is no evidence for rapid onset gender dysphoria.

We then move on. And she claims that there was this therapist who was canceled widely because she wanted to take a more nuanced view on gender affirming care for trans youth. What actually happened? Well, you see, the particular therapist that she was referring to had previously stated that perhaps it would be correct to treat trans youth with acupuncture to see if they really like needles, and that maybe trans men should actually be given estrogen. These are cruel and coercive conversion therapy tactics. She wasn't trying to take a more nuanced view on gender dysphoria, she was proposing needles.

Another claim states that trans people might actually just be gay. And we can do away with that claim as well, because there have actually been studies on the sexuality of trans people post transition, and they've shown that 79% of trans people identify as LGB or Q after transition. If being trans is supposed to cure being gay, it is doing a remarkably poor job at it.

Lastly, and perhaps the most blatant falsehood in the article is the idea that eight in ten trans kids are going to turn back around from being trans. Or that another study shows 30% of all trans people are going to detransition and these numbers are not borne out by reality. You see that eight and ten number. It comes from Zucker 30 years ago. Data from a long time ago, from before we diagnosed gender identity by asking somebody if they identify as trans and if they feel gender dysphoria. You see, previously, gender identity disorder was also applied to tomboys and feminine gay boys. It wasn't about identifying as trans or wanting to be another gender, it was about behavior that they wanted to stamp out. Under modern diagnostic criteria, trans people persist at a rate of 97%. Detransition is very low according to most research, one to 3%.

Now I cover this very widely in my own already debunking it, which did get some traction, but I will never have as much reach as the New York Times. I hope that all of you can spread my work widely. People need to see the refutation.
"Luckily, however, I caught it right when it happened, and I wrote a response that debunked it, which also has been spread widely." :wow:, hero Tony, saving the day.

Usual nonsense from Tony, repeating the lies of his supposed "debunking". It is truly shameless for him to keep repeating his lies about Littman's ROGD paper having been retracted, as this can be checked in less than 2 minutes by reading the first paragraph of the republication notice, or even by searching for the word "retract" on that page or the paper's main page (zero results). It is so egregious at this point that any media personality or outlet who promotes Tony is perpetrating a fraud on their readers and should be dismissed with prejudice.

Edit: He's got another article in the Guardian, this time crying about trannies not getting their way on Iowa drivers' licenses, which apparently makes Iowa like Nazi Germany.

Republicans are redefining the word 'equal' in an Iowa anti-trans bill | Erin Reed | The Guardian (archive; archive via Tor)

Text:
Tony said:

Republicans are redefining the word 'equal' in an Iowa anti-trans bill​


Erin Reed

The bill would require transgender people to be identified on birth certificates, a measure some compare to 'pink triangles'

Thu 8 Feb 2024 11.10 GMT

On Tuesday afternoon, the Iowa house education committee met to debate House Study Bill 649 , a bill proposed by the Republican governor, Kim Reynolds. The bill, as drafted, would end legal recognition for transgender people anywhere "male" and "female" appear in Iowa code and would require special gender markers for transgender people on birth certificates, measures that were compared to "pink triangles" once used to identify LGBTQ+ people by Nazis in the 1940s. Perhaps the most ambitious attempt to discriminate against transgender people in the proposed legislation, however, is through redefining the word "equal" in the bill.

The bill states that when it comes to transgender people, "The term 'equal' does not mean 'same' or 'identical'," which raises the question: what does "equal" even mean? The bill does not define the word, only declares that "equal" no longer means "same" or "identical" within the state of Iowa for transgender people. When the sponsor was asked directly what the word "equal" means in this bill, the representative Heather Hora answered: "Equal would mean … um … I would assume that equal would mean … I don’t know exactly in this context."

If the bill’s own sponsor cannot define the word "equal" due to eliminating the word’s actual definition, how can she claim to have created the perfect definition for "man" or "woman" in Iowa law? In attempting to write transgender people out of all legal protections in Iowa through definitions, the state legislature seems poised to undermine the very concept of equality itself. That should be enough to shake all Iowans, regardless of their political stance on transgender issues.

The bill’s sponsor is not content with redefining the word equal, however; the bill goes on to proclaim that "separate" is "not inherently unequal". One opponent to the bill pointed to the cruel history of the doctrine of "separate but equal" and the attempt to revive that history with a new, Republican-condoned target. Though the new definition of the word "equal" and the revival of the "separate but equal doctrine" only applies to transgender people, the precedents that make up the bedrock of equality for all are threatened. Is it so important for Republicans to get a political victory against transgender people in the state that they are willing to go this far?

Equally important is the means by which the bill establishes transgender people as "separate". The bill mandates that transgender people be given unique identifiers on their birth certificates, outing them as transgender. Anyone born in Iowa who wishes to change their birth certificate after obtaining gender-affirming care would be forced to have both gender markers on their birth certificates, making their transgender identity obvious any time they use their birth certificate. This raises the question: why is it so important for the state to readily identify transgender people?

Forced identification has been used to harm LGBTQ+ people in the past. During the 1940s, Nazis required LGBTQ+ people to wear pink triangles to designate their status, including transgender people . Many of those who advocated against the Iowa bill showed up wearing such pink triangles to raise awareness of how they would be designated "separate" and denied equal protections.

The Republican representative Brooke Boden did not seem to take complaints about a special gender marker and forced identification for transgender people seriously. Instead, she replied disingenuously: "What I hear from the trans community is that they are proud to be trans, and I guess that that would be OK to identify it as that and make sure that your birth certificate represents those things," moving the bill to the full committee for a vote.

Despite heavy opposition with more than a hundred people who showed up against the bill, the house education committee passed it through on a party-line vote. With less than 24 hours’ notice, the bill had a hearing announced, was heard, and passed, leaving little time for the committee or the state to properly vet its staggering implications.

In the coming days, Iowa legislators will grapple with the meaning of words as this bill moves to the full house floor. Some will state that the bill is really merely about defining a "man" or a "woman". What they will not acknowledge, however, is that those definitions are misdirection, a magician’s trick to prevent you from realizing that it is the fundamental definition of equality itself that is at risk.

Erin Reed is a transgender journalist based in Washington DC. She tracks LGBTQ+ legislation around the United States for her subscription newsletter, Erin in the Morning
 
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