Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

In the early AM EST 14 February this was posted on Telegram to the rezident_ua channel:

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If true it means the AFU is collapsing, and Adveevka may turn into a rout.
 
This doesn't impress me. Taking revenge on old wrecked landing/cargo ships of so little value that the Russians left them parked out in the open around Crimea generates headlines in the press. But its of no military significance whatsoever.
Now what about that Kilo class sub that the ukrops supposedly damaged in a missile attack?
This isn't the Tirpitz.
They already sank the Moskva.
 
So they had their triumph already. No one is going to make a stamp for that ship now. This looks like a desperate "look we're still winning" move.

It's damage. But it's not damage of the war effort itself like we used to see in the earlier stages.
The Russian Navy was never the brightest tool in the shed, even if we go back in history and look at its predecessors.
 
UKRAINE TESTED DRUGS ON INFANTS AND PSYCHIATRIC PATIENTS FOR YEARS LIKE LAB RATS - chilling revelation of Ukraine's evil reveals that country's officials assisted Western Big Pharma in experimenting with strong anti-arthritis drugs on the elderly and babies not even a year old in a Mariupol, Donetsk Republic (ex-Ukraine) hospital's psychiatric ward.

Companies like Pfizer and AstraZeneca mentioned in the disturbing documents, further highlighting levels of hell Ukraine unleashed on people of Mariupol and Donbass in general, before its reunification and immediate growth with Russia.
This isn't the Ukraine doing it, I don't believe. America has been conducting these kinds of experiments since the 50's. When it was banned they tested it on prisoners, then foreign prisoners, then POW's then moved their operations abroad.

This looks like Ukraine was one of their many testing grounds. Very sad and dark part of history.
 
Peter Zeihan, the man famous for predicting the collapse of china for 30 years straight. Is coping about how the Ukranian army is simply lacking the means to transport information upwards. There is of course also the mandatory Tucker sperging included.
The movement he stops talking about geography he begins to beclown himself.
Several TG channels report, using that video you posted as proof, that the AFU position is cut in two in Avdeevka. In it the AFU are shelled in their US Maxxx Pro south of the Coking Plant and are facing towards the main supply route.
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Avdeevka officially split in two; supply routes to the Avdeevka coke plant are under fire control with only around 650m further away. The supply line to the city section is threatened with ATGM fire from two sides with around 1.3 km distance from either side.


How are the hohols taking it? Not well.
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Lol. The most bloodthirsty keyboard warriors. Note how they never seem to volunteer to fight....
Its a 40 year old landing and cargo ship originally built in Poland. It was heavily damaged in March 2022 during the Russian attack on Berdiansk with the captain of the ship among others being killed. Its been out of action since that time sitting in the water south of Crimea.

They sunk another ship (the Novocherkassk) in the same class that also had been heavily damaged in the same battle (Berdiansk) in 2022 on December 26, 2023. That ship was parked out of action on the eastern side of Crimea.

This doesn't impress me. Taking revenge on old wrecked landing/cargo ships of so little value that the Russians left them parked out in the open around Crimea generates headlines in the press. But its of no military significance whatsoever.

The drones and the anti-ship missiles are a real danger to the black sea fleet. Which is why the fleet was almost entirely relocated away from Crimea.

This was possibly just something that they could do to take media attention away from the missile strike on that military unit behind the lines this week and the various major setbacks that have occurred at the front.
Correct and we didn't see the ship go under like the little missile boat a week or two ago.

It was certainly hit and damaged but it was already damaged.
Invasion Update - 13 February 2024 - Day 720 of the Invasion

Donetsk Front - Russia pour forces into Avdiivka from the north to cut off Ukraine's only supply route for their stronghold's garrison​

Wow this is what I call top quality posting 😎
 
This isn't the Ukraine doing it, I don't believe. America has been conducting these kinds of experiments since the 50's. When it was banned they tested it on prisoners, then foreign prisoners, then POW's then moved their operations abroad.

This looks like Ukraine was one of their many testing grounds. Very sad and dark part of history.
This is a video from RIA Novosti someone posted in a private chat a few days ago.

Look at the companies doing the testing, and the language other than Ukrainian the paperwork is in. Your instincts are correct.
 
So they had their triumph already. No one is going to make a stamp for that ship now. This looks like a desperate "look we're still winning" move.

It's damage. But it's not damage of the war effort itself like we used to see in the earlier stages.
Sinking these old Polish ships is pretty pointless ultimately.

It’s not like Russia could use them for a 3000 man surprise invasion of Odessa anyways.

We’re seeing the emergence of a new kind of warfare where ships like this is just useless scrap metal. Big, armored Blitzkrieg breakthroughs or seaborne invasions are counterproductive in a war where you see what your opponent is doing in real time.

NATO of course is totally unprepared for this. Their upper echelons are full of generals who went to officer school in the 80-90ies and still think about the Fulda gap.

The younger ones grew up fighting farmers with AK’s (and still managed to get their asses kicked mind you.) and are totally unprepared for fighting a peer opponent.

The best thing NATO could do would be to disband, save a whole lot of money and rely on nukes for safety. Because in a conventional war against Russia, I doubt it would go the way they’ve been taught.
 
It's a headline for PR purposes. It was also directed by the US:

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With how many of these drones have already been captured by the Iranians, China etc. it’d be interesting to know how much information the different parties share with each other.

If they’d pass on some of the technical details to Russia, they’d be a lot closer to make possible countermeasures. Such as a EV drone following the Global Hawk drone. That’d be a real game changer and would remove one of the few advantages that the Ukrops do have.

Wouldn’t be surprised if something like that is already in the works, though who knows.
 
You can drag things out by strategically giving ground and sabotaging infrastructure.
You absolutely can do this. In fact it would be extremely good for Ukraine to do this. It would buy them a lot of time and stop the bleeding. However the AFU has fought extremely stupidly on this matter and frequently defended places well past the point where it would be a good idea to do so. So I doubt Ukraine will make the smart move on this one. I will say there is a logical if still bad reason Ukraine does this. It is about trying to make sure the west keeps supplying them.

And probably the man who might have open to doing this sort of thing has been replaced with Srysky a man who was probably partially picked for his unwillingness to surrender any amount of land ever.
Another russian ship down, are those mfers in the command of the fleet are just incompetent or those sea drones are too op and can't be countered? :thinking:
I do think the Black sea fleet should move to out of the Black sea if can do so or at least to somewhere along the Caucuses where it would be more difficult for the Ukrainians to reach. That may not be possible though. But drones are a real problem for Navies.

Granted this is a LAND WAR and the navy really doesn't matter at all. Unless,
guys we swear the Russian amphibious landing in Odessa is real this time.
Well, POW are usually exchanged 1:1. So since the Russians are taking many more prisoners than the Ukes, naturally the majority of them will never be traded back.
Ukraine has had difficulties finding enough POWS to trade and has been doing wacky shit. Stuff like trading political prisoners and they even tried to argue for trading the remains of Stolypin.

It's a headline for PR purposes. It was also directed by the US:
There is actually a very good reason for the US to do this. It gives them real training in Naval combat to some degree. Granted it is against a stupid target that isn't really defending itself but still a bit of training is better than nothing. China has not fought a Naval war ever, but the US has not fought a real Naval war since 1945 so it is also extremely rusty.
 
Black Sea Fleet is missing the tools and personal necessary to be a effective force currently especially with dealing UUV's. And that ain't gonna change for a long while.

The only smart move HQ has done so far the word from the grapevine has it. Was to move newer stock of missiles and other ammo under Sevastopol's remaining underground complex's that weren't destroyed and damaged by WWII. And surrounding of unfinished or abandoned area of bunkers and complex's
 
US has not fought a real Naval war since 1945 so it is also extremely rusty.
The US navy is a mess, full of diversity hires and kids who couldn’t make college or employment work for them.

But don’t worry, they’re focused on the important stuff! Like inclusion and equity:


And uncomfortable mattresses! https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-106819

In an age of hypersonic missiles and 24-7 battlefield awareness, I’m not sure that a confrontation with China would go the navy’s way.

Another thing entirely is that they haven’t sat down and reassessed what kind of changes need to happen for the navy to stay relevant.
 
On the merc side of things, Russians have been fine with Wagner guys with SS tattoos and prisoners fighting. So they likely take a pragmatic approach.

So likely what happens to a mercenary depends on his disposition and the disposition of the Russian leadership of whoever captured him.

This is pure theory, but I would assume that if a merc is co-operative and willing to switch sides, he won't get bulleted. If he goes full NAFO and causes trouble, I imagine he will be killed.
 
On the merc side of things, Russians have been fine with Wagner guys with SS tattoos and prisoners fighting. So they likely take a pragmatic approach.

So likely what happens to a mercenary depends on his disposition and the disposition of the Russian leadership of whoever captured him.

This is pure theory, but I would assume that if a merc is co-operative and willing to switch sides, he won't get bulleted. If he goes full NAFO and causes trouble, I imagine he will be killed.
More pragmatic to just keep them in the pow camp cause any, even if former, enemy combatant is a potential liability and a spy.
 
Is Russia building three modern ships in St Petersburg? This is a land war iirc.
This is a land war, but the Russian navy (the parts above water at least) has always been an afterthought, especially since geography basically requires them to have three. They probably want a stronger Baltic fleet as insurance against NATO doing something very stupid in the future.
On the merc side of things, Russians have been fine with Wagner guys with SS tattoos and prisoners fighting. So they likely take a pragmatic approach.

So likely what happens to a mercenary depends on his disposition and the disposition of the Russian leadership of whoever captured him.

This is pure theory, but I would assume that if a merc is co-operative and willing to switch sides, he won't get bulleted. If he goes full NAFO and causes trouble, I imagine he will be killed.
Shades of WW2: "our Nazis can whip their Nazis!" But actual Azov/Kraken/etc guys are, I think, too juicy a PR prize to be forgiven. (Also it's my understanding that Akmat kills them on sight.)
 
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