Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[World Famous Quasi Payer]

In regards to the Russian Strategy anything besides causing attrition is hidden by the Russian general staff. They haven't shown their hand other than that they have done a long attritional war. It could very well be that the idea is to attrition Ukraine until a certain point at which Russia will try to engage in Maneuver warfare and destroy Ukraine. Ukraine is losing resources they need and eventually something will snap. However it could also be that Russia intends to just grind out Ukraine to the very end slowly taking territory over the course of several years to end. Russia has kept this strategic decision veiled so that the west can't easily decide what to do.

I think a large part of the Russian strategy can be explained by a belief amongst the high command, and no doubt Putin himself, that the west (nato, the US, etc) will put boots on the ground in Ukraine and expand the war outside of Ukraine. We (the west) have done everything else short of that, and would have put boots on the ground if our leaders could have gotten away with it. This war is a global war and a defensive war for Russia. The fact this war is being fought with what amounts to Russia's cousins at best, and more likely their brothers doesn't change that.

One has to wonder when this failed proxy war to weaken Russia will end?

Maybe I'm just a deeply optimistic man, or a fool, or both; but I assume this war will end soon and within the year. Ukraine has lost too many men, be they native men or foreign volunteers. The only nation with the "political will" to send it's young men to die is the US, and the US is having issues recruiting during peace time already. Even financial aid is deeply unpopular with the key war-fighting demographics of the US. The handful of tanks/AFVs/artillery/drones/bombs/et cetera supplied to Ukraine have not only A) failed to turn the tide, but more importantly B) stripped NATO nations of equipment for their own domestic armies. And despite these "wunderwaffen" and the "massive losses", the Russians continue to take ground and capture objectives. Again, I could totally be wrong on this, and if clown world is anything to go by, I am; but it does seem like the war has entered its final stretch.

Hypothetically if someone in North America took an opportunity to enlist for the Ukrainian army, survive long enough to become a POW, could that become a way to work towards Russian citizenship?

No, all non-Ukrainian volunteers are consider mercenaries by the Russian government and are to be executed if captured.

 

[Napoleon III]

I think a large part of the Russian strategy can be explained by a belief amongst the high command, and no doubt Putin himself, that the west (nato, the US, etc) will put boots on the ground in Ukraine and expand the war outside of Ukraine. We (the west) have done everything else short of that, and would have put boots on the ground if our leaders could have gotten away with it. This war is a global war and a defensive war for Russia. The fact this war is being fought with what amounts to Russia's cousins at best, and more likely their brothers doesn't change that.

They have definitely prepared for this eventuality and they set up a much better and far more extensive mobilization system in case it happens. But I think a lot of the caution is about low Russian birthrates, and the extremely negative effects losing men has on the economy and long term health of the nation.

I would really like to know how America would deal with Russian lines of defence in Zaporizhzhia or the whole Ukrainian defensive network in Donbass.

They definitely would prioritize degrading the enemy's command and control ability since without it, it would be much more difficult for the enemy to perform counter-attacks but I think they would most likely get stuck in the back and forth that is positional warfare at some point since the enemy's AD and anti-ship capabilities are much stronger than that of Iraq's.

The funny thing about C&C is that Ukraine's was saved by Starlink. Ukraine would probably had/have more problems with it if Elon Musk and Starlink didn't save them. Which is funny because Ukraine complains about him very often.

I think the US would probably try and leverage it's air power as much as possible in one of these situation. Unlike Russia, America would accept a lot of aircraft losses and use the air power to the maximum extent possible. For example the US took 30 aircraft losses during the 1991 Iraq war. This would not be good for the US military long term but they'd still do it. My sense is though that it wouldn't be enough.

I suspect the US would also eventually accept a massive amount of casualties in order to try and win. The US is bad enough politically that politicians don't care about long term health of the country and there are enough people in high up places that don't really care if the US loses hundreds of thousands of men.

It also depends on whether you are talking about the Marine Corp or the Army. The US Army is an absolute mess, but the Marine is much more professional and is probably the best fighting force the US has. This includes Special Forces. Special Forces are far too fragile, arrogant and overconfident to do anything super useful and often the Marines would rescue them in Iraq.

In general I'd expect the lower ranked officers and NCOs to be extremely flexible and adaptive but a lot of the upper ranks to be really bad at their job

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

No, all non-Ukrainian volunteers are consider mercenaries by the Russian government and are to be executed if captured.

They announced early on that mercenaries aren't protected by the Geneva Convention but they've captured and released way too many foreigners for that execution bit to be taken seriously.

 

[blackjack101]

No idea if this was posted here but here we go.

https://t.me/RVvoenkor

Russian troops dealt a powerful blow to the military training ground of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in Selidovo and buried a bunch of soldiers
According to Russian telegram channels, during the strike there could have been up to 1,500 Ukrainian military personnel at the training ground who arrived for training and further transfer to Avdeevka.
Ukrainian journalist Igor Mosiychuk, without giving specifics, confirmed the arrival in Selidovo.
There has not yet been an official statement from representatives of the political authorities of Ukraine or the military leadership of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.

About the situation in Selidovo after a massive attack on the Ukrainian Armed Forces

The city is completely closed to entry and exit; there are many ambulances and corpse trucks near the landfill. According to available data, the enemy’s military leadership is completely at a loss. The number of losses is in the hundreds.

According to preliminary data, it was the 3rd assault brigade “Azov”, which was supposed to go to relieve the Avdeevka garrison, that fell under this distribution.

Our troops used several Iskander OTRK missiles with a cassette part and added the Smerch MLRS, also with a cassette part.

The SBU is raiding the city in search of our spotters.

In Selidovo, there's notable silence among Ukrainian media following a successful strike against Ukrainian Armed Forces reserves gathered by "General" Syrsky to alleviate the blockade of Avdeevka.

This silence marks four hours since the incident, with the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) showing frustration and local media going underground.

The strike represents a significant setback for Syrsky, recently appointed as commander-in-chief, as the operation to unblock Avdeevka was meant to be his first notable achievement. Rumors suggest over 500 Ukrainian soldiers were killed or wounded, a figure difficult to conceal given the wounded have been distributed across hospitals in the Dnepropetrovsk region.

The situation implies a wait for a diversion in the information space or the creation of one to distract public attention. The pattern suggests potential subsequent attacks on civilians by Zelensky's administration.

Source: https://t.me/yurasumy/13258

In Selidovo, the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) has begun searching for informants (those who disclosed positions to the Armed Forces of Ukraine).

The city is closed for entry and exit. Ambulances and hearses are traveling in groups.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian media outlets are still unsure how to respond to this. They are in complete shock and disarray.

https://t.me/yurasumy/13252

Тоби айоделе -Tboy
@TobiAyodele
SELIDOVO
SITUATION AT 15:00

Enemy TG channels indirectly confirm our missile strike on enemy personnel at the Selidovo training ground.

At the moment, communications and the Internet are completely cut off in the city. The city is closed for at least a day. According to the latest data, the removal of 200 and 300 units continues.

Very big losses at once. Hundreds killed and wounded. Perhaps this is the most effective missile strike since the beginning of the SVO.

The Ukrainians are assuming there are insiders that disclosed their locations, but I think maybe new Russian LEO satellites might have better SAR resolution than what they had before in identifying large number of troops massing up in certain locations.

https://youtu.be/pPvrL9xQy8o

https://youtu.be/R-Em66t1flk

I know that Russians are behind in electronics compared to the west and east so maybe improvement in electronics for their newest satellites might have helped them identify those locations than whatever satellites they used before. Russians can use OTH radars like Container that can identify aerial targets with their speeds and altitudes in which whatever locations they stop at they can give those coordinates to LEO satellites to confirm what aircrafts that were used. Assuming if Ukraine's F-16s truly are game changes and have avoided getting shot down by air defenses and Russian aircrafts. The Russians can coordinate the timing to launch missiles like iskanders at the aircrafts when they land and load on fuel and weapons.

 

[prolapsed_cranium]

The are large parts of Ukraine where everyone speaks Russian. Even Odessa.

Most of Ukraine speaks Russian. Holhol is a niche dialect

View attachment 5719171

Sounds like there's an American in that truck. Hope he makes sure to cup Bandera's balls while he's sucking cock in hell.

 

[geckogoy]

I could totally be wrong on this, and if clown world is anything to go by, I am; but it does seem like the war has entered its final stretch.

I think at best this is a turning of the tide. IE the line will start to move more in the future (in russia's favor obviously) but it won't be a massive break. You can drag things out by strategically giving ground and sabotaging infrastructure. They have a lot of ground left to give. You need a much bigger advantage in force than the russians apparently have to overwhelmingly win and run them down before new positions can be dug.

 

[Betonhaus]

I do believe Russia will move faster, but I don't think they will do the big rush that they did at the beginning of the military operation as they'll want to protect their logistics networks and ensure the land they take has been fully secured.

Although that depends on how much land Russia wants. If they only intend to secure the last few cities that are attacking cities they control and tidy up the border so it's easier to protect, we could shortly see Putin do an announcement with a massive Миссия выполнена banner behind him.

 

[SIMIΔN]

I wouldn’t call it tragic, it’s war.

They are dying for people who hate them.

Seems to me there'll be more and more Bakmuts and Avdiivkas until the Russians reach Kramatorsk and Slaviansk.

Better grind down the enemy capabilities in evacuated battlefields then streetfight in populated Odessa or Kiev

 

[Fapcop]

What are the rules on being a POW? Specifically, is it possible to demand to not be traded back? Ukrainian POWs are safe once they reach Russia, but being traded back means they’re at risk of either being sent back to the front for another go, or being executed for desertion.

Well, POW are usually exchanged 1:1. So since the Russians are taking many more prisoners than the Ukes, naturally the majority of them will never be traded back.

 

[make_it_so]

Sounds like there's an American in that truck. Hope he makes sure to cup Bandera's balls while he's sucking cock in hell.

At first I was wondering where you were getting this, but yeah rewatching it sounds like someone with an American accent keeps saying "coming hot" or something like that.

 

[Pаzuzu]

Another russian ship down, are those mfers in the command of the fleet are just incompetent or those sea drones are too op and can't be countered?

 

[Strix454]

Another russian ship down, are those mfers in the command of the fleet are just incompetent or those sea drones are too op and can't be countered?

Its a 40 year old landing and cargo ship originally built in Poland. It was heavily damaged in March 2022 during the Russian attack on Berdiansk with the captain of the ship among others being killed. Its been out of action since that time sitting in the water south of Crimea.

They sunk another ship (the Novocherkassk) in the same class that also had been heavily damaged in the same battle (Berdiansk) in 2022 on December 26, 2023. That ship was parked out of action on the eastern side of Crimea.

This doesn't impress me. Taking revenge on old wrecked landing/cargo ships of so little value that the Russians left them parked out in the open around Crimea generates headlines in the press. But its of no military significance whatsoever.

The drones and the anti-ship missiles are a real danger to the black sea fleet. Which is why the fleet was almost entirely relocated away from Crimea.

This was possibly just something that they could do to take media attention away from the missile strike on that military unit behind the lines this week and the various major setbacks that have occurred at the front.

 

[Total Annihilation]

Jannies on 4chan are something (An instrumental version of Under The Sea from The Little Mermaid is playing on both the /chug/ and /ugh/ threads).

 

[Father Fornicatio]

Most of Ukraine speaks Russian. Holhol is a niche dialect

Fun fact: Zelensky didnt speak Ukrainski and had to learn the dialect, he only knew how to speak Russki.

Does anyone has a good source for combat footage of the Russian side?, i looked on youtube but al i could find were Ukra heroics where it looked they killed political dissidents or PoW with drones, and i found some Russian ones but i cant stand the loud hardbass track or Sabaton knockoffs over every little clip. Would love to hear the sound of the weapons and the engines, also curious about tactics used by the Vodka warriors. No propaganda but raw unfiltered military autism,please.

 

[01169]

Celebrating the sinking of some random boat is cave nigger tier. This isn't the Tirpitz.

 

[Feline Supremacist]

For example the US took 30 aircraft losses during the 1991 Iraq war.

It's been pointed out elsewhere that USAF aircraft are nowhere near the level and state of readiness they were in 1991, and we can barely maintain the ones in service now, simply because the companies that manufactured certain but critical parts don't exist anymore (thanks to our retarded pork barrel policies when it comes to military procurement) so we've sourced them from China, with disastrous and fatal pilot results.

This, and many other examples like this, is why the US can't commit to fielding ground forces in the Ukraine/Russia conflict. If a Democrat wins the WH in 2024 they might do so anyway. They are that stupid, and won't care how many Americans soldiers die in a place and for a cause that has nothing to do with them.

 

[Romeo]

Invasion Update - 13 February 2024 - Day 720 of the Invasion

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Donetsk Front - Russia pour forces into Avdiivka from the north to cut off Ukraine's only supply route for their stronghold's garrison​

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Avdiivka, Donetsk Oblast - Day 131 of the Avdiivka Offensive

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Recap​

​

• Avdiivka (Russian transliteration: Avdeevka) is a large fortress town set up by the Armed Forces of Ukraine since 2014. Despite Russian advances into within the city's southern borders and the Promka Industrial Zone in December, Russia was unable to push through many of the strongholds Ukraine has set up to defend Avdiivka's borders, of which the most prominent stronghold is the Tsarska Okhota (En. Tsar's Hunt) Restaurant.
• However, Russian forces found an old pipe that led under the Tsarka Okhota (footage). In a surprise assault, Russian forces flanked the Ukrainian garrison in Tsarska Okhota from the north and the garrison surrendered in panic and confusion, while Russian forces storm into dachas in the southern parts of Avdiivka. With Ukrainian defenses crippled, Russian forces captured a destroyed missile base called Zenit southwest of Avdiivka. In addition, Russian forces re-entered Stepove in the north of Avdiivka, with heavy Ukrainian pressure on the Russian occupation that expelled the Russians in previous their attempts to hold Stepove.
• The Russian capture of Avdiivka is needed to stop shelling of the Russian-held provincial capital of Donetsk in the south that has been going for nine years, and would cement the loyalty of Donetsk citizens towards Russian rule, which is an objective of the Russian forces in the war.

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Locations​

​

Settlements​

• North of Avdiivka: Kamyanka, Krasnohorivka, Avdiivka Landfill Hill
• West of Avdiivka: Sjeverne, Tonenke
• Northwest of Avdiivka: Lastochkyne
• South of Avdiivka: Zenit Missile Base (labelled in red), Donetsk
• East of Avdiivka: Kruta Balka, Kashtanove

Routes and Landmarks​

• Avdiivka's borders are labelled in orange and white stripe.
• There is only one main supply route that Ukraine uses to supply or evacuate the city: Industrial Avenue (labelled as a thick lime green line).
  • If this route is cut, Avdiivka is isolated from Ukraine. The remaining Ukrainian garrison will be forced to use the Dirt Road to Sjeverne (labelled in a thin yellow line), which is under Russian fire control. In addition, the winter weather has made this road muddy, so it will be difficult to use vehicles on this road.
• The northwest of Industrial Avenue and Avdiivka as a whole is guarded by Ukrainian stronghold Avdiivka Coke Plant (labelled in teal), of which its difficulty may be compared to the Azovstal Plant in Mariupol.
• Northeast of Industrial Avenue is the Industrial Sector, or Private Sector, of Avdiivka, labelled in lime green.
  • There are many landmarks inside the Industrial Sector, such as the Gas Station on Industrial Avenue, the Construction Parts Plant, etc., but the main landmark to be focused on is the Automobile Depot (labelled).
  • Northeast of the Private Sector, you will cross the railway to reach an area full of dachas.
  • Beyond that is Avdiivskyi Quarry, of which it is filled up with water and formerly used as a lake and a beach for Donetsk residents.
  • West of the Quarry is Ivushka Dacha Area.
  • For this report, the Russian plan is to capture the dachas and western shorelines of the Quarry, and to cross the railway and the Private Sector to reach Industrial Avenue.
• Going down Industrial Avenue will lead you to the intersection with the Dirt Road towards Sjeverne. East of the intersection is the Avdiivka's main Railway Station, and is the central building of Avdiivka.
• South of the intersection is Khimki District (labelled in hot/troon pink), a Ukrainian fortress of commie-blocks that guards the south and southwest of Avdiivka, and is used as heights for the Ukrainian Army.

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Week 1 - 23-30 January - Ukrainian forces stabilize frontline, for now​

• Shocked at the Russian breakthrough in the southern parts of the city, Ukrainian forces swiftly sent reinforcements and launched counterattacks all across Avdiivka to push the Russian forces back. However, they only recaptured a series of positions northwest of Stepove and adjacent of the railway north of Avdiivka, (1) and were unable to expel the Russians out of southern Avdiivka.
• Nonetheless, the Ukrainian Army managed to stabilize the frontline as they managed to halt Russian advances from Kamyanka (northeast of Avdiivka) and from the Russian-held parts of Southern Avdiivka. (2) Russian forces were only able to make small advances along the railway towards the T-05-05 road, (2) the last positions south of the forest at the eastern outskirts of the city, (3) and positions southeast of Opytne (southwest of Avdiivka) until the section of M-30 bypass. (3)

23 January	26 January	29 January
1	2	3

• Desperate to alleviate the pressure put upon the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka, Ukrainian forces broke through the 2014 Russian Defensive Line around Horlivka (northeast of Donetsk) from Niu-York, (1) but were ultimately repulsed by the Russians several days later. (2)

30 January	4 February
1	2

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Week 2 - 31 January-6 February - Russian forces storm Avdiivka from the north​

Russian tanks attacking Ukrainian fortifications near Avdeevka, 6 February - Source: Pro-Russian outlet RVVoenkor​

Advancements​

In this timeframe, Russian forces intensified their assaults onto Avdiivka as the weary Ukrainian garrison are attacked from multiple directions in the pincer/cauldron that they are now entrapped in.

• North Avdiivka
  • Russian forces achieved another breakthrough in which they finally entered Avdiivka proper from the north with their quick seizure of Ivushka dacha area and reaching Zaliznychnyi Lane. As a result, Ukrainian forces in positions north of Avdiivskyi Quarry withdrew towards Avdiivka as they were now in a cauldron with Russian forces in Ivushka in the west. (1)
  • Following this withdrawal, Russian forces seized the initiative where following their capture of the northern shore of Avdiivskyi Quarry, they captured many streets in Avdiivka in a westwards assault and Raduga Dacha Area in an eastwards assault. (3, 4, 5)
  • The Ukrainian situation in Avdiivka is rapidly collapsing as Ukrainian forces guarding Industrial Avenue/Prospekt, the only main supply route into Avdiivka, found all their movements monitored by Russian forces. (i) Russian forces soon launched their assaults on the overpass over the railway (i), the last obstacle before they can cut off Industrial Avenue, with their advancements putting Industrial Avenue under direct fire of Russian artillery. (6)
• South of Avdiivka
  • The Russians advanced east of Opytne (southwest of Avdiivka) towards the Zenit missile base, of which Ukrainian forces continue attacking the positions of Russian troops in the ruins of the base for an entire week while under heavy artillery shelling by Russia. (2) These assaults finally amounted to a success as Ukraine managed to recapture most of the missile base and entrenched themselves within the base. (3, ii)
  • While Russian troops attempt to wrestle back control over Zenit, they managed to recapture the Hill 218 fortification northeast of Opytne which leaves the Ukrainian garrison in Zenit semi-encircled. (6)
• East of Avdiivka
  • Russian forces have crossed the H-20 highway and entered the forest area adjacently east of Avdiivka (48°08'25.8"N 37°48'00.2"E), intensifying the cauldron around the Ukrainian garrison in the Donetsk Filtration Plant in the southeast. (3)

(i) Russian drone filming Ukrainian soldiers hiding under an overpass over the railway. (48°09'32.9"N 37°43'24.2"E)	(ii) Russian artillery shelling Ukrainian soldiers entrenched in the Zenit missile base (48°05'55.9"N 37°45'25.5"E)

2 February - North of Avdiivka	2 February - South of Avdiivka	4 February - Central Avdiivka
1	2	3
4 February - North of Avdiivka	5 February - North of Avdiivka	6 February - Central Avdiivka
4	5	6

Reflection​

• The Avdiivka bottleneck is now under 4.3 km, with 20% of Avdiivka under Russian control. SuriyakMaps predicted that Avdiivka will fall to the Russians before the end of February.
  • Due to this, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Valerii Zaluzhnyi has pushed for evacuation from Avdiivka as the manpower and efficiency of the Ukrainian Army in this front has been dwindling. This also comes with the window for evacuation also quickly diminishing.
  • If Avdiika is abandoned, Ukraine could focus on building up their defenses northwest of Avdiivka, and save some of its manpower of the Avdiivka garrison from either being killed in action or being prisoners of war, at the cost of morale for losing the most powerful stronghold in the whole war.
  • However, this plan has led to conflict between Zaluzhnyi and President of Ukraine Volodymyr Zelensky, of which the latter is anxious for a Ukrainian victory following the failure of the 2023 Summer Counteroffensive to encourage and maintain constant funding of Ukrainian war efforts by Western nations.

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Week 3 - 7-13 February - Russia captures Industrial Avenue, the only safe supply/evacuation route Ukraine has for Avdiivka, effectively operationally encircling the city​

Ruins of Avdiivka in the perspective of Ukrainian troops - Source: pro-Russian outlet RVVoenkor	Russian forces shelling Khimki - Source: pro-Russian outlet RVVoenkor

Advancements​

• North Avdiivka
  • On 7 January, the Russian Army captured the railway overpass and several railway sections (as well as many dacha blocks along the way), putting Industrial Avenue under Russian fire control and leaving the Automobile Depot (48.15456466464795, 37.72327186322039) as the only obstacle in capturing the artery. (1)
  • With the main artery under Russian fire control, Zaluzhnyi is reported to give the go-ahead to evacuate the Ukrainian garrison from Avdiivka, with the first Ukrainian soldiers evacuating via a dirt road towards Sjeverne. Russia soon launched FABs at evacuating Ukrainian troops in that dirt road and areas adjacent to Industrial Avenue (Industrial Sector) to quicken Russian advances to capture Avdiivka. (1)
  • Russian forces soon launched offensive operations westwards to capture the Automobile Depot and the Alter Group LLC building to reach the Industrial Avenue while capturing more dachas eastwards. (2, 3) Ukraine started withdrawing its forces from the outskirts and North Avdiivka (including the southwestern shore of the Avdiivskyi Quarry Beach which subsequently fell to Russian control) towards the central parts of the city as Russian troops capture more dacha blocks to reach Avdiivka Railway Station. (2, 3, 4)
  • The Russians soon advanced across the railway and achieved partial control of the Automobile Depot, advancements that reach the Avdiivka Construction Parts Plant and the Avdiivka Railway Station, and a full capture of the dachas south of the railway overpass. (4, 5, 7)

  • Ukrainian soldiers shocked after learning Russia captured Industrial Avenue - Source: pro-Russian outlet RVVoenkor	Ukrainian reserves preparing to be sent to Avdiivka as reinforcements - Reposted in the thread here

  • Meanwhile, Ukrainian reinforcements appear to be heading to this front, possibly to the northern and southwestern flanks to hold the Russian assaults and reduce the pressure on the troops in the city as the Avdiivka garrison evacuate westwards towards Sjeverne. Russian FABs soon befell on the Khimik district, where evacuating Ukrainian troops entrenched themselves within the commie-blocks. (7)
  • Finally, on 13 January, the Russian forces fully captured the Automobile Depot and the gas station at Industrial Avenue, resulting in them reaching Industrial Avenue and cutting Avdiivka into two, separating the Ukrainian garrison in Avdiivka Coke Plant from the rest of the city. With the fall of the main artery, thousands of Ukrainian troops are trapped within Avdiivka with withdrawals to the west on dirt roads heavily impacted by direct Russian shelling and muddy due to the winter weather. (8 )
• South of Avdiivka
  • Russian forces restarted offensive operations in this front by advancing westwards towards the dachas adjacent to T-05-05 road and advancing eastwards from Opytne. (6, 8 ) This ultimately may spell doom for the Ukrainian garrison in the Zenit missile base, as their only path of withdrawal is a bottleneck that is very slim and long and prone to direct Russian shelling. Surrender is very likely.

7 February - North Avdiivka	8 February - North Avdiivka	9 February - North Avdiivka
1	2	3
10 February - North Avdiivka	11 February - North Avdiivka	11 February - South Avdiivka
4	5	6
12 January - North Avdiivka	13 January
7	8

Reflection​

• Avdiivka is now 35% under Russian control with Ukraine's situation deteriorating so much that Ukrainian propagandist Denys Davydov is now admitting the situation in Avdiivka is critical.
  • As was stated in the thread before, on 8 February, Zelensky sacked Zaluzhnyi as Commander-and-Chief of the Ukrainian Forces with one of the reasons being launching evacuation operations from Avdiivka against Zelensky's orders to hold Avdiivka as long as possible.
  • General Oleksandr Syrsky has now replaced Zaluzhnyi, as Zelensky hopes that his experience in leading Ukrainian troops in the successful 2022 Kharkiv counteroffensive and his loyalty to Zelensky into not questioning his orders such as holding Bakhmut despite mounting Ukrainian casualties (hence called "Butcher of Bakhmut") would hold Avdiivka to the best of his abilities.
  • Unfortunately for Zelensky, Syrsky remains committed to Zaluzhnyi's plan of withdrawal from Avdiivka and Ukrainian troops may soon be liberated from the prison city that is Avdiivka.

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Conclusion​

Ah shit, here we go again.​

• Many commentators and media alike are mostly leaning to the direction that the Battle of Avdiivka is now approaching its end and it will be most likely quicker than people may think. Russia's pace to capture Avdiivka is going at a fast rhythm similar to Wagner when they entered Bakhmut's city limits, and since Avdiivka is much smaller than Bakhmut, Avdiivka will most likely fall faster.​
• In Ukraine's situation, Zaluzhnyi and the Ukrainian military command unfortunately made their decision to evacuate Avdiivka way too late, as the only evacuation routes are dirt roads between Sjeverne/Tonenke and Avdiivka that is under direct artillery fire. Due to the extreme precarious situation that the Ukrainian garrison is in, they will either risk heavy casualties if they do withdraw or surrender to the Russians, especially for the Ukrainian troops still in Zenit missile base.​
• If most of the Ukrainian garrison end up surrendering, Ukraine's manpower in this front may collapse. With Avdiivka mostly freeing up the Russian Army of which a majority of their offensive operations is committed there, we may potentially see a Russian version of the Ukraine's Kharkiv offensive of which they will capture a lot of Ukrainian territory around Donetsk City since Ukraine is still readying up their defenses.​
• It is important for Ukraine to keep as many manpower as possible so that they can operate defenses behind Avdiivka, so it will be best if Ukrainian reinforcements and reserves push back the Russian forces southwest of Avdiivka so that the Ukrainians can withdraw safely on the dirt roads westwards.​
• With the fall of Avdiivka to Russia most likely unstoppable, loyalty to the Russian state from pro-Russian citizens living in Donetsk Oblast is assured, and Donetsk City will finally be liberated from Ukrainian shelling that has been ongoing for almost a decade.​

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Too Long; Didn't Read​

• Russian forces have stormed Avdiivka from the north, of which they captured the main and only supply route Ukraine has to supply or evacuate most of their garrison in Avdiivka. The city is now cut in two, with the Ukrainian garrison isolated from their stronghold of the Avdiivka Coke Plant and the ultimately the rest of Ukraine, resulting in the Ukrainian military launching evacuation operations from Avdiivka under heavy Russian shelling as Russia captures numerous city blocks. The fall of Avdiivka to Russia is not only inevitable, but as close as ever.

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Other Things to Note: Northeastern Front, other parts of the Donetsk Front, Bakhmut Front​

• It is perhaps that Russia replaced the incompetent officers responsible for the disaster in assaulting Synkivka in the Northeastern Front in January. Now, Russian forces have achieved much success by capturing more of the forests and from there, finally entering Synkivka and capturing many houses.
• West of Donetsk, Russian forces achieved much success in capturing more areas of Pervomaiske since January.
• Russian forces restarted assaults towards Pobjeda and Novomykhailivka southwest of Donetsk.
  • Russia finally re-entered Novomykhailivka and entrenched themselves within the dachas with Ukraine unable to expel them. 80% of the village of Novomykhailivka is now under control of Ukraine.
• West of Bakhmut, Russian forces fully recaptured the Popivske area.

These events will be more explained in the next report.

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Crediting most of what I have to SuriyakMaps (Telegram), which has been consistently neutral and reliable, and has been my main source for posting updates in the Russian Invasion of Ukraine and the Israeli Invasion of Gaza threads.

Previous update: https://kiwifarms.net/threads/russian-special-military-operation-in-the-ukraine.150029/post-17567987

Reliable Reporters I use:

• History Legends - Despite having a soyjak face in the thumbnails, his reports are neutral and reports both on Russian and Ukrainian successes and losses.​
  • Recent video on Avdiivka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J1GowkWE0RA​
• Willy OAM - Willy is a Pro-Ukraine/Pro-NATO reporter who is probably the first to be disillusioned that Avdiivka's fall to Russia is inevitable a week ago, and pro-Russians seem to sorta like him more despite the pro-Ukrainian lingo as he is more truthful in his reports.​
  • Recent video on Avdiivka: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eiw8_uItV6I​

 

[Legato]

Fun fact: Zelensky didnt speak Ukrainski and had to learn the dialect, he only knew how to speak Russki.

Does anyone has a good source for combat footage of the Russian side?, i looked on youtube but al i could find were Ukra heroics where it looked they killed political dissidents or PoW with drones, and i found some Russian ones but i cant stand the loud hardbass track or Sabaton knockoffs over every little clip. Would love to hear the sound of the weapons and the engines, also curious about tactics used by the Vodka warriors. No propaganda but raw unfiltered military autism,please.

You gotta get on telegram to get good stuff.

 

[biozeminadae1]

>NAFO
View attachment 5708217View attachment 5708218

Cheems deserves better.

 

[Fapcop]

Supposedly this is the site of yesterdays strike on Ukrainian reserves:



Looks like massive damage. And that’s only a part of it.