Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

[Napoleon III]

As for imports, if they can’t make it themselves, Russia just pays a little bit more and have it shipped through Georgia, Kazakhstan, etc.

This is the problem with sanctions especially with Russia being set up to handle them. There are so many ways to circumvent them especially because all the people you are relying on the enforce it make money off of exporting to Russia.

The other bit that helps is Russia and China actually have the capability to make a lot of stuff. They have both gotten much more autarkic which is useful if you have to fight a war.

F-16's were facing relatively contemporary AD systems as late as the mid-80's in Lebanon/Bekaa Valley and Desert Storm, possibly Kosovo, and came out ahead.

The F-16 was designed for SEAD and it is truly a great airframe. #FighterMAFIA It's so damn good that I'd say it is basically a 4.5 Gen fighter because some of the concepts involved in its design revolutionized fighter aircraft. That being said Ukraine is going to get the old and worn down airframes against the good air defense that are manned by actually competent people. So I will expect the F-16 to struggle quite a bit. Especially because whatever pilots fly them are going to be inexperienced. Plus Russia has S-400s now which are top of the line and very good.

It will be interesting and the funniest result after all of this back and forth about sending them or not sending them and training the pilots for like 18 months would be if the F-16s in Ukraine die really quickly and are basically worthless.

even though the SU-57's entry into service was delayed multiple times.

Better that it get delayed and work properly then it enter service not working correctly. The other thing is Russia isn't really an air power. They have high quality fighter jets but they don't try to make that one of their major strengths. Russia focuses on air defense for a reason. This hasn't been mentioned until super recently but Russia also spent a lot of resources on their nuclear arsenal. And it has some really impressive stuff in it. The Nuclear-powered Missile is crazy as are the hypersonics.

Russia's air industry is more mixed to negative honestly.

Russia lost a lot with the Fall of the Soviet Union which is to be expected quite frankly. But Russia has really recovered a lot of the Military Industrial infrastructure especially recently with this war. And after Russia wins this war there will be an economic boom. That type of thing usually happens after states win big wars. The war forces everything to be more efficient and then you get a lot of men who have dealt with hard problems(war) coming back and the labor force swells and things expand.

turbojet engines. Even China hasn’t quite mastered it yet.

This is a meme made by western commentators who didn't understand why China decided to make its engine parts in Russia. China is in many ways ahead of anyone else in regards to manufacturing for basically everything. China realized it would be quicker and cheaper to expand the Russian Infrastructure that already exists rather than build a completely new one. If you want planes now, this is what you need to do. Jet engines blades are difficult especially because they have to be single crystal but China is really good at manufacturing and they have made some inefficiently before.

Everyone seems to actually understand that the A-10 will stand no chance on the battlefield in Ukraine and losses will become unacceptable.

If you are Ukraine you want to take everything you can get. I also think part of it is that the Air Force wants to get rid of the A-10. Ukraine tries to get "old" western equipment or "old" soviet equipment and have the people they take from replace it with American stuff.

To be honest in this situation air superiority is a bit circular. If you get air superiority, almost all the enemy air defenses are dead and you can bomb shit with impunity. You have basically done 90% of the hard work of winning at that point.

I think CAS is going to go away quite frankly, but Air support is not. I think the future is the FABs and JDAMS. They are capable of being extremely precise and dropped far away from the actual combat position. They can also be dropped from very high up which helps with not being shot down. And they are extremely cheap. There is a reason Russia is dropping like a hundred FABs a day.

They treat it as some kind of fucking entertainment. Hope those "mercs" would die... along with homojournos.
Sorry for being mati, but that annoys me to no end.

There is something viscerally disgusting about the western response to this war. Treating Ukraine sending its men into a meat grinder as a Marvel movie is something out a horror story.

I remember a video that came out of this war and it was shared on twitter. It was a Russian soldier making the Sign Of The Cross and praying as his position was being shelled. NAFO took the opportunity to tear into and mock the poor soldier in a quite disgusting manner. But then it turned out that the soldier was Ukrainian which they should have known because the soldier was doing something Catholics do. None of them learned anything from this experience.

 

[make_it_so]

Clinton-era US General Wesley Clark has a simple solution by which Ukraine can utterly defeat the Russian Army and throw it back over the 1991 borders. They just need to learn the lessons of D-Day.

The US army had setbacks in 1942 and 1943. It wasn't capable in those years of winning in France. But by the time D-Day happened, they had it all figured out. All Ukraine has to is the same thing and they will absolutely defeat the entire Russian Army. Because if the US won in 1944, all Ukraine has to do is the same things and then can win now. Everything that happened in 2023 fits the world war II analogy so Ukraine can't lose.

What Ukraine Can Learn from D-Day

The three keys are "recon, rehearsal and deception".

Ukrainian forces must develop multiple attack points and deceive the Russians about the location of their main effort. They could gain air superiority largely with drones and long-range air defense—pending receipt of a few more Patriot systems, as well as additional enhanced technology in electronic warfare and drones.

Jesus tap-dancing Christ, where do I even begin?

The Allies were able to pull off D-Day due to a combination for four things. First, they had absolute control of the skies over northern France, so the Luftwaffe couldn't work against them, and the German ground forces couldn't move or reinforce without getting shot to hell. Second, they had conducted a very successful deception campaign that convinced the Germans that the landing would take place elsewhere. Third, very large American and British paratrooper landings established key points of control behind the enemy lines that disrupted German communications and helped secure a foothold. And finally - and perhaps most importantly - the Allies had an absolute manpower and material advantage over the defending Germans, so once the beachheads were secure they could just keep pouring in reinforcements that the Germans wouldn't be able to match.

"Drones" and a few more Patriot systems or whatever small handful of second-hand F-16s that Ukraine (might) wind up getting are not going to establish air superiority, period. The static line nature of the front and the mass amount of surveillance and intel that the Russians have access to precludes any kind of modern-day D-Day deception campaign. Paratroopers? How the fuck do they plan to get them there successfully? Not even Russia has been able to successfully use paratrooper assaults, even when they had the advantage of overwhelming surprise. And, of course, the big issue that every one of these geniuses keeps skipping over is the Ukrainian manpower issue. Ukraine is already sending out kids, retirees, women, and fucking cripples out to the front lines - their manpower situation is dire. Unless they can somehow force those millions of Ukrainians that fled West to come back (doubt), they're never going to get the manpower reserves they need to carry out a D-Day style offensive.

Oh, and one final note - Clark is the lunatic that wanted NATO to deploy nukes and basically start World War III in response to the Russians airlifting "peacekeepers" into Kosovo ahead of them, so for that reason alone no one should listen to him.

 

[Fapcop]

Russia also spent a lot of resources on their nuclear arsenal. And it has some really impressive stuff in it. The Nuclear-powered Missile is crazy as are the hypersonics.

Their ICBMs like the Sarmat are also impressive and well ahead of the ancient minuteman missiles the US has.

One of the reasons the US has to make a brand new ICBM system at considerable cost is that the instutional knowledge that went into the old ones is simply gone. The engineers that built them are all long retired or dead, and blueprints can’t replace that kind of resource.

The Russians kept theirs despite the breakup of the Sovietunion.

 

[Noto Bok]

Oh, and one final note - Clark is the lunatic that wanted NATO to deploy nukes and basically start World War III in response to the Russians airlifting "peacekeepers" into Kosovo ahead of them, so for that reason alone no one should listen to him.

Horrifying if true. Got a source for more info?

 

[Iron Jaguar]

And what lesson would that be, ally with the communists and wait until they've done most of the fighting for you?

No, it's "Do nothing in Britain and use chocolates and stockings to pay local women to fuck you, while all their men are dying in Europe."

@Fapcop
One of the reasons the US has to make a brand new ICBM system at considerable cost is that the instutional knowledge that went into the old ones is simply gone. The engineers that built them are all long retired or dead, and blueprints can’t replace that kind of resource.

Yes. Another reason is it gives the Military - Industrial Complex billions of taxpayer dollars to launder on behalf of their politicians.

 

[make_it_so]

Horrifying if true. Got a source for more info?

I must be misremembering the whole "deploy nukes" part or that was hyperbole repeated elsewhere, but given that Clark was straight up demanding that his subordinates "crush" and "destroy" the Russians at Pristina Airport for no real reason besides him just not wanting them there, deploying nukes probably is what would've wound up happening if the British hadn't told the fucktard to shove it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport

The whole Kosovo War was a fucking stupid bullshit war to begin with, and this rabid retard being in charge of it and then wanting to get into a shootout with the Russians afterwards was just the flaming turd atop the dumpster fire sundae.

 

[Meh123]

There are then other main downsides to an orbital nuclear warhead. The orbit will decay for starters, you also are then reliant on the orbit and being near/over your target when doing a burn to be able to redirect towards it. If your orbit decays too much, you need to account for recovery. There is then also the problem of the launch vehicles costing more, you won't be able to do maintenance and so on. There are overall a lot of downsides.

If I had to place launchers in orbit, I'd put them on geostationary. No boostback required, out of reach of most asat missiles and it's always "above" the target (quotes because above in the traditional way wouldn't make sense, see orbital mechanics)

Weaponizing space is a can of worms no nation is willing to open as of yet, fortunately (although I'm having doubts if neocons had the good sense to keep it that way if they had the means..)

Their ICBMs like the Sarmat are also impressive and well ahead of the ancient minuteman missiles the US has.

One of the reasons the US has to make a brand new ICBM system at considerable cost is that the instutional knowledge that went into the old ones is simply gone. The engineers that built them are all long retired or dead, and blueprints can’t replace that kind of resource.

The 8" floppy disks that used to launch them are decaying to dust, and they can't make replacements

 

[The Ugly One]

The whole Kosovo War was a fucking stupid bullshit war to begin with

The USA bombed a different foreign country every time a new Clinton scandal broke in the news.

 

[SaidNoOneEver]

The USA bombed a different foreign country every time a new Clinton scandal broke in the news.

100% true. Two names I heard for the very first time about a week apart: Monica Lewinski and Osama Bin Laden.

 

[Useful_Mistake]

Ukrainian forces must develop multiple attack points and deceive the Russians about the location of their main effort.

Surely he's joking. Nigger, that's literally the tactics every single fucking war has used since 771 BBC, or even earlier. Fucking Russia is using it, and the Ukrainians are using it. USA actually tried to convince Ukraine to not do this:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/

How can someone be this fucking unaware of what's happening and still recommend stuff so assuredly?

 

[Falcos_Commisar]

If a Russian plane is a few cents more expensive per seat in fuel, but it guarantees political independence (or cheap spare parts) that would be as much an incentive as having the best of the best.

Airplanes and jet engines are a very mature technology. The differences in new models vs. decade old models is a few percent

That fee percent is huge amounts of money in terms of fuel cost and passengers loads.

The entire reason the 737 Max and A320Neo exist are to squeeze 2-3% more efficiently from their airframes and engines.

Most countries don't care where airlines get their jets from.

Russian aviation also has a bad habit of bad after sales support. Ex. Spares, technical training, etc.

With the tragedy that is the Sukhoi Superjet 100, no. If Russia can't keep up with manufacturing planes and parts, what makes their plane, even if it as good as it gets, reliable (even in regards to economic viability)?

I would say Russian airliners themselves have the potential capabilities to be more reliable than Boeing and Embraer though. Beating Airbus though is like unreachable. Airbus has literally perfected all their aircraft to be as reliable as possible.

Ehhhhhhhhh no. Embraer and Boeing are beyond the Russians and Boeing is essentially equivalent to Airbus (missing bolts and MCAS nonwithstanding). Airbus also had flight control software kill an airliner full of people about 15 years ago but the EU ran cover for Airbus with that one.

But Russia threw their aircraft engine developers to the curb in favor of Western manufacturers, and that turned out to be disastrous in the long run, as Russian companies like Aviadvigatel lost its experience in building these aircraft engines and has to re-master making turbojet engines. Even so, since the more Russified version of the Irkut MC-21 has been constantly delayed, it shows that the Russian manufacturing industry still hasn't re-mastered their capabilities.

Yes, and Russian jets and jet engines are a solid generation behind Western ones. So they're No Sale jets in the USA, EU, rich East Asia and China.

They could make sales to some poor LATM, African and SEA airlines.

 

[Anasûrimbor Kellhus]

I must be misremembering the whole "deploy nukes" part or that was hyperbole repeated elsewhere, but given that Clark was straight up demanding that his subordinates "crush" and "destroy" the Russians at Pristina Airport for no real reason besides him just not wanting them there, deploying nukes probably is what would've wound up happening if the British hadn't told the fucktard to shove it.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Incident_at_Pristina_airport

The whole Kosovo War was a fucking stupid bullshit war to begin with, and this rabid retard being in charge of it and then wanting to get into a shootout with the Russians afterwards was just the flaming turd atop the dumpster fire sundae.

Don't forget this other gem from mr clark here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Knt3rKTqCk

This man is stupid and evil and will have lots to answer for in the next life.

 

[The Hardest R]

100% true. Two names I heard for the very first time about a week apart: Monica Lewinski and Osama Bin Laden.

Back in the day, they called it “wag the dog.” That was back then when it was somewhat okay to marginally criticize what a Democrat did that was blatantly illegal. They even made a movie about it. Crazy to think how much political discourse has collapsed in the last 25 years.

 

[Susanna]

the tactics every single fucking war has used since 771 BBC, or even earlier.

We actually have a year we can be reasonably confident about! A certain Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa (yes, THAT Marcus Vipsanius Agrippa) waged a campaign (with some very minor help from a Gaius Julius Caesar (no, not THAT Gaius Julius Caesar, the other one) in Illyria in 34 BCE. Hardly 771 BCE, but still an impressively early start for the concept of combined arms.

 

[Male Idiot]

I don't know, Boeing has as good a safety standard as any rusky or hohol plane... but at least Igor knows how to fly, he is just drunk. Shanequa and Dinduette are stunning and brave.

 

[Blewberry Nausea]

Id say that none is stupid enough to think that Putin would assassinate Macron but than again people think he blew up the pipeline so...

People in general don’t do research into things not directly affecting their lives. A good 60% will take the narrative wholesale. 30% will refuse the narrative wholesale. The rest will do varying levels of research.

 

[There Is Light At The End]

I don't know, Boeing has as good a safety standard as any rusky or hohol plane... but at least Igor knows how to fly, he is just drunk. Shanequa and Dinduette are stunning and brave.

and when plane crashed, you could hear a distant " das riiiiiiite" before explosion

 

[Overly Serious]

Surely he's joking. Nigger, that's literally the tactics every single fucking war has used since 771 BBC, or even earlier. Fucking Russia is using it, and the Ukrainians are using it. USA actually tried to convince Ukraine to not do this:
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/12/04/ukraine-counteroffensive-us-planning-russia-war/

How can someone be this fucking unaware of what's happening and still recommend stuff so assuredly?

But the USA's goals are not the same as Kiev's goals. The USA wants Ukraine to drive back Russia all the way out of the East, sure. But what they need is to take Crimea / Sevastopol. For the USA's goals, putting everything into a Southern push, if they've come to believe that they can no longer win in the East, makes sense.

Of course that hasn't worked either but your believe that it's strategically flawed may not be correct - Zelensky needs to not lose the East. USA would give it up if it meant Sevastopol. Or keeping Russia in a protracted state of conflict they can use to bankrupt Russia. (Also hasn't worked out but anyway...).

 

[The Ugly One]

Yes, and Russian jets and jet engines are a solid generation behind Western ones. So they're No Sale jets in the USA, EU, rich East Asia and China.

If most people understood how many resources and bright minds are wasted trying to meet another 0.01% reduction in government emissions allowances, they'd overthrow the government (jk they'd soyface for Taylor Swift watching her boyfriend score a touchdown).

 

[Useful_Mistake]