Russian Special Military Operation in the Ukraine - Mark IV: The Partitioning of Discussion

Overly Serious said:
But what really blows me away is that if the last test launch was in 2016 and that was a failure this means that for seven years, the British navy have been in the situation of not managing to repeat a failed test. A little maths - I don't know how many missiles we have but I see references with a quick search of having planned to purchase 65. Let us say the the proud kingdom of bongland has 50 such missiles. Now there could be all sorts of factors such as deliberately firing an older one or who knows that but lets keep it simple: the chance of firing one of 50 missiles and selecting the single dud one would be 1/50 (or 2%). Overwhelmingly it suggests there are likely more duds. But, BOTH of the missile tests in the last seven years were duds. Chance of randomly firing missiles and selecting the TWO duds would be 1/50 * 1/49 = approximately 0.04% or 2,500 to 1. It is vanishingly unlikely that there aren't numerous more dud missiles
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According to visual heuristics if two of the 50 missiles are duds then that would mean at minimum 23% of the missiles are duds. The seven year gap doubles the minimum number of duds to 46%. Since they didn't perform a second test immediately after the first failed, they deliberately chose to conserve their remaining missiles instead of confirming they work. It's possible that they had assumed they figured out why it failed and fixed it, but had failed to test for other issues. If the failure is the same, the number of duds double again to a minimum of 92% of the missiles being duds.
 
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Betonhaus said:
According to visual heuristics if two of the 50 missiles are duds then that would mean at minimum 23% of the missiles are duds. The seven year gap doubles the minimum number of duds to 46%. Since they didn't perform a second test immediately after the first failed, they deliberately chose to conserve their remaining missiles instead of confirming they work. It's possible that they had assumed they figured out why it failed and fixed it, but had failed to test for other issues. If the failure is the same, the number of duds double again to a minimum of 92% of the missiles being duds.
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I don't mean to tangent the thread but can you explain your workings to get to these numbers?
 
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Screenshot 2024-02-21 025047.png
 
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Stasi said:
Despite the best efforts of their politicians to ruin relations with Russia, the average Pshek is alright. To quote a random Russian political commentator I saw in TV one time "Poles? They like vodka and they work hard, just like us Russians. Good people".
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Polish farmers asking Putin to set an order about Ukraine, Brussels and the Polish government.
photo_2024-02-20_16-06-11.jpg

Polish police detained the farmer who hung a poster with an appeal to Putin and the USSR flag on his tractor.photo_2024-02-20_19-08-27.jpg

An Israeli citizen threw the Polish flag in the mud at the Hrebenne crossing with Ukraine during a farmers' demonstration

Those who witnessed the action held the Israeli accountable forcing to lift the flag and put it back.

Poland getting spicy about hohols now.
 
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Betonhaus said:
Visual heuristics.
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Yes, you said that in the post I was replying to. But I'm afraid I am still no closer to understanding how you came up with your numbers. Can you show your workings please? It's also not possible to set a guaranteed minimum for how many are duds from that information. Only probabilities.
 
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Feline Supremacist said:
Polish farmers asking Putin to set an order about Ukraine, Brussels and the Polish government.
View attachment 5741537

Polish police detained the farmer who hung a poster with an appeal to Putin and the USSR flag on his tractor.View attachment 5741543

An Israeli citizen threw the Polish flag in the mud at the Hrebenne crossing with Ukraine during a farmers' demonstration
View attachment 5741566
Those who witnessed the action held the Israeli accountable forcing to lift the flag and put it back.

Poland getting spicy about hohols now.
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Holy shit

REVOLUTION IS HERRREEEE
 
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Overly Serious said:
Yes, you said that in the post I was replying to. But I'm afraid I am still no closer to understanding how you came up with your numbers. Can you show your workings please? It's also not possible to set a guaranteed minimum for how many are duds from that information. Only probabilities.
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Visual. Heuristics. Numbers that look right.
 
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